Special Issue "Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties"

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water Resources Management, Policy and Governance".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2019).

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Andres Diez-Herrero
Website
Guest Editor
Geological Hazards Division, Geological Survey of Spain (IGME), Ríos Rosas 23, E-28003 Madrid, Spain
Interests: flood risk analysis; natural hazards mitigation; flood hydrology; paleohydrology; dendrogeomorphology; fluvial geomorphology; landscape and urban planning
Special Issues and Collections in MDPI journals
Dr. Julio Garrote
Website
Guest Editor
Department of Geodynamics, Stratigraphy and Paleontology, Complutense University of Madrid, E-28040 Madrid, Spain
Interests: flood hazard; flood risk analysis; flood modelling; fluvial geomorphology; flash floods; LiDAR and photogrametry DEMS; PaleoFloods modelling; fluvial and terrain morphometry; beach and dune system erosion; coastal and shoreline process
Special Issues and Collections in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

In recent years, a considerable volume of technical literature has been published on flood hazard analysis, and more recently on flood vulnerability and resilience. Nevertheless, there is still a shortage of scientific studies and practical experience of real flood risk assessment (both social and economic), including hazard, exposure and vulnerability analyses and their integration. As there are so few references available, applications of flood risk assessment to the design of preventive measures and early warning systems, landscape and urban planning, civil protection, insurance systems, and risk-based information and education, cannot reach their full potential development. This is because the research products available, such as hazard data and maps, do not serve to ensure the efficient prioritization of mitigation measures or communities at risk. Meanwhile, floods are the natural disaster that causes the greatest losses on a global scale, and due to climate change this situation is expected to continue.

The overall objective of this Special Issue is to improve our knowledge of data sources, methodologies and results, especially in analyses on a regional and local scale, from real flood risk assessments around the world. The final aim is to offer flood risk managers new tools, data and maps to improve risk mitigation, both preventive and corrective. Uncertainty analysis and its application to the process of flood risk analysis is of particular interest. Contributions to this Special Issue, showing successful experiences of flood risk analysis and applications, will undoubtedly be of considerable value both in an academic context and for flood risk managers. A wide variety of topics will be covered including: flood risk data sources; techniques and methodologies for flood risk analysis; cost–benefit analysis; flood risk mapping and cartographic representation of uncertainties; fields for the application of flood risk assessments; flood risk analysis calibrations; low-cost flood risk analysis in developing countries; or the interaction of fluvial and coastal processes in the flood risk of coastal regions.

Prof. Andres Diez-Herrero
Dr. Julio Garrote
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • Flood Risk Assessment
  • Flood Risk Mapping
  • Risk Uncertainties Propagation
  • Flood Mitigation Measures
  • Flood cost-benefit index
  • Flood Risk Calibration

Published Papers (15 papers)

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Research

Open AccessArticle
Analysis of Climate Change’s Effect on Flood Risk. Case Study of Reinosa in the Ebro River Basin
Water 2020, 12(4), 1114; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12041114 - 14 Apr 2020
Abstract
Floods are one of the natural hazards that could be most affected by climate change, causing great economic damage and casualties in the world. On December 2019 in Reinosa (Cantabria, Spain), took place one of the worst floods in memory. Implementation of DIRECTIVE [...] Read more.
