Special Issue "Hydrological Extremes in a Warming Climate: Nonstationarity, Uncertainties and Impacts"

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Hydrology and Hydrogeology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 April 2021.

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Rajesh R. Shrestha
E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Research Scientist, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
Interests: climate change impacts; water resources; watershed hydrology; hydro-climatology; hydrologic modelling; hydrologic extremes; statistical and machine learning methods
Special Issues and Collections in MDPI journals
Dr. Mohammad Reza Najafi
E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University, Ontario, ON N6A 3K7, Canada
Interests: watershed hydrology; hydroclimatic extremes; climate change impact assessment; detection and attribution; infrastructure risk and resilience; regional frequency analysis; multi-modeling and uncertainty assessment; downscaling and bias correction

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Climate change induced intensification of the global water cycle is impacting the frequency and severity of hydrologic extremes, including floods and droughts. Future changes in the magnitude, intensity, frequency and seasonality of precipitation, increased evapotranspiration, and shifts from snow towards rainfall regimes can further exacerbate the flood and drought risks in many regions of the world. Furthermore, there are indications that rain-on-snow and atmospheric river driven flood events will intensify in the future climate. These climate induced changes coupled with direct human impacts, such as floodplain development and land use change, could lead to severe natural disasters.  Thus, understanding the historical and future trajectories of hydrologic extremes is crucial for water-resources risk assessment and planning. In this context, the nonstationarity of hydrologic extremes is highly relevant, as it could significantly alter the frequency distribution of extreme events.   However, the application of nonstationary methods pose a number of challenges, such as selecting an appropriate modelling strategy, handling uncertainties, and understanding and communicating the associated concepts and risks. This special issue will provide a platform for research that will assess the impacts of historical and projected climate change on hydrologic extremes.  We seek both application studies and methodological studies that focus on hydrological extremes (peak- and low-flows) and associated risks (floods, droughts). The topics covered by this special Issue will include but not limited to the following:

  • Analysis of historical variability and trends in streamflow extremes (e.g., peak flow, low flow, timing) and teleconnections to hydroclimatic drivers
  • Model based studies on future changes in hydrologic extremes and the role of internal variability and anthropogenic forcings
  • Development and application of nonstationary methods for the evaluation of hydrologic extreme events
  • Evaluation of uncertainties of extreme value projections
  • Methods to quantify flood and drought risks
  • Implications of changes in hydrologic extreme events on water resources management

Dr. Rajesh R. Shrestha
Dr. Mohammad Reza Najafi
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2000 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Hydrologic trends
  • Peak flow
  • Low flow
  • Flood
  • Drought
  • Climate change
  • Nonstationarity
  • Uncertainty analysis
  • Extreme value analysis

Published Papers (4 papers)

Order results
Result details
Select all
Export citation of selected articles as:

Research

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle
Concurrent Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Colorado River Basin
Water 2021, 13(7), 978; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070978 - 01 Apr 2021
Viewed by 811
Abstract
Extreme events resulting in catastrophic damage have more than doubled in the last five years, costing hundreds of lives and thousands of homes, and heavily undermining regional economic stability. At present, most of these hydroclimatic extreme events are documented by the media as [...] Read more.
Extreme events resulting in catastrophic damage have more than doubled in the last five years, costing hundreds of lives and thousands of homes, and heavily undermining regional economic stability. At present, most of these hydroclimatic extreme events are documented by the media as individual events; however, in scientific terms, many are better understood as concurrent events—concurrent extremes of both temperature and precipitation (e.g., drought, floods). This paper considers concurrent changes in hydroclimate extremes, including heatwaves, drought, flooding, and low flows, in six historical-to-future (1970–1999, 2070–2099) Earth System Model (ESM) climate scenarios for the Colorado River basin. Results indicate that temperature-driven Impacts (heatwaves, drought) have the strongest responses while precipitation-driven Impacts have weaker responses. All Impacts exhibit an increase in magnitude from synoptic to annual time scales, with heatwaves increasing in strength about three times at the annual time scale versus the synoptic, while low flows only increase slightly. Critical watersheds in the Colorado were identified, highlighting the Blue River basin, Uncompahgre, East Taylor, Salt/Verde watersheds, locations of important water infrastructures, water resources, and hydrological research. Our results indicate that concurrent extreme hydroclimate events are projected to increase in the future and intensify within critical regions of the Colorado River basin. Considering extreme hydroclimate events concurrently is an important step towards linking economic and social effects of these events and their associated instabilities on a regional scale. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

Open AccessArticle
Climatic Controls on Mean and Extreme Streamflow Changes Across the Permafrost Region of Canada
Water 2021, 13(5), 626; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050626 - 27 Feb 2021
Viewed by 477
Abstract
Climatic change is affecting streamflow regimes of the permafrost region, altering mean and extreme streamflow conditions. In this study, we analyzed historical trends in annual mean flow (Qmean), minimum flow (Qmin), maximum flow (Qmax) and Qmax [...] Read more.
Climatic change is affecting streamflow regimes of the permafrost region, altering mean and extreme streamflow conditions. In this study, we analyzed historical trends in annual mean flow (Qmean), minimum flow (Qmin), maximum flow (Qmax) and Qmax timing across 84 hydrometric stations in the permafrost region of Canada. Furthermore, we related streamflow trends with temperature and precipitation trends, and used a multiple linear regression (MLR) framework to evaluate climatic controls on streamflow components. The results revealed spatially varied trends across the region, with significantly increasing (at 10% level) Qmin for 43% of stations as the most prominent trend, and a relatively smaller number of stations with significant Qmean, Qmax and Qmax timing trends. Temperatures over both the cold and warm seasons showed significant warming for >70% of basin areas upstream of the hydrometric stations, while precipitation exhibited increases for >15% of the basins. Comparisons of the 1976 to 2005 basin-averaged climatological means of streamflow variables with precipitation and temperature revealed a positive correlation between Qmean and seasonal precipitation, and a negative correlation between Qmean and seasonal temperature. The basin-averaged streamflow, precipitation and temperature trends showed weak correlations that included a positive correlation between Qmin and October to March precipitation trends, and negative correlations of Qmax timing with October to March and April to September temperature trends. The MLR-based variable importance analysis revealed the dominant controls of precipitation on Qmean and Qmax, and temperature on Qmin. Overall, this study contributes towards an enhanced understanding of ongoing changes in streamflow regimes and their climatic controls across the Canadian permafrost region, which could be generalized for the broader pan-Arctic regions. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

