Search Results (335)

Growing agricultural water demand, driven by climate change and land-use intensification, is accelerating global water scarcity and threatening food and environmental security. This study quantifies spatiotemporal changes in crop water requirements (CWR) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) from 1980 to 2017 for wheat, maize, and soybean. A corrected FAO crop coefficient method was used to estimate global CWR, while the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) was applied to decompose its drivers into climate and crop area changes. IWR was calculated to evaluate the increasing water stress in four representative river basins: the Haihe (HRB), Yellow (YRB), Mississippi (MRB), and Ganges (GRB) river basins. Multiple linear regression models were used to identify dominant drivers of water stress. Results show that from 1980 to 2017, CWR increased significantly for maize (+210 × 10⁸ m³) and soybean (+523 × 10⁸ m³) primarily due to crop area expansion, while wheat CWR declined (−109 × 10⁸ m³). Area growth contributed over +850 × 10⁸ m³ to global CWR increases. At the basin scale, IWR rose notably in HRB, YRB, and GRB, but declined in MRB. Regression analysis confirms that crop area change was the dominant driver of variations in IWR, particularly for soybean in HRB and maize in YRB, while precipitation exerted strong negative effects in some regions. This study provides a scalable framework for diagnosing agricultural water stress and its key drivers, supporting climate adaptation and irrigation planning under global change. Full article

Rainfall, as the main driving force of natural disasters such as floods and droughts, has strong non-linear and abrupt characteristics, which makes it difficult to predict. As extreme weather events occur frequently in the Yellow River Basin, it is especially critical to reveal the physical mechanism of rainfall in the basin and integrate monthly scale meteorological data to achieve monthly rainfall prediction. In this paper, we propose a rainfall prediction model coupled with a physical mechanism and a temporal convolutional network (TCN) to achieve the prediction of monthly rainfall in the basin, aiming to reveal the physical mechanism between rainfall factors in the basin based on the transfer entropy and the multidimensional Copula function and based on the physical mechanism which is embedded into the TCN to construct a dual-driven prediction model with both physical knowledge and data, while the SHAP is used to analyze the interpretability of the prediction model. The results are as follows: (1) Temperature, relative humidity, and evaporation are key characteristic factors driving rainfall. (2) The physical mechanism features between temperature, relative humidity, and evaporation can be described by the three-dimensional Gumbel–Hougaard Copula function, with a more concentrated data distribution of their joint distribution probability. (3) The PHY-TCN model can accurately fit the extremes of the rainfall series, improving the model accuracy in the training set by 3.82%, 1.39%, and 9.82% compared to TCN, CNN, and LSTM, respectively, and in the test set by 6.04%, 2.55%, and 8.91%, respectively. (4) Embedding physical mechanisms enhances the contribution of individual feature variables in the PHY-TCN model and increases the persuasiveness of the model. This study provides a new research framework for rainfall prediction in the YRB and analyzes the physical relationship between the input data and output results of the deep learning model. It has important practical significance and strategic value for guiding the optimal scheduling of water resources, improving the risk management level of the basin, and promoting the ecological protection and high-quality development of the YRB. Full article

Despite its rich cultural heritage, the Yellow River Basin (YRB) faces challenges of ecological fragility and unbalanced development that constrain residents’ welfare improvement. Cultural–tourism integration (CTI)—aimed at creating employment, optimizing industrial structure, and improving public services—is increasingly promoted as a pathway to enhance people’s livelihood and well-being (PLW). Grounded in industrial integration theory and welfare economics, this study examined the impact effects, transmission mechanisms, and spatial spillovers of CTI on PLW. Panel data from 75 prefecture-level cities in the YRB, spanning 2011 to 2023, were utilized, and multi-dimensional indices were constructed for both CTI and PLW. Impact effects, mediating mechanisms, and spatial spillovers were examined through kernel density estimation, a dynamic system generalized-method-of-moments (SYS-GMM) model, mediation analysis, and a spatial Durbin model (SDM). The results showed that CTI and PLW both improved over time and displayed a spatial pattern of “midstream and downstream leading, upstream lagging”. CTI significantly promoted PLW, after controlling for dynamics and endogeneity (SYS-GMM coefficient = 0.130, p < 0.01). Industrial structure upgrading acted as a positive mediator, whereas digital infrastructure exhibited a short-term suppressing (negative mediating) effect, implying a phased mismatch between CTI investment priorities and digital input. Spatial estimates further indicated that CTI generated positive spillovers, improving PLW in neighboring cities, in addition to local gains. These findings suggest that basin-wide coordination and better alignment between CTI projects and digital infrastructure are essential for inclusive and sustainable well-being improvements, supporting regional progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. Full article

