Search Results (5,149)

Flash floods, exacerbated by climate change and land use alterations, are among the most destructive natural hazards globally, leading to significant damage and loss of life. In this context, the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI), which is a terrain and land surface-based model, and Google Earth Engine (GEE) were used to assess flood-prone zones across North Macedonia’s watersheds. The presented GEE-based assessment was accomplished by a custom script that automates the FFPI calculation process by integrating key factors derived from publicly available sources. These factors, which define susceptibility to torrential floods, include slope (Copernicus GLO-30 DEM), land cover (Copernicus GLO-30 DEM), soil type (SoilGrids), vegetation (ESA World Cover), and erodibility (CHIRPS). The spatial distribution of average FFPI values across 1396 small catchments (10–100 km²) revealed that a total of 45.4% of the area exhibited high to very high susceptibility, with notable spatial variability. The CHIRPS rainfall data (2000–2024) that combines satellite imagery and in situ measurements was used to estimate peak 24 h runoff and discharge. To improve the accuracy of CHIRPS, the data were adjusted by 30–50% to align with meteorological station records, along with normalized FFPI values as runoff coefficients. Validation against 328 historical river flood and flash flood records confirmed that 73.2% of events aligned with moderate to very high flash flood susceptibility catchments, underscoring the model’s reliability. Thus, the presented cloud-based scenario highlights the potential of the GEE’s efficacy in scalability and robustness for flash flood modeling and regional risk management at national scale. Full article

The shrubland ecosystems in arid areas are highly sensitive to global climate change and human activities. Accurate extraction of shrubs using computer vision techniques plays an essential role in monitoring ecological balance and desertification. However, shrub extraction from high-resolution GF-2 satellite images remains challenging due to their dense distribution and small size, along with complex background. Therefore, this study introduces a Feature Enhancement and Transformer Network (FETNet) by integrating the Feature Enhancement Module (FEM) and Transformer module (EdgeViT). Correspondently, they can strengthen both global and local features and enable accurate segmentation of small shrubs in complex backgrounds. The ablation experiments demonstrated that incorporation of FEM and EdgeViT can improve the overall segmentation accuracy, with 1.19% improvement of the Mean Intersection Over Union (MIOU). Comparison experiments show that FETNet outperforms the two leading models of FCN8s and SegNet, with the MIOU improvements of 7.2% and 0.96%, respectively. The spatial details of the extracted results indicated that FETNet is able to accurately extract dense, small shrubs while effectively suppressing interference from roads and building shadows in spatial details. The proposed FETNet enables precise shrub extraction in arid areas and can support ecological assessment and land management. Full article

Extreme precipitation events severely impact agriculture, reducing yields and land use efficiency. The spatiotemporal distribution of Total Column Water Vapor (TCWV), the primary gaseous form of water, directly influences sustainable agricultural management. This study, through multi-source data fusion, employs methods including the Mann–Kendall test, sliding change-point detection, wavelet transform, pixel-scale trend estimation, and linear regression to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of global TCWV from 1959 to 2023 and its impacts on agricultural systems, surpassing the limitations of single-method approaches. Results reveal a global TCWV increase of 0.0168 kg/m²/year from 1959–2023, with a pivotal shift in 2002 amplifying changes, notably in tropical regions (e.g., Amazon, Congo Basins, Southeast Asia) where cumulative increases exceeded 2 kg/m² since 2000, while mid-to-high latitudes remained stable and polar regions showed minimal content. These dynamics escalate weather risks, impacting sustainable agricultural management with irrigation and crop adaptation. To enhance prediction accuracy, we propose a novel hybrid model combining wavelet transform with LSTM, TCN, and GRU deep learning models, substantially improving multidimensional feature extraction and nonstationary trend capture. Comparative analysis shows that WT-TCN performs the best (MAE = 0.170, R² = 0.953), demonstrating its potential for addressing climate change uncertainties. These findings provide valuable applications for precision agriculture, sustainable water resource management, and disaster early warning. Full article

