Search Results (607)

Atmospheric warming results in increase in temperatures for the mean, the coldest, and the hottest day of the year, season, or month. Global warming leads to a large increase in the atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. Using the GISS-E2.1 climate model, we present the future changes in the coldest and hottest daily temperatures as well as in extreme precipitation indices (under four main Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)). The increase in the wet-day precipitation ranges between 6% and 15% per 1 °C global surface temperature warming. Scaling of the 95th percentile versus the total precipitation showed that the sensitivity for the extreme precipitation to the warming is about 10 times stronger than that for the mean total precipitation. For six precipitation extreme indices (Total Precipitation, R95p, RX5day, R10mm, SDII, and CDD), the histograms of probability density functions become flatter, with reduced peaks and increased spread for the global mean compared to the historical period of 1850–2014. The mean values shift to the right end (toward larger precipitation and intensity). The higher the GHG emission of the SSP scenario, the more significant the increase in the index change. We found an intensification of precipitation over the globe but large uncertainties remained regionally and at different scales, especially for extremes. Over land, there is a strong increase in precipitation for the wettest day in all seasons over the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. There is an enlargement of the drying patterns in the subtropics including over large regions around Mediterranean, southern Africa, and western Eurasia. For the continental averages, the reduction in total precipitation was found for South America, Europe, Africa, and Australia, and there is an increase in total precipitation over North America, Asia, and the continental Russian Arctic. Over the continental Russian Arctic, there is an increase in all precipitation extremes and a consistent decrease in CDD for all SSP scenarios, with the maximum increase of more than 90% for R95p and R10 mm observed under SSP5–8.5. Full article

African hydrological systems are incredibly complex and highly sensitive to climate variability. This review synthesizes observational data, remote sensing, and climate modeling to understand the interactions between fluvial processes, water cycle dynamics, and anthropogenic pressures. Currently, these systems are experiencing accelerating warming (+0.3 °C/decade), leading to more intense hydrological extremes and regionally varied responses. For example, East Africa has shown reversed temperature–moisture correlations since the Holocene onset, while West African rivers demonstrate nonlinear runoff sensitivity (a threefold reduction per unit decline in rainfall). Land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) are as impactful as climate change, with analysis from 1959–2014 revealing extensive conversion of primary non-forest land and a more than sixfold increase in the intensity of pastureland expansion by the early 21st century. Future projections, exemplified by studies in basins like Ethiopia’s Gilgel Gibe and Ghana’s Vea, indicate escalating aridity with significant reductions in surface runoff and groundwater recharge, increasing aquifer stress. These findings underscore the need for integrated adaptation strategies that leverage remote sensing, nature-based solutions, and transboundary governance to build resilient water futures across Africa’s diverse basins. Full article

Understanding the time-lagged response of land subsidence to groundwater level fluctuations and subsurface strain variations is crucial for uncovering its underlying mechanisms and enhancing disaster early warning capabilities. This study focuses on Dangshan County, Anhui Province, China, and systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of land subsidence from 2018 to 2024. A total of 207 Sentinel-1 SAR images were first processed using the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) technique to generate high-resolution surface deformation time series. Subsequently, the seasonal-trend decomposition using the LOESS (STL) model was applied to extract annual cyclic deformation components from the InSAR-derived time series. To quantitatively assess the delayed response of land subsidence to groundwater level changes and subsurface strain evolution, time-lagged cross-correlation (TLCC) analysis was performed between surface deformation and both groundwater level data and distributed fiber-optic strain measurements within the 5–50 m depth interval. The strain data was collected using a borehole-based automated distributed fiber-optic sensing system. The results indicate that land subsidence is primarily concentrated in the urban core, with annual cyclic amplitudes ranging from 10 to 18 mm and peak values reaching 22 mm. The timing of surface rebound shows spatial variability, typically occurring in mid-February in residential areas and mid-May in agricultural zones. The analysis reveals that surface deformation lags behind groundwater fluctuations by approximately 2 to 3 months, depending on local hydrogeological conditions, while subsurface strain changes generally lead surface subsidence by about 3 months. These findings demonstrate the strong predictive potential of distributed fiber-optic sensing in capturing precursory deformation signals and underscore the importance of integrating InSAR, hydrological, and geotechnical data for advancing the understanding of subsidence mechanisms and improving monitoring and mitigation efforts. Full article

