Search Results (648)

The present study provides a comprehensive nighttime contrail characterization combining Raman lidar, ADS-B flight data, and ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis over southern France. Observations of different case studies of contrail formation and development throughout their lifetimes provide valuable insights into the contrails’ morphological, microphysical, and optical properties, persistence, and dispersion. We present a multisource methodology to detect and characterize nighttime aircraft contrails over the Observatory of Haute-Provence (OHP) in France. The determination of contrail signatures was performed by applying sensitivity analyses by spatiotemporal thresholding and clustering for contrail detection. Optimizing the thresholds permits the improvement of contrail detection and the reduction of unnecessary noise. The optimal combination of these thresholds, which best reduces false positives and negatives, was SR = 2.1, time = 7.2 min, and altitude = 0.3 km. Subsequent merging of the spots produces persistent contrail signatures at altitudes of 8.7–10.3 km, with thicknesses of 0.1–1.1 km, widths of 2–2.8 km, and optical depths of 0.05–0.40. Contrail optical depth correlates significantly with geometrical thickness and width, which highlights the interplay between contrail morphology and ambient thermodynamic conditions. Our methodology demonstrates the value of combining lidar and flight data for contrail characterization using lidar measurements, flight data, and meteorological information. Full article

Changes in atmospheric circulation can be influenced by the collapse characteristics of the polar vortex, a significant system in the Northern Hemisphere. This study reveals the spatiotemporal evolution and causative mechanisms of the collapse of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex, as well as the polar vortex collapse criteria, Mann–Kendall test, mutation year extraction, and physical mechanism analyses, based on the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate (ERA5) data for 1980–2024. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The collapse events, which primarily occurred in spring, and the collapse time exhibited a U-shaped trend. (2) The collapse period exhibited significant spatiotemporal nonuniformity, with shorter periods in 10–100 hPa, larger variations in 100–300 hPa, and longer periods in 300–500 hPa. (3) The collapse mutation propagated downward to lower layers, beginning in 10–30 hPa and concentrating between 1995 and 2005. (4) The momentum flux and heat flux exhibit meridionally concentrated structures in the middle–lower stratosphere. The transition layer forms a region of momentum and energy accumulation. In the lower levels, the heat flux weakens. (5) The polar vortex collapse results from enhanced lower-stratospheric instability, weakened transition-layer disturbances, and upward energy transfer from low-level convergence, together forming a characteristic U-shaped collapse structure. Full article

Air pollution is an important environmental issue that affects social development and human life. Atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is the primary pollutant affecting the air quality of most cities in the authors’ country. It can cause severe haze, reduce air visibility and cleanliness, and affect people’s daily lives and health. Therefore, it has become a primary research object. Ground monitoring and satellite remote sensing are currently the main ways to obtain PM_2.5 data. Satellite remote sensing technology has the advantages of macro-scale, dynamic, and real-time functioning, which can make up for the limitations of the uneven distribution and high cost of ground monitoring stations. Therefore, it provides an effective means to establish a mathematical model—based on atmospheric aerosol optical thickness data obtained through satellite remote sensing and PM_2.5 concentration data measured by ground monitoring stations—in order to estimate the PM_2.5 concentration and temporal and spatial distribution. This study takes the Yangtze River Delta region as the research area. Based on the measured PM_2.5 concentration data obtained from 184 ground monitoring stations in 2023, the newly released sixth version of the MODIS aerosol optical depth product obtained via the US Terra and Aqua satellites is used as the main prediction factor. Dark-pixel AOD data with a 3 km resolution and dark-blue AOD data with a 10 km resolution are combined with the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis meteorological, land use, road network, and population density data and other auxiliary prediction factors, and XGBoost and LSTM models are used to achieve high-precision estimation of the spatiotemporal changes in PM_2.5 concentration in the Yangtze River Delta region. Full article

