Search Results (22)

The purpose of this article is to present findings, relationships, and value added from research on the experiences of women with terrorism in North-East Nigeria to interdisciplinary spaces and practice by using systemist diagrammatic representations. This work is regarded as worthwhile in both substantive and methodological terms for the following reasons: First, respective research projects with policy relevance will be presented in a visual format, highlighting their connectedness—easily digestible, but without losing the depth and breadth of the work. Second, the article provides a combination of diagrams with text (i.e., background methods and findings), making the contents accessible to different kinds of learners. Third, and finally, the visual approach creates clear interdisciplinary connections that provide a sound basis for further research, policy design, and practice without the loss of academic rigor. This article moves forward in seven sections. Section one provides an overview of the study. The second section introduces the systemist approach that will be implemented herein. Sections three through five use systemist graphics to analyze respective publications that focus on women and terrorism. Section six brings the preceding three studies into engagement with each other and addresses the greater significance of the work in the context of multiple disciplines. Seventh and last is the concluding section, which sums up the contributions of this article and offers some ideas for future research. Full article

S-wave seismic data are unaffected by natural gas trapped in strata, making them a valuable tool to study evaporite facies comparing to P-wave data. S-wave seismic data were utilized to construct an isochronous framework and analyze evaporite facies by seismic sedimentology methods in the Quaternary biogenic gas-bearing Taidong area, Sanhu Depression, Qaidam Basin, NW China, with calibration from wireline logs, geochemical evidences, and modern analogs. Techniques of phase rotation, frequency decomposition, R (Red), G (Green), B (Blue) fusion, and stratal slices were integrated to reconstruct seismic geomorphological features. Linear and sub-circular morphologies, resembling those observed in modern saline pans such as Lake Chad, were identified. Observations from Upper Pleistocene outcrops of anhydrite and halite at Yanshan (east of the Taidong area), along with lithological and paleo-environmental records from boreholes SG-5, SG-1, and SG-1b (northwest of the Taidong area), support the seismic findings. The slices generated from the S-wave seismic data indicate a progressive increase in the occurrence of evaporite features from the K2 standard zone upwards. The vertical occurrence of evaporite facies in the Taidong area increases, which coincides with the contemporary regional and global arid paleo-environmental changes. The interpretation of Quaternary stratal slices reveals a transition from a freshwater lake to brackish, saline, and finally, a dry saline pan, overlaid by silt. This analysis provides valuable insights into locating evaporites as cap rocks for biogenic gas accumulation and also into mining the evaporite mineral resources in shallow layers of the Taidong area. Full article

This study investigates the Batha endorheic basin in Chad, situated east of the Lake Chad basin in the arid to semi-arid Sahelian zone. This region has not yet undergone comprehensive geological and hydrogeological studies. More broadly, the transition zone between semi-arid and arid climates has been minimally explored. This research aims to evaluate the resources and dynamics of this multi-layered system using a combined geology-hydrogeology-hydrochemistry-isotopes approach. The multilayer system includes sedimentary layers (Quaternary, Pliocene, and Eocene) over a crystalline basement. A piezometric investigation of the system shows a general SE–NW groundwater, indicating an interconnection between all layers. Hydrochemical analyses identifies four main facies (calcium-bicarbonate, sodium-bicarbonate, sulphate-sodium, and mixed), primarily controlled by water–rock interaction with secondary influences from base-exchange and evaporation. Saturation indices indicate that these waters are close to equilibrium with the calcite-Mg phases, gaylussite and gypsum. Stable isotopes (oxygen-18 and deuterium) categorize groundwater into three groups: ancient water, recent and older meteoric water mixtures affected by evaporation, and mixtures more heavily impacted by evaporation. Tritium contents reveal three groups: current rainwater, modern water, and sub-modern water. These results indicate that ionic and isotopic differentiations cannot be strictly linked to specific layers, confirming the interconnected nature of the Batha system. The observed heterogeneity is mainly influenced by lithological and climatic variations. This study, though still limited, enhances significantly the understanding of the basin’s functioning and supports the rational exploitation of its vital resources for the Batha area’s development. Future investigations to complete the present study are highlighted. Full article