Floods are one of the natural hazards that could be most affected by climate change, causing great economic damage and casualties in the world. On December 2019 in Reinosa (Cantabria, Spain), took place one of the worst floods in memory. Implementation of DIRECTIVE 2007/60/EC for the assessment and management of flood risks in Spain enabled the detection of this river basin with a potential significant flood risk via a preliminary flood risk assessment, and flood hazard and flood risk maps were developed. The main objective of this paper is to present a methodology to estimate climate change’s effects on flood hazard and flood risk, with Reinosa as the case study. This river basin is affected by the snow phenomenon, even more sensitive to climate change. Using different climate models, regarding a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5), with daily temperature and precipitation data from years 2007–2070, and comparing results in relative terms, flow rate and flood risk variation due to climate change are estimated. In the specific case of Reinosa, the MRI-CGCM3 model shows that climate change will cause a significant increase of potential affected inhabitants and economic damage due to flood risk. This evaluation enables us to define mitigation actions in terms of cost–benefit analysis and prioritize the ones that should be included in flood risk management plans. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessArticle
Real-Time Data and Flood Forecasting in Tagus Basin. A Case Study: Rosarito and El Burguillo Reservoirs from 8th to 12th March, 2018
Water 2020, 12(4), 1004; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12041004 - 01 Apr 2020
Abstract
The hydrological regime of the Iberian Peninsula is characterized by its extreme irregularity, including its propensity for periodic floods, which cause severe floods. The development of suitable cartographies and hydraulic models (HEC-RAS, IBER, etc.) allows for defining, with sufficient precision, the areas flooded [...] Read more.
The hydrological regime of the Iberian Peninsula is characterized by its extreme irregularity, including its propensity for periodic floods, which cause severe floods. The development of suitable cartographies and hydraulic models (HEC-RAS, IBER, etc.) allows for defining, with sufficient precision, the areas flooded by a determined return period, and for elaborating maps of danger and areas at risk of flooding, making it possible to adopt the corresponding preventive measures of spatial planning. These preventive measures do not avoid the need for contingent plans, such as the Civil Flooding Protection Plans. Many of the Peninsula’s watercourses and rivers are regulated by reservoirs built to ensure water supply and to smooth floods by releasing water in extreme hydrological climates. Hydrological modeling tools (rain/run-off) and Decision Support Systems DSS have been developed for the optimal operation of these dams in flood situations. The objective of the article is to study and prove the effectiveness of the integrated data provision in real time, while the event occurs—a circumstance that was not possible from the limited available meteorological stations available from Official Weather Services. The development of the Automatic Hydrological Information System (SAIH) in the Spanish River Basin Authorities (Confederaciones Hidrográficas), which includes a dense network of thermo-pluviometric stations and rain-river flow gauges, has allowed for new perspectives in order to realize an effective forecast method of flows during episodes of extreme precipitation. In this article, we will describe the integration of a hydrological modeling system, developed by the Confederación Hidrográfica del Tajo (River Authority), to meet the described objectives; the results of this methodology are novel. This allows for the processing of the 15-minute data provided, including the simulation of the snow accumulation/melting processes and the forecast of inflows to the reservoir to help in the establishment of safeguards and preventive waterflow releases. Finally, the methodology described is shown in a real case of study at Rosarito and El Burguillo Reservoirs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessArticle
On the Influence of the Main Floor Layout of Buildings in Economic Flood Risk Assessment: Results from Central Spain
Water 2020, 12(3), 670; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030670 - 01 Mar 2020
Abstract
Multiple studies have been carried out on the correct estimation of the damages (direct tangible losses) associated with floods. However, the complex analysis and the multitude of variables conditioning the damage estimation, as well as the uncertainty in their estimation, make it difficult, [...] Read more.
Multiple studies have been carried out on the correct estimation of the damages (direct tangible losses) associated with floods. However, the complex analysis and the multitude of variables conditioning the damage estimation, as well as the uncertainty in their estimation, make it difficult, even today, to reach one single, complete solution to this problem. In no case has the influence that the topographic relationship between the main floor of a residential building and the surrounding land have in the estimation of flood economic damage been analysed. To carry out this analysis, up to a total of 28 magnitude–damage functions (with different characteristics and application scales) were selected on which the effect of over-elevation and under-elevation of the main floor of the houses was simulated (at intervals of 20 cm, between −0.6 and +1 metre). According to each of the two trends, an overestimation or underestimation of flood damage was observed. This pattern was conditioned by the specific characteristics of each magnitude–damage function, meaning that the percentage of damage became asymptotic from a certain flow depth value. In a real scenario, the consideration of this variable (as opposed to its non-consideration) causes an average variation in the damage estimation around 30%. Based on these results, the analysed variable can be considered as (1) another main source of uncertainty in the correct estimation of flood damage, and (2) an essential variable to take into account in a flood damage analysis for the correct estimation of loss. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle
Social Vulnerability Assessment for Flood Risk Analysis
Water 2020, 12(2), 558; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020558 - 17 Feb 2020
Abstract
This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis of social vulnerability to floods based on the integration and weighting of a range of exposure and resistance (coping capacity) indicators. It focuses on the selection and characteristics of each proposed indicator and the integration [...] Read more.
