Search Results (2,736)

Earthquakes, as one of the most destructive natural disasters, often cause significant casualties and severe economic losses. Accurate prediction of earthquake fatalities is of great importance for pre-disaster prevention and mitigation planning, as well as post-disaster emergency response deployment. To address the challenges of small sample sizes, high dimensionality, and strong nonlinearity in earthquake fatality prediction, this paper proposes an integrated modeling approach (PCA-IWOA-XGBoost) combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm (IWOA), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The method first employs PCA to reduce the dimensionality of the influencing factor data, eliminating redundant information and improving modeling efficiency. Subsequently, the IWOA is used to intelligently optimize key hyperparameters of the XGBoost model, enhancing the prediction accuracy and stability. Using 42 major earthquake events in China from 1970 to 2025 as a case study, covering regions including the west (e.g., Tonghai in Yunnan, Wenchuan, Jiuzhaigou), central (e.g., Lushan in Sichuan, Ya’an), east (e.g., Tangshan, Yingkou), north (e.g., Baotou in Inner Mongolia, Helinger), northwest (e.g., Jiashi in Xinjiang, Wushi, Yongdeng in Gansu), and southwest (e.g., Lancang in Yunnan, Lijiang, Ludian), the empirical results showed that the PCA-IWOA-XGBoost model achieved an average test set accuracy of 97.0%, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.996, a root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) reduced to 4.410 and 3.430, respectively, and a residual prediction deviation (RPD) of 21.090. These results significantly outperformed the baseline XGBoost, PCA-XGBoost, and IWOA-XGBoost models, providing improved technical support for earthquake disaster risk assessment and emergency response. Full article

Slow-release nitrogen fertilizers enhance crop production and reduce environmental pollution, but their slow nitrogen release may cause insufficient nitrogen supply in the early stages of crop growth. Mixed nitrogen fertilization (MNF), combining slow-release nitrogen fertilizer with urea, is an effective way to increase yield and income and improve nitrogen fertilizer efficiency. This study used urea alone (Urea) and slow-release nitrogen fertilizer alone (C/SRF) as controls and employed meta-analysis and a random forest model to assess MNF effects on crop yield and nitrogen partial factor productivity (PFPN), and to identify key influencing factors. Results showed that compared with urea, MNF increased crop yield by 7.42% and PFPN by 8.20%, with higher improvement rates in Northwest China, regions with an average annual temperature ≤ 20 °C, and elevations of 750–1050 m; in soils with a pH of 5.5–6.5, where 150–240 kg·ha⁻¹ nitrogen with 25–35% content and an 80–100 day release period was applied, and the blending ratio was ≥0.3; and when planting rapeseed, maize, and cotton for 1–2 years. The top three influencing factors were crop type, nitrogen rate, and soil pH. Compared with C/SRF, MNF increased crop yield by 2.44% and had a non-significant increase in PFPN, with higher improvement rates in Northwest China, regions with an average annual temperature ≤ 5 °C, average annual precipitation ≤ 400 mm, and elevations of 300–900 m; in sandy soils with pH > 7.5, where 150–270 kg·ha⁻¹ nitrogen with 25–30% content and a 40–80 day release period was applied, and the blending ratio was 0.4–0.7; and when planting potatoes and rapeseed for 3 years. The top three influencing factors were nitrogen rate, crop type, and average annual precipitation. In conclusion, MNF should comprehensively consider crops, regions, soil, and management. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing slow-release nitrogen fertilizers and promoting the large-scale application of MNF in farmland. Full article

Sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) is an important oilseed crop in Northwest China, exhibiting resistance to salt and drought. Mining its excellent tolerance genes can be used for breeding. However, the current platforms for identifying gene function in sunflower is inadequate. The transient transformation system, which can rapidly validate gene function, shows promising prospects in research. In this study, we established an efficient transient expression transformation system for sunflower using three methods: Agrobacterium-mediated infiltration, injection, and ultrasonic-vacuum. The detailed procedures were as follows: Agrobacterium GV3101 carrying a GUS reporter gene on the pBI121 vector with an OD₆₀₀ of 0.8 as the bacterial suspension and 0.02% Silwet L-77 as the surfactant were utilized in all three approaches. For the infiltration method, seedlings grown hydroponically for 3 days were immersed in a bacterial suspension containing 0.02% Silwet L-77 for 2 h; for the injection method, the same solution was injected into the cotyledons of seedlings grown in soil for 4 to 6 days. Subsequently, the seedlings were cultured in the dark at room temperature for three days; for the ultrasonic-vacuum method, seedlings cultured in Petri dishes for 3 days were first subjected to ultrasonication at 40 kHz for 1 min, followed by vacuum infiltration at 0.05 kPa for 5–10 min. Agrobacterium-mediated transient transformation efficiency achieved by the three methods exceeded 90%, with gene expression being sustained for at least 6 days. Next, we employed the infiltration-based sunflower transient transformation technology with the Arabidopsis stable transformation platform to confirm salt and drought stress tolerance of candidate gene HaNAC76 from sunflower responding to various abiotic stresses. Altogether, this study successfully established an Agrobacterium-mediated transient transformation system for sunflower using these three methods, which can rapidly identify gene function and explore the molecular mechanisms underlying sunflower’s resistance traits. Full article

Food security is crucial for social stability and economic development. Ensuring food security in the arid region of Northwest China presents unique challenges due to limited water and soil resources. This study addresses these challenges by integrating a comprehensive water and soil resource matching assessment with grain production forecasting. Based on data from 2000 to 2020, this research projects the food security status to 2035 using the GM(1,1) model, incorporating a comprehensive index of soil and water resource matching and regression analysis to inform production forecasts. Key assumptions include continued historical trends in population growth, urbanization, and dietary shifts towards an increased animal protein consumption. The findings revealed a consistent upward trend in grain production from 2000 to 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%. Corn and wheat emerged as the dominant grain crops. Certain provinces demonstrated comparative advantages for specific crops like rice and wheat. The most significant finding is that despite the projected growth in the total grain output by 2035 compared to 2020, the regional grain self-sufficiency rate is projected to range from 79.6% to 84.1%, falling below critical food security benchmarks set by the FAO and China. This projected shortfall carries significant implications, underscoring a serious challenge to regional food security and highlighting the region’s increasing vulnerability to external food supply fluctuations. The findings strongly signal that current trends are insufficient and necessitate urgent and proactive policy interventions. To address this, practical policy recommendations include promoting water-saving technologies, enhancing regional cooperation, and strategically utilizing the international grain trade to ensure regional food security. Full article

Enhancing farmers’ digital literacy is both an inevitable requirement for adapting to the digital age and an important measure for promoting the sustainable development of livestock and poultry manure resource utilization. This study surveyed and obtained data from 1047 farm households in Ningxia and Gansu, two provinces in China that have long implemented livestock manure resource utilization policies, from December 2023 to January 2024, and employed the binary probit model to analyze how digital literacy influences farmers’ willingness to adopt two livestock manure resource utilization modes, as well as to analyze the moderating role of three policy regulations. This paper also explores the heterogeneous results in different village forms and income groups. The results are as follows: (1) Digital literacy significantly and positively impacts farmers’ willingness to adopt both the “household collection” mode and the “livestock community” mode. For every one-unit increase in a farmer’s digital literacy, the probability of farmers’ willingness to adopt the “household collection” mode rises by 22 percentage points, and the probability of farmers’ willingness to adopt the “livestock community” mode rises by 19.8 percentage points. After endogeneity tests and robustness checks, the conclusion still holds. (2) Mechanism analysis results indicate that guiding policy and incentive policy have a positive moderation effect on the link between digital literacy and the willingness to adopt the “household collection” mode. Meanwhile, incentive policy also positively moderates the relationship between digital literacy and the willingness to adopt the “livestock community” mode. (3) Heterogeneity analysis results show that the positive effect of digital literacy on farmers’ willingness to adopt two livestock manure resource utilization modes is stronger in “tight-knit society” rural areas and in low-income households. (4) In further discussion, we find that digital literacy removes the information barriers for farmers, facilitating the conversion of willingness into behavior. The value of this study is as follows: this paper provides new insights for the promotion of livestock and poultry manure resource utilization policies in countries and regions similar to the development process of northwest China. Therefore, enhancing farmers’ digital literacy in a targeted way, strengthening the promotion of grassroots policies on livestock manure resource utilization, formulating diversified ecological compensation schemes, and establishing limited supervision and penalty rules can boost farmers’ willingness to adopt manure resource utilization models. Full article

