Search Results (24)

Sea-level rise is accelerating coastal erosion and storm-driven flooding, increasing risks to estuarine ecosystems and coastal communities. Nature-based solutions (NbS), such as those including ecosystem restoration, are widely endorsed for climate change risk mitigation, yet their protective performance under rising sea levels remains poorly quantified across future scenarios. Here we combined scenario-based modelling with spatially explicit exposure mapping to assess how saltmarshes influence shoreline vulnerability under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) sea-level rise projections for 2050 and 2100. Using the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Model and the Lima estuary (NW Portugal) as a case study, we showed that existing saltmarshes currently reduce mean shoreline exposure by approximately 5%, but this contribution declines with sea-level rise, falling to 2.6% by 2100 under SSP5-8.5, resulting in an increase in areas subject to High and Very High exposure risk. But under a saltmarsh revegetation scenario, model results indicated that this revegetation significantly increases the protection across all future scenarios, reducing the number of shoreline points in High and Very High exposure classes by up to 58% and lowering the potential coastal population exposure by up to 27% by 2100 under SSP5-8.5. However, the protective effect of saltmarshes diminished under the most extreme sea-level rise trajectories, indicating that saltmarsh revegetation alone may not be enough to fully offset accelerating coastal hazards. Our results demonstrate that saltmarsh restoration can deliver meaningful climate adaptation benefits; however, to safeguard estuarine systems and coastal communities under accelerating climate change in the long term, restoration actions must be integrated into broader adaptation strategies. Full article

Landscapes and heritage sites hold significant historical, scientific, and social value but face increasing threats from climate change and human activities. Coastal and maritime heritage are at risk from sea-level rise, storms, erosion, ocean acidification, and pressures such as urbanization, construction, and industrial development. Assessing vulnerability involves considering physical, geomorphological, and socioeconomic factors, including land use, population density, tourism, and ecosystem sensitivity. Long-term monitoring, interdisciplinary research, and holistic approaches are essential for effective risk assessment and planning. This study focuses on the coastal landscapes of northern Portugal, where climate change adaptation is urgent. These areas contain important historical heritage, especially fortified military structures that reflect regional identity and maritime history shared with other coastal nations. The research highlights significant risks to these monuments because of their proximity to the sea and expanding urban areas, providing insights to guide policymakers and support localized adaptation strategies. A two-phase methodology was employed, beginning with a comprehensive literature review to identify key indicators that informed field observations, surveys, and archival research, resulting in a detailed inventory of coastal and estuarine fortifications. The second phase assessed their vulnerability to sea-level rise, coastal flooding, and shoreline retreat. The study presents a methodological approach that provides local decision-makers with strategic guidance to enhance the protection and sustainable management of coastal heritage. Full article

Coastal flooding risk is intensifying under climate change, especially along the low sandy Senegalese coastline. This study explores the spatiotemporal variability of extreme coastal water levels (ECWL) from 1993 to 2023 by combining ERA5 reanalysis (waves, wind, pressure), tide gauge and meteorological data, and applying a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to estimate the 99th percentile and return levels for 50 and 100 year events. The analysis of the upper 1% of ECWLs reveals significant spatial heterogeneity: 99th percentile values exceed 1.2 m in the Dakar region (Yoff, Ouakam, Ngor) and around Saint-Louis/Langue de Barbarie, with 95% confidence intervals ranging from approximately 1.15 m to 1.30 m, while Casamance and the Saloum Delta exhibit much lower extremes (0.8–1.0 m). For return periods, ECWLs vary between 1.6 m and 2.3 m, with the 100 year return level (T100) exceeding 2.25 m in Dakar, above 2.0 m in Saint-Louis, and intermediate values (1.5–1.9 m) along the Petite Côte (Mbour–Toubab Dialaw) and in the Saloum Delta. The 50 year return level (T50) follows a similar spatial pattern but is 5–10 cm lower than T100 in the most exposed areas. Sensitivity analysis shows that ECWLs are primarily controlled by astronomical tide along much of the coast, whereas wave runup dominates in the southern estuarine zones (Saloum, Casamance, Mbour). Trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test reveals a latitudinal gradient: stronger positive slopes in the south, weaker trends in central and northern sections, but all p values lie between 0.1 and 0.4, meaning none of the trends reach conventional significance. These findings point to a potential intensification of extreme water levels in socio-economically critical areas (Dakar, Saint-Louis, Mbour) but should be interpreted with caution given the lack of robust statistical significance. The results provide a quantitative basis for coastal risk management in light of projected sea level rise. Full article

