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Tropical Cyclones Dynamics and Forecast System
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Tropical Cyclones Dynamics and Forecast System

A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 November 2023) | Viewed by 7727

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Sen Chiao

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
NOAA Cooperative Science Center in Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Howard University, Washington, DC 20059, USA
Interests: air quality modeling; stratospheric ozone; aerosols
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Das Debanjana

E-Mail Website1 Website2
Guest Editor
Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Howard University, Beltsville, MD 20705, USA
Interests: climate; monsoon; climate variability; modeling; precipitation; climate science; climate dynamics; regional; climate modeling
Dr. Shaowu Bao

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Marine Science, Coastal Carolina University Conway, Conway, SC 29528, USA
Interests: atmospheric and oceanic modeling; meteorology; hydrology; flooding
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Nakul Karle

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Earth, Environment and Equity, Howard University, 2400 6th St. NW, Washington, DC 20059, USA
Interests: planetary boundary layer; turbulence; remote sensing; ground-level ozone; pollutant transport
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Tropical cyclone intensity, rainfall, and larger storm surges are likely to increase as a result of global climate change, and they may intensify more rapidly and occur at higher latitudes. These results may be driven by rising sea temperatures and increased maximum water vapor content in the atmosphere as the air heats up. The 2018 US National Climate Change Assessment reported that “increases in greenhouse gases and a decrease in air pollution have contributed to increases in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1970”. This Special Issue will focus on:

  • Assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclo­­ne activity, including intensity, rainfall, and coastal flood risk;
  • Seasonal to sub-seasonal tropical cyclone predictions and future tropical cyclone probabilistic forecasts;
  • Climatological dataset analysis and uncertainty for intensity trend detection and control of tropical cyclones’ natural variabilities.

This Special Issue will provide the larger research community with a platform to share the most current advancements in these fields regarding climate change aspects of global or regional TC activity. Both fresh observational and modeling-based research are encouraged in this Special Issue.

Dr. Sen Chiao
Dr. Das Debanjana
Dr. Shaowu Bao
Dr. Karle Nakul
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Climate is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1800 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • climate change
  • tropical cyclones
  • observation techniques
  • numerical modeling

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Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

12 pages, 3127 KiB  
Article
Tropical Cyclonic Energy Variability in North Indian Ocean: Insights from ENSO
by Debanjana Das, Sen Chiao, Chayan Roychoudhury, Fatema Khan, Sutapa Chaudhuri and Sayantika Mukherjee
Climate 2023, 11(12), 232; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11120232 - 21 Nov 2023
Viewed by 2914
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the deadliest natural meteorological hazards with destructive winds and heavy rains, resulting losses often reach billions of dollars, imposing a substantial and long-lasting burden on both local and national economies. The El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a tropical [...] Read more.
Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the deadliest natural meteorological hazards with destructive winds and heavy rains, resulting losses often reach billions of dollars, imposing a substantial and long-lasting burden on both local and national economies. The El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction, is known to significantly impact cyclonic systems over global ocean basins. This study investigates the variability of TC activity in the presence of ENSO over the North Indian Ocean (NIO), comprising the Arabian Sea (ARB) and the Bay of Bengal (BOB) basins during the pre- and post-monsoon season, using accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over the last 29 years. Our analysis reveals a significant rise in tropical cyclone energy intensity over the past two decades, with eight of the ten most active years occurring since the 2000s. Total ACE over the NIO is found to be higher in La-Niña. Higher ACE observed over ARB is strongly associated with a combination of elevated sea surface height (SSH) anomaly and low vertical wind shear during the El-Niño episodes, with higher sea surface temperatures (SST) during the post-monsoon season. Whereas in the BOB, El Niño not only reduces ACE, but also decreases basin-wide variability, and more pronounced effects during the post-monsoon season, coinciding with warmer SST and higher SSH along the coast during La-Niña. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones Dynamics and Forecast System)
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19 pages, 914 KiB  
Article
The Relationship between Madden–Julian Oscillation Moist Convective Circulations and Tropical Cyclone Genesis
by Patrick Haertel
Climate 2023, 11(7), 134; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11070134 - 25 Jun 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1844
Abstract
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a planetary-scale weather system that creates a 30–60 day oscillation in zonal winds and precipitation in the tropics. Its envelope of enhanced rainfall forms over the Indian Ocean and moves slowly eastward before dissipating near the Date Line. [...] Read more.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a planetary-scale weather system that creates a 30–60 day oscillation in zonal winds and precipitation in the tropics. Its envelope of enhanced rainfall forms over the Indian Ocean and moves slowly eastward before dissipating near the Date Line. The MJO modulates tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, intensity, and landfall in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans. This study examines the mechanisms by which the MJO alters TC genesis. In particular, MJO circulations are partitioned into Kelvin and Rossby waves for each of the developing, mature, and dissipating stages of the convective envelope, and locations of TC genesis are related to these circulations. Throughout the MJO’s convective life cycle, TC genesis is inhibited to the east of the convective envelope, and enhanced just west of the convective envelope. The inhibition of TC genesis to the east of the MJO is largely due to vertical motion associated with the Kelvin wave circulation, as is the enhancement of TC genesis just west of the MJO during the developing stage. During the mature and dissipating stages, the MJO’s Rossby gyres intensify, creating regions of low-level vorticity, favoring TC genesis to its west. Over the 36-year period considered here, the MJO modulation of TC genesis increases due to the intensification of the MJO’s Kelvin wave circulation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones Dynamics and Forecast System)
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14 pages, 19771 KiB  
Article
Quantifying Aggravated Threats to Stormwater Management Ponds by Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Inundation under Climate Change Scenarios
by Hongyuan Zhang, Dongliang Shen, Shaowu Bao, Leonard Pietrafesa, Paul T. Gayes and Hamed Majidzadeh
Climate 2022, 10(10), 157; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10100157 - 21 Oct 2022
Viewed by 1938
Abstract
Stormwater management ponds (SMPs) protect coastal communities from flooding caused by heavy rainfall and runoff. If the SMPs are submerged under seawater during a tropical cyclone (TC) and its storm surge, their function will be compromised. Under climate change scenarios, this threat is [...] Read more.
Stormwater management ponds (SMPs) protect coastal communities from flooding caused by heavy rainfall and runoff. If the SMPs are submerged under seawater during a tropical cyclone (TC) and its storm surge, their function will be compromised. Under climate change scenarios, this threat is exacerbated by sea level rise (SLR) and more extreme tropical cyclones. This study quantifies the impact of tropical cyclones and their storm surge and inundation on South Carolina SMPs under various SLR scenarios. A coupled hydrodynamic model calculates storm surge heights and their return periods using historical tropical cyclones. The surge decay coefficient method is used to calculate inundation areas caused by different return period storm surges under various SLR scenarios. According to the findings, stormwater management ponds will be aggravated by sea level rise and extreme storm surge. In South Carolina, the number of SMPs at risk of being inundated by tides and storm surges increases almost linearly with SLR, by 10 SMPs for every inch of SLR for TC storm surges with all return periods. Long Bay, Charleston, and Beaufort were identified as high-risk coastal areas. The findings of this study indicate where current SMPs need to be redesigned and where more SMPs are required. The modeling and analysis system used in this study can be employed to evaluate the effects of SLR and other types of climate change on SMP facilities in other regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones Dynamics and Forecast System)
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