Wildfire regimes are closely linked to changes in landscape structure, yet the influence of accelerated land use transitions on fire activity remains poorly understood, particularly in rapidly transforming regions like central Chile. Although land use change has been extensively documented in the country, the specific role of the speed, extent, and spatial configuration of these transitions in shaping fire dynamics requires further investigation. To address this gap, we examined how landscape transitions influence fire frequency in central Chile, a region experiencing rapid land use change and heightened fire activity. Using multi-temporal remote sensing data, we quantified land use transitions, calculated landscape metrics to describe their spatial characteristics, and applied intensity analysis to assess their relationship with fire frequency changes. Our results show that accelerated landscape transitions significantly increased fire frequency, particularly in areas affected by forest plantation rotations, new forest establishment, and urban expansion, with changes exceeding uniform intensity expectations. Regional variations were evident: In the more densely populated northern areas, increased fire frequency was primarily linked to urban development and deforestation, while in the more rural southern regions, forest plantation cycles played a dominant role. Areas with a high number of large forest patches were especially prone to fire frequency increases. These findings demonstrate that both the speed and spatial configuration of landscape transitions are critical drivers of wildfire activity. By identifying the specific land use changes and landscape characteristics that amplify fire risks, this study provides valuable knowledge to inform fire risk reduction, landscape management, and urban planning in Chile and other fire-prone regions undergoing rapid transformation. Full article

In river-connected lake regions, both land use and hydrological regime changes may affect the ecosystem services; however, few studies have attempted to elucidate their complex influences. In this study, the spatiotemporal dynamics of eight ecosystem services (crop production, aquatic production, water yield, soil retention, flood regulation, water purification, net primary productivity, and habitat quality) were investigated through remote-sensing images and the InVEST model in the Dongting Lake Region during 2000–2020. Results revealed that crop and aquatic production increased significantly from 2000 to 2020, particularly in the northwestern and central regions, while soil retention and net primary productivity also improved. However, flood regulation, water purification, and habitat quality decreased, with the fastest decline in habitat quality occurring at the periphery of the Dongting Lake. Land-use types accounted for 63.3%, 53.8%, and 40.3% of spatial heterogeneity in habitat quality, flood regulation, and water purification, respectively. Land-use changes, particularly the expansion of construction land and the conversion of water bodies to cropland, led to a sharp decline in soil retention, flood regulation, water purification, net primary productivity, and habitat quality. In addition, crop production and aquatic production were higher in cultivated land and residential land, while the accompanying degradation of flood regulation, water purification, and habitat quality formed a “production-pollution-degradation” spatial coupling pattern. Furthermore, hydrological fluctuations further complicated these dynamics; wet years amplified agricultural outputs but intensified ecological degradation through spatial spillover effects. These findings underscore the need for integrated land-use and hydrological management strategies that balance human livelihoods with ecosystem resilience. Full article

This study assesses future agricultural drought risk in the Ganjiang River Basin under climate change and land use change. A coupled analysis framework was established using the SWAT hydrological model, the CMIP6 climate models (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), and the PLUS land use simulation model. Key methods included the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), travel time theory for drought event identification and duration analysis, Mann–Kendall trend test, and the Pettitt change-point test to examine soil moisture dynamics from 2027 to 2100. The results indicate that the CMIP6 ensemble performs excellently in temperature simulations, with a correlation coefficient of R² = 0.89 and a root mean square error of RMSE = 1.2 °C, compared to the observational data. The MMM-Best model also performs well in precipitation simulations, with R² = 0.82 and RMSE = 15.3 mm, compared to observational data. Land use changes between 2000 and 2020 showed a decrease in forestland (−3.2%), grassland (−2.8%), and construction land (−1.5%), with an increase in water (4.8%) and unused land (2.7%). Under all emission scenarios, the SSMI values fluctuate with standard deviations of 0.85 (SSP1-2.6), 1.12 (SSP2-4.5), and 1.34 (SSP5-8.5), with the strongest drought intensity observed under SSP5-8.5 (minimum SSMI = −2.8). Drought events exhibited spatial and temporal heterogeneity across scenarios, with drought-affected areas ranging from 25% (SSP1-2.6) to 45% (SSP5-8.5) of the basin. Notably, abrupt changes in soil moisture under SSP5-8.5 occurred earlier (2045–2050) due to intensified land use change, indicating strong human influence on hydrological cycles. This study integrated the CMIP6 climate projections with high-resolution human activity data to advance drought risk assessment methods. It established a framework for assessing agricultural drought risk at the regional scale that comprehensively considers climate and human influences, providing targeted guidance for the formulation of adaptive water resource and land management strategies. Full article