A multi-tracer approach has been implemented in the southwestern part of the Lake Chad Basin to depict the functioning of aquifers in terms of recharge, relationship with surface water bodies, flow paths and contamination. The results are of interest for sustainable water management in the region. The multi-layered structure of the regional aquifer was highlighted with shallower and intermediate to deep flow paths. The shallower aquifer is recharged with rainwater and interconnected with surface water. The groundwater chemistry indicates geogenic influences in addition to a strong anthropogenic fingerprint. The intermediate to deep aquifer shows a longer residence time of groundwater, less connection with the surface and no to only a little anthropogenic influence. Ambient Background Levels (ABLs) and Threshold Values (TVs) show the qualitative status of the groundwater bodies and provide helpful information for water resources protection and the implementation of new directives for efficient and more sustainable groundwater exploitation. Full article

This paper examines the effect of rainfall decline on water resources in each sub-basin (Bozoum: 8100 km² and Bossangoa: 22,800 km²) and at the outlet of Batangafo (43,650 km²) over the 1951–1995 period, due to a lack of measurements since 1996. Annual, monthly, and daily series of rainfall and discharges were subjected to statistical tests (rainfall and flow indices, SPI, search for ruptures/breaks, depletion coefficient, and potential groundwater discharge) to present and discuss the rainfall variability impact on the water resources of the whole basin. The average rainfall per sub-basin decreases from the west to the east according to the Ouham river direction: 1423 mm at Bozoum, 1439 mm at Bossangoa, and 1393 mm at Batangafo, the main outlet. The SPI approach provides evidence of a moderate to normal drought in the whole basin in the 1980s, mainly compared to the 1970s. Thus, deficient breaks in the rainfall series of the Ouham Basin at Batangafo were noticed in 1967 (Bossangoa and Batangafo) and 1969 (Bozoum). A declining rainfall of −5% on average tended to have the highest impact on the runoff deficit, from about −30 to −43%. The deficit seems more important from west to east, and is also high over the groundwater in each outlet (−33% at Bozoum, −29% at Bossangoa, and −31% at Batangafo) in the 1986–1995 period, despite rainfall recovery in 1991 having generated a flow increase in 1995 at Bossangoa as well as at Batangafo. At the same time, Chari/Logone at Ndjamena recorded critical discharges in both 1987 (313 m³/s) and 1990 (390 m³/s) before they increased, such as on the Ouham. These results demonstrate the decline in water resources in the Ouham River, and their direct impact on the water level of the Chari River and Lake Chad in the targeted period. Full article

Lake Chad is a strategic water resource shared by more than 40 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the 1960s, it served as a primary source of water for irrigation and fishing in the region, but the capacity of Lake Chad to supply water for irrigation plummeted by 90% at the beginning of the twenty-first century. With some initiatives taken by the neighboring countries, Lake Chad has recovered about 5% of its water volume in recent years. This research conducted an extensive literature review on Lake Chad and its riparian countries. The four major riparian countries were given particular attention due to their significant stake in the sustainability of lake Chad. This review identified and analyzed the water usage trends in this region, both before and after the lake’s decline in water levels. Our research findings revealed that riparian countries around Lake Chad have experienced an 80% increase in population growth and that the lake has now been reduced to 10% of its original size in the 1960s. Animal production in the region has increased significantly, too, particularly in Chad, and this increase of over 75% has contributed to the conflicts between farmers and herders in the region. The possible solutions proposed for the restoration of Lake Chad include increased water harvesting activities in the basin, developing a legal framework for sustainable water use, incentive-based policies for stakeholders to mitigate climate extremes events, establishing a joint water administration for the basin, and introducing regenerative agricultural practices with a highly efficient micro irrigation system. Full article