Understanding soil infiltration at the watershed level is crucial to hydrological studies, as it significantly influences surface runoff, groundwater replenishment, and ecosystem sustainability. Research in this area—particularly employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)—has seen sustained scholarly interest, with an upward trend in related publications. This study analyzed 141 peer-reviewed articles from the Web of Science (WOS) Core Collection. By applying bibliometric techniques through CiteSpace visualization software, it explored the key themes and emerging directions in the use of the SWAT model for soil infiltration studies across watersheds. Findings revealed that this field integrates multiple disciplines. Notably, the Journal of Hydrology and Hydrological Processes emerged as two of the most impactful publication venues. Researchers and institutions from the United States, China, and Ethiopia were the core contributors to this area. “Land use” and “climate change” are currently the hotspots of interest in this field. There are three development trends: (1) The scale of research is continuously expanding. (2) The research subjects are diversified, ranging from initially focusing on agricultural watersheds to surrounding areas such as hillsides, grasslands, and forests. (3) The research content becomes more systematic, emphasizing regional coordination and ecological sustainability. Overall, the research on soil infiltration at the watershed scale using the SWAT model presents a promising and thriving field. This study provides researchers with a framework that objectively presents the research hotspots and trends in this area, serving as a valuable resource for advancing academic inquiry in this domain. Full article

Flow regulation and water quality maintenance are considered ecosystem services, as they provide environmental benefits with a measurable economic value to society. Distributed or semi-distributed hydrological models can help identify where land use decisions yield the greatest economic and environmental returns related to water resources. For these reasons, this study integrated simulations performed with the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model under varying land use conditions, aiming to balance potential benefits with the loss of ecosystem services. Among the tested parameters, those associated with surface runoff showed the highest sensitivity in simulating streamflow for the Jundiaí River Basin. Based on the statistical indicators R², Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS), and Percent Bias (PBIAS), the SWAT model demonstrated a reliable performance in replicating observed streamflows on a monthly scale, even with limited spatially distributed input data. Scenario 2, which involved converting 15% of pasture/agricultural land into forest, yielded the most favorable hydrological outcomes by increasing soil water infiltration and aquifer recharge while reducing surface runoff and sediment yield. These findings highlight the value of reforestation and land use planning as effective strategies for improving watershed hydrological performance and ensuring long-term water sustainability. Full article

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) developed the concept of Water Quality Volume (WQv) as a Best Management Practice (BMP) to treat the first 25.4 mm of rainfall in urban areas, aiming to capture approximately 90% of annual runoff. However, applying this urban-based standard—designed for areas with over 50% imperviousness—to rural regions with higher infiltration and pervious surfaces may result in overestimated facility capacities. In Korea, a uniform WQv criterion of 5 mm is applied nationwide, regardless of land use or hydrological conditions. This study examines the suitability of this 5 mm standard in rural catchments using the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF). Eight sub-watersheds in the target area were simulated under varying cumulative runoff depths (1–10 mm) to assess pollutant loads and runoff characteristics. First-flush effects were most evident below 5 mm, with variation depending on land cover. Nature-based treatment systems for constructed wetlands were modeled for each sub-watershed, and their effectiveness was evaluated using Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) and Load Duration Curves (LDCs). The findings suggest that the uniform 5 mm WQv criterion may result in overdesign in rural watersheds and highlight the need for region-specific standards that consider local land-use and hydrological variability. Full article

