Search Results (4,930)

Accurate streamflow forecasting at fine temporal and spatial scales is essential to manage the diverse hydrological behaviors of individual catchments, particularly in rapidly responding mountainous regions. This study compares three forecasting models ARIMAX, LSTM, and HEC-HMS applied to the Posina River basin in northern Italy, using 13 years of hourly hydrological data. While recent literature promotes multi-basin LSTM training for generalization, we show that a well-configured single-basin LSTM, combined with a rolling forecast strategy, can achieve comparable accuracy under high-frequency, data-constrained conditions. The physically based HEC-HMS model, calibrated for continuous simulation, provides robust peak flow prediction but requires extensive parameter tuning. ARIMAX captures baseflows but underestimates sharp hydrological events. Evaluation through NSE, KGE, and MAE shows that both LSTM and HEC-HMS outperform ARIMAX, with LSTM offering a compelling balance between accuracy and ease of implementation. This study enhances our understanding of streamflow model behavior in small basins and demonstrates that LSTM networks, despite their simplified configuration, can be reliable tools for flood forecasting in localized Alpine catchments, where physical modeling is resource-intensive and regional data for multi-basin training are often unavailable. Full article

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is experiencing higher warming rates than elsewhere, which may affect regional vegetation growth. Particularly on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP), where the topography is diverse and rich in biodiversity, it is necessary to clarify the drivers of climate and topography on vegetation cover. In this research, we selected the Shaluli Mountains (SLLM) in the ETP as the study area, monitored the spatial and temporal dynamics of the regional vegetation cover using remote sensing methods, and quantified the drivers of vegetation change using Geodetector (GD). The results showed a decreasing trend in annual precipitation (PRE) (−2.4054 mm/year) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (−0.1813/year) in the SLLM. Annual maximum temperature (TMX) on the spatial and temporal scales showed an overall increasing trend, and the regional climate tended to become warmer and drier. Since 2000, fractional vegetation cover (FVC) has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with an average value of 0.6710, and FVC has spatially shown a pattern of “low in the middle and high in the surroundings”. The areas with non-significant increases (p > 0.05) and significant increases (p < 0.05) in FVC accounted for 46.03% and 5.76% of the SLLM. Altitude (q = 0.3517) and TMX (q = 0.3158) were the main drivers of FVC changes. As altitude and TMX increased, FVC showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing. The results of this study help us to clarify the influence of climate and topography on the vegetation ecosystem of the ETP and provide a scientific basis for regional biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Full article

As urbanization processes are no longer characterized by simple linear expansion but exhibit leaping, edge-sparse, and discontinuous features, spatiotemporally continuous impervious surface coverage data are needed to better characterize urbanization processes. This study utilized GAIA impervious surface binary data and employed spatiotemporal aggregation methods to convert thirty years of 30 m resolution data into 1 km resolution spatiotemporal impervious surface coverage data, constructing a long-term time series annual impervious surface coverage dataset for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. Based on this dataset, we analyzed urban expansion processes and landscape pattern indices in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, exploring the spatiotemporal response relationships of ecological environment changes. Results revealed that the impervious surface area increased dramatically from 7579.3 km² in 1985 to 37,484.0 km² in 2020, representing a year-on-year growth of 88.5%. Urban expansion rates showed two distinct peaks: 800 km²/year around 1990 and approximately 1700 km²/year during 2010–2015. In high-density urbanized areas with impervious surfaces, the average forest area significantly increased from approximately 2500 km² to 7000 km² during 1985–2005 before rapidly declining, grassland patch fragmentation intensified, while in low-density areas, grassland area showed fluctuating decline with poor ecosystem stability. Furthermore, by incorporating natural and social factors such as Fractional Vegetation Coverage (FVC), Habitat Quality Index (HQI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), slope, and population density, we assessed the vulnerability of urbanization development in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. Results showed that high vulnerability areas (EVI > 0.5) in the Beijing–Tianjin core region continue to expand, while the proportion of low vulnerability areas (EVI < 0.25) in the northern mountainous regions decreased by 4.2% in 2020 compared to 2005. This study provides scientific support for the sustainable development of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration, suggesting location-specific and differentiated regulation of urbanization processes to reduce ecological risks. Full article