General circulation models (GCMs) run at regional resolution or at a continental scale. Therefore, these results cannot be used directly for local temperatures and precipitation prediction. Downscaling techniques are required to calibrate GCMs. Statistical downscaling models (SDSM) are the most widely used for bias correction of GCMs. However, few studies have compared SDSM with multi-layer perceptron artificial neural networks and in most of these studies, results indicate that SDSM outperform other approaches. This paper investigates an alternative architecture of neural networks, namely the long-short-term memory (LSTM), to forecast two critical climate variables, namely temperature and precipitation, with an application to five climate gauging stations in the Lake Chad Basin. Lake Chad is a data scarce area which has been impacted by severe drought, where water resources have been influenced by climate change and recent agricultural expansion. SDSM was used as the benchmark in this paper for temperature and precipitation downscaling for monthly time–scales weather prediction, using grid resolution GCM output at a 5 degrees latitude × 5 degrees longitude global grid. Three performance indicators were used in this study, namely the root mean square error (RMSE), to measure the sensitivity of the model to outliers, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), to estimate the overall performance of the predictions, as well as the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), which is a standard measure used in the field of climate forecasting. Results on the validation set for SDSM and test set for LSTM indicated that LSTM produced better accuracy on average compared to SDSM. For precipitation forecasting, the average RMSE and MAPE for LSTM were 33.21 mm and 24.82% respectively, while the average RMSE and MAPE for SDSM were 53.32 mm and 34.62% respectively. In terms of three year ahead minimum temperature forecasts, LSTM presents an average RMSE of 4.96 degree celsius and an average MAPE of 27.16%, while SDSM presents an average RMSE of 8.58 degree celsius and an average MAPE of 12.83%. For maximum temperatures forecast, LSTM presents an average RMSE of 4.27 degree celsius and an average MAPE of 11.09 percent, while SDSM presents an average RMSE of 9.93 degree celsius and an average RMSE of 12.07%. Given the results, LSTM may be a suitable alternative approach to downscale global climate simulation models’ output, to improve water management and long-term temperature and precipitations forecasting at local level. Full article

Accurate estimation of vegetation Net Primary Productivity (NPP) has important theoretical and practical significance for ecological environment governance, carbon cycle research, and the rational development and utilization of natural resources. In this study, the spatial characteristics, temporal changes, and driving factors of NPP in the Conventional Lake Chad Basin (CLCB) were based on MODIS data by constructing a Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model and using a combination of Residual trends (RESTREND) and correlation analysis. The results showed that from 2001 to 2020, the NPP of the CLCB decreased annually (1.14 g C/m²), mainly because of overgrazing, deforestation, and large-scale irrigation. We conducted a driving factor analysis and found that the main influencing factor of the NPP of the CLCB is high-intensity human activities, including farmland reclamation and animal husbandry. Although the impact of climate change on NPP is not obvious in the short term, climate change may help recover NPP in the long term. The continued reduction in NPP has greatly increased the difficulty of regreening the Sahel; the increase in population density and rapid urbanization have led are major contributing factors to this. Our findings have important implications for the continued implementation of stringent revegetation policies. However, owing to limited data and methods, only the overall change trend of NPP was obtained, and comprehensive follow-up studies are needed. Full article

Because of climate change and human activity, North and Central Africa are experiencing a significant water shortage. Recent advancements in earth observation technologies have made widespread groundwater monitoring possible. To examine spatial and temporal mass fluctuations caused by groundwater variations in Chad, gravity solutions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), climatic model outputs, and precipitation data are integrated. The results are as follows: (1) The investigated region experienced average annual precipitation (AAP) rates of 351.6, 336.22, and 377.8 mm yr⁻¹, throughout the overall investigation period (04/2002–12/2021), Period I (04/2002–12/2011), and Period II (01/2012–12/2021), respectively. (2) Using the three gravity solutions, the average Terrestrial Water Storage Variations (ΔTWS) values are estimated to be +0.26 ± 0.04, +0.006 ± 0.10, and +0.64 ± 0.12 cm yr⁻¹, for the overall study period, periods I, and II, respectively. (3) Throughout the full period, periods I, and II, the groundwater storage fluctuations (ΔGWS) are calculated to be +0.25 ± 0.04, +0.0001 ± 0.099, and +0.62 ± 0.12 cm yr⁻¹, respectively after removing the soil moisture (ΔSMS) and Lake Chad water level trend values. (4) The country receives an average natural recharge rate of +0.32 ± 0.04, +0.068 ± 0.099, and +0.69 ± 0.12 cm yr⁻¹, throughout the whole period, Periods I, and II, respectively. (5) The southern mountainous regions of Erdi, Ennedi, Tibesti, and Darfur are receiving higher rainfall rates that may recharge the northern part of Chad through the stream networks; in addition to the Lake Chad and the higher rainfall over southern Chad might help recharge the central and southern parts of the country. (6) A preferred groundwater flow path from the Kufra (Chad and Libya) to the Dakhla basin (Egypt) appears to be the Pelusium mega shear system, which trends north-east. The findings suggest that GRACE is useful for monitoring changes in groundwater storage and recharge rates across large areas. Our observation-based methodology provides a unique understanding of monthly ground-water patterns at the state level, which is essential for successful interstate resource allocation, future development, and policy initiatives, as well as having broad scientific implications for arid and semiarid countries. Full article

