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Past and Future Trends and Variability in Hydro-Climatic Processes

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A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Hydrology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (28 February 2021) | Viewed by 37656

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Special Issue Editors

Dr. Barrie R. Bonsal

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Guest Editor

National Hydrology Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Saskatoon, SK S7N 3H5, Canada
Interests: hydro-climatology; climate change; freshwater availability; Canada; droughts; floods; teleconnections

Dr. Yonas Dibike

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

University of Victoria, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada
Interests: hydrological and transport modelling; climate change impacts in hydrology and water resources; hydro-climate analysis
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Dr. Daniel L. Peters

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

University of Victoria, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada
Interests: hydrology; environmental flows; climate change; flow regulation; floodplain connectivity; deltas

Dr. Rajesh R. Shrestha

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

Research Scientist, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
Interests: climate change impacts; water resources; watershed hydrology; hydro-climatology; hydrologic modelling; hydrologic extremes; statistical and machine learning methods
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The earth has vast amounts of surface and sub-surface freshwater in the form of lakes, rivers, wetlands, soil water, and groundwater, as well as water stored in snowpack, glaciers, and permafrost. This freshwater is fundamental to the natural environment and to many social and economic activities, often referred to as ecosystem services, and considered in environmental flow frameworks. The amount and timing of freshwater availability is primarily governed by processes and interactions within different components of the water cycle acting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, but are also directly impacted by human activities (e.g., dams, diversions, withdrawals, and land use change). Past and projected future hydro-climatic trends, variability, and changes, including extreme events, have and will continue to alter various aspects of the water cycle and the resultant freshwater availability.

This Special Issue focuses on the assessment of past trends and variability and projected future changes in hydro-climatic processes that affect freshwater availability on local, regional, and/or larger scales. Submissions related to the following research areas are requested, especially as they pertain to the hydro-climatology of cold regions:

Various aspects of the water cycle including (but not limited to) precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, water levels, snowpack, snowmelt, glaciers, permafrost, soil moisture, and groundwater, particularly as they relate to freshwater availability in lakes, rivers, wetlands, and/or deltas.
Past and/or future changes in hydro-climatic extremes such as droughts/low flows and floods.
Environmental flow needs related to the quantity, timing, and quality of freshwater flows and levels.
Trends and changes in hydro-climatic parameters associated with human-built infrastructure (dams, reservoirs, diversions, fragmentation) and land use change.

Contributions using new and emerging methods in statistical and process-based modelling are especially welcome.

Dr. Barrie R. Bonsal
Dr. Yonas Dibike
Dr. Daniel L. Peters
Dr. Rajesh R. Shrestha
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

hydro-climatology
freshwater availability
trends and variability
climate change
water cycle
droughts
floods
environmental flow needs

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Published Papers (10 papers)

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Editorial

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5 pages, 191 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Special Issue: Past and Future Trends and Variability in Hydro-Climatic Processes

by Barrie R. Bonsal, Yonas B. Dibike, Daniel L. Peters and Rajesh R. Shrestha

Water 2021, 13(16), 2199; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13162199 - 12 Aug 2021

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2174

Abstract

The earth has vast amounts of surface and sub-surface freshwater in the form of lakes, reservoirs, rivers, wetlands, soil water, groundwater, as well as water stored in snowpacks, glaciers, and permafrost [...] Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Past and Future Trends and Variability in Hydro-Climatic Processes)

Research

Jump to: Editorial, Review

10 pages, 1792 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

by Bernardo Teufel and Laxmi Sushama

Water 2021, 13(11), 1494; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111494 - 27 May 2021

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2537

Abstract

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Past and Future Trends and Variability in Hydro-Climatic Processes)

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19 pages, 4547 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Runoff Projection from an Alpine Watershed in Western Canada: Application of a Snowmelt Runoff Model

by Kyle Siemens, Yonas Dibike, Rajesh R Shrestha and Terry Prowse

Water 2021, 13(9), 1199; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13091199 - 26 Apr 2021