Understanding the impacts of climate change on species’ geographic distributions is fundamental for biodiversity conservation and resource management. As a key plant group for ecological restoration and windbreak and sand fixation in arid and semi-arid ares in China’s Three Northern Regions (Northeast, North, and Northwest China), Caragana spp. exhibit distribution patterns whose regulatory mechanisms by environmental factors remain unclear, with a long-term lack of climatic explanations influencing their spatial distribution. This study integrated 2373 occurrence records of 44 Caragana species in China’s Three Northern Regions with four major environmental variable categories. Using the Biomod2 ensemble model, current and future climate scenario-based suitable habitats for Caragana spp. were predicted. This study innovatively combined quantitative analyses with Kira’s thermal indexes (warmth index, coldness index) and Wenduo Xu’s humidity index (HI) to elucidate species-specific relationships between distribution patterns and hydrothermal climatic constraints. The main results showed that (1) compared to other environmental factors, climate is the key factor affecting the distribution of Caragana spp. (2) The current distribution centroid of Caragana spp. is located in Alxa Left Banner, Inner Mongolia. In future scenarios, the majority of centroids will shift toward lower latitudes. (3) The suitable habitats for Caragana spp. will expand overall under future climate scenarios. High-stress scenarios exhibit greater spatial changes than low-stress scenarios. (4) Hydrothermal requirements varied significantly among species in China’s Three Northern Regions, and 44 Caragana species can be classified into five distinct types based on warmth index (WI) and humidity index (HI). The research findings will provide critical practical guidance for ecological initiatives such as the Three-North Shelterbelt Program and the restoration and management of degraded ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions under global climate change. Full article

Heavy metal pollution from human activities is an increasing environmental concern. This study investigates the concentrations of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, Hg, and As in the coastal seawater offshore of Beihai, Guangxi, in April 2021, and explores their relationships with dissolved inorganic nitrogen, phosphate, and salinity. Our results reveal higher heavy metal concentrations in the northern nearshore waters and lower levels in southern offshore areas, with surface waters generally exhibiting greater enrichment than bottom waters. Surface concentrations show a decreasing trend from the northeast to the southwest, likely influenced by prevailing northeast monsoon winds. While bottom water concentrations decline from the northwest to the southeast, which indicates the influence of riverine runoff, particularly from the Qinzhou Bay estuary. Heavy metal levels in southern Beihai waters are comparable to those in the Beibu Gulf, except for Hg and Zn, which are significantly higher in the water of the Beibu Gulf. Notably, heavy metal concentrations in both Beihai and Beibu Gulf remain considerably lower than those observed in the coastal waters of Guangdong. Overall, Beihai’s coastal seawater meets China’s Class I quality standards. Nonetheless, continued monitoring is essential, especially of the potential ecological impacts of Hg and Zn on marine life. Full article