Accurate water-level prediction is a critical component for ensuring safe maritime navigation, optimizing port operations, and mitigating coastal flooding risks. However, the complex, non-linear spatiotemporal dynamics of water systems pose significant challenges for current forecasting models. The proposed framework introduces three key innovations. First, a dual-weight graph construction mechanism integrates geographical proximity with Dynamic Time Warping (DTW)-derived temporal similarity to better represent hydrodynamic connectivity in coastal and estuarine environments. Second, a state-aware weighted loss function is designed to enhance predictive accuracy during critical hydrological events, such as storm surges and extreme tides, by prioritizing the reduction in errors in these high-risk periods. Third, the WS-STGTN architecture combines graph attention with temporal self-attention to capture long-range dependencies in both space and time. Extensive experiments are conducted using water-level data from five stations in the tidal-influenced lower Yangtze River, a vital artery for shipping and a region susceptible to coastal hydrological extremes. The results demonstrate that the model consistently surpasses a range of baseline methods. Notably, the WS-STGTN achieves an average reduction in Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 27.6% compared to the standard Transformer model, along with the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2\approx 0.96$) across all datasets, indicating its stronger explanatory power for observed water-level variability. This work provides a powerful tool that can be directly applied to improve coastal risk management, marine navigation safety, and the operational planning of port and coastal engineering projects. Full article

Plastic pollution is an increasing global concern, with estuaries being especially vulnerable as transition zones between freshwater and marine systems. These ecosystems often accumulate large amounts of waste, affecting wildlife and water quality. This study focuses on analysing the circulation patterns of the Ave Estuary, a small, shallow system on Portugal’s north-western coast, and their influence on litter transport and distribution. This site was selected for installing an aquatic litter removal technology under the EU-funded MAELSTROM project. A 2DH hydrodynamic model using Delft3D FM, coupled with the Wflow hydrological model, was implemented and validated. Various scenarios were simulated to assess estuarine dynamics and pinpoint zones prone to litter accumulation and flood risk. The results show that tidal action and river discharge mainly drive the estuary’s behaviour. Under low discharge, floating litter should be mostly transported toward the ocean, while high discharge conditions should result in litter movement at all depths due to stronger currents. High water levels and flooding occur mainly upstream and in specific low-lying areas near the mouth. Low-velocity zones, which can favour litter accumulation, were found around the main channel and on the western margin near the estuary’s mouth, even during high flows. These findings highlight persistent accumulation zones, even under extreme event conditions. Full article

Urban estuarine environments face increasing water safety risks due to microbial contamination from combined sewer overflows (CSOs), particularly during heavy rainfall events. In megacities like Tokyo, where waterfronts are widely used for recreation, such contamination poses significant public health risks. The challenge is compounded by the variability in both intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall across the catchment, combined with complex tidal dynamics making effective water quality management difficult. To address this challenge, we conducted a series of hydrodynamic–microbial fate simulations to examine the spatial and vertical behavior of Escherichia coli (E. coli) under different rainfall–tide conditions. Focusing on the Sumida River estuary, rainfall data from eight drainage areas were classified into six event types using cluster analysis. Two contrasting events were selected for detailed analysis: a light rainfall (G2, 15 mm over 13 h) and an intense event (G6, 272 mm over 34 h). Vertical water quality profiling was performed along an 8.5 km transect from the Kanda–Sumida River confluence to the Tokyo Bay Tunnel, illustrating E. coli and salinity. The results showed that the rainfall intensity and tidal phase at the event onset are critical in shaping both the magnitude and vertical distribution of microbial contamination. The intense event (G6) led to deep microbial intrusion (up to 6–7 m) and major salinity disruption, while the lighter event (G2) showed surface-layer confinement. Salinity gradients were more strongly affected during G6, indicating freshwater intrusion. Tidal phase also influenced transport: the flood-high condition retained E. coli, whereas ebb-low tides facilitated downstream flushing. These findings highlight the influence of rainfall intensity and tidal timing on microbial distribution and support the use of vertical profiling in estuarine water quality management. They also support the development of dynamic, event-based water quality risk assessment tools. With appropriate local calibration, the modeling framework is transferable to other urban estuarine systems to support proactive and adaptive water quality management. Full article