This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis of social vulnerability to floods based on the integration and weighting of a range of exposure and resistance (coping capacity) indicators. It focuses on the selection and characteristics of each proposed indicator and the integration procedure based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) on a large scale. The majority of data used for the calculation of the indicators comes from open public data sources, which allows the replicability of the method in any area where the same data are available. To demonstrate the feasibility of the method, a study case is presented. The flood social vulnerability assessment focuses on the municipality of Ponferrada (Spain), a medium-sized town that has high exposure to floods due to potential breakage of the dam located upstream. A detailed mapping of the social vulnerability index is generated at the urban parcel scale, which shows an affected population of 34,941 inhabitants. The capability of working with such detailed units of analysis for an entire medium-sized town provides a valuable tool to support flood risk planning and management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessArticle
Glacial Lake Inventory and Lake Outburst Flood/Debris Flow Hazard Assessment after the Gorkha Earthquake in the Bhote Koshi Basin
Water 2020, 12(2), 464; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020464 - 10 Feb 2020
Abstract
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) evolve into debris flows by erosion and sediment entrainment while propagating down a valley, which highly increases peak discharge and volume and causes destructive damage downstream. This study focuses on GLOF hazard assessment in the Bhote Koshi Basin [...] Read more.
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) evolve into debris flows by erosion and sediment entrainment while propagating down a valley, which highly increases peak discharge and volume and causes destructive damage downstream. This study focuses on GLOF hazard assessment in the Bhote Koshi Basin (BKB), where was highly developed glacial lakes and was intensely affected by the Gorkha earthquake. A new 2016 glacial lake inventory was established, and six unreported GLOF events were identified with geomorphic outburst evidence from GaoFen-1 satellite images and Google Earth. A new method was proposed to assess GLOF hazard, in which large numbers of landslides triggered by earthquake were considered to enter into outburst floods enlarge the discharge and volume of debris flow in the downstream. Four GLOF hazard classes were derived according to glacial lake outburst potential and a flow magnitude assessment matrix, in which 11 glacial lakes were identified to have very high hazard and 24 to have high hazard. The GLOF hazard in BKB increased after the earthquake due to landslide deposits, which increased by 216.03 × 106 m3, and provides abundant deposits for outburst floods to evolve into debris flows. We suggest that in regional GLOF hazard assessment, small glacial lakes should not be overlooked for landslide deposit entrainment along a flood route that would increase the peak discharge, especially in earthquake-affected areas where large numbers of landslides were triggered. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle
Flood Consequences of Land-Use Changes at a Ski Resort: Overcoming a Geomorphological Threshold (Portainé, Eastern Pyrenees, Iberian Peninsula)
Water 2020, 12(2), 368; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020368 - 29 Jan 2020
Abstract
The sensitive mountain catchment of Portainé (Eastern Pyrenees, Iberian Peninsula) has recently experienced a significant change in its torrential dynamics due to human disturbances. The emplacement of a ski resort at the headwaters led to the surpassing of a geomorphological threshold, with important [...] Read more.