Carbon emissions from freshwater aquaculture can exacerbate the greenhouse effect, thereby impacting human life and health. Consequently, it is of great significance to explore the carbon peak process and the role of emission reduction data in China’s freshwater aquaculture industry. This study innovatively employs the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model (LMDI) and the Tapio decoupling model to conduct an in-depth analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions and output values in the freshwater aquaculture industry, accurately identifying the main driving factors. Meanwhile, the global and local Moran’s I indices are introduced to analyze its spatial correlation from a new perspective. The results indicate that from 2013 to 2023, carbon emissions from China’s freshwater aquaculture industry exhibited a quasi-“N”-shaped trend, reaching a peak of 38 million tons in 2015. East China was the primary contributor to carbon emissions, accounting for 46%, while South China, Central China, and Northeast China each had an average annual share of around 14%, with Southwest, North China, and Northwest China contributing relatively small proportions. The global Moran’s I index showed a decreasing trend, with a p-value ≤ 0.0010 and a z-score > 3.3, indicating a 99% significant spatial correlation. High-high clusters were concentrated in some provinces of East China, while low-low clusters were found in Northwest, North, and Southwest China. The level of fishery economic development positively drove carbon emissions, whereas freshwater aquaculture production efficiency, industrial structure, and the scale of the aquaculture population had negative effects on carbon emissions. During the study period, carbon emissions exhibited three states: weak decoupling, strong decoupling, and expansive negative decoupling, with alternating strong and weak decoupling occurring after 2015. Full article

In the irrigation districts of Northern China, the flood resources utilization for deep storage irrigation, which is essentially characterized by active excessive irrigation, aims to have the potential to mitigate freshwater shortages, and long-term groundwater overexploitation. It is crucial to detect the effects of irrigation amounts on agricultural yield and the mechanisms under deep storage irrigation. A three-year field experiment (2020–2023) was conducted in the Guanzhong Plain, according to five soil wetting layer depths (RF: 0 cm; W1: control, 120 cm; W2: 140 cm; W3: 160 cm; W4: 180 cm) with soil saturation water content as the irrigation upper limit. Results exhibited that, compared to W1, the W2, W3, and W4 treatments led to the increased plant height, leaf area index, and dry matter accumulation. Meanwhile, the W2, W3, and W4 treatments improved kernel weight increment achieving maximum grain-filling rate (W_max), maximum grain-filling rate (G_max), and average grain-filling rate (G_ave), thereby enhancing the effective spikes (ES) and grain number per spike (GS), and thus increased wheat grain yield (GY). In relative to W1, the W2, W3, and W4 treatments increased the ES, GS, and GY by 11.89–19.81%, 8.61–14.36%, and 8.17–13.62% across the three years. Notably, no significant difference was observed in GS and GY between W3 and W4 treatments, but W4 treatment displayed significant decreases in ES by 3.04%, 3.06%, and 2.98% in the respective years. The application of a structural equation modeling (SEM) revealed that deep storage irrigation improved ES and GS by positively regulating W_max, G_max, and G_ave, thus significantly increasing GY. Overall, this study identified the optimal threshold (W3 treatment) to maximize wheat yields by optimizing both the vegetative growth and grain-filling dynamics. This study provides essential support for the feasibility assessment of deep storage irrigation before flood seasons, which is vital for the balance and coordination of food security and water security. Full article

Betula. platyphylla Sukaczev (B. platyphylla) forest is an important montane forest type. Global warming has impacted its distribution. However, how it affects suitable distribution across ecoregions and corresponding biodiversity protection measures remains unclear. This study used the Maxent model to analyze the suitable distribution and driving variables of B. platyphylla forest in China and its four ecoregions. The minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model was applied to construct corridors nationwide. Results show that B. platyphylla forest in China is currently mainly distributed in the four ecoregions; specifically, in Gansu and Shaanxi Province in Northwest China, Heilongjiang Province in Northeast China, Sichuan Province in Southwest China, and Hebei Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in North China. Precipitation and temperature are the main factors affecting suitable distribution. With global warming, the suitable areas in China including the North, Northwest China ecoregions are projected to expand, while Northeast and Southwest China ecoregions will decline. Based on the suitable areas, we considered 45 corridors in China, spanning the four ecoregions. Our results help understand dynamic changes in the distribution of B. platyphylla forest in China under global warming, providing scientific guidance for montane forests’ sustainable development. Full article