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is a dominant driver of ecosystem service dynamics in arid inland basins. Focusing on the Yarkant River Basin (YRB), Xinjiang, we coupled the PLUS land-use simulation with the InVEST Habitat Quality Model to project 2040 land-use patterns under four policy scenarios—Natural Development (ND), Arable Protection (AP), Ecological Protection (EP), and Economic Development (ED)—and to quantify their impact on habitat quality. Model validation against the 2020 map indicated strong agreement (Kappa = 0.792; FOM = 0.342), supporting scenario inference. From 1990 to 2023, arable land expanded by 58.17% and construction land by 121.64%, while forest land declined by 37.45%; these shifts corresponded to a basin-wide decline and increasing spatial heterogeneity of habitat quality. Scenario comparisons showed the EP pathway performed best, with 32.11% of the basin classified as very high-quality habitat and only 8.36% as very low-quality. In contrast, under ED, the combined share of very low + low quality reached 11.17%, alongside greater fragmentation. Spatially, high-quality habitat concentrates in forest and grassland zones of the middle–upper basin, whereas low-quality areas cluster along the oasis–desert transition and urban peripheries. Expansion of arable and construction land emerges as the primary driver of degradation. These results underscore the need to prioritize ecological-protection strategies especially improving habitat quality in oasis regions and strengthening landscape connectivity to support spatial planning and ecological security in dryland inland river basins. Full article

The Yellow River Basin (YRB), a typical river system facing the challenge of balancing ecological conservation and economic development, offers valuable insights for global sustainable watershed governance through its forestry green transformation. Based on panel data from nine provinces in the basin from 2005 to 2022, this study constructs an efficiency evaluation indicator system for forestry green development. This system incorporates four inputs (labor, land, capital, and energy), two desirable outputs (economic and ecological benefits), and three undesirable outputs (wastewater, waste gas, and solid waste). By systematically integrating the undesirable outputs-based super-SBM model and the global Malmquist–Luenberger (GML) index, this study provides an assessment from both static and dynamic perspectives. The findings are as follows. (1) Forestry green development efficiency showed fluctuations over the study period, with the basin-wide average remaining below the production frontier. Spatially, it exhibits a pattern of “downstream > upstream > midstream”. (2) The average GML index is 0.984 during the study period, representing an average annual decline in forestry green total factor productivity of 1.6%. The growth dynamics transitioned from a stage dominated solely by technological progress to a dual-driver model involving both technological progress and technical efficiency. (3) The drivers of forestry green total factor productivity growth in the basin show profound regional heterogeneity. The downstream region demonstrates a synergistic dual-driver model of technical efficiency and technological progress, the midstream region is trapped in “dual stagnation” of both technical efficiency and technological progress, and the upstream region differentiates into four distinct pathways: technology-driven yet foundationally weak, efficiency-improving yet technology-lagged, endowment-advantaged yet transformation-constrained, and condition-constrained with efficiency limitations. The assessment framework and empirical findings established in this study can provide empirical evidence and policy insights for basins worldwide to resolve the ecological-development dilemma and promote forestry green transformation. Full article

Diurnally asymmetric warming under global climate change is reshaping terrestrial ecosystems, with important implications for vegetation productivity, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration. However, the mechanisms underlying the delayed and differentiated vegetation responses to daytime and nighttime warming, particularly under interacting precipitation regimes, remain insufficiently understood, limiting accurate assessments of ecosystem resilience under future climate scenarios. Clarifying how vegetation responds dynamically to asymmetric temperature changes and precipitation, including their lagged effects, is therefore essential. Here, we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of growing-season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) across the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2022 using Theil–Sen median trend estimation and the Mann–Kendall test. We further quantified the lagged responses of NDVI to daytime maximum temperature (Tmax), nighttime minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation, and identified their dominant controls using partial correlation analysis and an XGBoost–SHAP framework. Results show that (1) growing-season climate in the YRB experienced pronounced diurnal warming asymmetry: Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation all increased, but Tmin rose substantially faster than Tmax. (2) NDVI exhibited an overall increasing trend, with declines confined to only 2.72% of the basin, mainly in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai. (3) NDVI responded to Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation with distinct lag times, averaging 43, 16, and 42 days, respectively. (4) Lag times were strongly modulated by topography, soil properties, and hydro-climatic background. Specifically, Tmax lag time shortened with increasing elevation, soil silt content, and slope, while showing a decrease-then-increase pattern with potential evapotranspiration. Tmin lag time lengthened with elevation, soil sand content, and soil pH, but shortened with higher potential evapotranspiration. Precipitation lag time increased with soil silt content and net primary productivity, decreased with soil pH, and varied nonlinearly with elevation (decrease then increase). By explicitly linking diurnal warming asymmetry to vegetation response lags and their environmental controls, this study advances process-based understanding of climate–vegetation interactions in arid and semi-arid regions. The findings provide a transferable framework for improving ecosystem vulnerability assessments and informing adaptive vegetation management and conservation strategies under ongoing asymmetric warming. Full article

