Temporal Variations in Particulate Matter Emissions from Soil Wind Erosion in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang, China (2001–2022)

Soil fugitive dust (SFD) emissions pose a significant threat to both human health and the environment, highlighting the need for accurate and reliable estimation and assessment in the desert regions of northwest China. This study used climate, soil, and vegetation data from Bayingolin Prefecture (2001–2022) and applied the WEQ model to analyze temporal and spatial variations in total suspended particulate (TSP), PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 emissions and their driving factors. The region exhibited high emission factors for TSP, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5, averaging 55.46 t km⁻² a⁻¹, 27.73 t km⁻² a⁻¹, and 4.14 t km⁻² a⁻¹, respectively, with pronounced spatial heterogeneity and the highest values observed in Yuli, Qiemo, and Ruoqiang. The annual average emissions of TSP, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 were 3.23 × 10⁷ t, 1.61 × 10⁷ t, and 2.41 × 10⁶ t, respectively. Bare land was the dominant source, contributing 72.55% of TSP emissions. Both total emissions and emission factors showed an overall upward trend, reaching their lowest point around 2012, followed by significant increases in most counties during 2012–2022. Annual precipitation, wind speed, and temperature were identified as the primary climatic drivers of soil dust emissions across all counties, and their influences exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity in Bazhou. In Ruoqiang, Bohu, Korla, and Qiemo, dust emissions are mainly limited by precipitation, although dry conditions and sparse vegetation can amplify the role of wind. In Heshuo, Hejing, and Yanqi, stable vegetation helps to lessen wind’s impact. In Yuli, wind speed and temperature are the main drivers, whereas in Luntai, precipitation and temperature are both important constraints. These findings highlight the need to consider emission intensity, land use, or surface condition changes, and the potential benefits of increasing vegetation cover in severely desertified areas when formulating regional dust mitigation strategies.