International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

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4 pages, 254 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Introduction to the Special Issue on Cascading Disaster Modelling and Prevention

by Thomas J. Huggins, Lili Yang and Didier Sornette

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(9), 4813; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18094813 - 30 Apr 2021

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2186

Abstract

The 2019 Global Assessment Report (GAR2019) on Disaster Risk Reduction [...] Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cascading Disaster Modelling and Prevention)

Research

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24 pages, 4689 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Time Granularity Impact on Propagation of Disruptions in a System-of-Systems Simulation of Infrastructure and Business Networks

by Mateusz Iwo Dubaniowski and Hans Rudolf Heinimann

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(8), 3922; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18083922 - 8 Apr 2021

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2472

Abstract

A system-of-systems (SoS) approach is often used for simulating disruptions to business and infrastructure system networks allowing for integration of several models into one simulation. However, the integration is frequently challenging as each system is designed individually with different characteristics, such as time [...] Read more.

A system-of-systems (SoS) approach is often used for simulating disruptions to business and infrastructure system networks allowing for integration of several models into one simulation. However, the integration is frequently challenging as each system is designed individually with different characteristics, such as time granularity. Understanding the impact of time granularity on propagation of disruptions between businesses and infrastructure systems and finding the appropriate granularity for the SoS simulation remain as major challenges. To tackle these, we explore how time granularity, recovery time, and disruption size affect the propagation of disruptions between constituent systems of an SoS simulation. To address this issue, we developed a high level architecture (HLA) simulation of three networks and performed a series of simulation experiments. Our results revealed that time granularity and especially recovery time have huge impact on propagation of disruptions. Consequently, we developed a model for selecting an appropriate time granularity for an SoS simulation based on expected recovery time. Our simulation experiments show that time granularity should be less than 1.13 of expected recovery time. We identified some areas for future research centered around extending the experimental factors space. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cascading Disaster Modelling and Prevention)

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18 pages, 8427 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Numerical Simulation of Na-Tech Cascading Disasters in a Large Oil Depot

by Shaobiao Zhang, Dayong Xu, Gansu Shen, Junguo Liu and Lili Yang

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(22), 8620; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17228620 - 20 Nov 2020

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1875

Abstract

The mechanism of natural-hazard-triggered technological (Na-tech) cascading disasters is complex, and the extent to which their damage is aggravated by various secondary events is difficult to quantify. This study selected a large oil depot and constructed a full-scale three-dimensional scene model based on [...] Read more.

The mechanism of natural-hazard-triggered technological (Na-tech) cascading disasters is complex, and the extent to which their damage is aggravated by various secondary events is difficult to quantify. This study selected a large oil depot and constructed a full-scale three-dimensional scene model based on the surrounding geographical environment. The discrete element method (DEM), finite element method (FEM) and finite volume method (FVM) were employed to conduct numerical simulations of the process and consequences of the following Na-tech disasters: heavy-rainfall-induced landslide → blocks impacting an oil transportation pipeline and breaking it → oil leaking, spreading and resulting in a vapor cloud explosion. According to the results, the maximum impact of the 1 m³ of sliding mass formed in the landslide on the pipeline was over 7 MN (meganewton), and the pipeline fractured completely when it was loaded with a contact force of only 1.44 MN. The numerical simulation methods revealed the mechanism of Na-tech cascading disasters in a large oil depot and quantified the consequences of each event in the cascading disasters. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cascading Disaster Modelling and Prevention)

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21 pages, 5130 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Exploring the Space of Possibilities in Cascading Disasters with Catastrophe Dynamics

by Arnaud Mignan and Ziqi Wang

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(19), 7317; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17197317 - 7 Oct 2020

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 3338

Abstract

Some of the most devastating natural events on Earth, such as earthquakes and tropical cyclones, are prone to trigger other natural events, critical infrastructure failures, and socioeconomic disruptions. Man-made disasters may have similar effects, although to a lesser degree. We investigate the space [...] Read more.