A clear grasp of the interconnections among various drought types forms the foundation for effective drought mitigation policy-making. However, current research on the propagation of groundwater drought (GD) remains relatively limited. Therefore, this study employs a multi-source data approach, combining methods (such as Pearson correlation analysis, cross-convergence mapping systems, and Copula functions) to assess the characteristics and propagation patterns of meteorological (MD), agricultural (AD), and GD in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). Findings demonstrated that (1) drought severity (mainly ranging from 3.25 to 6.49) and duration (mainly ranging from 2.6 to 5.4 months) in the upstream region (UR) of the YRB are relatively large. (2) A total of 79.92% of the regions showed a mutual feedback relationship between agricultural drought and groundwater drought. (3) The duration propagation threshold from MD to AD was relatively high in the source region (SR) (mainly ranging from 5.95 to 8.36) and the midstream region (MR) (mainly ranging from 5.68 to 7.39) under extreme drought conditions. The severity propagation threshold from AD to GD was relatively high in the MR (mainly ranging from 11.8 to 16.5) and the downstream region (DR) (mainly ranging from 14.5 to 20.2) under extreme drought conditions. This study is significant for the rational allocation of regional water resources and drought prevention policy formulation. Full article

Understanding the elevation-dependent response of mountain snow cover to climate change requires transcending statistical correlations to reveal the underlying physical mechanisms. This study investigates these mechanisms in the Upper Yarkand River Basin (U-YRB, located on the northwestern edge of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau) from 2002 to 2020 by integrating a Gradient-Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT) model, a process-based degree-day model, and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Our analysis reveals a significant overall decline in Snow Cover Area (SCA) at a rate of −0.25%·a⁻¹, with the rate of decrease accelerating below 4000 m but slowing above this threshold. Snow Depth (SD) exhibited a distinct elevation-dependent trend, decreasing at elevations below 3500 m while increasing above 4000 m. GBDT analysis quantified the shifting dominance of climatic drivers: temperature was the primary factor reducing SCA across all elevations, though its contribution diminished with increasing elevation. Precipitation played a critical yet contrasting role, emerging as the key positive driver for SD accumulation at high elevations (>4500 m). A comparative analysis of snowfall and snowmelt processes identified snowmelt as the key process governing elevation-dependent patterns, peaking around 4000 m. Crucially, SEM elucidated a mechanistic shift across the 4000 m threshold: below 4000 m, snow cover loss was primarily driven by temperature via its strong positive effect on snowmelt. Above 4000 m, while the influence of temperature persisted, the dominant positive effect of precipitation on snowfall became the key driver of the observed SD increase. This shift signals a fundamental transition from melt-dominated dynamics at lower elevations to accumulation-influenced dynamics at higher elevations. Our findings clarify the physical processes behind elevation-dependent snow cover changes and underscore the necessity of elevation-stratified frameworks for hydrological prediction and water resource management in alpine basins. Full article

“Administrative collaboration” is an important theoretical and methodological requirement proposed by the Chinese government to advance the environmental governance of the Yellow River Basin (YRB). In the governance of Yellow River water pollution, it has been regarded as a key strategy to respond to and resolve pollution issues. Administrative collaboration refers to the timely linkage and cooperation that government departments in different administrative regions of the basin carry out when water pollution occurs. China’s current legal documents have stipulated provisions on this; however, most of these provisions are only guiding rather than obligatory, so collaboration between government departments mainly relies on their respective willingness. As a result, administrative power barriers are difficult to break through, making it hard to implement collaborative governance. To address this, relevant entities should be endowed with obligations through legal provisions. This study innovatively proceeds from the perspective of normative texts, establishes administrative collaborative governance as a legal obligation that government departments at all levels must fulfill, and proposes a series of operable and specific supervision requirements. This is intended to ensure the effective implementation of administrative collaboration in governance practice, realize the value of sustainable basin development, and at the same time provide legislative references for governments around the world in carrying out collaborative governance of major rivers. Full article

