Search Results (37)

Geohazard investigation in volcanic fields is essential for understanding and mitigating risks associated with volcanic activity. Volcanic vents are often concealed by processes such as faulting, subsidence, or uplift, which complicates their detection and hampers hazard assessment. To address this challenge, we developed a predictive framework that integrates high-resolution gravity data with multiple machine learning algorithms. Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest models were applied to analyze the gravitational characteristics of known volcanic vents and predict the likelihood of undiscovered vents at other locations. The problem was formulated as a binary classification task, and model performance was assessed using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). The Random Forest algorithm yielded optimal outcomes: 95% classification accuracy, AUC-ROC score of 0.99, 75% geographic correspondence between real and modeled vent sites, and a 95% certainty degree. Spatial density analysis showed that the distribution patterns of predicted and actual vents are highly similar, underscoring the model’s reliability in identifying vent-prone areas. The proposed method offers a valuable tool for geoscientists and disaster management authorities to improve volcanic hazard evaluation and implement effective mitigation strategies. These results represent a significant step forward in our ability to model volcanic dynamics and enhance predictive capabilities for volcanic hazard assessment. Full article

Precise odor source localization in turbulent and sparse environments plays a vital role in enabling robotic systems for hazardous chemical monitoring and effective disaster response. To address this, we propose Cooperative Gravitational-Rényi Infotaxis (CGRInfotaxis), a distributed decision-optimization framework that combines multi-agent collaboration with hybrid cognitive strategy to improve search efficiency and robustness. The method integrates a gravitational potential field for rapid source convergence and Rényi divergence-based probabilistic exploration to handle sparse detections, dynamically balanced via a regulation factor. Particle filtering optimizes posterior probability estimation to autonomously refine search areas while preserving computational efficiency, alongside a distributed interactive-optimization mechanism for real-time decision updates through agent cooperation. The algorithm’s performance is evaluated in scenarios with fixed and randomized odor source locations, as well as with varying numbers of agents. Results demonstrate that CGRInfotaxis achieves a near-100% success rate with high consistency across diverse conditions, outperforming existing methods in stability and adaptability. Increasing the number of agents further enhances search efficiency without compromising reliability. These findings suggest that CGRInfotaxis significantly advances multi-agent odor source localization in turbulent, sparse environments, offering practical utility for real-world applications. Full article

We inspected a sector of the Apennines (central–southern Italy) in geographic and structural continuity with the Quaternary-active extensional belt but where clear geomorphic and seismological signatures of normal faulting are unexpectedly missing. The evidence of active tectonics in this area, between Abruzzo and Molise, does not align with geodetic deformation data and the seismotectonic setting of the central Apennines. To investigate the apparent disconnection between active deformation and the absence of surface faulting in a sector where high lithologic erodibility and landslide susceptibility may hide its structural evidence, we combined multi-scale and multi-source data analyses encompassing morphometric analysis and remote sensing techniques. We utilised high-resolution topographic data to analyse the topographic pattern and investigate potential imbalances between tectonics and erosion. Additionally, we employed aerial-photo interpretation to examine the spatial distribution of morphological features and slope instabilities which are often linked to active faulting. To discern potential biases arising from non-tectonic (slope-related) signals, we analysed InSAR data in key sectors across the study area, including carbonate ridges and foredeep-derived Molise Units for comparison. The topographic analysis highlighted topographic disequilibrium conditions across the study area, and aerial-image interpretation revealed morphologic features offset by structural lineaments. The interferometric analysis confirmed a significant role of gravitational movements in denudating some fault planes while highlighting a clustered spatial pattern of hillslope instabilities. In this context, these instabilities can be considered a proxy for the control exerted by tectonic structures. All findings converge on the identification of an ~20 km long corridor, the Castel di Sangro–Rionero Sannitico alignment (CaS-RS), which exhibits varied evidence of deformation attributable to active normal faulting. The latter manifests through subtle and diffuse deformation controlled by a thick tectonic nappe made up of poorly cohesive lithologies. Overall, our findings suggest that the CaS-RS bridges the structural gap between the Mt Porrara–Mt Pizzalto–Mt Rotella and North Matese fault systems, potentially accounting for some of the deformation recorded in the sector. Our approach contributes to bridging the information gap in this complex sector of the Apennines, offering original insights for future investigations and seismic hazard assessment in the region. Full article