Some of the most devastating natural events on Earth, such as earthquakes and tropical cyclones, are prone to trigger other natural events, critical infrastructure failures, and socioeconomic disruptions. Man-made disasters may have similar effects, although to a lesser degree. We investigate the space of possible interactions between 19 types of loss-generating events, first by encoding possible one-to-one interactions into an adjacency matrix

A

, and second by calculating the interaction matrix

M

of emergent chains-of-events. We first present the impact of 24 topologies of

A

on

M

to illustrate the non-trivial patterns of cascading processes, in terms of the space of possibilities covered and of interaction amplification by feedback loops. We then encode

A

from 29 historical cases of cascading disasters and compute the matching matrix

M

. We observe, subject to data incompleteness, emergent cascading behaviors in the technological and socioeconomic systems, across all possible triggers (natural or man-made); disease is also a systematic emergent phenomenon. We find interactions being mostly amplified via two events: network failure and business interruption, the two events with the highest in-degree and betweenness centralities. This analysis demonstrates how cascading disasters grow in and cross over natural, technological, and socioeconomic systems. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cascading Disaster Modelling and Prevention)

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25 pages, 3957 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Infrastructural Aspects of Rain-Related Cascading Disasters: A Systematic Literature Review

by Thomas J. Huggins, Feiyu E, Kangming Chen, Wenwu Gong and Lili Yang

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(14), 5175; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17145175 - 17 Jul 2020

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2638

Abstract

Cascading disasters progress from one hazard event to a range of interconnected events and impacts, with often devastating consequences. Rain-related cascading disasters are a particularly frequent form of cascading disasters in many parts of the world, and they are likely to become even [...] Read more.

Cascading disasters progress from one hazard event to a range of interconnected events and impacts, with often devastating consequences. Rain-related cascading disasters are a particularly frequent form of cascading disasters in many parts of the world, and they are likely to become even more frequent due to climate change and accelerating coastal development, among other issues. (1) Background: The current literature review extended previous reviews of documented progressions from one natural hazard event to another, by focusing on linkages between rain-related natural hazard triggers and infrastructural impacts. (2) Methods: A wide range of case studies were reviewed using a systematic literature review protocol. The review quality was enhanced by only including case studies that detailed mechanisms that have led to infrastructural impacts, and which had been published in high-quality academic journals. (3) Results: A sum of 71 articles, concerning 99 case studies of rain-related disasters, were fully reviewed. Twenty-five distinct mechanisms were identified, as the foundation for a matrix running between five different natural hazards and eight types of infrastructural impacts. (4) Conclusion: Relatively complex quantitative methods are needed to generate locality-specific, cascading disaster likelihoods and scenarios. Appropriate methods can leverage the current matrix to structure both Delphi-based approaches and network analysis using longitudinal data. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cascading Disaster Modelling and Prevention)

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17 pages, 1164 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of Necessary Support in the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster Area

by Moeka Harada, Kazuko Ishikawa-Takata and Nobuyo Tsuboyama-Kasaoka

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(10), 3475; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17103475 - 16 May 2020

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2498

Abstract

Altogether, 1588 dietitians were dispatched from the Japan Dietetic Association (JDA) to a disaster area for the first time on a nationwide scale following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Various studies have been conducted based on the activity reports, but the support [...] Read more.

Altogether, 1588 dietitians were dispatched from the Japan Dietetic Association (JDA) to a disaster area for the first time on a nationwide scale following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Various studies have been conducted based on the activity reports, but the support that the disaster area requested was not documented. The purpose of this study is to identify the support that was needed in the disaster area. Therefore, we investigated the necessary support desired by dietitians who lived in the disaster areas. Questionnaires were sent to 1911 dietitians who were members of the JDA and lived in 3 affected prefectures in August 2012. In total, 435 dietitians (22.8%) completed the questionnaire. Among the questions on the questionnaire, we analyzed answers to the open-ended question: “Please write freely about the support that you wanted at the time of the disaster” (n = 332). Using qualitative descriptive analysis, we extracted data from the answers and categorized and labeled them into similar groups. These groups were divided into four categories: (1) “goods,” (2) “establishing a system in advance of a large-scale disaster,” (3) “information,” and (4) “human resources.” To provide “goods,” “information,” and “human resources” to the disaster area smoothly, it is important to plan a “system” in advance of large-scale disasters. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cascading Disaster Modelling and Prevention)

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20 pages, 2734 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Critical Hazards Identification and Prevention of Cascading Escalator Accidents at Metro Rail Transit Stations

by Zhiru Wang, Ran S. Bhamra, Min Wang, Han Xie and Lili Yang

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(10), 3400; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17103400 - 13 May 2020

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 2979

Abstract

Escalator accidents not only happen frequently but also have cascading effects. The purpose of this study is to block the formation of cascading accident networks by identifying and preventing critical hazards. A modified five-step task-driven method (FTDM) is proposed to break down passenger-related [...] Read more.