The fish diversity of the Adamawa lakes is among the most undocumented in Northern Cameroon. Faced with this lack of knowledge, an inventory of ichthyofauna and habitats characterization was conducted in nine lakes. Seven lakes (Assom, Gegouba, Massote, Mbalang, Ngaoundaba, Piou and Tizong) are located in the Sanaga Basin and two (Bini and Dang) are located in the Lake Chad Basin. In order to assess the composition and variation in fish assemblage, eight sampling campaigns were carried out seasonally between 2017 and 2018; they revealed 26 species of fish distributed in 6 orders, 9 families and 16 genera. Communities in Lakes Assom (13 species) and Bini (9 species) were the most diverse. Omnivorous (42.3%) and spawners in open water or on substrates of sand, gravel, rock or plants (69.2%) were the most represented. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling, analysis of similarities (ANOSIM), and similarity percentage analysis (SIMPER) revealed that fish species composition differed significantly among lakes. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) identified temperature, pH, TDS, and conductivity as variables explaining the most variation in fish species. The presence of four endemic species in the Sanaga Basin in lakes Assom, Gegouba, Massote and Piou, shows that these lakes stand out as hotspots for conservation due to the uniqueness of their ichthyofauna. Full article

Model calibration and validation are challenging in poorly gauged basins. We developed and applied a new approach to calibrate hydrological models using distributed geospatial remote sensing data. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated using only twelve months of remote sensing data on actual evapotranspiration (ETa) geospatially distributed in the 37 sub-basins of the Lake Chad Basin in Africa. Global sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify influential model parameters by applying the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm–version 2 (SUFI-2), included in the SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP). This procedure is designed to deal with spatially variable parameters and estimates either multiplicative or additive corrections applicable to the entire model domain, which limits the number of unknowns while preserving spatial variability. The sensitivity analysis led us to identify fifteen influential parameters, which were selected for calibration. The optimized parameters gave the best model performance on the basis of the high Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and determination coefficient (R²). Four sets of remote sensing ETa data products were applied in model calibration, i.e., ETMonitor, GLEAM, SSEBop, and WaPOR. Overall, the new approach of using remote sensing ETa for a limited period of time was robust and gave a very good performance, with R² > 0.9, NSE > 0.8, and KGE > 0.75 applying to the SWAT ETa vs. the ETMonitor ETa and GLEAM ETa. The ETMonitor ETa was finally adopted for further model applications. The calibrated SWAT model was then validated during 2010–2015 against remote sensing data on total water storage change (TWSC) with acceptable performance, i.e., R² = 0.57 and NSE = 0.55, and remote sensing soil moisture data with R² and NSE greater than 0.85. Full article

Inadequate climate data stations often make hydrological modelling a rather challenging task in data-sparse regions. Gridded climate data can be used as an alternative; however, their accuracy in replicating the climatology of the region of interest with low levels of uncertainty is important to water resource planning. This study utilised several performance metrics and multi-criteria decision making to assess the performance of the widely used gridded precipitation and temperature data against quality-controlled observed station records in the Lake Chad basin. The study’s findings reveal that the products differ in their quality across the selected performance metrics, although they are especially promising with regards to temperature. However, there are some inherent weaknesses in replicating the observed station data. Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing precipitation showed the worst performance, with Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.13–0.50, a mean modified index of agreement of 0.68, and a similarity coefficient SU = 0.365, relative to other products with satisfactory performance across all stations. There were varying degrees of mismatch in unidirectional precipitation and temperature trends, although they were satisfactory in replicating the hydro-climatic information with a low level of uncertainty. Assessment based on multi-criteria decision making revealed that the Climate Research Unit, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, and Climate Prediction Centre precipitation data and the Climate Research Unit and Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing temperature data exhibit better performance in terms of similarity, and are recommended for application in hydrological impact studies—especially in the quantification of projected climate hazards and vulnerabilities for better water policy decision making in the Lake Chad basin. Full article

