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Hydrological Responses under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities

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A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 July 2023) | Viewed by 24303

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Prof. Dr. Lyuliu Liu

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Guest Editor

National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Interests: assessemnt of climate change impacts; hydrological pridiction; hydrological projection; hydrological extremes; statistical downscaling; risk of climate change

Dr. Pengcheng Qin

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Guest Editor Assistant

Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan, China
Interests: climate change; water resource; flood; drought; hydropower

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The shortage of water resources and hydrological extremes such as droughts and floods are critical issues for human beings and for the sustainable development of the economy and society. In recent decades, the hydrological cycle and water resources’ systems have been extensively influenced by climate change and anthropogenic activities. This has led to significant changes in water resources and hydrology, thereby enhancing various hydrological problem in some regions. Furthermore, global warming will continue in the coming years. Scientists must keep an eye on issues regarding climate change and water.

This Special Issue aims to discuss the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on hydrology, including but not limited to: changes in hydrology and water resources at a regional or global scale, the response of the hydrological cycle to climate change, impacts of land use, irrigation, reservoirs, and other anthropogenic activities on water resources, hydrological modeling under a changing environment, future hydrological parameter projection with GCMs and hydrological models, etc.

We are pleased to invite you to submit new scientific findings to this Special Issue and improve our understanding of climate change and water. In this Special Issue, original research articles and reviews are welcome.

We look forward to receiving your contributions.

Prof. Dr. Lyuliu Liu
Guest Editor

Dr. Pengcheng Qin
Guest Editor Assistant

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Keywords

climate change
climate change impacts
climatic and hydrologic models
hydrological modeling
climate downscaling
attribution of runoff change
hydrological extreme events (e.g., droughts, storms, and floods)
hydrological prediction and projection
uncertainty and risk

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Published Papers (10 papers)

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Research

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18 pages, 5845 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Projections of Mean and Extreme Precipitation Using the CMIP6 Model: A Study of the Yangtze River Basin in China

by Changrui Zhu, Qun Yue and Jiaqi Huang

Water 2023, 15(17), 3043; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15173043 - 25 Aug 2023

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2346

Abstract

In this study, we conducted an analysis of the CN05.1 daily precipitation observation dataset spanning from 1985 to 2014. Subsequently, we ranked the 30 global climate model datasets within the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset using the RS rank score method. Multi-model weighted-ensemble averaging was then performed based on these RS scores, followed by a revision of the multi-model weighted-ensemble averaging (rs-MME) using the quantile mapping method. The revised rs-MME model data were utilized for simulating precipitation variations within the Yangtze River Basin. We specifically selected 11 extreme-precipitation indices to comprehensively evaluate the capability of the revised rs-MME model data in simulating extreme-precipitation occurrences in the region. Our investigation culminated in predicting the characteristics of precipitation and the potential shifts in extreme-precipitation patterns across the region under three distinct shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for three temporal segments: the Near 21C (2021–2040), Mid 21C (2041–2070), and Late 21C (2071–2100). Our findings reveal that the revised rs-MME model data effectively resolve the issues of the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation data present in the previous model. This leads to an enhanced simulation of mean annual precipitation, the 95th percentile of precipitation, and the extreme-precipitation index for the historical period. However, there are shortcomings in the simulation of linear trends in mean annual precipitation, alongside a significant overestimation of the CWD and CDD indices. Furthermore, our analysis forecasts a noteworthy increase in future mean annual precipitation within the Yangtze River Basin region, with a proportional rise in forced radiation across varying scenarios. Notably, an ascending trend of precipitation is detected at the headwaters of the Yangtze River Basin, specifically under the Late 21C SSP5-8.5 scenario, while a descending trend is observed in other scenarios. Conversely, there is an escalating pattern of precipitation within the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, with most higher-rate changes situated in the middle reaches. Regarding extreme-precipitation indices, similar to the annual average precipitation, a remarkable upsurge is evident in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, whereas a relatively modest increasing trend prevails at the headwaters of the Yangtze River Basin. Notably, the SSP5-8.5 scenario portrays a substantial increase in extreme-precipitation indices. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Responses under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities)

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20 pages, 5629 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Study on Response Process and Time Delay Effect of Groundwater Dynamic in Northeastern Margin of Tibetan Plateau

by Shuhong Song, Huanhuan Li, Mi Yang, Zhao Gu, Xiaohang Wang, Wenting Zhang and Yongzhi Liu

Water 2023, 15(15), 2838; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15152838 - 6 Aug 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1749

