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Extreme Weather Events and Atmospheric Circulation

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A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (20 January 2023) | Viewed by 14801

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Prof. Dr. Arkadiusz Marek Tomczyk

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Guest Editor

Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Adam Mickiewicz University, 61-712 Poznań, Poland
Interests: heat waves; cold spells; growing season; atmospheric circulation
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The currently observed climate warming raises no doubts. It is manifested by the increasingly frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, including heat waves. Not only their frequency, but also their duration and intensity have increased over recent decades. A similar direction of changes is forecasted for the next decades of the 21st century. The aforementioned changes are simultaneously accompanied by a decrease in the frequency of negative extremes, including cold spells. The occurrence of extreme air temperature values should be considered in the context of circulation conditions because atmospheric circulation is recognized as one of the most important factors determining weather conditions at moderate latitudes. Their detailed investigation can be useful for the more accurate forecasting of the occurrence of such events.

Due to the serious threat to human health and life, as well as the great economic losses related to the occurrence of extreme weather events, the articles presented in this Issue could be useful for a broad and diverse group of recipients.

This Issue will prefer studies regarding the occurrence of extreme air-temperature values and their circulation conditions. Studies in the scope of forecasting of the occurrence of such events in the 21st century will also be welcome.

Prof. Dr. Arkadiusz Marek Tomczyk
Guest Editor

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Keywords

extreme weather
climate change
temperature extremes
heat/cold waves
atmospheric circulation

Published Papers (9 papers)

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Research

20 pages, 9745 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Two Case Studies of the Northwestern Argentinean Low: With and without a Coupled Transient Trough

by Josefina M. Arraut, Maurício R. Rocha, Enio P. Souza and Júlia Amanda Nanini

Atmosphere 2023, 14(5), 883; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050883 - 18 May 2023

Viewed by 870

Abstract

The Northwestern Argentinean Low (NAL) intensifies the zonal component of the geopotential gradient to its east, intensifying the meridional wind and moisture flow from the tropics to the subtropics contibuting importantly to the South American Low-Level Jet and the Chaco Jet. This study compares two situations where the NAL is present in the continent’s subtropics: one where it is coupled with an extratropical transient trough to its south and another without this coupling. The coupled case, called the front case, is stronger in two ways: it is warmer and shows lower geopotential at the center of the NAL. It also shows much stronger moisture transport. Both cases show a similar trait in that moisture transport and the zonal component of the geopotential gradient east of the NAL peak in the coolest hours. The geopotential at the center of the no-front case remains roughly constant throughout the event. For the front case, it attains its minimum value in the six hours preceding the northeastward advance of the transient trough. These results suggest that there are different mechanisms acting at the center of the NAL and at its eastern branch, as well as in the front and no-front cases. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Atmospheric Circulation)

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16 pages, 28270 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Key Factors of the Strong Cold Wave Event in the Winter of 2020/21 and Its Effects on the Predictability in CMA-GEPS

by Pengfei Ren, Li Gao, Jiawen Zheng and Hongke Cai

Atmosphere 2023, 14(3), 564; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030564 - 16 Mar 2023

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1700

Abstract

During the 2020/2021 winter season, three nationwide cold waves took place from 28 to 31 December 2020, as well as from 5 to 8 January and 14 to 17 January 2021. These cold waves resulted in extreme cold weather in northern and eastern China. In this study, the common features of these cold waves were analyzed, and the key factors contributing to cold waves were illustrated, and the performance of the CMA-GEPS numerical model was evaluated in predicting the cooling effect of the cold waves, and its predictability source was discussed. The results indicated that the cold waves were caused by synergistic effects in the mid- to high-latitude atmospheric circulation of both the upper and lower atmosphere, including polar vortex splitting, enhancement of blocking high, and increased meridional circulation anomaly in the Siberian high area. During the time of cold waves, the mid- to high-latitude atmospheric circulation was undergoing low-frequency adjustment, with the Arctic oscillation continuously weakening, while the blocking high and Siberian high gradually increased to historically high-intensity states. The outbreaks of the three cold waves occurred at the peak and declining points of the blocking high and Siberian high, respectively, acting as short- to medium-term forecast factors. The CMA-GEPS model demonstrated high forecasting ability for the cooling of the cold waves due to its ability to accurately predict the evolution of the Siberian high and blocking high prior to and after the cold wave with a long lead time. Predictability analysis suggested the strong variability of key factors (such as the Siberian high and blocking) in cold wave events may benefit the model’s prediction of cold wave events. These findings contribute to the understanding of the physical mechanisms behind cold waves and the potential for improved forecasting of extreme cold weather events. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Atmospheric Circulation)

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15 pages, 3195 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Variability in the Occurrence of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean and Its Climatic and Hydrological Determinants

by Adam Szczapiński, Ewa Bednorz and Bartosz Czernecki

Atmosphere 2023, 14(2), 312; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020312 - 4 Feb 2023