Hyperspectral remote sensing plays a crucial role in guiding and supporting various mineral prospecting activities. Combined with artificial intelligence, hyperspectral remote sensing technology becomes a powerful and versatile tool for a wide range of mineral exploration activities. This study investigates the effectiveness of ensemble learning (EL) algorithms for lithological classification and mineral exploration using EnMAP hyperspectral imagery (HSI) in a semi-arid region. The Moroccan Anti-Atlas mountainous region is known for its complex geology, high mineral potential and rugged terrain, making it a challenging for mineral exploration. This research applies core and heterogeneous ensemble learning methods, i.e., boosting, stacking, voting, bagging, blending, and weighting to improve the accuracy and robustness of lithological classification and mapping in the Moroccan Anti-Atlas mountainous region. Several state-of-the-art models, including support vector machines (SVMs), random forests (RFs), k-nearest neighbors (k-NNs), multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs), extra trees (ETs) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), were evaluated and used as individual and ensemble classifiers. The results show that the EL methods clearly outperform (single) base classifiers. The potential of EL methods to improve the accuracy of HSI-based classification is emphasized by an optimal blending model that achieves the highest overall accuracy (96.69%). The heterogeneous EL models exhibit better generalization ability than the baseline (single) ML models in lithological classification. The current study contributes to a more reliable assessment of resources in mountainous and semi-arid regions by providing accurate delineation of lithological units for mineral exploration objectives. Full article

This study analyzes spatiotemporal aridity dynamics in Central Kazakhstan (1960–2022) using a monthly Aridity Index (AI = P/PET), where P is precipitation and PET is potential evapotranspiration, Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and climate zone classification. Results reveal a northeast–southwest aridity gradient, with Aridity Index ranging from 0.11 to 0.14 in southern deserts to 0.43 in the Kazakh Uplands. Between 1960–1990 and 1991–2022, southern regions experienced intensified aridity, with Aridity Index declining from 0.12–0.15 to 0.10–0.14, while northern mountainous areas became more humid, where Aridity Index increased from 0.40–0.44 to 0.41–0.46. Seasonal analysis reveals divergent patterns, with winter showing improved moisture conditions (52.4% reduction in arid lands), contrasting sharply with aridification in spring and summer. Summer emerges as the most extreme season, with hyper-arid zones (8%) along with expanding arid territories (69%), while autumn shows intermediate conditions with notable dry sub-humid areas (5%) in northwestern regions. Statistical analysis confirms these observations, with northern areas showing positive Aridity Index trends (+0.007/10 years) against southwestern declines (−0.003/10 years). Key drivers include rising temperatures (with recent degradation) and variable precipitation (long-term drying followed by winter and spring), and PET fluctuations linked to temperature. Since 1991, arid zones have expanded from 40% to 47% of the region, with semi-arid lands transitioning to arid, with a northward shift of the boundary. These changes are strongly seasonal, highlighting the vulnerability of Central Kazakhstan to climate-driven aridification. Full article

With the global economic restructuring and the consequent population mobility, urban shrinkage has become a common phenomenon. The Qinling–Daba Mountains, a zone with a key ecological function in China, have long experienced population decline and functional degradation. Clarifying the dynamics and influencing factors of urban shrinkage plays a vital role in supporting the sustainable development of the region. This study, using permanent resident population growth rates and nighttime light data, classified cities in the region into four spatial patterns: expansion–growth, intensive growth, expansion–shrinkage, and intensive shrinkage. It further examined the spatial characteristics of shrinkage across four periods (2005–2010, 2010–2015, 2015–2020, and 2020–2022). A Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model was applied to examine core influencing factors and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The results indicated the following: (1) The dominant pattern of urban shrinkage in the Qinling–Daba Mountains shifted from expansion–growth to expansion–shrinkage, highlighting the paradox of population decline alongside continued spatial expansion. (2) Three critical indicators significantly influenced urban shrinkage: the number of students enrolled in general secondary schools (X₅), the per capita disposable income of urban residents (X₇), and the number of commercial and residential service facilities (X₁₂), with their effects exhibiting significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Temporally, X₁₂ was the most influential factor in 2005 and 2010, while in 2015, 2020, and 2022, X₅ and X₇ became the dominant factors. Spatially, X₇ significantly affected both eastern and western areas; X₅’s influence was most pronounced in the west; and X₁₂ had the greatest impact in the east. This study explored the patterns and underlying drivers of urban shrinkage in underdeveloped areas, aiming to inform sustainable development practices in regions facing comparable challenges. Full article