High-resolution seismic reflection profiles from the offshore segment of the Littoral Fault Zone (LFZ) near Nan’ao Island were analyzed to investigate fault activity and its potential link to the 1918 M7.3 earthquake. The data reveal a ~19 km-wide graben bounded by seaward- and landward-dipping normal faults, with fault-propagation folds and growth faults reaching the seafloor. Forward modeling of the fault-propagation fold indicates three discrete episodes of normal dip-slip displacement (~20 m per phase), separated by prolonged quiescent periods, suggesting episodic fault activity and seismic-scale strain accumulation. Despite the regional NW–SE compressional stress regime, active normal faulting is observed, implying vertical stress as the dominant driving force. A gravitational seismic model driven by upper crustal loading is proposed to explain both the fault motion and the down-draw tsunami observed during the 1918 event. These findings offer new insights into intraplate seismogenic mechanisms and associated hazards along the South China coast. Full article

Landslides pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, driven by a complex interplay of geological and hydrological factors. This study investigates the ongoing slope instability affecting the village of Borrano, in Central Italy, where large-scale landslides are triggered or reactivated by extreme rainfall and seismic activity. A multidisciplinary approach was employed, integrating traditional geological surveys, direct investigations, and advanced geophysical techniques—including electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and seismic refraction tomography (SRT)—to characterize subsurface structures. Additionally, Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) was employed to parametrize the deformation rates induced by the landslide. The results reveal a complex geological framework dominated by the Teramo Flysch, where weak clayey facies and structurally controlled dip-slopes predispose the area to gravitational instability. ERT and SRT identified resistivity and velocity contrasts associated with shallow and depth sliding surfaces. At the same time, satellite-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data confirmed persistent slow movements, with vertical displacement rates between −10 and −24 mm/year. These findings underscore the importance of lithological heterogeneity and structural settings in the evolution of landslides. The integrated geophysical and remote sensing approach enhances the understanding of slope dynamics. It can be used to cross-check interpretations, capture displacement trends, characterize the internal structure of unstable slopes, and resolve the limitations of each method. This synergy provides a more comprehensive assessment of complex slope instability, offering valuable insights for hazard mitigation strategies in landslide-prone areas. Full article

Geotechnical slope failures—often precursors to catastrophic landslides and collapses—pose significant risks to mining operations and regional socioeconomic stability. Focusing on the Jiangte Xikeng lithium open-pit mine, this study integrates field reconnaissance, laboratory testing, and multi-physics numerical modeling to elucidate the mechanisms governing slope stability. Geological surveys and core analyses reveal a predominantly granite lithostratigraphy, bisected by two principal fault systems: the NE-striking F01 and the NNE-oriented F02. Advanced three-dimensional finite element simulations—accounting for gravitational loading, hydrogeological processes, dynamic blasting stresses, and extreme rainfall events—demonstrate that strain localizes at slope crests, with maximum displacements reaching 195.7 mm under blasting conditions. They indicate that differentiated slope angles of 42° for intact granite versus 27° for fractured zones are required for optimal stability, and that the integration of fault-controlled instability criteria, a coupled hydro-mechanical-blasting interaction model, and zonal design protocols for heterogeneous rock masses provides both operational guidelines for hazard mitigation and theoretical insights into excavation-induced slope deformations in complex metallogenic environments. Full article

The aim to reduce health risks of workers related to inhalative exposure to potentially toxic dusts requires the selection of appropriate measures depending on the hazard classification of the dust-composing materials. Due to their biodurability, respirable carbon fibers and their fragments can impose such health risks but are currently lacking hazard classification. Here, a method is presented for fragmenting carbon fiber materials and enriching fibrous fragments to a level that is expected to allow differentiating between fiber and particle overload-related toxic effects. The method was applied to a commercial polyacrylonitrile-based carbon fiber. It was ground in an oscillating ball mill, homogenized in a liquid using ultrasonication and left undisturbed for gravitational settling. This way, a vertical gradient in particle size and shape formed, from which the supernatant was collected. Fragment morphologies were characterized with large ensemble statistics by semi-automated evaluation of scanning electron microscopy images employing an artificial neural network for binary semantic segmentation. The number of fibrous fragments of respirable and thus critical fiber morphology was increased from $0.36\times {10}^6$ to $6\times {10}^6$ WHO-analog fibers per mg. This corresponds to a factor of about 15 compared to the initial ground material. Since the mass percentage of non-fibrous objects was also significantly reduced, the requirements for a subsequently scheduled toxicological study with intraperitoneal application were fulfilled. Intraperitoneal testing is an accepted method for assessing the carcinogenic potential of biopersistent fibers. The developed method allows enriching fibrous fractions of concern at acceptable throughput and enables testing fiber toxicological effects of respirable fragments from disintegrated polyacrylonitrile-based carbon fibers. Full article