As urbanization accelerates and climate change intensifies, the ecological integrity of urban riparian forests faces growing threats, underscoring the need for a systematic framework to guide their sustainable management. To address this gap, we developed a causal framework by applying text mining and sentence classification to 1001 abstracts from previous studies, structured within the DPSIR (Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response) model. The analysis identified six dominant thematic clusters—water quality, ecosystem services, basin and land use management, climate-related stressors, anthropogenic impacts, and greenhouse gas emissions—which reflect the multifaceted concerns surrounding urban riparian forest research. These themes were synthesized into a structured causal model that illustrates how urbanization, land use, and pollution contribute to ecological degradation, while also suggesting potential restoration pathways. To validate its applicability, the framework was applied to four major urban streams in Seoul, where indicator-based analysis and correlation mapping revealed meaningful linkages among urban drivers, biodiversity, air quality, and civic engagement. Ultimately, by integrating large-scale text mining with causal inference modeling, this study offers a transferable approach to support adaptive planning and evidence-based decision-making under the uncertainties posed by climate change. Full article

Deforestation and land-use changes lead to significant soil degradation and erosion, particularly in Amazonian ecosystems, due to the region’s climate and geology. This study characterizes soil quality using physical, chemical, and biological parameters across different land uses. It uses a soil quality index (SQI) based on a minimum data set (MDS), from 19 evaluated parameters. The land uses evaluated were cacao monoculture (CMC), agroforestry systems associated with fruit and timber species (FAFS and TAFS, respectively), and a secondary forest. The SQI was composed of six variables, bulk density (BD), soil organic matter (SOM), urease activity (UR), pH, dehydrogenase activity (DH), and leaf litter, which are considered relevant indicators that allow for an adequate evaluation of soil quality. According to the SQI assessment, FAFS has a moderate-quality rating (0.40), followed by secondary forest (0.35), TAFS (0.33), and CMC (0.30), the last three categorized as low-quality. The methods used are replicable and efficient for evaluating changes in soil properties based on different land uses and management systems in landscapes similar to those of the Ecuadorian Amazon. Also worth mentioning is the potential of agroforestry as a sustainable land-use strategy that can enhance above- and below-ground biodiversity and nutrient cycling. Therefore, implementing agroforestry practices can contribute to long-term soil conservation and the resilience of tropical ecosystems. Full article

Climate change represents one of the main challenges of this century. The hazards generated by this process are various and involve territorial assets all over the globe. Hydrogeological risk represents one of these aspects, and the violence of rain precipitations has led experts to focus their interest on the study of geotechnical assets in relation to these dangerous weather events. At the same time, geospatial representation in 3D WebGIS based on open-source solutions led specialists to employ this kind of technology to remotely analyze and monitor territorial events considering different sources of information. This study considers the construction of a 3D WebGIS framework for the real-time management of geospatial information developed with open-source technologies applied to the dynamic mapping of precipitation in the metropolitan area of Palermo (Italy) based on real-time weather station acquisitions. The structure considered is a WebGIS platform developed with Cesium.js JavaScript libraries, the Postgres database, Geoserver and Mapserver geospatial servers, and the Anaconda Python platform for activating real-time data connections using Python scripts. This framework represents a basic geospatial digital twin structure useful to municipalities, civil protection services, and firefighters for land management and for activating any preventive operations to ensure territorial safety. Furthermore, the open-source nature of the platform favors the free diffusion of this solution, avoiding expensive applications based on property software. The components of the framework are available and shared using GitHub. Full article

