Search Results (1,343)

Mining (1) operations in remote areas (2) face significant challenges related to energy supply, high fuel costs, and limited infrastructure. This study investigates the potential for achieving energy independence (3) and resilience (4) in such environments through the integration of renewable energy sources (5) and battery–electric mining equipment. Using the “Studena Vrila” underground bauxite mine as a case study, a comprehensive techno-economic and environmental analysis was conducted across three development models. These models explore incremental scenarios of solar and wind energy adoption combined with electrification of mobile machinery. The methodology includes calculating levelized cost of energy (LCOE), return on investment (ROI), and greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions under each scenario. Results demonstrate that a full transition to RES and electric machinery can reduce diesel consumption by 100%, achieve annual savings of EUR 149,814, and cut GHG emissions by over 1.7 million kg CO₂-eq. While initial capital costs are high, all models yield a positive Net Present Value (NPV), confirming long-term economic viability. This research provides a replicable framework for decarbonizing mining operations in off-grid and infrastructure-limited regions. Full article

The cement industry is a significant contributor to global carbon dioxide emissions, primarily due to the energy demands of its production process and its reliance on clinker, a material formed through the high-temperature calcination of limestone. Strategies to reduce emissions include the adoption of low-carbon fuels, the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and the integration of supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) to reduce the clinker content. The effectiveness of these measures depends on a complex set of interactions involving technological feasibility, market dynamics, and regulatory frameworks. This study presents a system dynamics model designed to assess how various decarbonization approaches influence long-term emission trends within the cement industry. The model accounts for supply chains, production technologies, market adoption rates, and changes in cement production costs. This study then analyzes a number of scenarios where there is large-scale sustained investment in each of three carbon mitigation strategies. The results show that CCS by itself allows the cement industry to achieve carbon neutrality, but the high capital investment results in a large cost increase for cement. A combined approach using alternative fuels and SCMs was found to achieve a large carbon reduction without a sustained increase in cement prices, highlighting the trade-offs between cost, effectiveness, and system-wide interactions. Full article

This study assesses future agricultural drought risk in the Ganjiang River Basin under climate change and land use change. A coupled analysis framework was established using the SWAT hydrological model, the CMIP6 climate models (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), and the PLUS land use simulation model. Key methods included the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), travel time theory for drought event identification and duration analysis, Mann–Kendall trend test, and the Pettitt change-point test to examine soil moisture dynamics from 2027 to 2100. The results indicate that the CMIP6 ensemble performs excellently in temperature simulations, with a correlation coefficient of R² = 0.89 and a root mean square error of RMSE = 1.2 °C, compared to the observational data. The MMM-Best model also performs well in precipitation simulations, with R² = 0.82 and RMSE = 15.3 mm, compared to observational data. Land use changes between 2000 and 2020 showed a decrease in forestland (−3.2%), grassland (−2.8%), and construction land (−1.5%), with an increase in water (4.8%) and unused land (2.7%). Under all emission scenarios, the SSMI values fluctuate with standard deviations of 0.85 (SSP1-2.6), 1.12 (SSP2-4.5), and 1.34 (SSP5-8.5), with the strongest drought intensity observed under SSP5-8.5 (minimum SSMI = −2.8). Drought events exhibited spatial and temporal heterogeneity across scenarios, with drought-affected areas ranging from 25% (SSP1-2.6) to 45% (SSP5-8.5) of the basin. Notably, abrupt changes in soil moisture under SSP5-8.5 occurred earlier (2045–2050) due to intensified land use change, indicating strong human influence on hydrological cycles. This study integrated the CMIP6 climate projections with high-resolution human activity data to advance drought risk assessment methods. It established a framework for assessing agricultural drought risk at the regional scale that comprehensively considers climate and human influences, providing targeted guidance for the formulation of adaptive water resource and land management strategies. Full article