To quantitatively assess the storm surge induced by Super Typhoon Doksuri (2023) along the complex coastline of Fujian Province, a high-resolution Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) was developed, driven by a refined Holland–ERA5 hybrid wind field with integrated physical corrections. The hybrid approach retains the spatiotemporal coherence of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis in the far field, while incorporating explicit inner-core adjustments for quadrant asymmetry, sea-surface-temperature dependency, and bounded decay after landfall. A series of numerical experiments were conducted, including paired tidal-only and full storm-forcing simulations, along with a systematic sensitivity ensemble in which bottom-friction parameters were perturbed and the anomalous (typhoon-related) wind component was scaled by factors ranging from 0.8 to 1.2. Static sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios (+0.3 m, +0.5 m, +1.0 m) were imposed to evaluate their influence on extreme water levels. Storm surge extremes were analyzed using a multi-scale coastal buffer framework, comparing two extreme extraction methods: element-mean followed by time-maximum, and node-maximum then assigned to elements. The model demonstrates high skill in reproducing astronomical tides (Pearson r = 0.979–0.993) and hourly water level series (Pearson r > 0.98) at key validation stations. Results indicate strong spatial heterogeneity in the sensitivity of surge levels to both bottom friction and wind intensity. While total peak water levels rise nearly linearly with SLR, the storm surge component itself exhibits a nonlinear response. The choice of extreme-extraction method significantly influences design values, with the node-based approach yielding peak values 0.8% to 4.5% higher than the cell-averaged method. These findings highlight the importance of using physically motivated adjustments to wind fields, extreme-value analysis across multiple coastal buffer scales, and uncertainty quantification in future SLR-informed coastal risk assessments. By integrating analytical, physics-based inner-core corrections with sensitivity experiments and multi-scale analysis, this study provides an enhanced framework for storm surge modeling suited to engineering and coastal management applications. Full article

Precipitable water vapor (PWV) is an important component of atmospheric spatial parameters and plays a vital role in meteorological studies. In this study, PWV retrieval by real-time precise point positioning (PPP) technique is validated by using global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observations and four real-time products from different analysis centers, which are Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), Internation GNSS Service (IGS), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), and Wuhan University (WHU). To comparatively analyze the performance of each scenario, the single-system (GPS/Galileo/BDS3), and multi-system (GPS + Galileo + BDS) PPP techniques are applied for zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) and PWV retrieval. Then, the ZTD and PWV are evaluated by comparison with the IGS final ZTD product, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data, and radiosondes observations provided by the University of Wyoming. Experimental results demonstrate that the root mean squares error (RMS) of ZTD differences from multi-system solutions are below 11 mm with respect to the four-product series and the RMS of PWV differences are below 3.5 mm. As for single-system solution, the IGS real-time products lead to the worst accuracy compared with the other products. Besides the scenario of BDS3 observations with IGS real-time products, the RMS of ZTD differences from the GPS-only and Galileo-only solutions are all less than 15 mm compared to the four-product series, as well as the RMS of PWV differences is under 5 mm, which meets the accuracy requirement for GNSS atmosphere sounding. Full article

The heating and cooling sector accounts for nearly half of Europe’s energy consumption and remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, emphasizing the urgent need for decarbonization. Simultaneously, the global shift toward renewable energy is accelerating, alongside growing interest in decentralized energy systems where prosumers play a significant role. In this context, district heating and cooling networks, serving nearly 100 million people, are strategically important. In next-generation systems, thermal prosumers can feed-in locally produced or industrial waste heat into the network via bidirectional substations, allowing energy flows in both directions and enhancing system efficiency. The complexity of these networks, with numerous users and interacting heat flows, requires advanced predictive models to manage large volumes of data and multiple variables. This work presents the development of a predictive model based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting excess thermal renewable energy from a bidirectional substation. The numerical model of a substation prototype designed by ENEA provided the physical data for the ANN training. Thirteen years of simulation results, combined with extensive meteorological data from ECMWF, were used to train and to test a multi-step ANN capable of forecasting the six-hour thermal power feed-in horizon using data from the preceding 24 h, improving operational planning and control strategies. The ANN model demonstrates high predictive capability and robustness in replicating thermal power dynamics. Accuracy remains high for horizons up to six hours, with MAE ranging from 279 W to 1196 W, RMSE from 662 W to 3096 W, and R² from 0.992 to 0.823. Overall, the ANN satisfactorily reproduces the behavior of the bidirectional substation even over extended forecasting horizons. Full article

