Observational and Model-Based Extreme Precipitation Analysis

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 26 July 2026 | Viewed by 871

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Guest Editor
Environmental and Health Sciences, Spelman College, 350 Spelman Lane, Atlanta, GA 30314, USA
Interests: hydrological and hydraulic analysis and modeling; hydroclimatology; sustainable water resources management; risk analysis and decision making
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Hydrological extreme events (including heavy precipitation) have the potential to cause disruption in ecosystem function, compromise infrastructure, and public safety. Impacts from such extreme events include significant damage to bridges, culverts, levees, and other national infrastructure, resulting in economic losses, population displacements, and a variety of public health issues. Furthermore, extreme precipitation is expected to intensify with global warming. To this end, understanding the observed changes in extreme precipitation events and anticipating future risks are critical in developing ecosystems resilient to extremes. This Special Issue of Atmosphere focuses on extreme precipitation analysis using innovative statistical methods focused on trends, modeling, and dynamics. Particularly, we welcome topics of observational and model-based studies that could provide useful information on extreme precipitation under changing climate, as well as dynamical and synoptic characteristics. Studies are welcome across global to local scales, whether methodological or applied, focusing on physical principle-based and/or data analysis-based research (including machine learning).

Dr. Nirajan Dhakal
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • extreme precipitation risk
  • climate change
  • observational and model-based studies
  • machine learning
  • dynamical and synoptic characteristics

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

16 pages, 1232 KB  
Article
How Frequent Is an Extraordinary Episode of Precipitation? Spatially Integrated Frequency in the Júcar–Turia System (Spain)
by Pol Pérez-De-Gregorio and Robert Monjo
Atmosphere 2026, 17(2), 157; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17020157 - 31 Jan 2026
Viewed by 564
Abstract
An extraordinary episode is a torrential rainfall event that produces significant societal impacts, which poses a major natural hazard in the western Mediterranean, particularly along the Valencia coast. This study evaluates the feasibility and added value of an explicitly spatial approach for estimating [...] Read more.
An extraordinary episode is a torrential rainfall event that produces significant societal impacts, which poses a major natural hazard in the western Mediterranean, particularly along the Valencia coast. This study evaluates the feasibility and added value of an explicitly spatial approach for estimating return periods of extraordinary precipitation in the Júcar and Turia basins, moving beyond traditional point-based or micro-catchment analyses. Our methodology consists of progressive spatial aggregation of time series within a basin to better estimate return periods of exceeding specific catastrophic rainfall thresholds. This technique allows us to compare 10 min rainfall data of a reference station (e.g., Turís, València, 29 October 2024 catastrophe) with long-term annual maxima from 98 stations. Temporal structure is characterized using the fractal–intermittency n-index, while tail behavior is modeled using several extreme-value distributions (Gumbel, GEV, Weibull, Gamma, and Pareto) and guided by empirical errors. Results show that n0.3–0.4 is consistent for extreme rainfall, while return periods systematically decrease as stations are added, stabilizing with about 15–20 stations, once the relevant spatial heterogeneity is sampled. Specifically, the probability of exceeding extraordinary thresholds is between 3 and 10 times higher for the areal than the point approach, so recurrence of a catastrophe would be once a few decades rather than centuries. Overall, the results demonstrate that spatially integrated return-period estimation is operational, physically consistent, and better suited for basin-scale risk assessment than purely point-based approaches, providing a relevant baseline for interpreting recent catastrophic events in the context of ongoing climatic warming in the Mediterranean region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Observational and Model-Based Extreme Precipitation Analysis)
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