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Populations

Populations is an international, peer-reviewed, open access journal on demography and population-related issues, published quarterly online by MDPI.
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  • Rapid Publication: first decisions in 18 days; acceptance to publication in 7 days (median values for MDPI journals in the first half of 2026).
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All Articles (50)

  • Article
  • Open Access

The Wittgenstein Centre’s population projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) resolve each country’s population by age, sex, and six levels of educational attainment, serving as the standard demographic input for global environmental change research. Like most projections, they end in 2100, at the world’s population peak—precisely when pivotal transitions begin. This paper extends these projections to 2300 for 200 countries, retaining the full age–sex–education structure and applying explicit long-run assumptions for fertility, mortality, migration, and educational transition. The global population peaks and then declines over centuries. Under the middle-of-the-road pathway, it falls to 4.2 billion by 2300, with 22.5% aged 80 or older and 16.8% below age 20; under the sustainability pathway, it approaches 1 billion, with the oldest-old share peaking above 30% before stabilising near 26%. In the reference pathway, 23 countries reach their peak population only after 2100, and Africa’s share of the world population rises from 17% in 2020 to 43% in 2300, while Asia’s falls from 60% to 39%. Divergence between pathways increases from a 1.6-fold difference in 2100 to a 16-fold difference in 2300; thus, truncating projections at 2100 understates the consequences of the underlying assumptions. Post-peak decline represents a prolonged demographic regime, not a brief episode, and robust analysis of ageing, labour, care, migration, and environmental change requires population pathways extending beyond 2100 that retain age, education, and geography.

Populations

30 October 2026

Global population trajectories, 2020–2300. The thinner segments show WIC/SSP trajectories to 2100 and the thicker segments show the extension after 2100. The shaded band around SSP2 spans the two sensitivity variants in which the long-run total fertility rate converges to 1.50 and 2.00 children per woman instead of 1.75. Population is shown in billions. Colour, line type and marker shape distinguish scenarios.
  • Article
  • Open Access

East Asian societies have experienced profound changes in family formation, yet comparative evidence on the number of children reported by women across successive surveys remains limited. Using harmonized East Asian Social Survey data from 2006 to 2018, we examine cumulative reported child counts in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. We describe society–wave patterns, calculate survey-weighted age-standardized means for women aged 25–49, and estimate weighted Poisson models of demographic and socioeconomic correlates. The main analytical sample includes 12,786 women, with additional family-attitude measures available in the 2006 and 2016 surveys. Reported counts generally vary with age and education: women with higher education report fewer children than those in the lowest education category, conditional on observed characteristics. In China, the pronounced difference between unweighted all-age means in 2012 and 2015 is substantially attenuated when comparisons are restricted to ages 25–49 and age-standardized. A positive China-by-later-wave contrast is sensitive to the age range examined and does not identify an effect of fertility-policy reform. These findings highlight the importance of demographic composition and social stratification for understanding cumulative family-size patterns across East Asia.

Populations

5 November 2026

  • Article
  • Open Access

A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Stomach Cancer Mortality in the U.S. (2010–2019)

  • Raid Amin,
  • Dean Van Middelkoop and
  • Johnathon Graham
  • + 1 author

Stomach cancer remains an important public health concern in the United States. Through investigation of known risk factors, this study aims to map statistically significant geographical differences in mortality indicators for stomach cancer. County-level mortality data (2010–2019) were analyzed using SaTScan with a negative binomial regression to pinpoint purely spatial and space–time clusters of elevated mortality counts and rates. Significant spatial and space–time mortality clusters were identified, with age, physical inactivity, and unemployment among the strongest predictors. By procuring key evidence on the spatial and temporal dispersal of deaths due to stomach cancer in the United States, this study brings to light geographic disparities which warrant targeted public health interventions.

Populations

14 October 2026

  • Article
  • Open Access

Lifespan varies among individuals, and this variation arises both from heterogeneity (e.g., in sex or race) and from unavoidable individual stochasticity. Treating a heterogeneous population as a mixture of groups, each experiencing different rates, makes it possible to partition lifespan variance into a between-group component due to heterogeneity and a within-group component due to chance. Until now, such studies could only treat factors one at a time. This paper presents an analysis that applies to multi-factor studies and quantifies the contribution of multiple factors and their interactions to variance in lifespan. As a case study it is applied to life table data from a four-factor (sex, marital status, education, and race) study of longevity in the U.S. population, 2015–2019. Even accounting for four main factors, six two-way interactions, four three-way interactions, and one four-way interaction, between-group heterogeneity accounts for only 7% to 10% of lifespan variance. Education and its interactions make the largest contribution. Main effects make the largest contributions; those of two-way, three-way, and four-way interactions are orders of magnitude smaller.

Populations

12 October 2026

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Populations - ISSN 3042-4372