For further investigation of the properties of the muon component in the core regions of extensive air showers (EASs), a new underground hodoscopic set-up with a total sensitive area of 22 m² was built at the Tien Shan High Mountain Cosmic Ray Station. The hodoscope is based on a set of large-sized scintillation charged particle detectors with an output signal of analog type. The installation ensures a (5–8) GeV energy threshold of muon registration and a ∼${10}^4$ dynamic range for the measurement of the density of muon flux. A program facility was designed that uses modern machine learning techniques for automated search for the typical scintillation pulse pattern in an oscillogram of a noisy analog signal at the output of the hodoscope detector. The program provides a ∼99% detection probability of useful signals, with a relative share of false positives below 1%, and has a sufficient operation speed for real-time analysis of incoming data. Complete verification of the hardware and software tools was performed under realistic operation conditions, and the results obtained demonstrate the correctness of the proposed method and its practical applicability to the investigation of the muon flux in EASs. In the course of the installation testing, a preliminary physical result was obtained concerning the rise of the multiplicity of muon particles around an EAS core in dependence on the primary EAS energy. Full article

This article presents a comprehensive assessment of mudflow risk in the Talgar River basin through the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods and numerical modeling using the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) environment. The first part of the study involves a spatial assessment of mudflow hazard and susceptibility using GIS technologies and MCDA. The key condition for evaluating mudflow hazard is the identification of factors influencing the formation of mudflows. The susceptibility assessment was based on viewing the area as an object of spatial and functional analysis, enabling determination of its susceptibility to mudflow impacts across geomorphological zones: initiation, transformation, and accumulation. Relevant criteria were selected for analysis, each assigned weights based on expert judgment and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results include maps of potential mudflow hazard and susceptibility, showing areas of hazard occurrence and risk impact zones within the Talgar River basin. According to the mudflow hazard map, more than 50% of the basin area is classified as having a moderate hazard level, while 28.4% is subject to high hazard, and only 1.8% falls under the very high hazard category. The remaining areas are categorized as very low (4.1%) and low (14.7%) hazard zones. In terms of susceptibility to mudflows, 40.1% of the territory is exposed to a high level of susceptibility, 35.6% to a moderate level, and 5.5% to a very high level. The remaining areas are classified as very low (1.8%) and low (15.6%) susceptibility zones. The predictive performance was evaluated through Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of the mudflow hazard assessment is 0.86, which indicates good adaptability and relatively high accuracy, while the AUC value for assessing the susceptibility of the territory is 0.71, which means that the accuracy of assessing the susceptibility of territories to mudflows is within the acceptable level of model accuracy. To refine the spatial risk assessment, mudflow modeling was conducted under three scenarios of glacial-moraine lake outburst using the RAMMS model. For each scenario, key flow parameters—height and velocity—were identified, forming the basis for classification of zones by impact intensity. The integration of MCDA and RAMMS results produced a final mudflow risk map reflecting both the likelihood of occurrence and the extent of potential damage. The presented approach demonstrates the effectiveness of combining GIS analysis, MCDA, and physically-based modeling for comprehensive natural hazard assessment and can be applied to other mountainous regions with high mudflow activity. Full article

The mountainous rivers of Central Asia host diverse ichthyofauna threatened by increasing anthropogenic pressures, particularly water pollution, abstraction, and hydropower development. This study provides valuable morphometric and ecological data for Schizothorax eurycephalus (snow trout) and Triplophysa ferganaensis (stone loach) in the Shakhimardan River basin, Uzbekistan. S. eurycephalus exhibited positive allometric growth, while T. ferganaensis showed negative near-isometric growth. The mean Fulton’s Condition Factor was 1.0 for S. eurycephalus and 0.7 for T. ferganaensis, with site-specific variations. Strong correlations among morphometric parameters, particularly length–height relationships, support non-invasive monitoring techniques. Dietary analysis revealed S. eurycephalus was predominantly herbivorous, with around 70% algae consumption. Early sexual maturity was observed in S. eurycephalus males, whereas T. ferganaensis showed no clear maturity signs, but swollen bellies suggested ongoing or recent reproductive activity. These baseline morphometric and ecological data establish a solid foundation for future ecological assessments, conservation strategies, and the design and monitoring of mitigation measures to address anthropogenic impacts in this vulnerable region. Full article