Open AccessArticle
Impact of Climate Change on Precipitation Extremes over Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Water 2021, 13(2), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13020120 - 07 Jan 2021
Viewed by 753
Abstract
In the context of climate change, the impact of hydro-meteorological extremes, such as floods and droughts, has become one of the most severe issues for the governors of mega-cities. The main purpose of this study is to assess the spatiotemporal changes in extreme [...] Read more.
In the context of climate change, the impact of hydro-meteorological extremes, such as floods and droughts, has become one of the most severe issues for the governors of mega-cities. The main purpose of this study is to assess the spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation indices over Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, between the near (2021–2050) and intermediate (2051–2080) future periods with respect to the baseline period (1980–2009). The historical extreme indices were calculated through observed daily rainfall data at 11 selected meteorological stations across the study area. The future extreme indices were projected based on a stochastic weather generator, the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), which incorporates climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Eight extreme precipitation indices, such as the consecutive dry days (CDDs), consecutive wet days (CWDs), number of very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), number of extremely heavy precipitation days (R25mm), maximum 1 d precipitation amount (RX1day), maximum 5 d precipitation amount (RX5day), very wet days (R95p), and simple daily intensity index (SDII) were selected to evaluate the multi-model ensemble mean changes of extreme indices in terms of intensity, duration, and frequency. The statistical significance, stability, and averaged magnitude of trends in these changes, thereby, were computed by the Mann-Kendall statistical techniques and Sen’s estimator, and applied to each extreme index. The results indicated a general increasing trend in most extreme indices for the future periods. In comparison with the near future period (2021–2050), the extreme intensity and frequency indices in the intermediate future period (2051–2080) present more statistically significant trends and higher growing rates. Furthermore, an increase in most extreme indices mainly occurs in some parts of the central and southern regions, while a decrease in those indices is often projected in the north of the study area. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

Open AccessArticle
Investigation of Attributes for Identifying Homogeneous Flood Regions for Regional Flood Frequency Analysis in Canada
Water 2020, 12(9), 2570; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12092570 - 15 Sep 2020
Viewed by 645
Abstract
The identification of homogeneous flood regions is essential for regional flood frequency analysis. Despite the type of regionalization framework considered (e.g., region of influence or hierarchical clustering), selecting flood-related attributes to reflect flood generating mechanisms is required to discriminate flood regimes among catchments. [...] Read more.
The identification of homogeneous flood regions is essential for regional flood frequency analysis. Despite the type of regionalization framework considered (e.g., region of influence or hierarchical clustering), selecting flood-related attributes to reflect flood generating mechanisms is required to discriminate flood regimes among catchments. To understand how different attributes perform across Canada for identifying homogeneous regions, this study examines five distinctive attributes (i.e., geographical proximity, flood seasonality, physiographic variables, monthly precipitation pattern, and monthly temperature pattern) for their ability to identify homogeneous regions at 186 gauging sites with their annual maximum flow data. We propose a novel region revision procedure to complement the well-known region of influence and L-Moments techniques that automates the identification of homogeneous regions across continental domains. Results are presented spatially for Canada to assess patterning of homogeneous regions. Memberships of two selected regions are investigated to provide insight into membership characteristics. Sites in eastern Canada are highly likely to identify homogeneous flood regions, while the western prairie and mountainous regions are not. Overall, it is revealed that the success of identifying homogeneous regions depends on local hydrological complexities, whether the considered attribute(s) reflect primary flooding mechanism(s), and on whether catchment sites are clustered in a small geographic region. Formation of effective pooling groups affords the extension of record lengths across the Canadian domain (where gauges typically have <50 years of record), facilitating more comprehensive analysis of higher return period flood needs for climate change assessment. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

Planned Papers

The below list represents only planned manuscripts. Some of these manuscripts have not been received by the Editorial Office yet. Papers submitted to MDPI journals are subject to peer-review.

1. Author: Yonas Dibike; Title: A Multivariate Regression Framework for Predicting Peak Flows in Western Canadian River Basins;

2. Author: Harsimrenjit Singh, Mohammad Reza Najafi; Title: Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic factors and internal variability on rain-on-snow events

3. Flood Sustainability Index Applied To Bacanga River Basin, São Luís / Ma

Claudia Rakel Pena Pereira, Universidade Federal Fluminense, [email protected]

Abstract: 
Urban density and the serious problems of homelessness in the lower and middle classes of the population have been worsening and, today, risk processes associated with river dynamics have generated significant expenses and concerns for public management. In view of this, the main objective of this work is the development of a flood susceptibility index (ISI), based on multicriteria analyzes, which helps urban planning and guidance of flood risk management policies, in order to avoid occupation and densification of areas susceptible to flooding. The proposal is to provide a simple and quick application tool, based on just four indicators, referring to the physiographic characteristics: vegetation, pedology, altimetry and slope. In this way, the index is a decision support tool that allows: quantitative comparison between critical zones and quantitative comparison of the effectiveness of solutions or scenarios for the same region.

 
Back to TopTop