Viewed by 1352

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to investigate the variability in annual counts and the northern extent of cyclones in the North Atlantic in the years 1970–2019. Cyclones were divided into tropical cyclones (TCs), called hurricanes in the Atlantic, and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), transformed from TCs. Linear regression methods and Pearson’s correlation coefficient were applied. The trend in numbers is upward for both types of cyclones. The maximum annual northern extent of TCs shows a decreasing trend, while that of ETCs is clearly increasing. Hurricane numbers show a moderate positive correlation (correlation coefficient 0.31) with the annual Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and a negative correlation (−0.34) with the annual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. For the SOI in the months of the second half of the year, there is a strong correlation (up to 0.51) with the number of TCs in September–October. The highest correlation (0.65) is observed between the number of TCs and the annual Atlantic Multi-decadal Index (AMO). The number of TCs have been shown to correlate positively with the water temperature of the North Atlantic and western Pacific, and negatively with the eastern Pacific Ocean. A significant relationship has also been recorded between SST and the maximum annual extent of extratropical cyclones to the north and east (correlation coefficient of 0.4 to 0.6). Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Atmospheric Circulation)

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26 pages, 10351 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Variability in Future Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in the MPI-ESM1-2-HR Model in Iran

by Zahra Ghassabi, Ebrahim Fattahi and Maral Habibi

Atmosphere 2023, 14(2), 307; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020307 - 3 Feb 2023

Viewed by 1000

Abstract

Analyzing and classifying atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) is useful for studying climate variability. These classifications can effectively identify the links between large-scale and regional-local scale processes. This work uses the historical (1975–2014) and projected (2015–2054) simulations of the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model to reproduce the CPs over the Middle East and Iran. Eighteen CPs were identified based on the geopotential height (GPH) of 500 hPa data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The method of principal component analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering was used. Then, the possible variability of each pattern in the surface and mid-level of the atmosphere and their expected changes in the frequency of CPs in global warming scenarios were investigated. This research showed that CPs 3, 6, and 11 happen during warm months of the year. The surface thermal low pressure is associated with the subtropical high in the atmosphere mid-level. According to the intensity of the low and the northward development, or the orbital expansion of the subtropical high, this pattern has an increasing (CPs 3 and 6) or decreasing (CP11) trend in the future period. CPs 1 and 12 occur during cold months. In CP1, dynamic high pressure prevails over Iran. However, in CP12, Iran is affected by high pressure from southeastern Europe. They will decrease in future projections. CPs 7 and 16, which often occur in the transition season (spring), show an increase in the projected patterns. CP 18 occurs throughout the year, but its highest frequency is in autumn, and the frequency of occurrence decreases. An increase in 500 hPa geopotential height over the Arabian Sea in all 18 classes and all three SSPs is predicted for future periods. Analysis of the obtained weather types indicates the identification of all effective atmospheric circulation patterns in the study area so that the behavior and frequency of each pattern explain the prevailing atmospheric phenomena in this region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Atmospheric Circulation)

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20 pages, 3793 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Comparisons of the Synoptic Characteristics of 14-Day Extreme Precipitation Events in Different Regions of Eastern China

by Xinyu Sun and Yongdi Wang

Atmosphere 2022, 13(8), 1310; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13081310 - 17 Aug 2022

Viewed by 1233

Abstract

How to predict and study persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) with a prediction period of 1–2 weeks is an important scientific problem faced by the meteorological circles at home and abroad. Based on the accurate description of the flood range caused by 14-day PEPEs, the comprehensive analysis method was used to obtain the weather characteristics related to 14-day PEPEs (including abnormal trough/ridge, westerly jet, atmospheric river (AR) activity, teleconnections, etc.). First, we selected three regions in China, North China (NC), the Yangtze River valley (YRV), and South China (SC), analyzed their 14-day PEPEs in summer (June to August), and composited them into an average circulation (500 hPa geopotential height field) to compare the weather patterns related to PEPEs in these regions. Then, several variables are composited to understand the evolution of the atmospheric state before and during the occurrence of PEPEs. Finally, potential applications of several teleconnection types and composites in advance prediction are studied. The main findings include: the common weather signals during the occurrence of PEPEs are characterized by obvious and continuous a high-low-high saddle field circulation configuration (conducive to the formation of frequent heavy rainfall), active westerly jet (westerly jet is the controlling factor of precipitation), and enhanced water vapor transport (significantly increased atmospheric river activity). In this study, some key characteristics and development of PEPEs were identified, the formation mechanism of China’s 14-day PEPEs was revealed, the role of ARs in PEPEs was recognized, and the PEPEs precursor signal was extracted. Furthermore, PEPEs in different regions were also compared, which played an important role in understanding and predicting similar events. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Atmospheric Circulation)

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16 pages, 4199 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Identification and Risk Characteristics of Agricultural Drought Disaster Events Based on the Copula Function in Northeast China

by Shujie Zhang, Ping Wang, Dongni Wang, Yushu Zhang, Ruipeng Ji and Fu Cai

Atmosphere 2022, 13(8), 1234; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13081234 - 3 Aug 2022