To ensure water source security and sustainability of the national major strategic project “South-to-North Water Diversion”, this study aims to evaluate the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the ecosystem service value (ESV) in its water source area from 2002 to 2022. This study reveals its changing trends and main influencing factors, and thereby provides scientific support for the ecological protection and management of the water source area. Quantitative assessment of the ESV of the region was carried out using the Equivalence Factor Method (EFM), aiming to provide scientific support for ecological protection and resource management decision-making. In the past 20 years, the ESV has shown an upward trend year by year, increasing by 96%. The regions with the highest ESV were Garzê Prefecture and Aba Prefecture, which increased by 130.3% and 60.6%, respectively. The ESV of Xinlong county, Danba county, Rangtang county, and Daofu county increased 4.8 times, 1.5 times, 12.5 times, and 8.9 times, respectively. In the last two decades, arable land has decreased by 91%, while the proportions of bare land and water have decreased by 84% and 91%, respectively. Grassland had the largest proportion. Forests and grasslands, vital for climate regulation, water cycle management, and biodiversity conservation, have expanded by 74% and 43%, respectively. It can be seen from Moran’s I index values that the dataset as a whole showed a slight positive spatial autocorrelation, which increased from −0.041396 to 0.046377. This study reveals the changing trends in ESV and the main influencing factors, and thereby provides scientific support for the ecological protection and management of the water source area. Full article

Trachypteris picta (Pallas, 1773) is a significant pest that can cause serious damage to poplars and willows. To assess the impact of climate change on the suitable habitats of T. picta, this study conducted a comparative analysis of its global suitable habitats using climatic factors, global land use type, and global vegetation from different periods, in combination with the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results indicate that the annual mean temperature (Bio01), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11), precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), and isothermality (Bio03) are the four most important climate variables determining the distribution of T. picta. Under the current climate conditions, the highly suitable areas are primarily located in southern Europe, covering an area of 2.22 × 10⁶ km². Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat for T. picta is expected to expand and shift towards higher latitudes. In the 2050s, the SSP5-8.5 scenario has the largest suitable area compared to other scenarios, while the SSP2-4.5 scenario has the largest suitable area in the 2090s. In addition, the centroids of the total suitable areas are expected to shift toward higher latitudes under future climate conditions. The results of this study provide valuable data for the monitoring, control, and management of this pest. Full article

Microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an important indicator of soil organic carbon accumulation and loss and a key parameter in biogeochemical cycling models. Its regulatory mechanism is highly dependent on microbial communities and their dynamic mediation of abiotic factors. Land-use change (e.g., agricultural expansion, deforestation, urbanization) profoundly alter carbon input patterns and soil physicochemical properties, further exacerbating the complexity and uncertainty of CUE. Existing carbon cycle models often neglect microbial ecological processes, resulting in an incomplete understanding of how microbial traits interact with environmental factors to regulate CUE. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the microbial regulation mechanisms of CUE under land-use change and systematically explores how microorganisms drive organic carbon allocation through community compositions, interspecies interactions, and environmental adaptability, with particular emphasis on the synergistic response between microbial communities and abiotic factors. We found that the buffering effect of microbial communities on abiotic factors during land-use change is a key factor determining CUE change patterns. This review not only provides a theoretical framework for clarifying the microbial-dominated carbon turnover mechanism but also lays a scientific foundation for the precise implementation of sustainable land management and carbon neutrality goals. Full article

The rapid urbanization process has accelerated the degradation of ecosystem services (ESs) in peri-urban rural areas of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), leading to increasing landscape ecological risks (LERs). Establishing a scientifically grounded landscape ecological risk assessment (LERA) system and corresponding control strategies is therefore imperative. Using rural areas of Jiangning District, Nanjing as a case study, this research proposes an optimized dual-dimensional coupling assessment framework that integrates ecosystem service value (ESV) and ecological risk probability. The spatiotemporal evolution of LER in 2000, 2010, and 2020 and its key driving factors were further studied by using spatial autocorrelation analysis and geodetector methods. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, cultivated land remained dominant, but its proportion decreased by 10.87%, while construction land increased by 26.52%, with minimal changes in other land use types. (2) The total ESV increased by CNY 1.67 × 10⁹, with regulating services accounting for over 82%, among which water bodies contributed the most. (3) LER showed an overall increasing trend, with medium- to highest-risk areas expanding by 55.37%, lowest-risk areas increasing by 10.10%, and lower-risk areas decreasing by 65.48%. (4) Key driving factors include landscape vulnerability, vegetation coverage, and ecological land connectivity, with the influence of distance to road becoming increasingly significant. This study reveals the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of LER in typical peri-urban villages. Based on the LERA results, combined with terrain features and ecological pressure intensity, the study area was divided into three ecological management zones: ecological conservation, ecological restoration, and ecological enhancement. Corresponding zoning strategies were proposed to guide rural ecological governance and support regional sustainable development. Full article