Escalator accidents not only happen frequently but also have cascading effects. The purpose of this study is to block the formation of cascading accident networks by identifying and preventing critical hazards. A modified five-step task-driven method (FTDM) is proposed to break down passenger-related cascading escalator accidents. Three complex network parameters in complex network theory are utilized to identify critical and non-critical Risk Passenger Behavior (RPB) hazards and Other Hazards related with Risk Passenger Behavior (OH-RPB) in accident chains. A total of 327 accidents that occurred in the Beijing metro rail transit (MRT) stations were used for case studies. The results are consistent in critical and non-critical RPB and OH-RPB and prove that through combination of FTDM accident investigation model and complex network analysis method, critical and non-critical RPB and OH-RPB in a complicated cascading hazards network can be identified. Prevention of critical RPB can block the formation of cascading accident networks. The method not only can be used by safety manager to make the corresponding preventive measures according to the results in daily management but also the findings can guide the allocation of limited preventive resources to critical hazards rather than non-critical hazards. Moreover, the defects of management plan and product design can be re-examined according to the research results. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cascading Disaster Modelling and Prevention)

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21 pages, 12163 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Prevention of Disasters Related to Extreme Natural Ground Deformation Events by Applying Spatial Modeling in Urban Areas (Quito, Ecuador)

by Marcelo Cando-Jácome, Antonio Martínez-Graña and Virginia Valdés

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(3), 753; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17030753 - 24 Jan 2020

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2464

Abstract

Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) is a spatial technique based on obtaining the phase differences of two radar images, acquired by a satellite from separate orbits and at different times, to obtain a ground displacement image of a study area, This image is [...] Read more.

Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) is a spatial technique based on obtaining the phase differences of two radar images, acquired by a satellite from separate orbits and at different times, to obtain a ground displacement image of a study area, This image is called interferogram. On the other hand, space syntax is a technique within architecture that is applied to quantify and describe the level of ease of population movement through any urban space in a city. It analyzes the flow, transit, displacement, accessibility and concentration of the population in areas of basic services, health, security, commerce and entertainment. What would happen if an earthquake greater than 6 or 7 Moment Magnitude-Mw occurs in these areas of intense concentration of the population that are in buildings constructed on intense deformations of the land? With respect to the seismic risk in the city of Quito, many studies related to seismic risks have been published, but there are no studies that relate the deformation of the land (INSAR) with the space syntax, so this article presents a new vision in the joint application of these tools, a useful vision for urban planners and designers, considering the occurrence of a major earthquake in areas of buildings that are located on intense land deformations and have high population concentrations. This study has been prepared in two phases: in the first phase, the built-up areas concentrated in the greatest terrain deformations by accumulated displacement obtained using the APS estimation & multitemporal analysis by PSI-InSAR time series analysis methodology and Sentinel 1A and 1B satellite images were categorized. In the second phase, through the space syntax’s theory and the use of DepthmapX, the movement patterns and traffic flows of the population were determined by means of graphs of spaces interconnected by streets (axial maps), to predict the spatial behavior of humans and its concentration in the mentioned sites. Finally, the results were integrated, determining the degree of exposure of the population found in built areas with high to very high displacement and an intense population concentration. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cascading Disaster Modelling and Prevention)

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20 pages, 4000 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Mechanism of Social Organization Participation in Natural Hazards Emergency Relief: A Case Study Based on the Social Network Analysis

by Yingxin Chen, Jing Zhang, Pandu R. Tadikamalla and Lei Zhou

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16(21), 4110; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16214110 - 25 Oct 2019

Cited by 23 | Viewed by 4008

Abstract

The uncertainty and complexity of natural hazards put forward new requirements for emergency management systems. In order to deal with natural hazards effectively, it is important to build a cooperative network between government organizations and social organizations. The social network analysis method is [...] Read more.

The uncertainty and complexity of natural hazards put forward new requirements for emergency management systems. In order to deal with natural hazards effectively, it is important to build a cooperative network between government organizations and social organizations. The social network analysis method is adopted, the April 2013 Ya’an China earthquake is taken as a case study, the institutionalized emergency organization network before the disaster and the actual response organization network after the disaster are analyzed, and centrality, between centrality, closeness centrality and core-periphery are calculated. Through qualitative and quantitative research, the functions of social organization in the process of natural hazards emergency relief are revealed, the role orientation of social organization in the emergency management network is analyzed, and the influence factors of the social organization participation in the natural hazards relief is pointed out. Research results will help to promote the cooperation between social organization and government, and improve the efficiency of natural hazards emergency relief. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cascading Disaster Modelling and Prevention)

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