The sensitive mountain catchment of Portainé (Eastern Pyrenees, Iberian Peninsula) has recently experienced a significant change in its torrential dynamics due to human disturbances. The emplacement of a ski resort at the headwaters led to the surpassing of a geomorphological threshold, with important consequences during flood events. Consequently, since 2008, channel dynamics have turned into sediment-laden, highly destructive torrential flows. In order to assess this phenomenon and o acquire a holistic understanding of the catchment’s behaviour, we carried out a field work-based multidisciplinary study. We considered the interaction of the various controlling factors, including bedrock geology, geomorphological evolution, derived soils and coluvial deposits, rainfall patterns, and the hydrological response of the catchment to flood events. Moreover, anthropogenic land-use changes, its consequential hydrogeomorphic effects and the role of vegetation were also taken into account. Robust sedimentological and geomorphological evidence of ancient dense debris flows show that the basin has shifted around this threshold, giving rise to two different behaviours or equilibrium conditions throughout its history: alternating periods of moderate, bedload-laden flows and periods of high sediment-laden debris flow dynamics. This shifting could have extended through the Holocene. Finally, we discuss the possible impact of climate and global change, as the projected effects suggest future soil and forest degradation; this, jointly with more intense rainfalls in these mountain environments, would exacerbate the future occurrence of dense sediment-laden flows at Portainé, but also in other nearby, similar basins. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle
Modelling the 2012 Lahar in a Sector of Jamapa Gorge (Pico de Orizaba Volcano, Mexico) Using RAMMS and Tree-Ring Evidence
Water 2020, 12(2), 333; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020333 - 23 Jan 2020
Cited by 1
Abstract
A good understanding of the frequency and magnitude of lahars is essential for the assessment of torrential hazards in volcanic terrains. In many instances, however, data on past events is scarce or incomplete, such that the evaluation of possible future risks and/or the [...] Read more.
A good understanding of the frequency and magnitude of lahars is essential for the assessment of torrential hazards in volcanic terrains. In many instances, however, data on past events is scarce or incomplete, such that the evaluation of possible future risks and/or the planning of adequate countermeasures can only be done with rather limited certainty. In this paper, we present a multiidisciplinary approach based on botanical field evidence and the numerical modelling of a post-eruptive lahar that occurred in 2012 on the northern slope of the Pico de Orizaba volcano, Mexico, with the aim of reconstructing the magnitude of the event. To this end, we used the debris-flow module of the rapid mass movement simulation tool RAMMS on a highly resolved digital terrain model obtained with an unmanned aerial vehicle. The modelling was calibrated with scars found in 19 Pinus hartwegii trees that served as paleo stage indicators (PSI) of lahar magnitude in a sector of Jamapa Gorge. Using this combined assessment and calibration of RAMMS, we obtain a peak discharge of 78 m3 s−1 for the 2012 lahar event which was likely triggered by torrential rainfall during hurricane “Ernesto”. Results also show that the deviation between the modelled lahar stage (depth) and the height of PSI in trees was up to ±0.43 m. We conclude that the combination of PSI and models can be successfully used on (subtropical) volcanoes to assess the frequency, and even more so to calibrate the magnitude of lahars. The added value of the approach is particularly obvious in catchments with very scarce or no hydrological data at all and could thus also be employed for the dating and modelling of older lahars. As such, the approach and the results obtained can be used directly to support disaster risk reduction strategies at Pico de Orizaba volcano, but also in other volcanic regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessArticle
A Framework Proposal for Regional-Scale Flood-Risk Assessment of Cultural Heritage Sites and Application to the Castile and León Region (Central Spain)
Water 2020, 12(2), 329; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020329 - 23 Jan 2020
Abstract
Floods, at present, may constitute the natural phenomenon with the greatest impact on the deterioration of cultural heritage, which is the reason why the study of flood risk becomes essential in any attempt to manage cultural heritage (archaeological sites, historic buildings, artworks, etc.) [...] Read more.