On the morning of 4 April 2025, a rare formation of Cirrostratus undulatus homomutatus was observed over Barcelona. This variety of the homomutatus form of the Cirrostratus cloud genus—originating from the transformation of persistent aircraft contrails—has not previously been documented in the International Cloud Atlas or in any scientific publication, making this observation unique within the current literature. The event was visually recorded and meteorologically analyzed using upper-air data from the Barcelona radiosonde and the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at 300 and 500 hPa geopotential heights. Synoptic and thermodynamic analyses revealed a localized region of enhanced wind shear activity coinciding with a thin, moist layer near the tropopause. These conditions likely facilitated the transformation of persistent contrails into cirriform layers exhibiting undulated patterns characteristic of the undulatus variety. This case provides new insight into the microphysical and dynamic mechanisms underlying the evolution of anthropogenic cirriform clouds, contributing to the growing body of knowledge on homomutatus phenomena and their interaction with upper-tropospheric processes. It thus represents the first formal documentation and meteorological interpretation of Cirrostratus undulatus homomutatus, offering a valuable reference for future observational and classification efforts within the WMO framework. Full article

Wintertime cold air pools (CAPs) are common across the Western United States and result in cold, dense air trapped in valley basins. The CAPs are characterized by a stable atmospheric boundary layer, leading to cold air and low wind speeds. While CAP formation occurs nightly, the CAP conditions can persist into daytime and often last for multiple days (i.e., persistent cold air pool or PCAP), resulting in poor air quality in populated areas. The presence and strength of CAPs can be calculated using data from radiosondes, surface weather stations at varying elevations, and indirectly through air pollution monitors. Because vertical profile data are often limited to twice daily radiosondes, and are spatially sparse, numerical models can be a useful substitute. This work uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWFs) Reanalysis v5 (ERA) atmospheric reanalysis to provide data to classify wintertime CAP events without radiosonde observations. An automated CAP classification method using ERA outputs is evaluated using afternoon radiosonde observations in six cities (Salt Lake City, Utah; Reno, Nevada; Boise, Idaho; Denver, Colorado; Las Vegas, Nevada; Medford, and Oregon). Using this CAP determination method, days with CAP events are analyzed in 13 locations, 6 with radiosonde observations and 7 without, including the Central valley of California. The CAP classification method is evaluated at these 13 locations across the Western US over the study period of 2000–2022. The results show that the ERA model performs similarly to the radiosonde observations when used to identify CAP events. Therefore, ERA can be used to provide a reasonable estimate of CAP conditions when radiosonde data are unavailable. Providing consistent CAP classifications across space and time are necessary for regional scale CAP studies, such as human health effects modeling over large spatial and temporal scales. Full article

Accurate representation of Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) in numerical models is critical over the meteorologically complex Korean Peninsula, yet validation remains a challenge. This study presents a unique airborne validation of hourly PWV from two local Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models—the Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) and the Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS)—and two global reanalysis datasets—the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). We utilize a G-band Water Vapor Radiometer (GVR) and dropsondes, applying a rigorous multi-stage quality control (QC) procedure to ensure data reliability. Two strategies were used: comparing GVR-measured upper-column PWV against model layers and comparing a total-column GVR–dropsonde composite against the models’ total PWV. Our key finding reveals that the ERA5 reanalysis consistently provides the most accurate representation of both upper-air and total column PWV. In contrast, the high-resolution local models exhibit significant dry biases, particularly in moist and cloudy conditions. These results underscore the value of airborne validation and suggest that for water vapor analysis over Korea, ERA5 serves as a more reliable benchmark than local models, highlighting the need to improve humidity assimilation and microphysics in regional systems. Full article

