Search Results (288)

An empirical model of the kinetics of Hydrogen-Induced Cracking (HIC) in API 5L steels was derived using the best-fit equation for experimental data obtained from cathodic charging tests. The model represents the growth of both individual and interconnecting cracks, using a double exponential equation known as the Gumbel distribution. Current density was the main independent input variable, as it is related to the hydrogen influx during the cathodic charging experiment. The results indicated that in the initial hours of cathodic charging most of the available HIC nucleation sites are activated, the growth of these individual cracks being the main contribution to the overall kinetics. Further crack growth is due to the interconnection of individual cracks, decreasing the growth rate until it becomes nearly zero. The proposed model is used in a simulation algorithm that accurately describes the complete HIC kinetics, for both short- and long-term hydrogen charging exposure, reproducing the effects of applied current density on the total cracked area and growth rates. Finally, the simulation algorithm adequately predicts the spatial distribution of HIC in a bidimensional plane that emulates the detection of HIC by C-scan ultrasonic inspection. Full article

Proportional, fair scheduling in OFDM-based vehicle-to-everything (V2X) uplink causes the resource-block allocation of each vehicle to vary from slot to slot, yet conventional semantic encoders produce a fixed number of output tokens regardless of the instantaneous channel capacity. When the encoder output exceeds the slot budget, transmitted features are truncated and the resulting federated learning gradient is corrupted—a problem that affected 23% of training rounds for non-line-of-sight vehicles in our experiments. The difficulty is worsened by a spatial pattern common in urban deployments: vehicles at congested intersections suffer the poorest propagation conditions while carrying the training data most relevant to safety, and throughput-driven client selection excludes them in favor of vehicles with strong channels but uninformative scenes. We address both issues within a single framework for OFDM-based V2X federated learning. On the transmission side, a Sensing-Guided Adaptive Modulation (SGAM) module derives a per-slot token budget from the current resource-block allocation and selects tokens through differentiable Gumbel-TopK pruning with a hard capacity clip, so the transmitted token count stays within the slot budget. On the scheduling side, a Channel-Decoupled Federated Learning (CDFL) module partitions clients independently by channel quality and data complexity, selects diverse representatives per partition via facility location optimization, and corrects for partition-size imbalance through inverse propensity weighting during model aggregation. Experiments on NuScenes with 20 non-IID vehicular clients under realistic OFDM channel simulation demonstrate a Macro-F1 of 0.710 (+8.7 points over the Oort-adapted baseline), zero budget violations throughout training, and a 75% reduction in training variance; the worst-class F1 more than doubles relative to FedAvg. Full article

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) deployed in agricultural and industrial environments require high reliability to ensure continuous monitoring and data transmission. This study presents a reliability analysis of a hybrid WSN system comprising four series-connected subsystems: (1) the central processing unit, (2) sensor nodes in cluster A, (3) sensor nodes in cluster B, and (4) communication relay units. The system operates under a k-out-of-n: G mechanism, where subsystems 2 and 3 require at least one operational unit, while subsystem 4 requires at least two. Whereas unit failures follow exponential distributions, repair processes are modeled using either general distributions or Gumbel–Hougaard copula-based approaches to capture dependencies among multiple repair units. Using Laplace transforms and supplementary variable techniques, we evaluate system reliability metrics and demonstrate that copula-based repair strategies significantly improve availability and the expected profit function. Furthermore, we propose a reduction technique governed by a factor $\rho$ that decreases component failure rates, thereby enhancing overall system reliability relative to the baseline configuration. Full article

Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves are the cornerstone of hydraulic infrastructure design, yet standard methodologies often fail to account for the complex dependence structure of rainfall characteristics and the non-stationary effects of climate change. This study develops a robust Regional Copula Framework for the Kastoria Lake basin, Greece, utilizing sub-hourly rainfall records from four meteorological stations (2007–2024). We employ a forensic data quality control process to pool 277 independent storm events. Unlike traditional approaches, our analysis demonstrates that the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution (ξ = 0.348) significantly outperforms the standard Lognormal distribution in modeling heavy-tailed rainfall intensities. The dependence between storm duration and intensity was found to be consistently negative (τ = −0.35), a structure best captured by the Rotated Gumbel (90°) copula, which physically reflects the region’s convective storm dynamics. Trend analysis revealed a statistically significant decrease in peak intensity (τ = −0.14) coupled with an increase in storm duration (τ = 0.22), a hydro-climatic shift that contrasts with increasing intensity trends reported in the wider Balkan region. These findings suggest a regime transition from flash-flood dominance to volume-critical events, necessitating updated design criteria that integrate both multivariate dependence and local climatic non-stationarity. Full article