Floods, at present, may constitute the natural phenomenon with the greatest impact on the deterioration of cultural heritage, which is the reason why the study of flood risk becomes essential in any attempt to manage cultural heritage (archaeological sites, historic buildings, artworks, etc.) This management of cultural heritage is complicated when it is distributed over a wide territory. This is precisely the situation in the region of Castile and León (Spain), in which 2155 cultural heritage elements are registered in the Catalog of Cultural Heritage Sites of Castile and León, and these are distributed along the 94,226 km2 of this region. Given this scenario, the present study proposes a methodological framework of flood risk analysis for these cultural heritage sites and elements. This assessment is based on two main processing tools to be developed in addition: on the one hand, the creation of a GIS database in which to establish the spatial relationship between the cultural heritage elements and the flow-prone areas for different flood return periods and, on the other hand, the creation of a risk matrix in which different variables are regarded as associated both to flood hazard (return period, flow depth, and river flooding typology) and to flood vulnerability (construction typology, and construction structural relationship with the hydraulic environment). The combination of both tools has allowed us to establish each cultural heritage flood risk level, making its categorization of risk possible. Of all the cultural heritage sites considered, 18 of them are categorized under an Extreme flood risk level; and another 24 show a High potential flood risk level. Therefore, these are about 25% to 30% of all cultural heritage sites in Castile and León. This flood risk categorization, with a scientific basis of the cultural heritage sites at risk, makes it possible to define territories of high flood risk clustering; where local scale analyses for mitigation measures against flood risk are necessary. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessArticle
Towards an International Levee Performance Database (ILPD) and Its Use for Macro-Scale Analysis of Levee Breaches and Failures
Water 2020, 12(1), 119; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010119 - 30 Dec 2019
Abstract
Understanding levee failures can be significantly improved by analysing historical failures, experiments and performance observations. Individual efforts have been undertaken to document flood defence failures but no systematically gathered large scale, open access dataset is currently available for thorough scientific research. Here, we [...] Read more.
Understanding levee failures can be significantly improved by analysing historical failures, experiments and performance observations. Individual efforts have been undertaken to document flood defence failures but no systematically gathered large scale, open access dataset is currently available for thorough scientific research. Here, we introduce an efficiently structured, global database, called International Levee Performance Database (ILPD), which aims to become a valuable knowledge platform in the field of levee safety. It comprises information on levee characteristics, failure mechanisms, geotechnical investigations and breach processes for more than 1500 cases (October 2019). We provide a macro-scale analysis of the available data, aiming to provide insights on levee behaviour based on historical records. We outline common failure mechanisms of which external erosion is identified as the most frequent for levees. As an example, we investigate flood events occurred in Germany (2002, 2013) and examine breach characteristics of hundreds of failures. It is found that initial failure mechanisms have an influence on breach characteristics and that failures due to instability and internal erosion are less frequent but lead to larger breaches. Moreover, a relation between the return period and the expected breach density during a flood event is identified. These insights could complement flood risk assessments. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessArticle
Analysis of Flood Fatalities–Slovenian Illustration
Water 2020, 12(1), 64; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010064 - 23 Dec 2019
Abstract
Floods not only induce vast economic damages but also pose a great danger to human life. In Slovenia, floods rank number one on the scale of damage magnitude. Different factors external to the hazard of flooding influence the gravity and extent of the [...] Read more.
Floods not only induce vast economic damages but also pose a great danger to human life. In Slovenia, floods rank number one on the scale of damage magnitude. Different factors external to the hazard of flooding influence the gravity and extent of the impacts. A comprehensive collection and analysis of the information related to the understanding of causative factors of human impacts can substantially contribute to the mitigation and the minimisation of fatalities and injuries. In this work, historical analysis was performed for flood fatalities in the years between 1926 and 2014, with 10 flood events that induced 74 casualties considered. A detailed collection and review on human impacts was made. Victims in cars have seemed to increase in recent years and rural areas tend to be more vulnerable and susceptible to having victims of flooding. With regards to gender, the majority of victims are male. The focus was on demographic aspects (age and gender) of fatalities and analysis of the circumstances of loss of life. Based on a description of the activities of victims during flood events and repetitive patterns, groups were made based on the type of flood fatality. Eight interviews were performed with rescuers and people who were affected by floods in order to obtain more extensive information on preventative measures, received help, and flood risk perception. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessArticle
Socio-Economic Potential Impacts Due to Urban Pluvial Floods in Badalona (Spain) in a Context of Climate Change
Water 2019, 11(12), 2658; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11122658 - 17 Dec 2019
Cited by 2
Abstract
Pluvial flooding in Badalona (Spain) occurs during high rainfall intensity events, which in the future could be more frequent according to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this context, the present study aims at quantifying the potential [...] Read more.