Estimating global radiation (GR) is crucial for assessing solar energy potential, understanding surface energy balance, and forecasting agricultural production. However, several regions require additional monitoring and sparse sensor networks. The ERA5-ECMWF reanalysis is a viable alternative for estimating meteorological elements in unmonitored areas. This study aimed to train an artificial neural network (ANN) model to estimate GR based on ERA5 data and map its distribution in the study area. We utilized GR data from 32 automatic weather stations of the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for model training. The model input consisted of ERA5 air temperature, precipitation data, and top-of-atmosphere solar radiation (R₀) calculated from the latitude and day of the year. The calibrated model demonstrated high accuracy, with Nash–Sutcliffe and Kling–Gupta efficiency indices exceeding 0.99. This enabled the generation of historical time series and maps of GR spatial distribution in the study area. The results demonstrate that—as input for the ANN—ERA5 data enables precise and accurate estimation of GR distribution, even in locations without meteorological stations. Full article

Air quality monitoring and forecasting has been a challenging problem for years. In addition to traditional ground-based observational stations, in recent years there have been more geostationary and polar orbiting satellite observations on air quality. However, evaluation of performance of these observations is lacking, especially for the region of southern China, which is rarely affected by severe sand/dust weather. In the spring of 2025, two events of sand/dust weather, one case of sand/dust spreading to southern China in April and another case of sand/dust confining to northern China in May, provide a good opportunity for detailed case study and examination of the performance of the tools. The surface particulate matter (PM) concentration retrieved from a geostationary satellite, Geostationary Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite—2B (GEO-KOMPSAT-2B, or GK2B), is studied by checking consistency with the analysis of two numerical models: the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service model of the European Centre of Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF-CAMS) and Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment model of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA-CUACE). The former shows comparable PM concentration with satellite observations, while overestimation is found with the latter. It is also found that there may be latitude dependence of the quality of the satellite-based data. To further validate the satellite observation data, it is directly compared with the ground-based station measurements in Hong Kong for the event in mid-April 2025, the performance of satellite data points near Hong Kong is generally satisfactory. For polar orbiting satellite, there is information about the aerosol classification in addition to aerosol optical depth, and the classification result is found to be reasonable by comparison with ground-based observation, though some refinements appear to be necessary. The geostationary satellite images provide high spatial coverage and frequently updated air quality data, which are confirmed to be useful in monitoring the southward spread of sand/dust weather to southern China which is a very rare event. The monitoring can be both qualitative and quantitative. The performance of various monitoring and forecasting tools is examined in details based on the cases. It also forms a reference for the use in operation, and opens up a new era for air quality study for southern China. Full article

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) datasets provide a rich source of climatological data. However, their Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) structure can be a barrier for researchers who are not experienced with specialized data tools or programming languages. To address this challenge, we developed ncPick, a lightweight, Windows-based application designed to make ERA5 data more accessible and easier to use. The software enables users to load NetCDF files, select points of interest manually or through shapefiles, and export the data directly to Comma-separated values (CSV) format for further processing in common tools such as Excel, R, or within ncPick itself. Additional modules allow for quick visualization, descriptive statistics, interpolation, and the generation of time-of-day heatmaps, as well as practical data handling functions such as merging and downsampling CSV files based on the time-axis. Validation tests confirmed that ncPick outputs are consistent with those from established tools (such as Panoply). The toolkit was found to be stable across different Windows systems and suitable for a range of datasets. While it has limitations with very large files and does not include automated data download for version 1 of the software, ncPick offers an accessible solution for researchers, students, and other professionals seeking a reliable and intuitive way to work with ERA5 NetCDF data. Full article