The population dynamics of high-altitude mountainous areas are shaped by a complex interplay of socioeconomic and environmental drivers. Despite their significance, such regions have received limited scholarly attention. This research identifies and examines the principal determinants of population changes in the high-altitude mountainous zones of Sichuan Province, China. Utilizing a robust quantitative framework, we introduce the Sustainable Population Migration Index (SPMI) to systematically analyze the migration potential over two decades. The findings indicate healthcare accessibility as the most significant determinant influencing resident and rural population changes, while economic factors notably impact urban populations. The SPMI reveals a pronounced deterioration in migration attractiveness, decreasing by 0.27 units on average from 2010 to 2020. Furthermore, a fixed-effects panel regression confirmed the predictive capability of SPMI regarding population trends, emphasizing its value for demographic forecasting. We also develop a Digital Twin-based Simulation and Decision-support Platform (DTSDP) to visualize policy impacts effectively. Scenario simulations suggest that targeted enhancements in healthcare and infrastructure could significantly alleviate demographic pressures. This research contributes critical insights for sustainable regional development strategies and provides an effective tool for informed policymaking. Full article

To investigate the effect of Botrytis cinerea infection severity on the flavor characteristics of Petit Manseng noble rot wine, this study analyzed wines produced from Petit Manseng grapes grown in the eastern foothills of Helan Mountain, Ningxia, China. The grapes were categorized into three groups based on infection status: uninfected, mildly infected, and severely infected with Botrytis cinerea. Headspace solid-phase microextraction coupled with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (HS-SPME-GC-MS) and an electronic nose were employed to detect and analyze the aroma components of wines under the three infection conditions. Additionally, trained sensory panelists conducted sensory evaluations of the wine aromas. The results revealed that wines made from severely infected grapes exhibited the richest and most complex aroma profiles. A total of 70 volatile compounds were identified, comprising 32 esters, 17 alcohols, 5 acids, 8 aldehydes and ketones, 4 terpenes, and 4 other compounds. Among these, esters and alcohols accounted for the highest contents. Key aroma-active compounds included isoamyl acetate, ethyl decanoate, phenethyl acetate, ethyl laurate, hexanoic acid, linalool, decanoic acid, citronellol, ethyl hexanoate, and methyl octanoate. Sensory evaluation indicated that the “floral aroma”, “pineapple/banana aroma”, “honey aroma”, and “overall aroma intensity” were most pronounced in the severely infected group. These findings provide theoretical support for the harvesting of severely Botrytis cinerea-infected Petit Manseng grapes and the production of high-quality noble rot wine in this region. Full article

This paper investigates how governance frameworks shape sustainable tourism outcomes in protected areas by comparing Tara National Park (Serbia) and Triglav National Park (Slovenia). Both parks, established in 1981 and classified under IUCN Category II, exhibit rich biodiversity and mountainous terrain but differ markedly in governance structures, institutional integration, and local community engagement. Using a qualitative, indicator-based methodology, this research evaluates ecological, economic, and social dimensions of sustainability. The findings reveal that Triglav NP demonstrates higher levels of participatory governance, tourism integration, and educational outreach, while Tara NP maintains stricter ecological protection with less inclusive management. Triglav’s zoning model, community council, and economic alignment with regional development policies contribute to stronger sustainability outcomes. Conversely, Tara NP’s centralized governance and infrastructural gaps constrain its potential despite its significant conservation value. This study highlights the importance of adaptive, inclusive governance in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) within protected areas. It concludes that hybrid approaches, combining legal rigor with participatory flexibility, can foster resilience and sustainability in ecologically sensitive regions. Full article