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 3099

Abstract

The rising global temperature is shifting the runoff patterns of snowmelt-dominated alpine watersheds, resulting in increased cold season flows, earlier spring peak flows, and reduced summer runoff. Projections of future runoff are beneficial in preparing for the anticipated changes in streamflow regimes. This study applied the degree–day Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in combination with the MODIS to remotely sense snow cover observations for modeling the snowmelt runoff response of the Upper Athabasca River Basin in western Canada. After assessing its ability to simulate the observed historical flows, the SRM was applied for projecting future runoff in the basin. The inclusion of a spatial and temporal variation in the degree–day factor (DDF) and separation of the DDF for glaciated and non-glaciated areas were found to be important for improved simulation of varying snow conditions over multiple years. The SRM simulations, driven by an ensemble of six statistically downscaled GCM runs under the RCP8.5 scenario for the future period (2070–2080), show a consistent pattern in projected runoff change, with substantial increases in May runoff, smaller increases over the winter months, and decreased runoff in the summer months (June–August). Despite the SRM’s relative simplicity and requirement of only a few input variables, the model performed well in simulating historical flows, and provides runoff projections consistent with historical trends and previous modeling studies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Past and Future Trends and Variability in Hydro-Climatic Processes)

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26 pages, 7741 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Spatial and Temporal Shifts in Historic and Future Temperature and Precipitation Patterns Related to Snow Accumulation and Melt Regimes in Alberta, Canada

by Brandi W. Newton, Babak Farjad and John F. Orwin

Water 2021, 13(8), 1013; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081013 - 7 Apr 2021

Cited by 28 | Viewed by 4934

Abstract

Shifts in winter temperature and precipitation patterns can profoundly affect snow accumulation and melt regimes. These shifts have varying impacts on local to large-scale hydro-ecological systems and freshwater distribution, especially in cold regions with high hydroclimatic heterogeneity. We evaluate winter climate changes in the six ecozones (Mountains, Foothills, Prairie, Parkland, Boreal, and Taiga) in Alberta, Canada, and identify regions of elevated susceptibility to change. Evaluation of historic trends and future changes in winter climate use high-resolution (~10 km) gridded data for 1950–2017 and projections for the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100) under medium (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios. Results indicate continued declines in winter duration and earlier onset of spring above-freezing temperatures from historic through future periods, with greater changes in Prairie and Mountain ecozones, and extremely short or nonexistent winter durations in future climatologies. Decreases in November–April precipitation and a shift from snow to rain dominate the historic period. Future scenarios suggest winter precipitation increases are expected to predominantly fall as rain. Additionally, shifts in precipitation distributions are likely to lead to historically-rare, high-precipitation extreme events becoming more common. This study increases our understanding of historic trends and projected future change effects on winter snowpack-related climate and can be used inform adaptive water resource management strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Past and Future Trends and Variability in Hydro-Climatic Processes)

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25 pages, 10113 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Means and Extremes: Evaluation of a CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble in Reproducing Historical Climate Characteristics across Alberta, Canada

by Badrul Masud, Quan Cui, Mohamed E. Ammar, Barrie R. Bonsal, Zahidul Islam and Monireh Faramarzi

Water 2021, 13(5), 737; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050737 - 9 Mar 2021

Cited by 24 | Viewed by 5307

Abstract

This study evaluates General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for their ability in simulating historical means and extremes of daily precipitation (P), and daily maximum (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin). Models are evaluated against hybrid observations at 2255 sub-basins across Alberta, Canada using established statistical metrics for the 1983–2014 period. Three extreme indices including consecutive wet days (CWD), summer days (SD), and warm nights (WN) are defined based on the peak over the threshold approach and characterized by duration and frequency. The tail behaviour of extremes is evaluated using the Generalized Pareto Distribution. Regional evaluations are also conducted for four climate sub-regions across the study area. For both mean annual precipitation and mean annual daily temperature, most GCMs more accurately reproduce the observations in northern Alberta and follow a gradient toward the south having the poorest representation in the western mountainous area. Model simulations show statistically better performance in reproducing mean annual daily Tmax than Tmin, and in reproducing annual mean duration compared to the frequency of extreme indices across the province. The Kernel density curves of duration and frequency as simulated by GCMs show closer agreement to that of observations in the case of CWD. However, it is slightly (completely) overestimated (underestimated) by GCMs for warm nights (summer days). The tail behaviour of extremes indicates that GCMs may not incorporate some local processes such as the convective parameterization scheme in the simulation of daily precipitation. Model performances in each of the four sub-regions are quite similar to their performances at the provincial scale. Bias-corrected and downscaled GCM simulations using a hybrid approach show that the downscaled GCM simulations better represent the means and extremes of P characteristics compared to Tmax and Tmin. There is no clear indication of an improved tail behaviour of GPD based on downscaled simulations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Past and Future Trends and Variability in Hydro-Climatic Processes)