The transportation sector, as a major source of carbon emissions, plays a crucial role in the realization of dual carbon goals worldwide. In this study, an improved least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) is used to identify six key factors affecting transportation carbon emissions (TCEs) in China. Aiming at the spatio-temporal characteristics of transportation carbon emissions, a CNN-BiLSTM neural network model is constructed for the first time for prediction, and an improved whale optimization algorithm (EWOA) is introduced for hyperparameter optimization, finding that the prediction model combining spatio-temporal characteristics has a more significant prediction accuracy, and scenario forecasting was carried out using the prediction model. Research indicates that over the past three decades, TCEs have demonstrated a rapid growth trend. Under the baseline, green, low-carbon, and high-carbon scenarios, peak carbon emissions are expected in 2035, 2031, 2030, and 2040. The adoption of a low-carbon scenario represents the most advantageous pathway for the sustainable progression of China’s transportation sector. Consequently, it is imperative for China to accelerate the formulation and implementation of low-carbon policies, promote the application of clean energy and facilitate the green transformation of the transportation sector. These efforts will contribute to the early realization of dual-carbon goals with a positive impact on global sustainable development. Full article

The Tibetan-Himalayan region, recognized as a global biodiversity hotspot, is increasingly threatened by the dual pressures of climate change and human activities. Understanding the vulnerability of plant species to these forces is crucial for effective ecological conservation in this region. This study employed an improved Climate Niche Factor Analysis (CNFA) framework to assess the vulnerability of six representative alpine endemic herbaceous plants in this ecologically sensitive region under future climate changes. Our results show distinct spatial vulnerability patterns for the six species, with higher vulnerability in the western regions of the Tibetan-Himalayan region and lower vulnerability in the eastern areas. Particularly under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), climate change is projected to substantially intensify threats to these plant species, reinforcing the imperative for targeted conservation strategies. Additionally, we found that the current coverage of protected areas (PAs) within the species’ habitats was severely insufficient, with less than 25% coverage overall, and it was even lower (<7%) in highly vulnerable regions. Human activity hotspots, such as the regions around Lhasa and Chengdu, further exacerbate species vulnerability. Notably, some species currently classified as least concern (e.g., Stipa purpurea (S. purpurea)) according to the IUCN Red List exhibit higher vulnerability than species listed as near threatened (e.g., Cyananthus microphyllus (C. microphylla)) under future climate change. These findings suggest that existing biodiversity assessments, such as the IUCN Red List, may not adequately account for future climate risks, highlighting the importance of incorporating climate change projections into conservation planning. Our study calls for expanding and optimizing PAs, improving management, and enhancing climate resilience to mitigate biodiversity loss in the face of climate change and human pressures. Full article

The pepper weevil Anthonomus eugenii is a devastating pest native to Central America that can cause severe damage to over 35 pepper varieties. Global trade in peppers has significantly increased the risk of its spread and expansion. Moreover, future climate change may add more uncertainty to its distribution, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage globally. Therefore, we employed an ensemble model combining Random Forests and CLIMEX to predict the potential global distribution of A. eugenii in historical and future climate scenarios. The results indicated that the maximum temperature of the warmest month is an important variable affecting global A. eugenii distribution. Under the historical climate scenario, the potential global distribution of A. eugenii is concentrated in the Midwestern and Southern United States, Central America, the La Plata Plain, parts of the Brazilian Plateau, the Mediterranean and Black Sea coasts, sub-Saharan Africa, Northern and Southern China, Southern India, Indochina Peninsula, and coastal area in Eastern Australia. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas in the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Europe, and China, are projected to expand toward higher latitudes. In China, the number of highly suitable areas is expected to increase significantly, mainly in the south and north. Contrastingly, suitable areas in Central America, northern South America, the Brazilian Plateau, India, and the Indochina Peninsula will become less suitable. The total land area suitable for A. eugenii under historical and future low- and high-emission climate scenarios accounted for 73.12, 66.82, and 75.97% of the global land area (except for Antarctica), respectively. The high-suitability areas identified by both models decreased by 19.05 and 35.02% under low- and high-emission scenarios, respectively. Building on these findings, we inferred the future expansion trends of A. eugenii globally. Furthermore, we provide early warning of A. eugenii invasion and a scientific basis for its spread and outbreak, facilitating the development of effective quarantine and control measures. Full article