Abstract

Under the background of drastic global climate change, the evolution law of groundwater resources in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau presents new characteristics, and the groundwater is gradually becoming more complicated, diversified and disordered. In this study, cross-correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and cross-wavelet transform were used to explore the response mechanism and time delay effect of groundwater, exploitation amount, rainfall and surface runoff in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that the groundwater depth increased with the increase in the exploitation amount and decreased with the increase in the rainfall-to-exploitation ration and the surface runoff-to-exploitation ratio from 1980 to 2020. On the annual scale, groundwater, rainfall and surface runoff had a strong cohesiveness period of 12a. On the monthly scale, groundwater lagged behind rainfall and surface runoff for 3 months and 2 months, respectively. The above conclusions provide a scientific theoretical basis for deepening the characteristics of groundwater endowment, the evolution law of water cycle elements and the theory of the hydrological cycle in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Responses under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities)

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18 pages, 10712 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts of Extreme Cold Events in S2S Models

by Xiaoyun Liang, Frederic Vitart and Tongwen Wu

Water 2023, 15(15), 2795; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15152795 - 2 Aug 2023

Viewed by 1481

Abstract

The probabilistic prediction skill of the weekly forecasts of extreme cold events (ECE) is illustrated and measured in the form of the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and the area under Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves based on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project database. The ROC scores show that six S2S models have the good potential predictability skill required for use in ECE probabilistic forecasts, and they were more useful than climatologic probabilistic models in creating forecasts of about 3–4 weeks in length. However, the BSS results show that the actual prediction skill of six models used in ECE probabilistic forecasts are different. The ECMWF model has a good performance, and its actual probabilistic prediction skill of ECE for forecasts of about 3–4 weeks in length was higher than those of climatology, which operates close to its potential predictability. The actual probabilistic prediction skill of the NCEP model for ECE was only about 2 weeks over the extra-tropics, and no skill was recorded over the tropics given its bad reliability, especially over the tropics. BoM, JMA, and CNRM models only have a 1-week actual prediction skill over the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, and they have no skill over the rest of the world’s land area. The CNR-ISAC model has a 1-week actual prediction skill over the extra-tropics and about 4 weeks over the tropics. There is still much room for improvement in the prediction ability of models used for ECE. MJO in tropical regions has an important influence on the probabilistic prediction skill of ECE required at middle and high latitudes. When there is an MJO in the initial conditions, the potential predictability and actual prediction skill of ECE probabilistic forecasts over North America in the 3rd week and over Europe in the 3rd–4th weeks are higher than those without MJO. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Responses under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities)

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15 pages, 3614 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Changes in Runoff in the Source Region of the Yellow River Basin Based on CMIP6 Data under the Goal of Carbon Neutrality

by Yihua Liu, Lyuliu Liu, Lin Li, Hongmei Li, Hongmei Xu, Jing Yang, Shiyin Tao and Baowen Zhu

Water 2023, 15(13), 2457; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15132457 - 4 Jul 2023

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1904

Abstract

China is committed to achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. This study projected the changes in climate and runoff in the source region of the Yellow River Basin for 2021–2060 under lower carbon emission pathways (SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5) using a statistically downscaled climate dataset and the SWAT hydrological model. Results showed that the climate will become warmer and wetter from 2021–2060. In comparison with the baseline period (1995–2014), in terms of the ensemble mean, annual mean air temperature, annual precipitation, and annual runoff will increase by 1.3 °C and 1.6 °C, by 11.1% and 11.2%, and by 12.8% and 11.9% under SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, the seasonal pattern of runoff was projected to change. The proportion of monthly runoff to the annual total will decrease by 0.6–1.0% in summer but increase by 0.1–1.0% during the period from January to April and September to December. The multimodel ensemble mean (MEM) of extremely high monthly flow (Q10) will increase by 3.5–13.4% in the flood season (June to August) and water storage season (September to December). The MEM of extremely low monthly flow (Q90) will increase by 19.4–26.2% from February to April but decrease by 5.0–8.9% in January, May, and December. Thus, the warmer and wetter climate from 2021–2060 will likely cause flatter seasonal distribution of runoff, lower risk of water scarcity at the annual scale and of drought from February to April, but higher risk both of flood in the flood season and of drought in December, January, and May. Generally, the flatter pattern of runoff would likely alleviate water scarcity in the dry and water storage seasons to some degree, and the increase in monthly runoff in the water storage season will benefit hydroelectric power generation and agriculture and animal husbandry production. However, in some years, the increase in Q10 in the flood season will likely increase flood prevention pressure, and the decrease in Q90 in May will likely obstruct grass revival. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Responses under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities)