Land surface emissivity (LSE) is the most critical factor affecting land surface temperature (LST) retrieval. Understanding its variation characteristics is essential, as this knowledge provides fundamental prior constraints for the LST retrieval process. This study utilizes thermal infrared emissivity and hyperspectral data collected from diverse underlying surfaces from 2017 to 2024 to analyze LSE variation characteristics across different surface types, spectral bands, and temporal scales. Key influencing factors are quantified to establish empirical relationships between LSE dynamics and environmental variables. Furthermore, the impact of LSE models on diurnal LST retrieval accuracy is systematically evaluated through comparative experiments, emphasizing the necessity of integrating time-dependent LSE corrections into radiative transfer equations. The results indicate that LSE in the 8–11 µm band is highly sensitive to surface composition, with distinct dual-valley absorption features observed between 8 and 9.5 µm across different soil types, highlighting spectral variability. The 9.6 µm LSE exhibits strong sensitivity to crop growth dynamics, characterized by pronounced absorption valleys linked to vegetation biochemical properties. Beyond soil composition, LSE is significantly influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and vegetation coverage, emphasizing the need for multi-factor parameterization. LSE demonstrates typical diurnal variations, with an amplitude reaching an order of magnitude of 0.01, driven by thermal inertia and environmental interactions. A diurnal LSE retrieval model, integrating time-averaged LSE and diurnal perturbations, was developed based on underlying surface characteristics. This model reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) of LST retrieved from geostationary satellites from 6.02 °C to 2.97 °C, significantly enhancing retrieval accuracy. These findings deepen the understanding of LSE characteristics and provide a scientific basis for refining LST/LSE separation algorithms in thermal infrared remote sensing and for optimizing LSE parameterization schemes in land surface process models for climate and hydrological simulations. Full article

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes significantly affect hydrological processes in watersheds. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) model was employed to investigate the hydrological response to LULC changes in the İznik Lake Watershed, a region of significant environmental and social importance in the Marmara Region of Türkiye. This study provides a novel understanding of water balance dynamics of the İznik Lake Watershed through hydrological modeling. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated against observed monthly flow data from two gauging stations using three objective functions: Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), and the percent bias (PBIAS). The model was utilized to evaluate the impacts of LULC change on water balance components such as surface runoff, percolation, lateral flow, water yield, and evapotranspiration. The results revealed that the expansion of urban areas and reduction in forest land have led to an increase in surface runoff and a decrease in lateral flow and percolation, which in turn have impacted the overall water yield of the watershed. The findings of this study can inform land use planning and management decisions to mitigate the negative impacts of LULC changes on water resources in the İznik Lake Watershed and similar regions. Full article

Increasing forest destruction from land use and land cover change (LULCC) has altered catchment hydrological processes worldwide. This trend is also endemic to the Belize River Watershed (BRW), a significant source of land and water resources for Belize. This study aims to understand LULCC impacts on BRW hydrological responses from 2000 to 2020 by applying the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). This study identified historical trends in LULCC in the BRW and explored an alternative 2020 land cover scenario to elucidate the role of protected forests for hydrological response regulation. A SWAT model for the BRW was developed at the monthly timescale and calibrated on in situ streamflow using SWAT Calibrations and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP). The results showed that the BRW SWAT model performed satisfactorily for streamflow simulation at the Benque Viejo (BV) gauge station but performed variably at the Double Run (DR) gauge station. Overall, the findings revealed watershed-level increases in monthly average sediment yield (34.40%), surface runoff (24.95%), streamflow (16.86%), water yield (16.02%), baseflow (11.58%), and percolation (3.40%), and decreases in monthly average evapotranspiration (ET) (3.52%). In conclusion, the BRW SWAT model is promising for uncovering the hydrological impacts of LULCCs with opportunities for further model improvement. Full article

The Lijiang River Basin (LRB) is a karst ecosystem that presents unique challenges for agricultural land planning. Evaluating cultivated land suitability based on natural factors is critical for ensuring food security in this region. This study was based on the cultivated land distribution data of the LRB in the China Land-Use and Land-Cover Chang dataset, selecting 22 restriction factors across five dimensions: climate, topography, soil, hydrology, and social conditions, and the suitability of cultivated land (paddy fields and drylands) in the LRB was evaluated using the MaxEnt model to further identify the main restricting factors affecting the spatial distribution. The research showed that (1) For paddy fields, high-suitability areas covered 2875.05 km², medium-suitability 1670.58 km², low-suitability 3187.25 km², and non-suitable 9368.46 km². The main restriction factors were distance to villages, slope, surface gravel content, soil thickness, soil pH, and total phosphorus content. (2) For drylands, high-suitability areas covered 3282.3 km², medium-suitability 2260.93 km², low-suitability 4536.27 km², and non-suitable 6836.85 km². The main restriction factors were soil thickness, distance to roads, surface gravel content, elevation, soil pH, and soil texture. This research can provide a scientific basis for the layout of food security and planning agricultural land use in the LRB. Full article