Rainfall is a significant input for several engineering designs such as hydraulic structures, culverts, bridges and ducts, rainfall water sewer, and highway drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of extreme daily rainfall of each arid environment’s region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for designing and analyzing engineering structures and agricultural planning. This paper aims to assess the best-fitting distribution to estimate the design of rainfall depth (XT) and maximum rainfall values for different return periods (2, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 150). This study used extreme daily rainfall historical data collected in period of 1970–2020, collected from four rainfall gauge stations nearby the Wadi Al-Aqiq that are selected for analysis; they are Al Faqir (J109), Umm Al Birak (J112), Madinah Munawara (M001), and Bir Al Mashi (M103). The methodology approved in this paper examined four frequency distributions, namely: GEV (Generalised Extreme Value), Gumbel, Weibull, and Pearson type III to identify the most suitable and extreme storm design depth corresponding to different return periods. The results demonstrate that GEV and Pearson Type 3 produce higher extremes values, while the Weibull method is commonly suggested in the HYFRAN-PLUS MODEL (DSS) for criterion suitability. The findings for the 100-year storm design demonstrate that extreme values generated by the Hyfran-Plus model are higher than the decision support system (DSS). All (DSS) comparative values are less than the maximum historical data from 1970–2020, except the Al Faqir station (DSS), which has a value of 79.6 mm that exceeds the historical maximum of 71 mm. This study will provide advantageous information about the study area for water resources planners, farmers, and urban engineers to assess water availability and create storage. Full article

This study collected 155 sets of test data for granite residual soils from the Fujian–Guangdong region and applied the chi-square test to analyze the distributions of eight common physical and mechanical parameters. Drained triaxial tests were then simulated using the Unified Hardening (UH) model, and a Sobol global sensitivity analysis of model parameters was conducted based on the distributions of soil properties. The results show that natural density and cohesion approximately follow Weibull distributions; void ratio, liquid limit and plastic limit follow lognormal distributions; water content and internal friction angle follow normal distributions; and plasticity index follows a Gumbel distribution. The Sobol analysis indicates that the critical state deviatoric stress mainly depends on the critical state stress ratio (M), the critical state volumetric strain is jointly controlled by M and the slope of the normal compression line (λ). The overall evolution of deviatoric stress mainly depends on M, and the overall evolution of volumetric strain mainly depends on λ, whereas Poisson’s ratio (ν) has little influence on the soil stress–strain response. These findings provide references for parameter selection and numerical simulation of granite residual soils in the Fujian–Guangdong region. Full article

Extreme sea levels along the Mexican coasts pose an increasing risk to coastal infrastructure and communities, particularly under the combined influence of tropical cyclones and ongoing sea-level rise. This study analyzes tide-gauge records from the Mexican Pacific and Gulf of Mexico–Caribbean coasts to characterize the statistical behavior and seasonal modulation of extreme sea-level residuals. Astronomical tides were removed through harmonic analysis to isolate the meteorological residual associated with storm-driven processes. Extreme events were evaluated using complementary extreme-value frameworks, including Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions applied to monthly maxima and a Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) approach applied to the continuous residual series with temporal declustering and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) fitting. While both approaches consistently capture regional patterns, the POT–GPD framework is adopted as the primary basis for return-level estimation due to its explicit representation of event-scale extremes. The results reveal marked regional variability. Pacific stations exhibit bounded or near-Gumbel behavior (ξ ≈ −0.30 to −0.02) and a strong seasonal concentration of extremes during the tropical cyclone season. In contrast, Gulf of Mexico–Caribbean stations display higher absolute extremes and a broader seasonal footprint, with Veracruz showing a tendency toward heavier-tailed behavior (ξ ≈ 0.13). Return levels for a 25-year return period range from approximately 0.85–0.95 m in the Pacific to about 1.7 m in Veracruz. Longer return periods (e.g., 100 years) exceed 2.2 m in Veracruz but are associated with substantial uncertainty due to record-length limitations. The analysis of ENSO variability indicates that ENSO acts primarily as a secondary modulator of background sea-level variability rather than a deterministic driver of extreme events, with the largest anomalies typically associated with tropical cyclone activity. Overall, the results demonstrate that extreme sea levels along the Mexican coasts are governed by region-specific forcing and tail behavior requiring localized extreme-value modeling strategies. The proposed framework provides a robust and reproducible baseline for coastal hazard assessment and supports the integration of sea-level rise into future risk and design analyses. Full article