Situated in the southern hilly-mountain belt of China’s “Three Zones and Four Belts Strategy”, Gannan region is a critical ecological shelter belt for the Ganjiang River. Decades of intensive mineral extraction and irrational agricultural development have rendered it into an ecologically fragile area. Consequently, multiple restoration initiatives have been implemented in the region over recent decades. However, it remains unclear how relationships among ecosystem services have evolved under these interventions and how future ecosystem management should be optimized based on these changes. Thus, in this study, we simulated and assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of five key ESs in Gannan region from 1990 to 2020. Through integrated correlation, clustering, and redundancy analyses, we quantified ES interactions, tracked the evolution of ecosystem service bundles (ESBs), and identified their socio-ecological drivers. Despite a 31% decline in water yield, ecological restoration initiatives drove substantial improvements in key regulating services: carbon storage increased by 6.9 × 10¹² gC while soil conservation rose by 4.8 × 10⁸ t. Concurrently, regional habitat quality surged by 45% in mean scores, and food production increased by 2.1 × 10⁵ t. Critically, synergistic relationships between habitat quality, soil retention, and carbon storage were progressively strengthened, whereas trade-offs between food production and habitat quality intensified. Further analysis revealed that four distinct ESBs—the Agricultural Production Bundle (APB), Urban Development Bundle (UDB), Eco-Agriculture Transition Bundle (ETB), and Ecological Protection Bundle (EPB)—were shaped by slope, forest cover ratio, population density, and GDP. Notably, 38% of the ETB transformed into the EPB, with frequent spatial interactions observed between the APB and UDB. These findings underscore that future ecological restoration and conservation efforts should implement coordinated, multi-service management mechanisms. Full article

In recent years, large-scale linear infrastructure developments have been developed across hundreds of kilometers of permafrost regions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The implementation of major engineering projects, including the Qinghai–Tibet Highway, oil pipelines, communication cables, and the Qinghai–Tibet Railway, has spurred intensified research into permafrost dynamics. Climate warming has accelerated permafrost degradation, leading to a range of geological hazards, most notably widespread thermokarst landslides. This study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution patterns and influencing factors of thermokarst landslides in Qinghai Province through an integrated approach combining field surveys, remote sensing interpretation, and statistical analysis. The study utilized multi-source datasets, including Landsat-8 imagery, Google Earth, GF-1, and ZY-3 satellite data, supplemented by meteorological records and geospatial information. The remote sensing interpretation identified 1208 cryogenic hazards in Qinghai’s permafrost regions, comprising 273 coarse-grained soil landslides, 346 fine-grained soil landslides, 146 thermokarst slope failures, 440 gelifluction flows, and 3 frost mounds. Spatial analysis revealed clusters of hazards in Zhiduo, Qilian, and Qumalai counties, with the Yangtze River Basin and Qilian Mountains showing the highest hazard density. Most hazards occur in seasonally frozen ground areas (3500–3900 m and 4300–4900 m elevation ranges), predominantly on north and northwest-facing slopes with gradients of 10–20°. Notably, hazard frequency decreases with increasing permafrost stability. These findings provide critical insights for the sustainable development of cold-region infrastructure, environmental protection, and hazard mitigation strategies in alpine engineering projects. Full article

Karst groundwater systems are critical to water supply and ecological sustainability in northern China, yet their heterogeneity poses challenges for flow characterization. The Yuquan Mountain (YM) Spring, historically a major karst spring in western Beijing, has experienced persistent drying, raising concerns about its recharge and flow mechanisms. This study integrates published isotope data, spatial distributions of Na⁺ and Cl⁻ as hydrochemical tracers, groundwater age estimates, and geophysical survey results to assess the recharge sources and flow pathways within the YM Spring catchment area. The analysis identifies two major recharge zones: the Tanzhesi area, primarily recharged by direct infiltration of precipitation through exposed carbonate rocks, and the Junzhuang area, which receives mixed recharge from rainfall and Yongding River seepage. Three potential flow pathways are proposed, including shallow flow along faults and strata, and a deeper, speculative route through the Jiulongshan-Xiangyu syncline. The synthesis of multiple lines of evidence leads to a refined conceptual model that illustrates how geological structures govern recharge, flow, and discharge processes in this karst system. These findings not only enhance the understanding of subsurface hydrodynamics in complex geological settings but also provide a scientific basis for future spring restoration planning and groundwater management strategies in the regions. Full article