Pluvial flooding in Badalona (Spain) occurs during high rainfall intensity events, which in the future could be more frequent according to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this context, the present study aims at quantifying the potential impacts of climate change for the city of Badalona. A comprehensive pluvial flood multi risk assessment has been carried out for the entire municipality. The assessment has a twofold target: People safety, based on both pedestrians’ and vehicles’ stability, and impacts on the economic sector in terms of direct damages on properties and vehicles, and indirect damages due to businesses interruption. Risks and damages have also been assessed for the projected future rainfall conditions which enabled the comparison with the current ones, thereby estimating their potential increment. Moreover, the obtained results should be the first step to assess the efficiency of adaptation measures. The novelty of this paper is the integration of a detailed 1D/2D urban drainage model with multiple risk criteria. Although, the proposed methodology was tested for the case study of Badalona (Spain), it can be considered generally applicable to other urban areas affected by pluvial flooding. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessArticle
Flood Monitoring Based on the Study of Sentinel-1 SAR Images: The Ebro River Case Study
Water 2019, 11(12), 2454; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11122454 - 22 Nov 2019
Cited by 1
Abstract
Flooding is the most widespread hydrological hazard worldwide that affects water management, nature protection, economic activities, hydromorphological alterations on ecosystem services, and human health. The mitigation of the risks associated with flooding requires a certain management of flood zones, sustained by data and [...] Read more.
Flooding is the most widespread hydrological hazard worldwide that affects water management, nature protection, economic activities, hydromorphological alterations on ecosystem services, and human health. The mitigation of the risks associated with flooding requires a certain management of flood zones, sustained by data and information about the events with the help of flood maps with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution. This paper presents the potential use of the Sentinel-1 SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) images as a powerful tool for flood mapping applied in the event of extraordinary floods that occurred during the month of April 2018 in the Ebro (Spain). More specifically, in this study, we describe accurate and robust processing that allows real-time flood extension maps to be obtained, which is essential for risk mitigation. Evaluating the different Sentinel-1 parameters, our analysis shows that the best results on the final flood mapping for this study area were obtained using VH (Vertical-Horizontal) polarization configuration and Lee filtering 7 × 7 window sizes. Two methods were applied to flood maps from Sentinel-1 SAR images: (1) RGB (Red, Green, Blue color model) composition based on the differences between the pre- and post-event images; and (2) the calibration threshold technique or binarization based on histogram backscatter values. When comparing our flood maps with the flood areas digitalized from vertical aerial photographs, done by the Hydrological Planning Office of the Ebro Hydrographic Confederation, the results were coincident. The result of the flooding map obtained with the RADAR (Radio Detection and Ranging) image were compared with the layers with different return periods (10, 50, 100, and 500 years) for a selected zone of the study area of SNCZI (National Flood Zone Mapping System in Spain). It was found that the images are consistent and correspond to a flood between 10 and 50 years of return. In view of the results obtained, the usefulness of Sentinel-1 images as baseline data for the improvement of the methodological guide is appreciated, and should be used as a new source of input, calibration, and validation for hydrological models to improve the accuracy of flood risk maps. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessArticle
Flood Risk Evaluation in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Poisson Regression
Water 2019, 11(10), 1969; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11101969 - 21 Sep 2019
Cited by 1
Abstract
A Poisson regression based on eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) is proposed to evaluate the flood risk in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China. Regression analysis is employed to model the relationship between the frequency of flood alarming events observed by [...] Read more.