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30 pages, 24612 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Effects of Climatic Drivers and Teleconnections on Late 20th Century Trends in Spring Freshet of Four Major Arctic-Draining Rivers

by Roxanne Ahmed, Terry Prowse, Yonas Dibike and Barrie Bonsal

Water 2021, 13(2), 179; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13020179 - 13 Jan 2021

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2914

Abstract

Spring freshet is the dominant annual discharge event in all major Arctic draining rivers with large contributions to freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean. Research has shown that the total freshwater influx to the Arctic Ocean has been increasing, while at the same time, the rate of change in the Arctic climate is significantly higher than in other parts of the globe. This study assesses the large-scale atmospheric and surface climatic conditions affecting the magnitude, timing and regional variability of the spring freshets by analyzing historic daily discharges from sub-basins within the four largest Arctic-draining watersheds (Mackenzie, Ob, Lena and Yenisei). Results reveal that climatic variations closely match the observed regional trends of increasing cold-season flows and earlier freshets. Flow regulation appears to suppress the effects of climatic drivers on freshet volume but does not have a significant impact on peak freshet magnitude or timing measures. Spring freshet characteristics are also influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, particularly in their positive phases. The majority of significant relationships are found in unregulated stations. This study provides a key insight into the climatic drivers of observed trends in freshet characteristics, whilst clarifying the effects of regulation versus climate at the sub-basin scale. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Past and Future Trends and Variability in Hydro-Climatic Processes)

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16 pages, 2064 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Historical and Projected Changes to the Stages and Other Characteristics of Severe Canadian Prairie Droughts

by Barrie Bonsal, Zhuo Liu, Elaine Wheaton and Ronald Stewart

Water 2020, 12(12), 3370; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123370 - 1 Dec 2020

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 3913

Abstract

Large-area, long-duration droughts are among Canada’s costliest natural disasters. A particularly vulnerable region includes the Canadian Prairies where droughts have, and are projected to continue to have, major impacts. However, individual droughts often differ in their stages such as onset, growth, persistence, retreat, and duration. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, this study assesses historical and projected future changes to the stages and other characteristics of severe drought occurrence across the agricultural region of the Canadian Prairies. Ten severe droughts occurred during the 1900–2014 period with each having unique temporal and spatial characteristics. Projected changes from 29 global climate models (GCMs) with three representative concentration pathways reveal an increase in severe drought occurrence, particularly toward the end of this century with a high emissions scenario. For the most part, the overall duration and intensity of future severe drought conditions is projected to increase mainly due to longer persistence stages, while growth and retreat stages are generally shorter. Considerable variability exists among individual GCM projections, including their ability to simulate observed severe drought characteristics. This study has increased understanding in potential future changes to a little studied aspect of droughts, namely, their stages and associated characteristics. This knowledge can aid in developing future adaptation strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Past and Future Trends and Variability in Hydro-Climatic Processes)

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35 pages, 11880 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Optimization Assessment of Projection Methods of Climate Change for Discrepancies between North and South China

by Yurui Lun, Liu Liu, Ruotong Wang and Guanhua Huang

Water 2020, 12(11), 3106; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113106 - 5 Nov 2020