Hydrological drought poses a major threat to water security-y in semi-arid regions, where prolonged runoff deficits can severely affect reservoir reliability and ecosystem sustainability. This study presents a bivariate probabilistic framework to characterize long-term hydrological drought risk in the Wadi Sahouat basin (northwestern Algeria) using the 12-month Standardized Runoff Index (SRI-12) for the period 1973/74–2014/15. Drought events were identified through run theory with a threshold level of SRI ≤ −1.0, and some drought characteristics, duration, and severity were extracted. Marginal distributions were fitted and evaluated using AIC, BIC, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests, leading to the selection of the Weibull distribution for both variables. The dependence structure between duration and severity was modeled using Archimedean copulas, and the Gumbel copula provided the best fit at both hydrometric stations, indicating significant upper-tail dependence. Univariate and bivariate return periods were estimated for target intervals from 10 to 200 years. Results demonstrate that multivariate return periods substantially differ from univariate estimates, particularly for extreme events, highlighting the compounded risk of prolonged and severe droughts. Full article

Reliable estimation of extreme rainfall is essential for hydraulic design and flood risk mitigation, particularly in arid regions where rainfall exhibits strong temporal and spatial variability. This study presents a statistical framework for developing rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, complemented by a machine learning-based assessment of model bias and performance. The analysis was conducted using data from ten rainfall stations located within or near the Wadi Al-Rummah Basin. Annual maximum series (AMS) from 1969 to 2024 were first reconstructed to address missing years using a modified normal ratio method (NRM) combined with nearest-station selection, ensuring spatial consistency while preserving station-specific rainfall characteristics. Six probability distributions (Weibull, Gumbel, gamma, lognormal, generalized extreme value (GEV), and generalized Pareto) were fitted to each station, and the best-fit distribution was identified using multiple goodness-of-fit (GOF) criteria, including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) test, Anderson–Darling (A-D) test, root mean square error (RMSE), chi-square (χ²) statistic, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the coefficient of determination (R²). Statistical IDF curves were then developed for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min and return periods from 2 to 1000 years. To evaluate the robustness of the statistically derived IDF curves, three machine learning (ML) models, multiple linear regression (MLR), regression random forest (RRF), and multilayer feed-forward neural network (MFFNN), were trained as surrogate models using duration, return period, and station geographic attributes as predictor variables. Model performance was evaluated using RMSE, MAE, and mean bias metrics across stations and return periods. The lognormal distribution emerged as the best-fit model for four stations, while the Gumbel and gamma distributions were selected for two stations each. Overall, no single probability distribution consistently outperformed others, indicating station-dependent behavior. Among the machine learning models, the MFFNN achieved the closest agreement with statistical IDF estimates ($RMSE\approx 0.97$, $MAE\approx 0.65$, $bias\approx -0.02$), followed by RRF and MLR based on global average performance across all stations and return periods. The proposed framework offers a reliable approach for rainfall IDF development and evaluation in arid region watersheds. Full article

