Search Results (2,624)

A reliable geothermal risk assessment methodology is key to any business decision. To be effective, it must be based on widely accepted principles, be easy to apply, be auditable, and produce consistent results. In this paper, we review the key characteristics of a geothermal project and propose a novel approach derived from risk and uncertainty definitions used in the hydrocarbon industry. According to the proposed methodology, the probability of success is assessed by estimating three different components. The first is the geological probability of success, which is the likelihood that the geological model on which the geothermal project is based is correct and that the key fundamental geological elements are present. The second, the temperature threshold, is defined as the probability that the fluid is above a certain reference value. Such a reference value is the one used to design the development. Such a component, therefore, depends on the end use of the geothermal resource. The third component is the commercial probability of success and estimates the chance of a project being commercially viable using the Reverse Enthalpy Methodology. Geothermal projects do not have a single parameter that represents their monetary value. Therefore, in order to estimate it, it is necessary to make an initial assumption that can be revisited later in an iterative manner. The proposed methodology works with either the capital expenditure of the geothermal facility (power plant or direct thermal use) or the drilling cost as the initial assumption. Varying the other parameter, it estimates the probability of having a net present value (NPV) higher than zero. Full article

Forest volume is an important information for assessing the economic value and carbon sequestration capacity of forest resources and serves as a key indicator for energy flow and biodiversity. Although remote sensing technology is applied to estimate volume, optical remote sensing data have limitations in capturing forest vertical height information and may suffer from reflectance saturation. While LiDAR data can provide more detailed vertical structural information, they come with high processing costs and limited observation range. Therefore, improving the accuracy of volume estimation through multi-source data fusion has become a crucial challenge and research focus in the field of forest remote sensing. In this study, we integrated Sentinel-2 multispectral data, Resource-3 stereoscopic imagery, UAV-based LiDAR data, and field survey data to quantitatively estimate the forest volume in Saihanwula Nature Reserve, located in Inner Mongolia, China, on the southern part of Daxing’anling Mountains. The study evaluated the performance of multi-source remote sensing features by using recursive feature elimination (RFE) to select the most relevant factors and applied four machine learning models—multiple linear regression (MLR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting regression tree (GBRT)—to develop volume estimation models. The evaluation metrics include the coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), and relative root mean square error (rRMSE). The results show that (1) forest Canopy Height Model (CHM) data were strongly correlated with forest volume, helping to alleviate the reflectance saturation issues inherent in spectral texture data. The fusion of CHM and spectral data resulted in an improved volume estimation model with R² = 0.75 and RMSE = 8.16 m³/hm², highlighting the importance of integrating multi-source canopy height information for more accurate volume estimation. (2) Volume estimation accuracy varied across different tree species. For Betula platyphylla, we obtained R² = 0.71 and RMSE = 6.96 m³/hm²; for Quercus mongolica, R² = 0.74 and RMSE = 6.90 m³/hm²; and for Populus davidiana, R² = 0.51 and RMSE = 9.29 m³/hm². The total forest volume in the Saihanwula Reserve ranges from 50 to 110 m³/hm². (3) Among the four machine learning models, GBRT consistently outperformed others in all evaluation metrics, achieving the highest R² of 0.86, lowest RMSE of 9.69 m³/hm², and lowest rRMSE of 24.57%, suggesting its potential for forest biomass estimation. In conclusion, accurate estimation of forest volume is critical for evaluating forest management practices and timber resources. While this integrated approach shows promise, its operational application requires further external validation and uncertainty analysis to support policy-relevant decisions. The integration of multi-source remote sensing data provides valuable support for forest resource accounting, economic value assessment, and monitoring dynamic changes in forest ecosystems. Full article

To fully accommodate renewable and derivative energy sources in mine energy systems under supply and demand uncertainties, this paper proposes an optimized electricity–heat scheduling method for mining areas that incorporates Power-to-Gas (P2G) technology and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). First, to address uncertainties on both the supply and demand sides, a P2G unit is introduced, and a Latin hypercube sampling technique based on Cholesky decomposition is employed to generate wind–solar-load sample matrices that capture source–load correlations, which are subsequently used to construct representative scenarios. Second, a stochastic optimization scheduling model is developed for the mine electricity–heat energy system, aiming to minimize the total scheduling cost comprising day-ahead scheduling cost, expected reserve adjustment cost, and CVaR. Finally, a case study on a typical mine electricity–heat energy system is conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of operational cost reduction and system reliability. The results demonstrate a 1.4% reduction in the total operating cost, achieving a balance between economic efficiency and system security. Full article