Arid regions, while providing essential ecosystem services, are among the most ecologically vulnerable worldwide. Understanding and monitoring their long-term vegetation dynamics is essential for accurate environmental assessment and climate adaptation strategies. This study examined the spatiotemporal variations and driving forces of the vegetation dynamics in arid Northwestern China during 2000 to 2020, using the annual peak fractional vegetation cover (FVC) as the primary indicator. The Sen’s slope estimator with the Mann–Kendall test and the coefficient of variation were employed to assess the spatiotemporal variations in FVC, while the Pearson correlation, geographic detector model and random forest model were applied to identify the dominant driving factors for FVC. The results indicated that (1) overall vegetation cover was low (averaged peak FVC = 0.191), showing a spatial pattern of higher values in the northwest and lower values in the southeast; high FVC values were primarily observed in mountainous areas and river corridors; (2) the annual peak FVC increased significantly at a rate of 0.0508 yr⁻¹, with 33.72% of the region showing significant improvements and 5.49% degradation; (3) the spatial pattern of FVC was shaped by the distribution of land use types (59.46%), while the temporal dynamics of FVC were driven by land use changes (16.37%) and the land use intensity (37.56%); (4) both the spatial pattern and the temporal dynamics were limited by the environmental conditions. These findings highlight the critical role of anthropogenic activities in shaping the spatiotemporal variations in FVC, particularly emphasizing the distinct contributions of changes in land use types and land use intensity. This study could provide a scientific basis for sustainable land management and restoration strategies in arid regions facing global changes. Full article

Soil fugitive dust (SFD) emissions pose a significant threat to both human health and the environment, highlighting the need for accurate and reliable estimation and assessment in the desert regions of northwest China. This study used climate, soil, and vegetation data from Bayingolin Prefecture (2001–2022) and applied the WEQ model to analyze temporal and spatial variations in total suspended particulate (TSP), PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 emissions and their driving factors. The region exhibited high emission factors for TSP, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5, averaging 55.46 t km⁻² a⁻¹, 27.73 t km⁻² a⁻¹, and 4.14 t km⁻² a⁻¹, respectively, with pronounced spatial heterogeneity and the highest values observed in Yuli, Qiemo, and Ruoqiang. The annual average emissions of TSP, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 were 3.23 × 10⁷ t, 1.61 × 10⁷ t, and 2.41 × 10⁶ t, respectively. Bare land was the dominant source, contributing 72.55% of TSP emissions. Both total emissions and emission factors showed an overall upward trend, reaching their lowest point around 2012, followed by significant increases in most counties during 2012–2022. Annual precipitation, wind speed, and temperature were identified as the primary climatic drivers of soil dust emissions across all counties, and their influences exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity in Bazhou. In Ruoqiang, Bohu, Korla, and Qiemo, dust emissions are mainly limited by precipitation, although dry conditions and sparse vegetation can amplify the role of wind. In Heshuo, Hejing, and Yanqi, stable vegetation helps to lessen wind’s impact. In Yuli, wind speed and temperature are the main drivers, whereas in Luntai, precipitation and temperature are both important constraints. These findings highlight the need to consider emission intensity, land use, or surface condition changes, and the potential benefits of increasing vegetation cover in severely desertified areas when formulating regional dust mitigation strategies. Full article

Elucidating the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services is crucial for effective ecosystem management and the promotion of sustainable development in specific regions. The Hexi Corridor, a vital agricultural hub in Northwest China, is instrumental in both ecological conservation and socioeconomic advancement throughout the area. Utilizing an integrated “water–soil–carbon–grain” framework, this study conducted a quantitative assessment of four essential ecosystem services within the Hexi Corridor from 2000 to 2020: water yield, soil conservation, vegetation carbon sequestration, and grain production. Our research thoroughly explores the equilibrium and synergistic interactions between grain production and other ecosystem services, while also exploring potential strategies to boost grain yields through the precise management of these services. The insights garnered are invaluable for strategic regional development and will contribute to the revitalization efforts in Northwest China. Key findings include the following: (1) between 2000 and 2020, grain production exhibited a steady increase, alongside rising trends in water yields, soil conservation, and carbon sequestration, all of which demonstrated significant synergies with agricultural productivity; (2) in areas identified as grain production hotspots, there were stronger positive correlations between grain output and carbon sequestration services, soil conservation, and water yields than the regional averages, suggesting more pronounced mutual benefits; (3) the implementation of strategic initiatives such as controlling soil erosion, expanding afforestation efforts, and enhancing water-saving irrigation infrastructure could simultaneously boost ecological services and agricultural productivity. These results significantly enhance our comprehension of the interplay between ecosystem services in the Hexi Corridor and present practical approaches for the optimization of regional agricultural systems. Full article