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have posed more geohazards worldwide. It is therefore crucial to quantify and map risk to reduce disaster-related losses. The main objective of this study is to propose a quantitative framework to conduct risk assessment of buildings and infrastructures impacted by geohazards. A debris flow hazard in Tianjin, North China was taken as a case study. A physically based model and the Gumbel extreme value distribution were utilized to construct a range of extreme rainfall and runoff scenarios. The FLO-2D and ABAQUS software were subsequently employed to simulate the surging behavior of the debris flow and assess the structural vulnerability of buildings, respectively. Furthermore, the number of elements at risk and economic values were estimated to generate risk maps. The results revealed that variations in peak discharge in the channel evidently affected flow velocity and depth, thus elevating the debris flow intensity and the likelihood of the materials threatening buildings. The stiffness degradation of concrete was strategically used as the indicator to quantify structure vulnerability and effectively present the dynamic responses under the impacts of the debris flow. Under a 100-year return period rainfall scenario, the proportion of very high- and high-risk areas reached 31%, with the estimated economic loss approximately ¥167.7 million. This highlighted the critical role that extreme rainfall played in shaping both the spatial distribution and severity of debris flow risks. The proposed method provides a scientific basis for enhancing the resilience of mountainous regions to compound natural disasters exacerbated by climate change. Full article

Populations in areas with limited hydrological data face ongoing challenges related to water supply and management, with climate change increasing the risks of floods and droughts. New remote sensing and modeling tools can improve land and water management in these regions, especially when combined with limited ground measurements and local knowledge of extreme events. This study examined hydrological extremes and land cover change impacts in the Grande Rivière du Nord watershed, Haiti, using satellite and model-based data. Precipitation extremes were obtained from the Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG; 2000–2025), and streamflow data were sourced from the Group on Earth Observation Global Water Sustainability (GEOGLOWS) system and bias-corrected with a small historical hydrologic database. Annual maximum series were created and fitted with Gumbel, Lognormal, and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions using the L-moment method. Goodness-of-fit tests identified the best models, and precipitation amounts for return periods of 2–100 years were estimated. The precipitation maxima aligned with locally reported extreme events, and GEV provided the best overall fit. Using the bias-corrected streamflow, a hydrologic model was calibrated and validated and then applied to land cover change scenarios. Simulations suggest that moderate land-use change can increase peak flows beyond channel capacity, raising flood risk and informing adaptation planning in northern Haiti, which has limited data. Full article

Traditional machine learning models for concrete compressive strength prediction provide only single-value estimates without quantifying the probability of meeting design requirements, leaving engineers unable to make risk-informed decisions. This study addresses this critical limitation by developing a novel probabilistic prediction framework that integrates explainable machine learning with Copula-based joint distribution modeling. Using a dataset of 1030 concrete samples with curing ages ranging from 1 to 365 days, we first established an XGBoost 2.1.4 prediction model achieving R² = 0.9211 (RMSE = 4.51 MPa) on the test set. SHAP 0.49.1 (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis identified curing age (33.3%) and water–cement ratio (28.8%) as the dominant features, together accounting for 62.1% of predictive importance. These two controllable engineering parameters were then selected as core variables for probabilistic modeling. The key innovation lies in integrating Copula-based dependence modeling with explainable machine learning (XGBoost–SHAP) to quantify the compliance probability of concrete strength under specific mix designs and curing conditions, thereby supporting risk-informed quality control decisions. Through systematic comparison of five Copula families (Gaussian, Student t, Clayton, Gumbel, and Frank), we identified optimal dependence structures: Gaussian Copula (ρ = −0.54) for the water–cement ratio–strength relationship and Clayton Copula for the age–strength relationship, revealing asymmetric tail dependence patterns invisible to conventional correlation analysis. The three-dimensional Copula model enables engineers to estimate compliance probability—the likelihood of concrete achieving target strength under specific mix designs and curing conditions. We propose an illustrative three-tier decision rule for construction quality management based on the compliance probability P: P ≥ 0.95 (high-confidence approval), 0.80 ≤ P < 0.95 (warning zone requiring enhanced monitoring), and P < 0.80 (high risk suggesting corrective actions such as mix adjustment or extended curing), noting that these thresholds can be recalibrated to project-specific risk tolerance and local specifications. This framework supports a paradigm shift from reactive “mix-then-test” quality control to proactive “predict-then-decide” construction management, providing quantitative risk assessment tools previously unavailable in deterministic prediction approaches. Full article