Climate change is resulting in significant transformations in mountain areas all over the world, causing the melting of glacier ice, reduction in snow accumulation, and permafrost loss. Changes in the mountain cryosphere are not only modifying flora and fauna distributions but also affecting the stability of slopes in those regions. For all these reasons, and because of the risks these phenomena pose to the population, the dentification of dangerous areas is a crucial step in the development of risk reduction strategies. While several methods and examples exist that cover the assessment and computation of single sub-components, there is still a lack of application of risk assessment due to glacier melting over large areas in which the final result can be directly employed in the design of risk mitigation policies at regional and municipal levels. This research is focused on landslides and gravitational movements on slopes resulting from rapid glacier melting phenomena in the Valle d’Aosta region in Italy, with the aim of providing a tool that can support spatial planning in response to climate change in Alpine environments. Through the conceptualization and development of a GIS-based and multi-criteria approach, risk is then estimated by defining hazard indices that consider different aspects, combining the experience acquired from studies carried out in various disciplinary fields, to obtain a framework at the regional level. This first assessment is then deepened for the Lys River Valley, where the mapping of hazardous areas was implemented, obtaining a classification of buildings according to their hazard score to estimate the potential damage and total risk relating to possible slope instability events due to ice melt at the local scale. Full article

Convection monitoring and forecasting are crucial for air traffic management as they can lead to the development of intense thunderstorms and hazards such as severe turbulence and icing, lightning activity, microbursts and hail that affect aviation safety. The airport of Burgas is located in southeast Bulgaria on the Black Sea coast and occurrences of intense thunderstorms are mainly observed in the warm season between May and September. This work presents an analysis of severe convection over southeast Bulgaria on 17 September 2022. In the late afternoon, a gust front was formed that reached the Burgas airport with a wind speed exceeding 45 m/s, the record for the past 50 years, damaging the instrument landing system of the airport. To analyse the severe weather conditions, we combine state-of-the-art observations from satellite and radar with the upper-air sounding and surface. The studied period was dominated by the presence of a very unstable air mass over southeast Bulgaria ahead of the atmospheric front. As convection developed and moved east towards Burgas, it had four characteristics of severe deep convection, including gravitational waves at the overshooting cloud top, a cold U-shape, a flanking line and a cloud top temperature below −70 °C. The positive integrated water vapour (IWV) rate of change preceded the lightning activity peak by 30 min. Analysis of integrated vapour transport (IVT) gives higher values by a factor of two compared to climatology associated with the atmospheric river covering the eastern Mediterranean sea. Full article

Traditional Newmark models estimate earthquake-induced landslide hazards by calculating permanent displacements exceeding the critical acceleration, which is determined from static factors of safety and hillslope geometries. However, these studies typically predict the potential landslide mass only for the source area, rather than the entire landslide zone, which includes both the source and sliding/depositional areas. In this study, we present a modified Newmark Runout model that incorporates sliding and depositional areas to improve the estimation of landslide chain risks. This model defines the landslide runout as the direction from the source area to the nearest river channel within the same slope unit, simulating natural landslide behavior under gravitational effects, which enables the prediction of the entire landslide zone. We applied the model to a subset of the Minjiang Catchment affected by the 1933 M_W 7.3 Diexi Earthquake in China to assess long-term landslide chain risks. The results indicate that the predicted total landslide zone closely matches that of the Xinmo Landslide that occurred on 24 June 2017, despite some uncertainties in the sliding direction caused by the old landslide along the sliding path. Distance-weighted kernel density analysis was used to reduce the prediction uncertainties. The hazard levels of the buildings and roads were determined by the distance to the nearest entire landslide zone, thereby assessing the landslide risk. The landslide dam risks were estimated using the kernel density module for channels blocked by the predicted landslides, modeling intersections of the total landslide zone and the channels. High-risk landslide dam zones spatially correspond to the locations of the knickpoints primarily induced by landslide dams, validating the model’s accuracy. These analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented model for Newmark-based landslide risk estimations, with implications for geohazard chain risk assessments, risk mitigation, and land use planning and management. Full article

Fire is considered a common hazard for civil structures. Public and administrative buildings are commonly designed by considering the standard fire rating and, in many cases, contain large compartments with central domes, in which fire growth can be significant. Moreover, tanks and underground fortified structures may be constructed as domes to support the heavy soil above. This paper numerically addressed such a case. First, an axisymmetric finite element model was developed and validated to predict the dome’s transient, thermal, structural, and thermal-structural behavior. Next, the model was used to conduct a parametric study to investigate the effects of the dome ring reinforcement, thickness, stiffness, central angle, base restraints, load type (external pressure or gravitational), and load ratio on the fire endurance of the dome. Design recommendations to increase the fire endurance of concrete domes were formulated based on the parametric study. Full article