Understanding the carbon emission efficiency (CEE) of maize production and its determinants is critical to supporting China’s dual-carbon goals and advancing sustainable agriculture. This study employs a super-efficiency slack-based measure model (SBM) to evaluate the CEE of five major maize-producing regions in China from 2001 to 2022. Kernel density estimation and the Dagum Gini coefficient are used to analyze spatiotemporal disparities, while a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model explores the underlying drivers. Results indicate that the national average maize CEE was 0.86, exhibiting a “W-shaped” fluctuation with turning points in 2009 and 2016. From 2001 to 2015, the Southwestern Mountainous Region led with an average efficiency of 0.76. Post-2015, the Northern Spring Maize Region emerged as the most efficient area, reaching 0.90. Efficiency levels have generally become more concentrated across regions, though the Southern Hilly and Northwest Irrigated Regions showed higher volatility. Inter-regional differences were the primary source of overall CEE disparity, with an average annual contribution of 46.66%, largely driven by the efficiency gap between the Northwest Irrigated Region and other areas. Spatial heterogeneity was evident in the impact of key factors. Agricultural mechanization, cropping structure, and environmental regulation exhibited region-specific effects. Rural economic development and agricultural fiscal support were positively associated with CEE, while urbanization had a negative correlation. These findings provide a theoretical foundation and policy reference for region-specific emission reduction strategies and the green transition of maize production in China. Full article

The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, characterized by high population density, an advanced transportation system, and a concentration of industrial activity, is one of the regions severely affected by O₃ pollution in central and eastern China. Using data collected from 251 monitoring stations between 2015 and 2025, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of 8 h O₃ concentrations and instances of exceedance. On the basis of exploring the influence of meteorological factors on regional 8 h O₃ concentration, the potential source contribution areas of pollutants under the exceedance condition were investigated using the HYSPLIT model. The results indicate a rapid increase in the 8 h O₃ concentration at a rate of 0.91 ± 0.98 μg·m⁻³·a⁻¹, with the average number of days exceeding concentration standards reaching 41.05 in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Spatially, the 8 h O₃ concentrations were higher in coastal areas and lower in inland regions, as well as elevated in plains compared to hilly terrains. This distribution was significantly distinct from the concentration growth trend characterized by higher levels in the northwest and lower levels in the southeast. Furthermore, it diverged from the spatial characteristics where exceedances primarily occurred in the heavily industrialized northeastern region and the lightly industrialized central region, indicating that the growth and exceedance of 8 h O₃ concentrations were influenced by disparate factors. Local human activities have intensified the emissions of ozone precursor substances, which could be the key driving factor for the significant increase in regional 8 h O₃ concentrations. In the context of high temperatures and low humidity, this has contributed to elevated levels of 8 h O₃ concentrations. When wind speeds were below 2.5 m·s⁻¹, the proportion of 8 h O₃ concentrations exceeding the standards was nearly 0 under almost calm wind conditions, and it showed an increasing trend with rising wind speeds, indicating that the potential precursor sources that caused high O₃ concentrations originated occasionally from inland regions, with very limited presence within the study area. This observation implies that the main cause of exceedances was the transport effect of pollution from outside the region. Therefore, it is recommended that the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration adopt economic and technological compensation mechanisms within and between regions to reduce the emission intensity of precursor substances in potential source areas, thereby effectively controlling O₃ concentrations and improving public living conditions and quality of life. Full article