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) tracks drought events by detecting changes in the global gravitational field and capturing abnormal information on the reserves of surface water, soil water, and groundwater, which makes it possible for a more comprehensive and unified global and regional monitoring of groundwater drought. This study adopted the gravity satellite GRACE data and combined it with the hydrological model dataset. Additionally, we assessed the temporal evolution and spatial pattern of groundwater drought in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and its sub-basins from 2003 to 2022, determined the change points of the hidden seasonal and trend components in groundwater drought, and identified the direct/indirect driving contributions of the main climatic and circulation factors to groundwater drought. The results show that (1) as a normalized index, the groundwater drought index (GDI) can reflect direct evidence of any surplus and deficit in groundwater availability. During the study period, the minimum value (−1.66) of the GDI occurred in July 2020 (severe drought). (2) The average value of GDI in the entire basin ranged from −1.66 (severe drought) to 0.52 (no drought). (3) The average Z_s values (Mann–Kendall Z-statistic) of GDI were −0.23, −0.16, −0.43, and 0.14, respectively, and the proportions of areas with aggravated drought reached 65.21%, 61.05%, 89.70% and 43.67%, respectively. (4) Partial wavelet coherence analysis can simultaneously reveal the local correlations of time series at different time scales and frequencies. Based on partial wavelet analysis, precipitation was the best factor for explaining the dynamic changes in groundwater drought. (5) The North Pacific Index (NPI), the Pacific/North American Index (PNA), and the Sunspot Index (SSI) can serve as the main predictors that can effectively capture the drought changes in groundwater in the YRB. The GRACE satellite can provide a new tool for monitoring, tracking, and assessing groundwater drought situations, which is of great significance for guiding the development of the drought early warning system in the YRB and effectively preventing and responding to drought disasters. Full article

Balancing tourism industry (TI) growth and ecological protection is critical for sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China’s vital ecological security barrier and economic belt. However, existing research lacks a spatial perspective on the coordinated development between TI and inclusive green growth (IGG), with limited understanding of cross-regional spillover mechanisms. Based on panel data from 75 cities in the YRB (2011–2023), this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation system encompassing the scale, structure, and potential dimensions of the TI and the economic, social, livelihood, and environmental dimensions of IGG. The study employs the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to examine spatiotemporal evolution and spillover effects. The results reveal an upward yet fluctuating coordination trend with pronounced spatial heterogeneity, characterized by a “downstream–midstream–upstream” gradient pattern, dual-core radiation centered on the Jinan–Qingdao and Xi’an–Zhengzhou agglomerations, and persistent High–High clusters in the Shandong Peninsula contrasted with Low–Low clusters in the upstream Qinghai–Gansu–Ningxia region. Critically, new-quality productive forces exert significant positive direct and spillover effects, while industrial structure and government intervention have inhibitory spatial effects on adjacent cities. Regional heterogeneity analysis confirms factor-endowment-driven differentiation across upstream, midstream, and downstream areas. These findings advance spatial spillover theory in river basin contexts and provide evidence-based pathways for balancing economic growth with ecological protection in ecologically sensitive regions worldwide, directly supporting multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals. Full article

Under the extensive influence of the monsoon climate, droughts in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) occur frequently and pose a serious threat to grain security. To better understand the evolution and drivers of soil drought, this study employed remote sensing-based soil moisture and atmospheric circulation data from 2000 to 2022. It assessed the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil drought across the YRB and its sub-basins, identified the main mutation points and types, and quantified the relative contributions of climatic and circulation factors. The results show that: (1) the most severe soil drought month occurred in August 2022 (Standardized Soil Moisture Index SSMI = –1.69), with two major mutation points in May 2011 (“decrease to increase”) and June 2019 (“increase to decrease”); (2) drought mutations were mainly categorized as “interrupted decrease” (9 sub-basins) and “increase to decrease” (1 sub-basin), most occurring after 2010; (3) the year 2022 experienced the most severe annual drought (SSMI = –0.94), with extreme drought covering 39.36% of the basin in August; (4) precipitation (PC) was the dominant climatic factor influencing drought (percentage area of significant coherence PASC = 15.48%), while the Interannual Pacific Oscillation (IPO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) all showed significant remote-correlation effects, with mean Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values of 0.138, 0.111, and 0.090, respectively. This study clarifies the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of soil drought in the YRB, providing a scientific basis for improved drought monitoring and agricultural risk management. Full article