Land use/land cover (LULC) change constitutes a critical driver influencing regional carbon cycling processes. Optimizing LULC structures represents a significant pathway toward the realization of carbon neutrality. This study takes Liaoning Province as a case area to analyze LULC changes from 2000 to 2020 and to assess their impacts on land use carbon emissions (LUCE) and ecosystem carbon storage (ECS). To accelerate the achievement of carbon neutrality, four development scenarios are established: natural development (ND), low-carbon emission (LCE), high-carbon storage (HCS), and carbon neutrality (CN). For each scenario, corresponding optimization objectives and constraint conditions are defined, and a multi-objective LULC optimization coupling model is formulated to optimize both the quantity structure and spatial pattern of LULC. On this basis, the model quantifies ECS and LUCE under the four scenarios and evaluates the economic value of each scenario and its contribution to the carbon neutrality target. Results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the extensive expansion of construction land resulted in a reduction in ECS by 12.72 × 10⁶ t and an increase in LUCE by 150.44 × 10⁶ t; (2) Compared to the ND scenario, the LCE scenario exhibited the most significant performance in controlling carbon emissions, while the HCS scenario achieved the highest increase in carbon sequestration. The CN scenario showed significant advantages in reducing LUCE, enhancing ECS, and promoting economic growth, achieving a reduction of 0.18 × 10⁶ t in LUCE, an increase of 118.84 × 10⁶ t in ECS, and an economic value gain of 3386.21 × 10⁶ yuan. This study optimizes the LULC structure from the perspective of balancing economic development, LUCE reduction, and ECS enhancement. It addresses the inherent conflict between regional economic growth and ecological conservation, providing scientific evidence and policy insights for promoting LULC optimization and advancing carbon neutrality in similar regions. Full article

Understanding alpine plants’ survival and reproduction is crucial for their conservation in climate change. Based on 423 valid distribution points, this study utilizes the MaxEnt model to predict the potential habitat and distribution dynamics of Leontopodium nanum under both current and future climate scenarios, while clarifying the key factors that influence its distribution. The primary ecological drivers of distribution are altitude (2886.08 m–5576.14 m) and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (−6.60–1.55 °C). Currently, the suitable habitat area is approximately 520.28 × 10⁴ km², covering about 3.5% of the global land area, concentrated mainly in the Tibetan Plateau, with smaller regions across East and South Asia. Under future climate scenarios, low-emission (SSP126), suitable areas are projected to expand during the 2050s and 2070s. High-emission (SSP585), suitable areas may decrease by 50%, with a 66.07% reduction in highly suitable areas by the 2070s. The greatest losses are expected in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Regarding dynamic habitat changes, by the 2050s, newly suitable areas will account for 51.09% of the current habitat, while 68.26% of existing habitat will become unsuitable. By the 2070s, newly suitable areas will rise to 71.86% of the current total, but the loss of existing areas will exceed these gains, particularly under the high-emission scenario. The centroid of suitable habitats is expected to shift northward, with migration distances ranging from 23.94 km to 342.42 km. The most significant shift is anticipated under the SSP126 scenario by the 2070s. This study offers valuable insights into the distribution dynamics of L. nanum and other alpine species under the context of climate change. From a conservation perspective, it is recommended to prioritize the protection and restoration of vegetation in key habitat patches or potential migration corridors, restrict overgrazing and infrastructure development, and maintain genetic diversity and dispersal capacity through assisted migration and population genetic monitoring when necessary. These measures aim to provide a robust scientific foundation for the comprehensive conservation and sustainable management of the grassland ecosystem on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Full article