While geodetic measurements have long been used to assess landslides, seismic methods are increasingly recognized as valuable tools for providing additional insights into subsurface structures and mechanisms. This work aims to characterize the subsurface structures of the deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) at Heinzenberg through the integration of active and passive seismic measurements. Seismic techniques can hereby deliver additional information on the subsurface structure and mechanisms involved, e.g., the degree of rock mass degradation, the resonant frequencies of the potentially unstable compartments, and the local fracture network orientations that are influenced by wavefield polarization. By employing advanced methods such as H/V analysis, site-to-reference spectral ratios, polarization analysis, surface wave analysis, and the joint multizonal transdimensional Bayesian inversion of velocity structures, we establish a comprehensive baseline model of the landslide at five selected sites. This baseline model shall help identify potential changes after the refilling of Lake Lüsch, which started in 2021. Our results reveal the rupture surface of the DSGSD at various depths ranging from 30 m at the top to over 90 m in the middle of the slope. Additionally, we estimate key parameters including the shear wave velocities of the different rock masses. The 2D geophysical profiles and rock mass properties contribute to the understanding of the subsurface geometry, geomechanical properties, and potential water pathways. This study demonstrates the significance of integrating seismic methods with traditional geodetic measurements and geomorphologic analysis techniques for a comprehensive assessment of landslides, enhancing our ability to monitor and mitigate hazardous events. Full article

Gravitational processes on cut slopes located close to infrastructure are a high concern in mountainous regions. There are many techniques for survey, assessment, and prognosis of hazardous exogenous geological processes. The given research describes using UAV data and GIS morphometric analysis for delineation of hazardous rockfall zones and 3D modelling to obtain an enhanced, detailed evaluation of slope characteristics. Besides the slope geomorphometric data, we integrated discontinuity layers, including rock plains orientation and fracture network density. Cloud Compare software 2.12 was utilised for facet extraction. Fracture discontinuity analysis was performed in QGIS using the Network GT plugin. The presented research uses an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the weight of each contributing factor. GIS overlay of weighted factors is applied for rockfall susceptibility mapping. This integrated approach allows for a more comprehensive GIS-based rockfall susceptibility mapping by considering both the structural characteristics of the outcrop and the geomorphological features of the slope. By combining UAV data, GIS-based morphometric analysis, and discontinuity analysis, we are able to delineate hazardous rockfall zones effectively. Full article

San Nicola Island, pertaining to the Tremiti Archipelago (Southern Adriatic Sea, Italy), is widely affected by cliff retreat and gravitational phenomena which severely threaten its monumental historical and natural value. In this study, geomorphological features of the area were derived following a stepwise approach, combining multitemporal stereoscopic aerial photo interpretations with morphometric analyses and detailed field surveys. A rockfall susceptibility map was created following a heuristic approach based on morphometric and geothematic parameters, accounting for slope, slope aspect, outcropping lithologies, structural discontinuities density, distance from landslide scarps, and presence of anthropic caves. Cliff sectors set on dolomitic limestones feature the highest susceptibility values, especially along the southeastern sector; medium values, instead, are found along the island flanks and along scarps located within the inner sectors; and the lowest values are detected on summit tabular surfaces. The achieved results were compared with historical maps and seismic data derived from local and national archives and catalogues, respectively. These analyses allowed us to define the role played by litho-structural and tectonic features on landslide occurrence and distribution, and their interplay in driving landscape evolution over centuries. Finally, this work represents a valuable scientific tool to support geomorphological studies for landslide hazard assessment and proper territorial planning in any other small insular areas, showing similar geological–geomorphological features and landscape values. Full article

The assessment of seismic risk for critical and strategic structures like schools and hospitals remains crucial, even in regions with low seismic activity. Presently, operational school buildings in Sri Lanka are primarily designed to handle gravitational loads without considering capacity-based design principles. Consequently, these structures may lack the necessary lateral resistance to mitigate potential damage or collapse during future earthquakes in Sri Lanka. Hence, conducting seismic risk assessments for such school buildings is imperative to ensure the safety of their occupants. In this research paper, we utilize a recently developed probabilistic seismic hazard map for Sri Lanka to evaluate seismic risk. We employ two nonlinear 3-D finite element models of school buildings created in OpenSees. Incremental Dynamic Analysis is conducted using a well-established set of ground motions, continuing until the structure approaches the point of collapse, to determine the probability of collapse prevention. Subsequently, we develop fragility functions for two limit states, immediate occupancy, and collapse prevention. These fragility curves are then used to compute the probability of exceeding these limit states, aiding in the assessment of the structural safety of the school buildings. A key outcome of this analysis reveals a general trend of increased damage probabilities as the number of stories in the buildings increases despite the distinct structural characteristics of each building. It is also important to note that the disparities between the immediate occupancy and more severe damage cases, such as collapse prevention, are notably pronounced in both two- and three-story school buildings. Full article