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Volume 15
Issue 24
10.3390/agriculture15242603
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This is an early access version, the complete PDF, HTML, and XML versions will be available soon.
Article

Temporal and Spatial Changes in Soil Drought and Identification of Remote Correlation Effects

by
Weiran Luo
1,2,
Jianzhong Guo
1,2,
Ziwei Li
1,2,
Ning Li
1,2,
Fei Wang
3,*,
Hexin Lai
3,
Ruyi Men
3,
Rong Li
3,
Mengting Du
3,
Kai Feng
3,
Yanbin Li
3,
Shengzhi Huang
3 and
Qingqing Tian
3
1
State Key Laboratory of Spatial Datum, College of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics Engineering, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
2
Henan Industrial Technology Academy of Spatiotemporal Big Data, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
3
School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Agriculture 2025, 15(24), 2603; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15242603
Submission received: 6 November 2025 / Revised: 14 December 2025 / Accepted: 15 December 2025 / Published: 16 December 2025
(This article belongs to the Section Ecosystem, Environment and Climate Change in Agriculture)
Versions Notes

Abstract

Under the extensive influence of the monsoon climate, droughts in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) occur frequently and pose a serious threat to grain security. To better understand the evolution and drivers of soil drought, this study employed remote sensing-based soil moisture and atmospheric circulation data from 2000 to 2022. It assessed the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil drought across the YRB and its sub-basins, identified the main mutation points and types, and quantified the relative contributions of climatic and circulation factors. The results show that: (1) the most severe soil drought month occurred in August 2022 (Standardized Soil Moisture Index SSMI = –1.69), with two major mutation points in May 2011 (“decrease to increase”) and June 2019 (“increase to decrease”); (2) drought mutations were mainly categorized as “interrupted decrease” (9 sub-basins) and “increase to decrease” (1 sub-basin), most occurring after 2010; (3) the year 2022 experienced the most severe annual drought (SSMI = –0.94), with extreme drought covering 39.36% of the basin in August; (4) precipitation (PC) was the dominant climatic factor influencing drought (percentage area of significant coherence PASC = 15.48%), while the Interannual Pacific Oscillation (IPO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) all showed significant remote-correlation effects, with mean Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values of 0.138, 0.111, and 0.090, respectively. This study clarifies the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of soil drought in the YRB, providing a scientific basis for improved drought monitoring and agricultural risk management.
Keywords: climate change; soil drought; influencing factors; atmospheric circulation; Yangtze River Basin (YRB) climate change; soil drought; influencing factors; atmospheric circulation; Yangtze River Basin (YRB)

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Luo, W.; Guo, J.; Li, Z.; Li, N.; Wang, F.; Lai, H.; Men, R.; Li, R.; Du, M.; Feng, K.; et al. Temporal and Spatial Changes in Soil Drought and Identification of Remote Correlation Effects. Agriculture 2025, 15, 2603. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15242603

AMA Style

Luo W, Guo J, Li Z, Li N, Wang F, Lai H, Men R, Li R, Du M, Feng K, et al. Temporal and Spatial Changes in Soil Drought and Identification of Remote Correlation Effects. Agriculture. 2025; 15(24):2603. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15242603

Chicago/Turabian Style

Luo, Weiran, Jianzhong Guo, Ziwei Li, Ning Li, Fei Wang, Hexin Lai, Ruyi Men, Rong Li, Mengting Du, Kai Feng, and et al. 2025. "Temporal and Spatial Changes in Soil Drought and Identification of Remote Correlation Effects" Agriculture 15, no. 24: 2603. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15242603

APA Style

Luo, W., Guo, J., Li, Z., Li, N., Wang, F., Lai, H., Men, R., Li, R., Du, M., Feng, K., Li, Y., Huang, S., & Tian, Q. (2025). Temporal and Spatial Changes in Soil Drought and Identification of Remote Correlation Effects. Agriculture, 15(24), 2603. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15242603

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