Effective flood management requires a comprehensive understanding of interactions between multiple flooding sources. This study investigates compound flooding in the Brisbane River Estuary (BRE), Australia, using the MIKE 21 hydrodynamic model to assess the combined effects of tidal and riverine processes on flood extent and water levels. Unlike conventional studies that evaluate these factors separately, this research quantifies the impact of boundary condition variations at the Moreton Bay entrance on flood modelling accuracy. The model was calibrated by adjusting Manning’s n, achieving a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (E_ns) ranging from 0.84 to 0.95. Validation results show a 90% agreement between the simulated and observed 2011 flood extent. The findings highlight the critical role of tidal boundary conditions, as their exclusion led to a 0.62 m and 0.12 m reduction in flood levels at Jindalee and Brisbane City gauges, respectively. This study provides valuable insights for improving flood risk assessment, model accuracy, and decision-making in estuarine flood management. Full article

Weird horizontal shapes of branches, in large branching estuaries, often cause significant flood risks and environment-related problems. People usually resort to engineering methods to improve the horizontal shape of the weird branches and solve related issues. The responses of the riverbed evolution of a branching estuary to anthropogenic activity are complicated because of complex estuarine hydrodynamics and sediment transports, especially when the project locates specially (e.g., at estuary outlets). The North Branch of the Yangtze Estuary has a narrow upper reach which is almost orthogonal to the South Branch and has a trumpet-shaped lower reach with a wide outlet. The weird horizontal shape of the North Branch brings significant flood risks to cities along this branch, the shrinkage of its entrance, and other problems. In this study, a regulation of the North Branch, which is launched at Guyuan Sand (GYS) just outside the exit of the North Branch, is taken as an example. The GYS regulation aims to improve the weird horizontal shape of the North Branch by building new layouts of outlets, by which people decrease the flood risk of the surrounding cities. The GYS regulation is studied using a 2D numerical model. The riverbed evolution of the Yangtze Estuary in a typical hydrological year is simulated, while the water/sediment fluxes at cross-sections of branches in the estuary during a spring/neap tide are quantitatively calculated. It is found that the regulation changes the rotational flows near the shore, and further reshapes the estuarine circulations of mass inside the outlets, especially exchanges of water/sediment between different branches. The regulation directly changes the riverbed evolution at the outlet of the North Branch, and meanwhile has significant indirect influences on the riverbed evolution of the entrance of the North Branch. The varying riverbed evolution at the entrance of the North Branch and the varying water/sediment fluxes, under different designs of regulations, are related and analyzed. An essential improvement for the weird horizontal shape of the North Branch by an engineering method is shown to be possible, while the regulation mechanism of the engineering method and the response of estuarine riverbed evolution to the regulation are clarified. This study provides a new insight for improving estuarine branches with weird horizontal shapes, by reshaping the tidal processes and the accompanying sediment transports in a branching estuary. Full article

In low-lying coastal areas, the interplay of various factors including precipitation, river flow, and storm surge can lead to greater influence on floods when they occur simultaneously. The copula method was used in this study to investigate the bivariate flood risk of compounding storm surge and river discharge events in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). Our results indicate that while the correlation between storm surge and flood peak (S-Q) was weak, there was a strong dependence between the pairs of storm surge–flood volume (S-V) and storm surge–flood duration (S-D). For these three pairs, the Clayton copula was the optimal function for S-Q, while the Frank copula was the optimal function for S-V and S-D, respectively. When the flood volume exceeds 2.0 × 10⁴ m³/s and the flood duration is more than 10 days, the bivariate hydrologic risk for S-V and S-D is observed to decrease rapidly. Furthermore, the failure probability (FP) would be underestimated when the combined impact of river flow and storm surge is ignored in coastal flood risk assessment. Such bivariate hydrologic risk analysis implies that when determining design values in coastal flood risk assessment, the combined impact of river flow and storm surge should be taken into account. Full article