A Poisson regression based on eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) is proposed to evaluate the flood risk in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China. Regression analysis is employed to model the relationship between the frequency of flood alarming events observed by hydrological stations and hazard-causing factors from 2005 to 2012. Eight factors, including elevation (ELE), slope (SLO), elevation standard deviation (ESD), river density (DEN), distance to mainstream (DIST), NDVI, annual mean rainfall (RAIN), mean annual maximum of three-day accumulated precipitation (ACC) and frequency of extreme rainfall (EXE) are selected and integrated into a GIS environment for the identification of flood-prone basins. ESF-based Poisson regression (ESFPS) can filter out the spatial autocorrelation. The methodology includes construction of a spatial weight matrix, testing of spatial autocorrelation, decomposition of eigenvectors, stepwise selection of eigenvectors and calculation of regression coefficients. Compared with the pseudo R squared obtained by PS (0.56), ESFPS exhibits better fitness with a value of 0.78, which increases by approximately 39.3%. ESFPS identifies six significant factors including ELE, DEN, EXE, DIST, ACC and NDVI, in which ACC and NDVI are the first two main factors. The method can provide decision support for flood risk relief and hydrologic station planning. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessArticle
Can the Quality of the Potential Flood Risk Maps be Evaluated? A Case Study of the Social Risks of Floods in Central Spain
Water 2019, 11(6), 1284; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061284 - 20 Jun 2019
Cited by 1
Abstract
Calibration and validation of flood risk maps at a national or a supra-national level remains a problematic aspect due to the limited information available to carry out these tasks. However, this validation is essential to define the representativeness of the results and for [...] Read more.
Calibration and validation of flood risk maps at a national or a supra-national level remains a problematic aspect due to the limited information available to carry out these tasks. However, this validation is essential to define the representativeness of the results and for end users to gain confidence in them. In recent years, the use of information derived from social networks is becoming generalized in the field of natural risks as a means of validating results. However, the use of data from social networks also has its drawbacks, such as the biases associated with age and gender and their spatial distribution. The use of information associated with phone calls to Emergency Services (112) can resolve these deficiencies, although other problems are still latent. For example, a bias does exist in the relationship between the size of the population and the number of calls to the Emergency Services. This last aspect determines that global regression models have not been effective in simulating the behavior of related variables (calls to Emergency Services–Potential Flood Risk). Faced with this situation, the use of local regression models (such as locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS)) showed satisfactory results in the calibration of potential flood risk levels in the Autonomous Community of Castilla-La Mancha (Spain). This provides a new methodological path to the calibration studies of flood risk cartographies at national and supra-national levels. The results obtained through LOESS local regression models allowed us to establish the correct relationship between categorized potential risk levels and the inferred potential risk. They also permitted us to define the cases in which said levels differed ostensibly and where potential risk due to floods assigned to those municipalities led to a lower level of confidence. Therefore, based on the number of calls to the Emergency Service, we can categorize those municipalities that should be the subject of a more detailed study and those whose classification should be revised in future updates. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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Open AccessArticle
Vulnerability of Transport Networks to Multi-Scenario Flooding and Optimum Location of Emergency Management Centers
Water 2019, 11(6), 1197; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061197 - 08 Jun 2019
Cited by 1
Abstract
Floods are the climatic factors that cause more significant impacts on transportation infrastructures. This circumstance could get worse, taking into account climate change effects. The literature points out different adaptation measures to minimize the possible increasing effects caused by climate change. Among them [...] Read more.
Floods are the climatic factors that cause more significant impacts on transportation infrastructures. This circumstance could get worse, taking into account climate change effects. The literature points out different adaptation measures to minimize the possible increasing effects caused by climate change. Among them is the improvement of the vulnerability of a transport network and Emergency Management Systems. The effective management of emergencies is of vital importance to minimize the potential damage resulting from a catastrophe. Given such circumstances, analysis of the vulnerability of networks is a technique whose results highlight deficiencies and serve as support for future decisions concerning the transformation of the network or the installation of new emergency centers. The main objective of this research is to highlight the vulnerability of the road network in a variety of multi-contingency scenarios related to flooding and to identify the optimal location for a new emergency management center based on that analysis. The results obtained could be used in urban planning tasks to improve the resilience of urban areas in the face of an increase in flood episodes caused by climate change. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties)
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