We present an integrated information system needed to address the climate-water-migration-conflict nexus in the Congo Basin. It is based on a rigorous and multidisciplinary methodological approach that consists of designing appropriate tools for field surveys and data collection campaigns, data analysis, creating a statistical database and creating a web interface with the aim to make this information system publicly available for users and stakeholders. The information system developed is a structured and organized set of quantitative and qualitative data on the climate-water-migration-conflict nexus and gender, consisting of primary data collected during field surveys. It contains 250 aggregated variables or 575 disaggregated variables, all grouped into 15 thematic areas, including identification; socio-demographic characteristics; access to resources; perception of climate change; perception of migration; financial inclusion (savings, access to credit and circulation of money); domination and control on water resources, land ownership and property rights, conflict resolution and community resilience; water uses; vulnerability to climate change; housing, household assets and household expenditure; food security; health, hygiene and sanitation; environmental risk management; women’s economic autonomy; and water transfer from the Congo Basin to Lake Chad. The information system can be used to model and understand the interface of human-environment interactions, and develop scenarios necessary to address the challenges of climate change and resilient development, while supporting key policy areas and strategies to foster effective stakeholder participation to ensure management and governance of climate and natural resources in the Congo Basin. Full article

The present study investigated the effect of biomass burning on the water cycle using a case study of the Chari–Logone Catchment of the Lake Chad Basin (LCB). The Chari–Logone catchment was selected because it supplies over 90% of the water input to the lake, which is the largest basin in central Africa. Two water balance simulations, one considering burning and one without, were compared from the years 2003 to 2011. For a more comprehensive assessment of the effects of burning, albedo change, which has been shown to have a significant impact on a number of environmental factors, was used as a model input for calculating potential evapotranspiration (ET). Analysis of the burning scenario showed that burning grassland, which comprises almost 75% of the total Chari–Logone land cover, causes increased ET and runoff during the dry season (November–March). Recent studies have demonstrated that there is an increasing trend in the LCB of converting shrubland, grassland, and wetlands to cropland. This change from grassland to cropland has the potential to decrease the amount of water available to water bodies during the winter. All vegetative classes in a burning scenario showed a decrease in ET during the wet season. Although a decrease in annual precipitation in global circulation processes such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation would cause droughts and induce wildfires in the Sahel, the present study shows that a decrease in ET by the human-induced burning would cause a severe decrease in precipitation as well. Full article

The Lake Chad region is facing a nexus of interconnected problems including fragility, violent conflict, forced displacement, and scarcity of water and other resources, further aggravated by climate change. Focusing on northeast Nigeria, this study aims to answer the following questions: (1) What role does access to water and farming play in out-migration and return in northeast Nigeria? (2) What is the potential of tensions between internally displaced persons (IDPs) and host communities? Data for this study were collected between March and May 2019 by interviewing 304 local residents and IDPs in northeast Nigeria, as well as experts on migration, environmental, humanitarian and conflict-related issues in research centers and governmental institutions in Abuja. Given the pronounced water scarcity in the region, the results show that between 47% and 95% of rural community members interviewed in northeast Nigeria would be willing to migrate in cases of water scarcity. At the time of study, only 2.5% to 7% of respondents had migrated previously in response to water scarcity, indicating that insecurity and conflict were, however, more relevant drivers of displacement. Regarding our second research question, we find a potential for tensions between IDPs and host communities, as 85% of the interviewed host community members oppose the presence of the IDPs. Hence, measures are needed to improve relations between the two groups. In order to avoid a future scenario where water scarcity becomes a significant driver of migration, efficient management of water resources is paramount. Such action would not only address the issue of migration, but also strengthen the resilience of communities in northern Nigeria. Full article