In recent years, online streaming has encountered the challenge of retaining its user base. This study considers the role of transaction cost economics theory in consumer choices to continue subscribing. Participants respond to their top three streaming services, resulting in 797 responses, accounting for multiple selections by each respondent. Respondents could choose their top three services from a list of Netflix, Disney, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, and Apple TV+. The study’s conclusions highlight the impact of uncertainty, a negative measure of streaming quality, on online subscription-based video streaming. Additionally, asset specificity, reflecting uniqueness and exclusive content, is found to be positively related to continuing a subscription. This research distinguishes itself by examining individuals who are already subscribers to provide insights and guidance through the lens of Transaction Cost Economics, to help marketing professionals seeking a deeper understanding of consumer behavior in the online streaming landscape. Full article

Strengthening climate resilience constitutes a foundational approach through which cities adapt to climate change and mitigate associated environmental risks. However, research on the influence of economic policy environments on climate resilience remains limited. Guided by institutional theory and dynamic capability theory, this study employs a panel dataset comprising 272 Chinese cities at the prefecture level and above, covering the period from 2009 to 2023. It constructs a composite index framework for evaluating the green business environment (GBE) and urban climate resilience (UCR) using the entropy weight method. Employing a two-way fixed-effect regression model, it examined the impact of GBE optimization on UCR empirically and also explored the underlying mechanisms. The results show that improvements in the GBE significantly enhance UCR, with green innovation (GI) in technology functioning as an intermediary mechanism within this relationship. Moreover, climate policy uncertainty (CPU) exerts a moderating effect along this transmission pathway: on the one hand, it amplifies the beneficial effect of the GBE on GI; on the other hand, it hampers the transformation of GI into improved GBEs. The former effect dominates, indicating that optimizing the GBE becomes particularly critical for enhancing UCR under high CPU. To eliminate potential endogenous issues, this paper adopts a two-stage regression model based on the instrumental variable method (2SLS). The above conclusion still holds after undergoing a series of robustness tests. This study reveals the mechanism by which a GBE enhances its growth through GI. By incorporating CPU as a heterogeneous factor, the findings suggest that governments should balance policy incentives with environmental regulations in climate resilience governance. Furthermore, maintaining awareness of the risks stemming from climate policy volatility is of critical importance. By providing a stable and supportive institutional environment, governments can foster steady progress in green innovation and comprehensively improve urban adaptive capacity to climate change. Full article

Digestate valorization is essential for sustainable waste management and circular economy strategies, yet large-scale adoption faces technical, economic, and environmental challenges. Beyond waste-to-energy conversion, digestate is a valuable soil amendment, enhancing soil structure and reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers. However, its agronomic benefits depend on feedstock characteristics, treatment processes, and application methods. This study reviews digestate composition, treatment technologies, regulatory frameworks, and environmental impact assessment through Life Cycle Assessment. It analyzes the influence of functional unit selection and system boundary definitions on Life Cycle Assessment outcomes and the effects of feedstock selection, pretreatment, and post-processing on its environmental footprint and fertilization efficiency. A review of 28 JCR-indexed articles (2018–present) analyzed LCA studies on digestate, focusing on methodologies, system boundaries, and impact categories. The findings indicate that Life Cycle Assessment methodologies vary widely, complicating direct comparisons. Transportation distances, nutrient stability, and post-processing strategies significantly impact greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient retention efficiency. Techniques like solid–liquid separation and composting enhance digestate stability and agronomic performance. Digestate remains a promising alternative to synthetic fertilizers despite market uncertainty and regulatory inconsistencies. Standardized Life Cycle Assessment methodologies and policy incentives are needed to promote its adoption as a sustainable soil amendment within circular economy frameworks. Full article

