# Flood Risk Evaluation in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Poisson Regression

^{*}

## Abstract

**:**

## 1. Introduction

## 2. Study Area and Data

#### 2.1. Study Area

#### 2.2. Data Source

#### 2.3. Derivation of Hazard Factors

#### 2.3.1. Frequency of Flood Alarming Events

#### 2.3.2. Topological Factors

#### 2.3.3. Hydrological Factors

#### 2.3.4. NDVI

#### 2.3.5. Trigger Factors

## 3. Methodology

#### 3.1. Factors Selection

#### 3.2. Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Poisson Regression

#### 3.2.1. Construction of Spatial Weight Matrix

#### 3.2.2. Calculation of Eigenvectors

#### 3.2.3. Z-Score Normalization

#### 3.2.4. Eigenvector Selection

#### 3.2.5. Coefficient Calculation

#### 3.3. Model Assessment

#### 3.3.1. Accuracy of Model Fitting

#### 3.3.2. AIC

#### 3.3.3. Leave-One-Out Cross Validation (LOOCV)

#### 3.4. Flood Risk Mapping

## 4. Results

#### 4.1. Factor Selection

#### 4.2. Results of Model Coefficients

*******,

******,

*****and

**·**represent that the p-value is less than the threshold of 0, 0.001 and 0.05, respectively.

#### 4.3. Model Assessment

#### 4.4. Spatial Pattern of Flood Risk

## 5. Discussion

#### 5.1. Improvement in the Accuracy of the Flood Risk EVALUATION Model

#### 5.2. Determination of Significant Factors

#### 5.3. Limitations and Future Enhancements

## 6. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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Data Product Name | Resolution | Data Source |
---|---|---|

GDEMDEM 30 M | 30 m | http://www.gscloud.cn/ |

MODIS NDVI | 500 m | http://www.gscloud.cn/ |

Hydrological Observation Data | daily | http://61.187.56.156/wap/index_sq.asp |

TRMM_3B42RT | 0.25 degree | https://precip.gsfc.nasa.gov/index.html |

River Network | vector | http://ngcc.sbsm.gov.cn/ |

Moran’s I | Expectation | Variance | p-Value | R Squared | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Frequency | 0.3246 | −0.0097 | 0.0040 | $1.547\times {10}^{-7}$ | |

OLS residual | 0.2255 | −0.039 | 0.0043 | $2.743\times {10}^{-5}$ | 0.2623 |

Factor | ELE | SLO | ESD | DEN | RAIN | EXE | DIST | ACC | NDVI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

VIF | 1.299 | 10.944 | 10.460 | 1.783 | 2.678 | 6.095 | 1.156 | 5.339 | 1.090 |

Factor | ELE | ESD | DEN | RAIN | EXE | DIST | ACC | NDVI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

VIF | 1.331 | 1.236 | 1.837 | 2.804 | 5.980 | 1.155 | 5.265 | 1.099 |

Model | PS | NB | ESFPS | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Factors | Coefficient | p-Value | Coefficient | p-Value | Coefficient | p-Value |

ELE | −1.58272 | 0 *** | −0.9996 | 0.001683 ** | −0.0066 | 0 *** |

ESD | −0.25210 | 0 *** | −0.19299 | 0.368332 | −0.0769 | 0.28752 |

DEN | −0.06189 | 0.11095 | 0.07266 | 0.749230 | 0.0630 | 0.000915 ** |

DIST | −0.56152 | 0 *** | −0.79702 | 0.000618 *** | −0.0187 | 0 *** |

RAIN | −0.11253 | 0.00136 ** | −0.03248 | 0.897488 | 0.0006 | 0.5612 |

EXE | 0.59830 | 0 *** | 0.58400 | 0.053373 | 1.0334 | 0 *** |

ACC | 2.876 | 0 *** | −0.70197 | 0.014845 * | 5.6894 | 0 *** |

NDVI | −0.2313 | 0 *** | −0.18582 | 0.252906 | −2.3345 | 0 *** |

Intercept | 1.7188 | 0 *** | 1.8193 | 0 *** | 1.4003 | 0 *** |

Eigenvectors | Coefficient | p-Value |
---|---|---|

EV1 | 4.1934 | 0.039604 * |

EV2 | 8.3770 | 0.000133 ** |

EV7 | −4.0476 | 0.002899 *** |

Model | AIC | Pseudo R Squared | LOOCV | Moran’s I (Expectation) |
---|---|---|---|---|

PS | 1979.4 | 0.56 | 817.9884 | −0.01929 (−0.0097) |

NB | 944.86 | 0.47 | 608.1647 | 0.05737 (−0.0097) |

ESFPS | 1040.3 | 0.78 | 430.4137 | 0.01958 (−0.0097) |

Factor | Weight | Rank |
---|---|---|

ACC | 5.6894 | 1 |

NDVI | −2.3345 | 2 |

EXE | 1.0334 | 3 |

DIST | −0.0187 | 4 |

DEN | 0.063 | 5 |

ELE | −0.0066 | 6 |

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Fang, T.; Chen, Y.; Tan, H.; Cao, J.; Liao, J.; Huang, L. Flood Risk Evaluation in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Poisson Regression. *Water* **2019**, *11*, 1969.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w11101969

**AMA Style**

Fang T, Chen Y, Tan H, Cao J, Liao J, Huang L. Flood Risk Evaluation in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Poisson Regression. *Water*. 2019; 11(10):1969.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w11101969

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Fang, Tao, Yumin Chen, Huangyuan Tan, Jiping Cao, Jiaxin Liao, and Liheng Huang. 2019. "Flood Risk Evaluation in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Poisson Regression" *Water* 11, no. 10: 1969.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w11101969