In finance, accurately modelling the tail behaviour of extreme log returns is critical for understanding and mitigating risks across diverse asset classes. This research employs extreme value theory to identify the most suitable probability distributions (i.e., generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), Gumbel (GUM), generalized Pareto (GP), and reverse Gumbel (REV)) and estimation methods (least squares (LS), weighted least squares (WLS), maximum likelihood (ML), L-moments (LM), and relative least squares (RLS)) for modelling the tail behaviour of log returns from two financial datasets, each representing a distinct asset class with high (Ethereum, a digital asset class) and low (South African government bonds, a fixed-income asset class) volatility levels. The performance of each model and estimation method (25 different possibilities) is evaluated through goodness-of-fit and risk measures as the study aims to determine the optimal approach for each volatility level. Results from ranking different models and estimation methods show that across both asset classes, ML consistently emerges as the top-performing estimation method across all distributions. LM serves as a solid secondary option, while LS occasionally excels under GLO’s weekly minima for low volatility, whereas RLS occasionally surpasses ML in GLO’s monthly minima for high volatility. Finally, WLS uniquely outperforms under GEV and GLO’s monthly minima under low volatility. Full article

An extraordinary episode is a torrential rainfall event that produces significant societal impacts, which poses a major natural hazard in the western Mediterranean, particularly along the Valencia coast. This study evaluates the feasibility and added value of an explicitly spatial approach for estimating return periods of extraordinary precipitation in the Júcar and Turia basins, moving beyond traditional point-based or micro-catchment analyses. Our methodology consists of progressive spatial aggregation of time series within a basin to better estimate return periods of exceeding specific catastrophic rainfall thresholds. This technique allows us to compare 10 min rainfall data of a reference station (e.g., Turís, València, 29 October 2024 catastrophe) with long-term annual maxima from 98 stations. Temporal structure is characterized using the fractal–intermittency n-index, while tail behavior is modeled using several extreme-value distributions (Gumbel, GEV, Weibull, Gamma, and Pareto) and guided by empirical errors. Results show that $n\approx 0.3$–0.4 is consistent for extreme rainfall, while return periods systematically decrease as stations are added, stabilizing with about 15–20 stations, once the relevant spatial heterogeneity is sampled. Specifically, the probability of exceeding extraordinary thresholds is between 3 and 10 times higher for the areal than the point approach, so recurrence of a catastrophe would be once a few decades rather than centuries. Overall, the results demonstrate that spatially integrated return-period estimation is operational, physically consistent, and better suited for basin-scale risk assessment than purely point-based approaches, providing a relevant baseline for interpreting recent catastrophic events in the context of ongoing climatic warming in the Mediterranean region. Full article

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with self-play has emerged as a promising paradigm for solving combinatorial optimization (CO) problems. The recently proposed Gumbel AlphaZero Plan-to-Play (GAZ PTP) framework adopts a competitive training setup between a learning agent and an opponent to tackle classical CO tasks such as the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP). However, in complex and multi-constrained environments like the Electric Vehicle Routing Problem (EVRP), standard self-play often suffers from opponent mismatch: when the opponent is either too weak or too strong, the resulting learning signal becomes ineffective. To address this challenge, we introduce Two-Stage Self-Play GAZ PTP (TSS GAZ PTP), a novel DRL method designed to maintain adaptive and effective learning pressure throughout the training process. In the first stage, the learning agent, guided by Gumbel Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), competes against a greedy opponent that follows the best historical policy. As training progresses, the framework transitions to a second stage in which both agents employ Gumbel MCTS, thereby establishing a dynamically balanced competitive environment that encourages continuous strategy refinement. The primary objective of this work is to develop a robust self-play mechanism capable of handling the high-dimensional constraints inherent in real-world routing problems. We first validate our approach on the TSP, a benchmark used in the original GAZ PTP study, and then extend it to the multi-constrained EVRP, which incorporates practical limitations including battery capacity, time windows, vehicle load limits, and charging infrastructure availability. The experimental results show that TSS GAZ PTP consistently outperforms existing DRL methods, with particularly notable improvements on large-scale instances. Full article