Synthesis of geologic and chronologic data generated from Holocene sedimentary sequences recovered along the inner continental shelf, shoreface, and modern coastal zone of the Georgia Bight reveal a synchronous sequence of paleoenvironmental events that occurred in response to rate of sea level rise tipping points. During the early Holocene (11.7–8.2 cal kyr BP), the paleoshoreline was overstepped and submerged by rapidly rising seas that averaged ~5 mm yr⁻¹. Rates of rise during the middle Holocene (8.2–4.2 cal kyr BP) averaged ~2 mm yr⁻¹ and this deceleration resulted in the formation of coastal environments and sedimentary sequences that were subsequently reworked as the shoreface continued its landward and upward migration. The modern coastal zone emerged commensurate with the late Holocene (4.2–0 cal kyr BP), when the rate of sea level rise averaged <1 mm yr⁻¹. Analysis of water level data collected at six NOAA tide gauge stations located along the Georgia Bight coast indicates the rate of relative sea level rise has increased from a historical average of 3.6 ± 0.2 mm yr⁻¹ (<1972 to 2022) to 6.6 ± 0.8 (1993 to 2022) and during the 21st century it has averaged 9.8 ± 0.3 mm yr⁻¹ (2003 to 2022). The current rate of sea level rise is nearly double the early Holocene rate of rise. Based upon a novel application of the principle of uniformitarianism (i.e., the past is the key to the future), the likely geomorphic trajectory of the Georgia Bight coastal zone under conditions of 21st century accelerating sea level rise will be one of increasing instability (e.g., coastal erosion) and flooding (e.g., overwash, breaching). Evidence of an emerging instability within the coastal zone has been previously reported throughout the region and supports the trajectory of geomorphic change proposed herein. This will ultimately result in the submergence of existing landscapes and replacement by estuarine and marine environments, which may hasten in pace and scale given the current rate of sea level rise is expected to continue accelerating throughout this century. These findings have not been previously reported and should be considered by coastal practitioners responsible for conceptualizing risk, as well as the formulation and implementation of adaptation action plans designed to mitigate threats to the built and natural environment induced by climate change. Full article

Sea-level rise in Benin coastal zones leads to risks of erosion and flooding, which have significant consequences on the socio-economic life of the local population. In this paper, erosion, flood risk, and greenhouse gas sequestration resulting from sea-level rise in the coastal zone of the Benin coast were assessed with the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) using ArcGIS Pro 3.1 tools. The input features used were the Digital Elevation Map (DEM), the National Wetland Inventory (NWI) categories, and the slope of each cell. National Wetland Inventory (NWI) categories were then created using Support Vector Machines (SVMs), a supervised machine learning technique. The research simulated the effects of a 1.468 m sea-level rise in the study area from 2021 to 2090, considering wetland types, marsh accretion, wave erosion, and surface elevation changes. The largest land cover increases were observed in Estuarine Open Water and Open Ocean, expanding by approximately 106.2 hectares across different sea-level rise scenarios (RCP 8.5_Upper Limit). These gains were counterbalanced by losses of approximately 106.2 hectares in Inland Open Water, Ocean Beaches, Mangroves, Regularly Flooded Marsh, Swamp, Undeveloped, and Developed Dryland. Notably, Estuarine Open Water (97.7 hectares) and Open Ocean (8.5 hectares) experienced the most significant expansion, indicating submergence and saltwater intrusion by 2090 due to sea-level rise. The largest reductions occurred in less tidally influenced categories like Inland Open Water (−81.4 hectares), Ocean Beach (−7.9 hectares), Swamp (−5.1 hectares), Regularly Flooded Marsh (−4.6 hectares), and Undeveloped Dryland (−2.9 hectares). As the sea-level rises by 1.468 m, these categories are expected to be notably diminished, with Estuarine Open Water and Open Ocean becoming dominant. Erosion and flooding in the coastal zone are projected to have severe adverse impacts, including a gradual decline in greenhouse gas sequestration capacity. The outputs of this research will aid coastal management organizations in evaluating the consequences of sea-level rise and identifying areas with high mitigation requirements. Full article