The problem of choosing an electric generator in order to increase the reliability and continuity of energy supply to households in Ukraine was considered. It was shown that this choice is made under conditions of uncertainty. The methods of choosing alternatives to technical systems under conditions of uncertainty, based on axiomatic, heuristic and verbal decision-making methods described in the sources, were analyzed, and the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) was selected to develop a model for choosing an electric generator. The technical, economic, operational and ergonomic criteria for choosing an electric generator were justified. The novelty of the article lies in the use of the developed structural hierarchical model for choosing an electric generator for a household, and the selection of the appropriate generator option for a household was carried out using the AHP. The selected F3001 generator model is characterized by the highest value of the generalized weighting factor due to the impact of estimates based on economic and operational criteria. The use of the cogeneration unit in an agricultural biogas plant was also indicated—as an alternative to household energy supply. Full article

This paper examines the changing role of emissions trading systems (ETSs) within the macro-financial framework of energy markets, emphasizing price dynamics and systemic spillovers. Utilizing monthly data from seven ETS jurisdictions spanning January 2021 to December 2024 (N = 287 observations after log transformation and first differencing), which includes four auction-based markets (United States, Canada, United Kingdom, South Korea), two secondary markets (China, New Zealand), and a government-set fixed-price scheme (Germany), this research estimates a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) employing a Common Correlated Effects (CCE) model and augments it with machine learning analysis utilizing XGBoost and explainable AI methodologies. The PVAR-CEE reveals numerous unexpected findings related to carbon markets: ETS returns exhibit persistence with an autoregressive coefficient of −0.137 after a four-month lag, while increasing inflation results in rising ETS after the same period. Furthermore, ETSs generate spillover effects in the real economy, as elevated ETSs today forecast a 0.125-point reduction in unemployment one month later and a 0.0173 increase in inflation after two months. Impulse response analysis indicates that exogenous shocks, including Brent oil prices, policy uncertainty, and financial volatility, are swiftly assimilated by ETS pricing, with effects dissipating completely within three to eight months. XGBoost models ascertain that policy uncertainty and Brent oil prices are the most significant predictors of one-month-ahead ETSs, whereas ESG factors are relevant only beyond certain thresholds and in conditions of low policy uncertainty. These findings establish ETS markets as dynamic transmitters of macroeconomic signals, influencing energy management, labor changes, and sustainable finance under carbon pricing frameworks. Full article

The exponential growth of lithium-ion battery consumption has amplified the urgency of identifying sustainable and economically viable recycling solutions. This study proposes an integrated decision-making framework based on the T-Spherical Fuzzy Einstein Interaction Aggregator DEMATEL-CoCoSo approach to comprehensively evaluate and rank battery recycling technologies under uncertainty. Ten key evaluation criteria—encompassing environmental, economic, and technological dimensions—were identified through expert consultation and literature synthesis. The T-Spherical Fuzzy DEMATEL method was first applied to analyze the causal interdependencies among criteria and determine their relative weights, revealing that environmental drivers such as energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and waste generation exert the most systemic influence. Subsequently, six recycling alternatives were assessed and ranked using the CoCoSo method enhanced by Einstein-based aggregation, which captured the complex interactions present in the experts’ evaluations and assessments. Results indicate that Direct Recycling is the most favorable option, followed by the Hydrometallurgical and Bioleaching methods, while Pyrometallurgical Recycling ranked lowest due to its high energy demands and environmental burden. The proposed hybrid model effectively handles linguistic uncertainty, expert variability, and interdependent evaluation structures, offering a robust decision-support tool for sustainable technology selection in the circular battery economy. The framework is adaptable to other domains requiring structured expert-based evaluations under fuzzy environments. Full article