Refining the land use structure can boost land utilization efficiency and curtail regional carbon emissions. Nevertheless, prior research has predominantly concentrated on static linear planning analysis. It has failed to account for how future dynamic alterations in driving factors (such as GDP and population) affect simulation outcomes and how the land use spatial configuration impacts the attainment of the carbon-neutrality goal. In this research, 1 km spatial resolution LULC products were employed to meticulously simulate multiple land use scenarios across China at the national level from 2030 to 2060. This was performed by taking into account the dynamic changes in driving factors. Subsequently, an analysis was carried out on the low-carbon land use spatial structure required to reach the carbon-neutrality target. The findings are as follows: (1) When employing the PLUS (Patch—based Land Use Simulation) model to conduct simulations of various land use scenarios in China by taking into account the dynamic alterations in driving factors, a high degree of precision was attained across diverse scenarios. The sustainable development scenario demonstrated the best performance, with kappa, OA, and FoM values of 0.9101, 93.15%, and 0.3895, respectively. This implies that the simulation approach based on dynamic factors is highly suitable for national-scale applications. (2) The simulation accuracy of the PLUS and GeoSOS-FLUS (Systems for Geographical Modeling and Optimization, Simulation of Future Land Utilization) models was validated for six scenarios by extrapolating the trends of influencing factors. Moreover, a set of scenarios was added to each model as a control group without extrapolation. The present research demonstrated that projecting the trends of factors having an impact notably improved the simulation precision of both the PLUS and GeoSOS-FLUS models. When contrasted with the GeoSOS-FLUS model, the PLUS model attained superior simulation accuracy across all six scenarios. The highest precision indicators were observed in the sustainable development scenario, with kappa, OA, and FoM values reaching 0.9101, 93.15%, and 0.3895, respectively. The precise simulation method of the PLUS model, which considers the dynamic changes in influencing factors, is highly applicable at the national scale. (3) Under the sustainable development scenario, it is anticipated that China’s land use carbon emissions will reach their peak in 2030 and achieve the carbon-neutrality target by 2060. Net carbon emissions are expected to decline by 14.36% compared to the 2020 levels. From the perspective of dynamic changes in influencing factors, the PLUS model was used to accurately simulate China’s future land use. Based on these simulations, multi-scenario predictions of future carbon emissions were made, and the results uncover the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of China’s carbon emissions. This study aims to offer a solid scientific basis for policy-making related to China’s low-carbon economy and high-quality development. It also intends to present Chinese solutions and key paths for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Full article

To date, few studies have been published for cities in Germany that take into account climate change and changing hydrologic patterns due to increases in building density. This study investigates the efficiency of LID for past and future climate in the polycentric agglomeration area Frankfurt, Main (Central Germany) using observed and projected climate (model) data for a standard reference period (1961–1990) and a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) as well as a climate protection scenario (RCP 2.6), under 40 to 75 percent building density. LID elements included green roofs, permeable pavement and bioretention cells. SWMM₅ was used as model for simulation purposes. A holistic evaluation of simulation results showed that effectiveness increases incrementally with LID implementation percentage and inverse to building density if implemented onto at least 50 percent of available impervious area. Building density had a higher adverse effect on LID efficiency than climate change. The results contribute to the understanding of localized effects of climate change and the implementation of adaption strategies to that end. The results of this study can be helpful for the scientific community regarding future investigations of LID implementation efficiency in dense residential areas and used by local governments to provide suggestions for urban water balance revaluation. Full article

Boda boda motorbike taxis are a primary mode of transport in Nairobi, Kenya, and a major source of urban air pollution. This study investigates the environmental and electrical grid impacts of electrifying Nairobi’s boda boda fleet. Using real-world tracking data from 118 motorbikes, we simulated the effects of a full-scale transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric motorbikes. We analysed various scenarios, including different battery charging strategies (swapping and home charging), motor efficiencies, battery capacities, charging rates, and the potential for solar power offsetting. The results indicate that electrification could reduce daily ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ emissions by approximately 85% and eliminate tailpipe particulate matter emissions. However, transitioning the entire country’s fleet would increase the national daily energy demand by up to 6.85 GWh and could introduce peak grid loads as high as 2.40 GW, depending on the charging approach and vehicle efficiency. Battery swapping was found to distribute the grid load more evenly and better complement solar power integration compared to home charging, which concentrates demand in the evening. This research provides a scalable, data-driven framework for policymakers to assess the impacts of transport electrification in similar urban contexts, highlighting the critical trade-offs between environmental benefits and grid infrastructure requirements. Full article

Atmospheric warming results in increase in temperatures for the mean, the coldest, and the hottest day of the year, season, or month. Global warming leads to a large increase in the atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. Using the GISS-E2.1 climate model, we present the future changes in the coldest and hottest daily temperatures as well as in extreme precipitation indices (under four main Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)). The increase in the wet-day precipitation ranges between 6% and 15% per 1 °C global surface temperature warming. Scaling of the 95th percentile versus the total precipitation showed that the sensitivity for the extreme precipitation to the warming is about 10 times stronger than that for the mean total precipitation. For six precipitation extreme indices (Total Precipitation, R95p, RX5day, R10mm, SDII, and CDD), the histograms of probability density functions become flatter, with reduced peaks and increased spread for the global mean compared to the historical period of 1850–2014. The mean values shift to the right end (toward larger precipitation and intensity). The higher the GHG emission of the SSP scenario, the more significant the increase in the index change. We found an intensification of precipitation over the globe but large uncertainties remained regionally and at different scales, especially for extremes. Over land, there is a strong increase in precipitation for the wettest day in all seasons over the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. There is an enlargement of the drying patterns in the subtropics including over large regions around Mediterranean, southern Africa, and western Eurasia. For the continental averages, the reduction in total precipitation was found for South America, Europe, Africa, and Australia, and there is an increase in total precipitation over North America, Asia, and the continental Russian Arctic. Over the continental Russian Arctic, there is an increase in all precipitation extremes and a consistent decrease in CDD for all SSP scenarios, with the maximum increase of more than 90% for R95p and R10 mm observed under SSP5–8.5. Full article