The interaction between atmospheric moisture condensation (AMC) on leaf surfaces and vegetation health is an emerging area of research, particularly relevant for advancing our understanding of water–vegetation dynamics in the contexts of remote sensing and hydrology. AMC, particularly in the form of dew, plays a vital role in both hydrological and ecological processes. The presence of AMC on leaf surfaces serves as an indicator of leaf water potential and overall ecosystem health. However, the large-scale assessment of AMC on leaf surfaces remains limited. To address this gap, we propose a leaf area index (LAI)-derived condensation potential (LCP) index to estimate potential dew yield, thereby supporting more effective land management and resource allocation. Based on psychrometric principles, we apply the nocturnal condensation potential index (NCPI), using dew point depression (ΔT = T_a − T_d) and vapor pressure deficit derived from field meteorological data. Kriging interpolation is used to estimate the spatial and temporal variations in the AMC. For management applications, we develop a management suitability score (MSS) and prioritization (MSP) framework by integrating the NCPI and the LAI. The MSS values are classified into four MSP levels—High, Moderate–High, Moderate, and Low—using the Jenks natural breaks method, with thresholds of 0.15, 0.27, and 0.37. This classification reveals cases where favorable weather conditions coincide with low ecological potential (i.e., low MSS but high MSP), indicating areas that may require active management. Additionally, a pairwise correlation analysis shows that the MSS varies significantly across different LULC types but remains relatively stable across groundwater potential zones. This suggests that the MSS is more responsive to the vegetation and micrometeorological variability inherent in LULC, underscoring its unique value for informed land use management. Overall, this study demonstrates the added value of the LAI-derived AMC modeling for monitoring spatiotemporal micrometeorological and vegetation dynamics. The MSS and MSP framework provides a scalable, data-driven approach to adaptive land use prioritization, offering valuable insights into forest health improvement and ecological water management in the face of climate change. Full article

High-quality precipitation data are vital for hydrological research. In regions with sparse observation stations, reliable gridded data cannot be obtained through interpolation, while the coarse resolution of satellite products fails to meet the demands of small watershed studies. Downscaling satellite-based precipitation products offers an effective solution for generating high-resolution data in such areas. Among these techniques, machine learning plays a pivotal role, with performance varying according to surface conditions and algorithmic mechanisms. Using the Qinghai Lake Basin as a case study and rain gauge observations as reference data, this research conducted a systematic comparative evaluation of nine machine learning algorithms (ANN, CLSTM, GAN, KNN, MSRLapN, RF, SVM, Transformer, and XGBoost) for downscaling IMERG precipitation products from 0.1° to 0.01° resolution. The primary objective was to identify the optimal downscaling method for the Qinghai Lake Basin by assessing spatial accuracy, seasonal performance, and residual sensitivity. Seven metrics were employed for assessment: correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R²), standard deviation ratio (Sigma Ratio), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and bias. On the annual scale, KNN delivered the best overall results (KGE = 0.70, RMSE = 17.09 mm, Bias = −3.31 mm), followed by Transformer (KGE = 0.69, RMSE = 17.20 mm, Bias = −3.24 mm). During the cold season, KNN and ANN both performed well (KGE = 0.63; RMSE = 5.97 mm and 6.09 mm; Bias = −1.76 mm and −1.75 mm), with SVM ranking next (KGE = 0.63, RMSE = 6.11 mm, Bias = −1.63 mm). In the warm season, Transformer yielded the best results (KGE = 0.74, RMSE = 23.35 mm, Bias = −1.03 mm), followed closely by ANN and KNN (KGE = 0.74; RMSE = 23.38 mm and 23.57 mm; Bias = −1.08 mm and −1.03 mm, respectively). GAN consistently underperformed across all temporal scales, with annual, cold-season, and warm-season KGE values of 0.61, 0.43, and 0.68, respectively—worse than the original 0.1° IMERG product. Considering the ability to represent spatial precipitation gradients, KNN emerged as the most suitable method for IMERG downscaling in the Qinghai Lake Basin. Residual analysis revealed error concentrations along the lakeshore, and model performance declined when residuals exceeded specific thresholds—highlighting the need to account for model-specific sensitivity during correction. SHAP analysis based on ANN, KNN, SVM, and Transformer identified NDVI (0.218), longitude (0.214), and latitude (0.208) as the three most influential predictors. While longitude and latitude affect vapor transport by representing land–sea positioning, NDVI is heavily influenced by anthropogenic activities and sandy surfaces in lakeshore regions, thus limiting prediction accuracy in these areas. This work delivers a high-resolution (0.01°) precipitation dataset for the Qinghai Lake Basin and provides a practical basis for selecting suitable downscaling methods in similar environments. Full article