The Huanjing-2A/2B (HJ-2A/2B) satellites are China’s next-generation environmental monitoring satellites, equipped with four visible light wide-swath charge-coupled device (CCD) sensors. These sensors enable the acquisition of 16-m multispectral imagery (16m-MSI) with a swath width of 800 km through field-of-view stitching. However, traditional vicarious calibration techniques are limited by their calibration frequency, making them insufficient for continuous monitoring requirements. To address this challenge, the present study proposes a spectral-angle difference correction-based cross-calibration approach, using the Landsat 8/9 Operational Land Imager (OLI) as the reference sensor to calibrate the HJ-2A/2B CCD sensors. This method improves both radiometric accuracy and temporal frequency. The study utilizes cloud-free image pairs of HJ-2A/2B CCD and Landsat 8/9 OLI, acquired simultaneously at the Dunhuang and Golmud calibration sites between 2021 and 2024, in combination with atmospheric parameters from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) dataset and historical ground-measured spectral reflectance data for cross-calibration. The methodology includes spatial matching and resampling of the image pairs, along with the identification of radiometrically stable homogeneous regions. To account for sensor viewing geometry differences, an observation-angle linear correction model is introduced. Spectral band adjustment factors (SBAFs) are also applied to correct for discrepancies in spectral response functions (SRFs) across sensors. Experimental results demonstrate that the cross-calibration coefficients differ by less than 10% compared to vicarious calibration results from the China Centre for Resources Satellite Data and Application (CRESDA). Additionally, using Sentinel-2 MSI as the reference sensor, the cross-calibration coefficients were independently validated through cross-validation. The results indicate that the radiometrically corrected HJ-2A/2B 16m-MSI CCD data, based on these coefficients, exhibit improved radiometric consistency with Sentinel-2 MSI observations. Further analysis shows that the cross-calibration method significantly enhances radiometric consistency across the HJ-2A/2B 16m-MSI CCD sensors, with radiometric response differences between CCD1 and CCD4 maintained below 3%. Error analysis quantifies the impact of atmospheric parameters and surface reflectance on calibration accuracy, with total uncertainty calculated. The proposed spectral-angle correction-based cross-calibration method not only improves calibration accuracy but also offers reliable technical support for long-term radiometric performance monitoring of the HJ-2A/2B 16m-MSI CCD sensors. Full article

Measuring the long-term trend of PM2.5 mass-concentration in urban environments is essential as it has a direct impact on human health. PM2.5 levels depend not only on the intensity of local emission sources and on imported pollution, but also on meteorological conditions (e.g., anticyclonic versus windy conditions), which leads to yearly variations in mean PM2.5 values. Two datasets available for Paris, France, are considered: measurements from Airparif air quality agency network and from the Pollutrack network of mobile car-based sensors. Also, meteorological parameters coming from ERA5 analysis (ECMWF) are considered. Annual values are calculated using three different statistical methods, which yield different results. For the 2013–2024 period, a clear relationship between wind speed and PM2.5 mass-concentration levels is established. The results show a linear decrease in both concentration and standard deviation for wind speeds in the 0–6 m·s⁻¹ range, followed by nearly stable values for wind speed above 6 m·s⁻¹. This behavior is explained by the dispersive effect of strong winds on air pollution. Under such conditions, which occur about 10% of the time in Paris, the contribution of persistent background sources can be isolated. Using the 6 m·s⁻¹ threshold, the average annual linear decrease in emissions from local sources is estimated at 4.1 and 4.3% per year for the Airparif and Pollutrack data, respectively. Since 2023, the annual background value attributed to emission has been close to 5 µg·m⁻³, in agreement with WHO recommendations. This approach could be used to monitor the effects of regulations on traffic and heating emissions and could be applied to other cities for estimating background pollution levels. Finally, future studies should therefore prioritize number concentrations and size distributions, rather than mass-concentrations. Full article

The Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), recently released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), represents a paradigm shift in global weather prediction by replacing traditional physically based methods with machine learning-based approaches. This study examines the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to differentiate initial and boundary conditions, comparing the new AIFS with two well-established global models: IFS and GFS. The analysis focuses on the implications for air quality applications, particularly the influence of each global model on key meteorological variables involved in pollutant dispersion modelling. While overall forecast accuracy is comparable across models, some differences emerge in the spatial pattern of the wind field and vertical profiles of temperature and wind speed, which can lead to divergent interpretations in source attribution and dispersion pathways. Full article