Understanding alpine plants’ survival and reproduction is crucial for their conservation in climate change. Based on 423 valid distribution points, this study utilizes the MaxEnt model to predict the potential habitat and distribution dynamics of Leontopodium nanum under both current and future climate scenarios, while clarifying the key factors that influence its distribution. The primary ecological drivers of distribution are altitude (2886.08 m–5576.14 m) and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (−6.60–1.55 °C). Currently, the suitable habitat area is approximately 520.28 × 10⁴ km², covering about 3.5% of the global land area, concentrated mainly in the Tibetan Plateau, with smaller regions across East and South Asia. Under future climate scenarios, low-emission (SSP126), suitable areas are projected to expand during the 2050s and 2070s. High-emission (SSP585), suitable areas may decrease by 50%, with a 66.07% reduction in highly suitable areas by the 2070s. The greatest losses are expected in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Regarding dynamic habitat changes, by the 2050s, newly suitable areas will account for 51.09% of the current habitat, while 68.26% of existing habitat will become unsuitable. By the 2070s, newly suitable areas will rise to 71.86% of the current total, but the loss of existing areas will exceed these gains, particularly under the high-emission scenario. The centroid of suitable habitats is expected to shift northward, with migration distances ranging from 23.94 km to 342.42 km. The most significant shift is anticipated under the SSP126 scenario by the 2070s. This study offers valuable insights into the distribution dynamics of L. nanum and other alpine species under the context of climate change. From a conservation perspective, it is recommended to prioritize the protection and restoration of vegetation in key habitat patches or potential migration corridors, restrict overgrazing and infrastructure development, and maintain genetic diversity and dispersal capacity through assisted migration and population genetic monitoring when necessary. These measures aim to provide a robust scientific foundation for the comprehensive conservation and sustainable management of the grassland ecosystem on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Full article

Landslides are among the most hazardous natural phenomena affecting Greater Abidjan, causing significant economic and social damage. Strategic planning supported by geographic information systems (GIS) can help mitigate potential losses and enhance disaster resilience. This study evaluates landslide susceptibility using logistic regression and frequency ratio models. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising 54 mapped landslide scarps collected from June 2015 to July 2023, along with 16 thematic predictor variables, including altitude, slope, aspect, profile curvature, plan curvature, drainage area, distance to the drainage network, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and an urban-related layer. A high-resolution (5-m) digital elevation model (DEM), derived from multiple data sources, supports the spatial analysis. The landslide inventory was randomly divided into two subsets: 80% for model calibration and 20% for validation. After optimization and statistical testing, the selected thematic layers were integrated to produce a susceptibility map. The results indicate that 6.3% (0.7 km²) of the study area is classified as very highly susceptible. The proportion of the sample (61.2%) in this class had a frequency ratio estimated to be 20.2. Among the predictive indicators, altitude, slope, SE, S, NW, and NDVI were found to have a positive impact on landslide occurrence. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), demonstrating strong predictive capability. These findings can support informed land-use planning and risk reduction strategies in urban areas. Furthermore, the prediction model should be communicated to and understood by local authorities to facilitate disaster management. The cost function was adopted as a novel approach to delineate hazardous zones. Considering the landslide inventory period, the increasing hazard due to climate change, and the intensification of human activities, a reasoned choice of sample size was made. This informed decision enabled the production of an updated prediction map. Optimal thresholds were then derived to classify areas into high- and low-susceptibility categories. The prediction map will be useful to planners in helping them make decisions and implement protective measures. Full article