Surface water systems face unprecedented stress due to climate variability, urbanization, land-use change, and growing water demand—prompting a shift from traditional hydrological modeling to intelligent, adaptive systems. This review critically explores the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in surface flow management, encompassing applications in streamflow forecasting, sediment transport, flood prediction, water quality monitoring, and infrastructure operations such as dam and irrigation control. Drawing from over two decades of interdisciplinary literature, this study synthesizes recent advances in machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), the Internet of Things (IoT), remote sensing, and hybrid AI–physics models. Unlike earlier reviews focusing on single aspects, this paper presents a systems-level perspective that links AI technologies to their operational, ethical, and governance dimensions. It highlights key AI techniques—including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), Transformer models, and Reinforcement Learning—and discusses their strengths, limitations, and implementation challenges, particularly in data-scarce and climate-uncertain regions. Novel insights are provided on Explainable AI (XAI), algorithmic bias, cybersecurity risks, and institutional readiness, positioning this paper as a roadmap for equitable and resilient AI adoption. By combining methodological analysis, conceptual frameworks, and future directions, this review offers a comprehensive guide for researchers, engineers, and policy-makers navigating the next generation of intelligent surface flow management. Full article

A concise model, utilizing the threshold values of closed depressions, the convergence index, and the leaf area index (LAI) that play a significant role in modeling vegetation–atmosphere interactions and understanding the impact of vegetation on the hydrological cycle, was employed to pinpoint potential aquifer recharge centroids. The LAI index served as a geographic mask, linking centroid locations to soil vegetation cover. Analyzing a paired subsample of 500 centroids for each strata (true and false), we observed that maximum values of true centroids, indicating potential groundwater recharge, correlated with the presence of abundant vegetation (0.074 < LAI < 0.639). Conversely, lower LAI values were associated with sparse vegetation in false centroids (0.01 < LAI < 0.590). The study’s findings hold promising implications for aquifer management, biodiversity conservation, hydric planning, and land use protection, making a substantial contribution to the field. The recharge hypothesis is theoretically sound and empirically supported to propose that areas of high topographic convergence and closed depressions are potential water recharge zones, and these locations may exhibit permanent or denser vegetation, reflected as higher LAI values. This happens because water accumulates or lingers in these zones, soil moisture is maintained more consistently, and plant roots access water for longer periods, even during dry seasons. Vegetation becomes more resilient and persistent (possibly even forming phreatophytes—plants accessing groundwater). Additionally, there is potential for expanding the research by incorporating field observations, including tracking the routes of surface and subsurface runoff and determining arrival times to the aquifer. Such studies are increasingly vital for addressing contemporary environmental and water resource challenges. Full article

Floods result from intense and/or prolonged rainfall that exceeds the soil’s infiltration capacity, generating surface runoff and increasing river discharge. These events can cause substantial societal damage and may even lead to fatalities. In this study, we analyzed flood events in Lençóis Paulista, southeastern Brazil, between 2016 and 2024, by evaluating estimated precipitation and soil moisture conditions to develop a flood prediction index for the city. Precipitation estimates were derived from reflectivity data provided by the Bauru weather radar, while soil moisture estimates were obtained from the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model, operated at IPMet-Unesp. Although the index was not developed based on formal hydrological modeling or physical process simulation, the analysis of these variables within the Lençóis River sub-basins revealed that elevated soil moisture in the days preceding flood events was a key contributing factor. This is consistent with the increased susceptibility of wetter soils to surface runoff generation. Based on the identification of relevant variables, we developed the Flood Probability Index (FPI) using data from only nine flood events and applied it to classify the likelihood of flooding in the city. The index produced satisfactory results, highlighting its potential as a tool for flood prediction and early warning for the local population. Full article