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3022

Abstract

Downscaling methods have been widely used due to the coarse and biased outputs of general circulation models (GCMs), which cannot be applied directly in regional climate change projection. Hence, appropriate selection of GCMs and downscaling methods is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. To explicitly explore the influences of multi-GCMs and different downscaling methods on climate change projection in various climate zones, the Heihe River Basin (HRB) and the Zhanghe River Basin (ZRB) were selected in this study to represent the north arid region and the south humid region in China, respectively. We first evaluated the performance of multi-GCMs derived from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the two regions based on in-situ measurements and the 40 year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. Subsequently, to construct appropriate climate change projection techniques, comparative analysis using two statistical downscaling methods was performed with consideration of the significant north–south meteorological discrepancies. Consequently, specific projections of future climate change for 2021–2050 under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were completed for the HRB and ZRB, including daily precipitation, maximum air temperature, and minimum air temperature. The results demonstrated that the score-based method with multiple criteria for performance evaluation of multiple GCMs more accurately captured the spatio-temporal characteristics of the regional climate. The two statistical downscaling methods showed respective advantages in arid and humid regions. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) showed more accurate prediction capacities for air temperature in the arid-climate HRB, whereas model output statistics (MOS) better captured the probability distribution of precipitation in the ZRB, which is characterized by a humid climate. According to the results obtained in this study, the selection of appropriate GCMs and downscaling methods for specific climate zones with different meteorological features significantly impact regional climate change projection. The statistical downscaling models developed and recommended for the north and south of China in this study provide scientific reference for sustainable water resource management subject to climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Past and Future Trends and Variability in Hydro-Climatic Processes)

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Review

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14 pages, 2792 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperEditor’s ChoiceReview

The Fate of Stationary Tools for Environmental Flow Determination in a Context of Climate Change

by André St-Hilaire, Habiba Ferchichi, Laureline Berthot and Daniel Caissie

Water 2021, 13(9), 1203; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13091203 - 27 Apr 2021

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3207

Abstract

Environmental flows (eflows) refer to the amount of water required to sustain aquatic ecosystems. In its formal definition, three flow characteristics need to be minimally maintained: quantity, timing and quality. This overview paper highlights the challenges of some of the current methods used for eflow determination in the context of an evolving climate. As hydrological methods remain popular, they are first analyzed by describing some of the potential caveats associated with their usage when flow time series are non-stationarity. The timing of low-flow events will likely change within a season but will also likely shift in seasonality in some regions. Flow quality is a multi-faceted concept. It is proposed that a first simple step to partly incorporate flow quality in future analyses is to include the water temperature as a covariate. Finally, holistic approaches are also critically revisited, and simple modifications to the Ecological Limits of Flow Alteration (ELOHA) framework are proposed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Past and Future Trends and Variability in Hydro-Climatic Processes)

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14 pages, 2439 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperEditor’s ChoiceReview

Canadian Continental-Scale Hydrology under a Changing Climate: A Review

by Tricia A. Stadnyk and Stephen J. Déry

Water 2021, 13(7), 906; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070906 - 26 Mar 2021

Cited by 17 | Viewed by 4963

Abstract

Canada, like other high latitude cold regions on Earth, is experiencing some of the most accelerated and intense warming resulting from global climate change. In the northern regions, Arctic amplification has resulted in warming two to three times greater than global mean temperature trends. Unprecedented warming is matched by intensification of wet and dry regions and hydroclimatic cycles, which is altering the spatial and seasonal distribution of surface waters in Canada. Diagnosing and tracking hydrologic change across Canada requires the implementation of continental-scale prediction models owing the size of Canada’s drainage basins, their distribution across multiple eco- and climatic zones, and the scarcity and paucity of observational networks. This review examines the current state of continental-scale climate change across Canada and the anticipated impacts to freshwater availability, including the role of anthropogenic regulation. The review focuses on continental and regional-scale prediction that underpins operational design and long-term resource planning and management in Canada. While there are significant process-based changes being experienced within Canadian catchments that are equally—if not more so—critical for community water availability, the focus of this review is on the cumulative effects of climate change and anthropogenic regulation for the Canadian freshwater supply. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Past and Future Trends and Variability in Hydro-Climatic Processes)

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