The pepper weevil Anthonomus eugenii is a devastating pest native to Central America that can cause severe damage to over 35 pepper varieties. Global trade in peppers has significantly increased the risk of its spread and expansion. Moreover, future climate change may add more uncertainty to its distribution, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage globally. Therefore, we employed an ensemble model combining Random Forests and CLIMEX to predict the potential global distribution of A. eugenii in historical and future climate scenarios. The results indicated that the maximum temperature of the warmest month is an important variable affecting global A. eugenii distribution. Under the historical climate scenario, the potential global distribution of A. eugenii is concentrated in the Midwestern and Southern United States, Central America, the La Plata Plain, parts of the Brazilian Plateau, the Mediterranean and Black Sea coasts, sub-Saharan Africa, Northern and Southern China, Southern India, Indochina Peninsula, and coastal area in Eastern Australia. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas in the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Europe, and China, are projected to expand toward higher latitudes. In China, the number of highly suitable areas is expected to increase significantly, mainly in the south and north. Contrastingly, suitable areas in Central America, northern South America, the Brazilian Plateau, India, and the Indochina Peninsula will become less suitable. The total land area suitable for A. eugenii under historical and future low- and high-emission climate scenarios accounted for 73.12, 66.82, and 75.97% of the global land area (except for Antarctica), respectively. The high-suitability areas identified by both models decreased by 19.05 and 35.02% under low- and high-emission scenarios, respectively. Building on these findings, we inferred the future expansion trends of A. eugenii globally. Furthermore, we provide early warning of A. eugenii invasion and a scientific basis for its spread and outbreak, facilitating the development of effective quarantine and control measures. Full article

With the increasing uncertainty introduced by the large-scale integration of renewable energy sources, traditional power dispatching methods face significant challenges, including severe frequency fluctuations, substantial forecasting deviations, and the difficulty of balancing economic efficiency with system stability. To address these issues, a deep learning-based dispatching framework is proposed, which integrates spatiotemporal feature extraction with a stability-aware mechanism. A joint forecasting model is constructed using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to handle multi-source inputs, while a reinforcement learning-based stability-aware scheduler is developed to manage dynamic system responses. In addition, an uncertainty modeling mechanism combining Dropout and Bayesian networks is incorporated to enhance dispatch robustness. Experiments conducted on real-world power grid and renewable generation datasets demonstrate that the proposed forecasting module achieves approximately a 2.1% improvement in accuracy compared with Autoformer and reduces Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 18.1% and 14.1%, respectively, compared with traditional LSTM models. The achieved Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.82% outperforms all baseline models. In terms of scheduling performance, the proposed method reduces the total operating cost by 5.8% relative to Autoformer, decreases the frequency deviation from 0.158 Hz to 0.129 Hz, and increases the Critical Clearing Time (CCT) to 2.74 s, significantly enhancing dynamic system stability. Ablation studies reveal that removing the uncertainty modeling module increases the frequency deviation to 0.153 Hz and raises operational costs by approximately 6.9%, confirming the critical role of this module in maintaining robustness. Furthermore, under diverse load profiles and meteorological disturbances, the proposed method maintains stable forecasting accuracy and scheduling policy outputs, demonstrating strong generalization capabilities. Overall, the proposed approach achieves a well-balanced performance in terms of forecasting precision, system stability, and economic efficiency in power grids with high renewable energy penetration, indicating substantial potential for practical deployment and further research. Full article

Under the construction background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, high-energy-consuming enterprises, represented by the electrolytic aluminum industry, have become important carriers for energy conservation and emission reduction. These enterprises are characterized by significant energy consumption and high carbon emissions, greatly impacting the economic and environmental benefits of regional power grids. Existing research often focuses on grid revenue, leaving high-energy-consuming enterprises in a passive regulatory position. To address this, this paper constructs an economic dispatch strategy for power grids that considers waste heat utilization in high-energy-consuming enterprises. A typical representative, electrolytic aluminum load and its waste heat utilization model, for the entire production process of high-energy-consuming loads, is established. Using a tiered carbon trading calculation formula, a low-carbon production scheme for high-energy-consuming enterprises is developed. On the grid side, considering local load levels, the uncertainty of wind power output, and the energy demands of aluminum production, a robust day-ahead economic dispatch model is established. Case analysis based on the modified IEEE-30 node system demonstrates that the proposed method balances economic efficiency and low-carbon performance while reducing the conservatism of traditional optimization approaches. Full article