The maritime sector is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by increasingly stringent international regulations targeting air pollution. While newly built vessels integrate advanced technologies for compliance, the global fleet averages 21.8 years of age and must meet emission requirements through retrofitting or operational changes. This study evaluates, at environmental and economic levels, two key sulphur abatement strategies for a 1998-built cruise vessel nearing the end of its service life: (i) the installation of open-loop scrubbers with fuel enhancement devices, and (ii) a switch to marine diesel oil as main fuel. The analysis was based on real operational data from a cruise vessel. For the environmental assessment, a Tier III hybrid emissions model was used. The results show that scrubbers reduce SO_x emissions by approximately 97% but increase fuel consumption by 3.6%, raising both CO₂ and NO_x emissions, while particulate matter decreases by only 6.7%. In contrast, switching to MDO achieves over 99% SO_x reduction, an 89% drop in particulate matter, and a nearly 5% reduction in CO₂ emissions. At an economic level, it was found that, despite a CAPEX of nearly USD 1.9 million, scrubber installation provides an average annual net saving exceeding USD 8.2 million. From the deterministic and probabilistic analyses performed, including Monte Carlo simulations under various fuel price correlation scenarios, scrubber installation consistently shows high profitability, with NPVs surpassing USD 70 million and payback periods under four months. Full article

This study intends to portray how varying degrees of environmental policy stringency and the growing pressure of global competition reflect on high-tech (HT) sectors’ cost rationalization strategies and lead to environmental consequences in 15 G20 countries (1992–2019). Moreover, we center the pattern of cost rationalization management regarding the opportunity cost of ecosystem service consumption and propose to test the fundamental hypothesis stating the possible transmission of competition-induced technological innovations to green economic transformation. Our new methodology estimates quantile-specific effects with MM-QR, while identifying the main interaction effects between regulatory pressure and trade competition uses an extended STIRPAT model. The results reveal a paradoxical finding: despite higher environmental policy stringency and opportunity costs of ecosystem services, HT sectors persistently adopt environmentally detrimental cost-reduction approaches. These findings carry important policy implications: (1) environmental regulations for HT sectors require complementary innovation subsidies, (2) trade agreements should incorporate clean technology transfer clauses, and (3) governments must monitor sectoral emission leakage risks. Our dual machine learning–econometric approach provides policymakers with targeted insights for different emission scenarios, highlighting the need for differentiated strategies across clean and polluting HT subsectors. Full article

Urban areas are responsible for most of Europe’s energy demand and emissions and urgently require building retrofits to meet climate neutrality goals. This study evaluates the energy efficiency potential of three public school buildings in western Macedonia, Greece—a cold-climate region with high heating needs. The buildings, constructed between 1986 and 2003, exhibited poor insulation, outdated electromechanical systems, and inefficient lighting, resulting in high oil consumption and low energy ratings. A robust methodology is applied, combining detailed on-site energy audits, thermophysical diagnostics based on U-value calculations, and a techno-economic assessment utilizing Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and SWOT analysis. The study evaluates a series of retrofit measures, including ceiling insulation, high-efficiency lighting replacements, and boiler modernization, against both technical performance criteria and financial viability. Results indicate that ceiling insulation and lighting system upgrades yield positive economic returns, while wall and floor insulation measures remain financially unattractive without external subsidies. The findings are further validated through sensitivity analysis and policy scenario modeling, revealing how targeted investments, especially when supported by public funding schemes, can maximize energy savings and emissions reductions. The study concludes that selective implementation of cost-effective measures, supported by public grants, can achieve energy targets, improve indoor environments, and serve as a replicable model of targeted retrofits across the region, though reliance on external funding and high upfront costs pose challenges. Full article