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16 pages, 7677 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Contribution of Evaporation to Precipitation Changes in the Yangtze River Basin—Precipitation Recycling

by Xiucang Li and Ping Wu

Water 2023, 15(13), 2407; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15132407 - 29 Jun 2023

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2216

Abstract

Locally evaporated water vapor is an important source of precipitation in China. The spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the precipitation recycling ratio (ρ) in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in 1979–2020 were calculated and analyzed, and the contribution of internal and external cycling precipitation changes to the total precipitation changes in YRB under climate change was studied. The results show that the annual average ρ in YRB is approximately 10.3%, with the highest value of 21.8% in summer, lower than 10% in spring and autumn, and the lowest in winter, with only approximately 3.5%. Over the past 40 years, the annual average ρ in YRB has shown an increasing trend, with an increased rate of 0.4%/10a, especially in summer, with an increasing rate of 1.2%/10a. In terms of spatial distribution, ρ in YRB shows an obvious difference between the eastern and western regions, with that in the upstream western region being significantly higher than that in the downstream eastern region. The annual average ρ in the upstream region was 15–35% and can reach 20–50% in summer. The annual average ρ in the downstream region is below 10%. In general, precipitation formed by advection moisture accounts for the majority of the total precipitation in YRB. From 1979 to 2020, the annual precipitation in YRB showed an increasing trend. The cumulative increase is about 47.4 mm, of which 68.9% was contributed by local evaporation, and 31.1% was contributed by external moisture. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Responses under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities)

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22 pages, 14726 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact of Future Climate and Land Use Changes on Runoff in a Typical Karst Basin, Southwest China

by Chongxun Mo, Mengxiang Bao, Shufeng Lai, Juan Deng, Peiyu Tang, Zhenxiang Xing, Gang Tang and Lingguang Li

Water 2023, 15(12), 2240; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15122240 - 14 Jun 2023

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 1923

Abstract

Climate change and land use change are the two main factors affecting the regional water cycle and water resources management. However, runoff studies in the karst basin based on future scenario projections are still lacking. To fill this gap, this study proposes a framework consisting of a future land use simulation model (FLUS), an automated statistical downscaling model (ASD), a soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and a multi-point calibration strategy. This frameword was used to investigate runoff changes under future climate and land use changes in karst watersheds. The Chengbi River basin, a typical karst region in southwest China, was selected as the study area. The ASD method was developed for climate change projections based on the CanESM5 climate model. Future land use scenarios were projected using the FLUS model and historical land use data. Finally, the SWAT model was calibrated using a multi-site calibration strategy and was used to predict future runoff from 2025–2100. The results show that: (1) the developed SWAT model obtained a Nash efficiency coefficient of 0.83, which can adequately capture the spatial heterogeneity characteristics of karst hydro-climate; (2) land use changes significantly in all three future scenarios, with the main phenomena being the interconversion of farmland and grassland in SSPs1-2.6, the interconversion of grassland, farmland and artificial surfaces in SSPs2-4.5 and the interconversion of woodland, grassland and artificial surfaces in SSPs5-8.5; (3) the average annual temperature will show an upward trend in the future, and the average annual precipitation will increase by 11.53–14.43% and (4) the future annual runoff will show a significant upward trend, with monthly runoff mainly concentrated in July–September. The variability and uncertainty of future runoff during the main-flood period may increase compared to the historical situation. The findings will benefit future water resources management and water security in the karst basin. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Responses under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities)

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27 pages, 21707 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evolutionary Characteristics of Runoff in a Changing Environment: A Case Study of Dawen River, China

by Xuyang Yang, Jun Xia, Jian Liu, Jiake Li, Mingsen Wang and Yanyan Li

Water 2023, 15(4), 636; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15040636 - 6 Feb 2023

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1939

Abstract

Watershed water cycles undergo profound changes under changing environments. Analyses of runoff evolution characteristics are fundamental to our understanding of the evolution of water cycles under changing environments. In this study, linear regression, moving average, Mann–Kendall, Pettitt, accumulative anomaly, STARS, wavelet analysis, and CEEMDAN methods were used to analyze the trends, mutations, and periodic and intrinsic dynamic patterns of runoff evolution using long-term historical data. The intra-annual distribution of runoff in the Dawen River Basin was uneven, with an overall decreasing trend and mutations in 1975–1976. The main periods of runoff were 1.9 and 2.2 years, and the strongest oscillations in the study period occurred in 1978–1983. The runoff decomposition high-frequency term (intra-annual fluctuation term) had a stronger fluctuation frequency, with a period of 0.51–0.55 years, while the low-frequency term (interannual fluctuation term) had a period of 1.55–2.26 years. The trend term for the runoff decomposition tended to decrease throughout the monitoring period and gradually stabilized at the end of the monitoring period, while the period gradually decreased from upstream to downstream. In summary, we used multiple methods to analyze the evolutionary characteristics of runoff, which are of great relevance to the adaptive management of water resources under changing environments. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Responses under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities)