In the context of achieving low-carbon goals, building low-carbon energy systems is a crucial development direction and implementation pathway. Renewable energy is favored because of its clean characteristics, but the access may have an impact on the power grid. Microgrid technology provides an effective solution to this problem. Uncertainty exists in single microgrids, so multiple microgrids are introduced to improve system stability and robustness. Electric carbon trading and profit redistribution among multiple microgrids have been challenges. To promote energy commensurability among microgrids, expand the types of energy interactions, and improve the utilization rate of renewable energy, this paper proposes a cooperative operation optimization model of multi-microgrids based on the green certificate and carbon trading mechanism to promote local energy consumption and a low carbon economy. First, this paper introduces a carbon capture system (CCS) and power-to-gas (P2G) device in the microgrid and constructs a cogeneration operation model coupled with a power-to-gas carbon capture system. On this basis, a low-carbon operation model for multi-energy microgrids is proposed by combining the local carbon trading market, the stepped carbon trading mechanism, and the green certificate trading mechanism. Secondly, this paper establishes a cooperative game model for multiple microgrid electricity carbon trading based on the Nash negotiation theory after constructing the single microgrid model. Finally, the ADMM method and the asymmetric energy mapping contribution function are used for the solution. The case study uses a typical 24 h period as an example for the calculation. Case study analysis shows that, compared with the independent operation mode of microgrids, the total benefits of the entire system increased by 38,296.1 yuan and carbon emissions were reduced by 30,535 kg through the coordinated operation of electricity–carbon coupling. The arithmetic example verifies that the method proposed in this paper can effectively improve the economic benefits of each microgrid and reduce carbon emissions. Full article

Natural fiber-based biocomposites are rapidly gaining traction in sustainable manufacturing. However, their supply chain (SC) designs at the feedstock pre-processing stage often lack robust multicriteria decision-making evaluations, which can impact downstream processes and final product quality. This case study proposes a sustainability-driven multicriteria decision-making framework for selecting pre-processing equipment configurations within a hemp-based biocomposite SC. Using a cradle-to-gate system boundary, four alternative configurations combining balers (square vs. round) and hammer mills (full-screen vs. half-screen) are evaluated. The analytical network process (ANP) model is used to evaluate alternative SC configurations while capturing the interdependencies among environmental, economic, social, and technical sustainability criteria. These criteria are further refined with the inclusion of sub-criteria, resulting in a list of 11 key performance indicators (KPIs). To evaluate ranking robustness, a non-linear programming (NLP)-based sensitivity model is developed, which minimizes the weight perturbations required to trigger rank reversals, using an IPOPT solver. The results indicated that the Half-Round setup provides the most balanced sustainability performance, while Full-Square performs best in economic and environmental terms but ranks lower socially and technically. Also, the ranking was most sensitive to the weight of the system reliability and product quality criteria, with up to a 100% shift being required to change the top choice under the ANP model, indicating strong robustness. Overall, the proposed framework enables decision-makers to incorporate uncertainty, interdependencies, and sustainability-related KPIs into the early-stage SC design of bio-based composite materials. Full article

In today’s dynamic and highly uncertain environment, organizations, particularly in the aviation sector, face increasing challenges that demand resilient, flexible, and data-driven change management decisions. Responding to the growing need for structured approaches to managing complex uncertainties—geopolitical tensions, economic volatility, social shifts, rapid technological advancements, environmental pressures and regulatory changes—this research proposes a theoretical change management model for aviation service providers, such as airports. Integrating three analytical approaches, the model offers a robust, multi-method approach for supporting sustainable transformation under uncertainty. Normative analysis using Bayesian decision theory identifies influential external environmental factors, capturing probabilistic relationships, and revealing causal links under uncertainty. Prescriptive planning through scenario theory explores alternative future pathways and helps to identify possible predictions, offer descriptive evaluation employing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and assess decision quality under vagueness and complexity. The proposed four-stage model—observation, analysis, evaluation, and response—offers a methodology for continuous external environment monitoring, scenario development, and data-driven, proactive change management decision-making, including the impact assessment of change and development. The proposed model contributes to the theoretical advancement of the change management research area under uncertainty and offers practical guidance for aviation organizations (airports) facing a volatile external environment. This framework strengthens aviation organizations’ ability to anticipate, evaluate, and adapt to multifaceted external changes, supporting operational flexibility and adaptability and contributing to the sustainable development of aviation services. Supporting aviation organizations with tools to proactively manage systemic uncertainty, this research directly supports the integration of sustainability principles, such as resilience and adaptability, for long-term value creation through change management decision-making. Full article