Extreme climates pose increasing threats to ecosystems, particularly in ecologically fragile regions such as the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Leaf area index (LAI) reflects vegetation response to climatic stressors, yet spatiotemporal dynamics of such responses under future climate scenarios remain poorly understood. This study examined LAI responses to extreme climatic factors across the YRB from 2025 to 2065, utilizing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Partial least squares regression was performed using historical consistency-validated and future scenario LAI data alongside 26 extreme climate indices to identify extreme climate impacts on vegetation dynamics. Time-lag and cumulative effect analyses using Pearson correlation further quantified the potential impacts of extreme climate on future vegetation dynamics. Results indicate that the regionally averaged LAI in the YRB exhibits a consistent increasing trend under all three SSP scenarios, with linear rates of 0.0016–0.0020 yr⁻¹ and the highest values under SSP5-8.5, accompanied by clear scenario-dependent spatial differences in LAI distribution and vegetation response to extreme climates, particularly in the lag and cumulative effects that depend on local hydro-climatic conditions. Partial least squares regression results identified annual total wet-day precipitation, frost days, growing season length, summer days, and ice days as the dominant extreme climate indices regulating LAI variability. In the arid and semiarid Loess Plateau regions, relatively long lag and cumulative effects imply vegetation vulnerability to delayed or prolonged climatic stress, necessitating enhanced soil and water conservation practices. These findings support region-specific ecological conservation and climate mitigation strategies for the YRB and other ecologically vulnerable watersheds. Full article

The Yellow River Basin (YRB), a vital region for agricultural production in China, is currently grappling with severe rural population shrinkage and variations in the carbon emission intensity across the basin. Based on census data from 2010 to 2020, this study categorized 320 counties by population shrinkage type and applied baseline regression and upper–middle–lower reach heterogeneity analysis to explore population shrinkage’s impact on carbon intensity. The results indicated that population shrinkage in the Yellow River Basin during 2010–2020 was primarily characterized by a rural population decline, which exerted divergent impacts on carbon emissions across the basin. Consequently, the upper reaches were identified as a critical problem area where severe population shrinkage coexisted with a high carbon emission intensity. Based on these findings, targeted and region-specific strategies and policies are proposed. Specifically, High Shrinkage-High Emission (H-H) regions need to focus on promoting ecological migration and the coordinated transformation of industries; High Shrinkage-Low Emission (H-L) regions should strengthen policy coordination in the border areas of the middle and upper reaches; Low Shrinkage-High Emission (L-H) regions should promote the low-carbon technological transformation of traditional industries in downstream counties; and Low Shrinkage-Low Emission (L-L) regions should refine the low-carbon transformation model in the core downstream areas. Full article

With the intensification of global warming, surface thermal environment issues have become increasingly prominent, particularly in the ecologically fragile Yellow River Basin (YRB). However, most studies neglect the synergistic effects of underlying surface composition and geomorphological context, limiting the understanding of regional thermal contribution patterns. Based on MODIS-derived land surface temperature and Landsat 8-based land use and Fathom DEM-derived geomorphological datasets, this study constructs an integrated assessment framework combining a dual “quality–quantity” perspective with land use–geomorphology coupling, systematically analyzing the comprehensive thermal contributions of different underlying surfaces. Results show that (1) the YRB features diverse underlying surfaces, transitioning from natural (forest, grassland) to human-dominated (cropland, construction land) land uses, and from high-altitude, large undulating mountains to low-altitude, small undulating plains along the source-to-downstream gradient. (2) The average LST is 17.97 °C, displaying a south–north and east–west gradient. Human disturbance intensity drives thermal responses at the land use level, with natural surfaces contributing to cooling regulation, while artificial and desert surfaces generate heat accumulation. Geomorphology jointly shapes the thermal distribution, with high mountains acting as cold sources and plains/hills as heat sources. (3) Dual “quality–quantity” dimensional evaluation reveals that temperature-based assessments alone overestimate localized extremes (e.g., towns, extremely high mountains) and underestimate broad, moderate surfaces (e.g., drylands, large and medium undulating high mountains). This “area-neglect effect” may lead to biased regional thermal assessments and unbalanced resource allocation. (4) Coupled land use–geomorphology analysis uncovers the multi-scale composite mechanisms of thermal formation and mitigates single-factor assessment biases. Geomorphology defines macro-scale energy exchange, while land use regulates local heat responses. The results provide scientific support for large-scale thermal assessment and refined management. Full article