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14 pages, 1716 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Projected Water Scarcity and Hydrological Extremes in the Yellow River Basin in the 21st Century under SSP-RCP Scenarios

by Lyuliu Liu, Chan Xiao and Yihua Liu

Water 2023, 15(3), 446; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15030446 - 22 Jan 2023

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3368

Abstract

This study investigated the potential impacts of climate change on water scarcity and hydrological extremes in the Yellow River Basin in the near-term (2026–2050), mid-term (2051–2075), and long-term (2076–2100) periods under three combined pathways of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) SSP1–2.6, SSP2–45, and SSP5–8.5 relative to the reference period (1986–2010), based on the runoff simulation through the Huayuankou hydrological station using the HBV-D hydrological model, which was forced by a statistically downscaling dataset. The results indicate that water shortage would still threaten the Yellow River because annual runoff will remain below 1000 m³/year, although water scarcity would be alleviated to some degree. More and larger floods will happen in summer in the 21st century, especially in the long-term period under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. More Hydrological droughts will occur during July–October, and some extreme droughts would likely exceed the historical largest magnitudes in July and August in the long term under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Responses under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities)

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16 pages, 4055 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Climate Change Impacts on Runoff in the Fujiang River Basin Based on CMIP6 and SWAT Model

by Yong Wang, Hong-Mei Xu, Yong-Hua Li, Lyu-Liu Liu, Zu-Heng Hu, Chan Xiao and Tian-Tian Yang

Water 2022, 14(22), 3614; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14223614 - 10 Nov 2022

Cited by 16 | Viewed by 3331

Abstract

Understanding the responses of the hydrological cycle and extreme events to climate change is essential for basin water security. This study systematically assessed climate change impacts on runoff and floods in the Fujiang River basin, which is the main tributary of the upper Yangtze River, China, using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) driven by the latest climate simulation of 14 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). This study indicates a generally warmer and wetter climate projected in the Fujiang River basin, and correspondingly an overall increase in projected ensemble annual mean runoff, monthly runoff, monthly high flow (Q05), and monthly low flow (Q95) in the periods of 2021–2060 and 2061–2100, with the long-term period being more substantial than that of the near future, especially for SSP5-8.5. However, the projected changes in monthly runoff show a large spread across GCMs, with greater increases mainly occurring in the early rainy season. Most of the GCMs show that projections of Q95 will substantially increase compared to Q05. The intensity and frequency of floods with a 30-year return period are likely to increase, especially under SSP5-8.5. Despite the uncertainties in projected future changes in runoff, these findings highlight the complexity of runoff response to climate change, promoting the need for adaptive water resource management. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Responses under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities)

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Review

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14 pages, 336 KiB

Open AccessReview

Responses of Terrestrial Evapotranspiration to Extreme Drought: A Review

by Qiu-Lan He, Jun-Lan Xiao and Wei-Yu Shi

Water 2022, 14(23), 3847; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14233847 - 26 Nov 2022

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3107

Abstract

Terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is crucial to the exchange of global carbon, water, and energy cycles and links the hydrological and ecological processes. The frequency and intensity of extreme droughts are expected to increase due to ongoing climate change, strongly impacting terrestrial ET with implications for ecosystems, societies, and climate systems. However, the response of terrestrial ET to extreme drought and the underlying mechanism of terrestrial ET change during droughts are still unclear. Here, we review previous studies on terrestrial ET’s responses to extreme drought and investigate the control factors of ET change in response to extreme drought under different situations. The response of terrestrial ET to extreme drought is affected by various factors including the duration and intensity of the drought, the original climate conditions, as well as the plant species. Terrestrial ET change during droughts is controlled by complex biological and physical processes that can be divided into four parts including supply, energy, demand, and vegetation activities. The response of terrestrial ET to elevate CO₂ may offset the effects of drought because CO₂ fertilization tends to increase water use efficiency through stomatal regulation. We found that large uncertainties remain in the terrestrial ET response to drought due to the discrepancies among different ET products and simulations. This work highlights the requirement for accurate estimates of ET changes in ET products and models. This review provides a systematic investigation of the terrestrial ET response to extreme drought and the underlying mechanism of terrestrial ET changes during droughts and will significantly improve the development of water management strategies under climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Responses under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities)

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