Harmful cyanobacteria blooms (cyanoHABs) are a global phenomenon, especially in calm, warm, and nutrient-rich freshwater and estuarine systems. These blooms can produce various potent toxins responsible for animal poisoning and human health problems. Nutrient-rich freshwater pulsed into estuaries affects turbidity, water temperature, salinity, and nutrient concentrations and ratios at irregular intervals, creating a highly dynamic habitat. However, the underlying processes that lead to the selective development of cyanoHABs for certain species and the fate of their toxins are still uncertain. This paper draws upon the rich body of research available for one such system, the Lake Pontchartrain Estuary, Louisiana, to generate insights about future research directions in pulsed-nutrient-delivery estuaries. Toxin-producing cyanobacteria blooms in river-dominated Louisiana coastal ecosystems have already been documented at high concentrations, presenting a potential risk to human health as $2.4 billion worth of Louisiana’s fish and shellfish are consumed by millions of people throughout the US every year. Recent studies have shown that the Lake Pontchartrain Estuary, just north of New Orleans, Louisiana has been experiencing cyanoHABs, likely connected to combinations of (a) high interannual variability in nutrient loading associated with seasonal and episodic rainfall, (b) the timing, duration, and magnitude of the flood-stage Mississippi River water diverted into the Lake Pontchartrain Estuary, and (c) saltwater inputs from tropical storms. It is expected that cyanoHABs will become more frequent in Louisiana with a warming climate and changes to the timing and magnitude of river water diverted into the Lake Pontchartrain Estuary, which will play a dominant role in the development of blooms in this region. More studies are needed to focus on the environmental conditions that control the succession or/and co-existence of different cyanobacteria species and their toxins, optimally culminating in a near-term forecasting tool since this information is critical for health agencies to mitigate or to provide early warnings. Toxin forecasts for pulsed-nutrient estuaries, including Lake Pontchartrain, could directly inform state and municipal health agencies on human exposure risks to upcoming cyanobacteria toxicity events by predicting cyanobacteria species shifts, potency, and toxin modality along the freshwater-to-marine continuum while also informing a longer-term projection on how the changing climate will impact the frequency and potency of such blooms. Full article

Estuarine margins are usually heavily occupied areas that are commonly affected by compound flooding triggers originating from different sources (e.g., coastal, fluvial, and pluvial). Therefore, estuarine flood management remains a challenge due to the need to combine the distinct dimensions of flood triggers and damages. Past flood data are critical for improve our understanding of flood risks in these areas, while providing the basis for a preliminary flood risk assessment, as required by European Floods Directive. This paper presents a spin-off database of estuarine flood events built upon previously existing databases and a framework for working with qualitative past flood information using multiple correspondence analysis. The methodology is presented, with steps ranging from a spin-off database building process to information extraction techniques, and the statistical method used was further explored through the study of information acquired from the categories and their relation to the dimensions. This work enabled the extraction of the most relevant estuarine flood risk indicators and demonstrates the transversal importance of triggers, since they are of utmost importance for the characterization of estuarine flood risks. The results showed a relation between sets of triggers and damages that are related to estuarine margin land use, demonstrating their ability to inform flood risk management options. This work provides a consistent and coherent approach to use qualitative information on past floods, as a useful contribution in the context of scarce data, where measured and documentary data are not simultaneously available. Full article

In the current context of climate change, understanding the effects of the changing conditions on estuaries is of utmost importance to protect populations and ecosystems. Given the diversity of impacts depending on the region, there is a need for local and dedicated studies to understand and mitigate the risks. Numerical models can provide forecasts of extreme floods and sea-level rise (SLR). However, they can present inaccuracies. In this work, the ensemble technique was applied to improve the numerical modeling forecasting for estuaries by considering scenarios of extreme river flow discharges (EFDs) and SLR scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The simulations were performed for two different estuarine regions in northern Portugal, and the superensemble was constructed with the results of two different numerical models. The results differed per estuary, highlighting the importance of a local approach. For the Douro estuary dynamics, the results showed that for the EFD, the effects of the SLR were not noticeable, indicating that, in this estuary, the river component was more important than the maritime component. In contrast, the Minho estuary dynamics were found to be affected by the SLR along the whole estuarine region, indicating a maritime influence and a worsening of the flood conditions for future scenarios. Full article

Inhabitants of low-lying islands face increased threats due to climate change as a result of their higher exposure and lesser adaptive capacity. Sagar Island, the largest inhabited estuarine island of Sundarbans, is experiencing severe coastal erosion, frequent cyclones, flooding, storm surges, and breaching of embankments, resulting in land, livelihood, and property loss, and the displacement of people at a huge scale. The present study assessed climate change-induced vulnerability and risk for Sagar Island, India, using an integrated geostatistical and geoinformatics-based approach. Based on the IPCC AR5 framework, the proportion of variance of 26 exposure, hazard, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity parameters was measured and analyzed. The results showed that 19.5% of mouzas (administrative units of the island), with 15.33% of the population at the southern part of the island, i.e., Sibpur–Dhablat, Bankimnagar–Sumatinagar, and Beguakhali–Mahismari, are at high risk (0.70–0.80). It has been concluded that the island has undergone tremendous land system transformations and changes in climatic patterns. Therefore, there is a need to formulate comprehensive adaptation strategies at the policy- and decision-making levels to help the communities of this island deal with the adverse impacts of climate change. The findings of this study will help adaptation strategies based on site-specific information and sustainable management for the marginalized populations living in similar islands worldwide. Full article