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 1335

Abstract

Accurate feature identification of drought disaster events is required for proper risk management in agriculture. This study improved the crop water deficit index (CWDI) by including the daily meteorological, crop development stage, soil moisture content, and yield data for 1981–2020 in northeastern China. Two drought characteristic variables (drought duration and intensity) were extracted using the theory of runs to produce the improved crop water deficit index (CWDIwp). Thresholds for the bivariate indicators were also determined for agricultural drought events of varying severity. A joint distribution model for drought variables was constructed based on five types of Archimedean copulas. The joint probability and the joint recurrence period for agricultural drought events were analyzed for drought events with varying intensities in northeast China. The results suggest that the CWDIwp can reliably identify the onset, duration, and intensity of drought events over the study area and can be used to monitor agricultural drought events. The conditional probability of drought intensity (duration) decreased as the drought duration (intensity) threshold increased, whereas the drought recurrence period increased as the threshold for drought duration and intensity rose. In the period (1981–2020), drought intensity in the three Northeastern provinces showed an increasing trend in the order Jilin Province > Liaoning Province > Heilongjiang Province. The spatial distribution of the joint probability and the joint recurrence period was obvious, and the joint probability showed a decreasing distribution trend from west to east. The distribution trend for the joint probability was opposite to that of the joint recurrence period. Furthermore, the areas with high drought probability values corresponded to the areas with low values for the recurrence period, indicating that the drought occurrence probability was higher, and the recurrence period value was lower in the drought-prone areas. The high-risk drought areas (60–87%) were in western Liaoning and western Jilin, with a recurrence period of 1–3 years, whereas the low-risk areas (<40%) were located in the mountainous areas of eastern Liaoning and eastern Jilin. The joint probability and joint recurrence period for agricultural drought events of varying severity were quite different, with the probability following the order light drought > moderate drought > severe drought > extreme drought. The order for the recurrence period was light drought < moderate drought < severe drought < extreme drought. The results provide technical support for disaster prevention and mitigation in drought risk management. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Atmospheric Circulation)

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12 pages, 4764 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Intraseasonal Oscillation of Summer Extreme High Temperature in Northeast China and Associated Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

by Yue Tang, Gang Zeng, Xiaoye Yang, Vedaste Iyakaremye and Zhongxian Li

Atmosphere 2022, 13(3), 387; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030387 - 25 Feb 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1893

Abstract

Previous studies have demonstrated the important effects of intraseasonal oscillations in the tropics on the occurrence of extreme-high-temperature events (EHTs), whereas the influence of intraseasonal oscillations in mid-high latitudes on EHTs has been less discussed. In this study, the intraseasonal oscillation of summer extreme high temperatures from 1981 to 2019 in northeast China and its associated atmospheric circulation were studied using conventional statistic methods. The results show that the summer extreme-high-temperature distribution in northeast China is consistent throughout the whole region, with a low-frequency oscillation period of 10–30 d. The low-frequency extreme-high-temperature events (LFEHTs) in northeast China account for 88.8% of all EHTs during the summer. The corresponding low-frequency circulation anomalies with 10–30 d oscillations exhibit a barotropic wave-train moving from west to east in the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. A low-frequency wave-train index (LFWI) was defined to characterize the wave-train anomaly system in the mid-high latitudes of the Eurasian continent. The LFWI may be a potential precursor for forecasting LFEHTs about 7 days in advance. It could explain 15–30% of the summertime low-frequency daily maximum temperature variability in northeast China. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Atmospheric Circulation)

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17 pages, 7030 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Daily Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Their Influence on Dry/Wet Events in Iran

by Zahra Ghassabi, Ebrahim Fattahi and Maral Habibi

Atmosphere 2022, 13(1), 81; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010081 - 5 Jan 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2115

Abstract

Analyzing atmospheric circulation patterns characterize prevailing weather in a region. The method of principal component analysis and clustering was used to classify daily atmospheric circulation patterns. The average daily geopotential height of 500 hPa with 0.5° resolution of the ECMWF (1990–2019) were extracted from the Middle East. The S array was used to identify air types, and k-means clustering was used to classify daily air types. All days were divided into eighteen groups. Then, the surface maps and moisture flux divergence at the 850-hPa level of each pattern were studied. The, the connection between circulation patterns and precipitation occurrence is investigated by the PI index. The existence of a variety of precipitation and temperature regimes and consequent dry/wet periods is related to the type and frequency of the circulation patterns. In patterns with south to southwesterly currents, the low-pressure surface center extends from the south of the Red Sea to southern Turkey and is associated with the mid-level trough, where the moisture fluxes converge in the south of the Red Sea, southwest/south of Iran, and east of the Mediterranean Sea. Therefore, according to the intensity of the patterns, the most precipitation falls in the country’s western half, and the Zagros Mountain’s wind side. With the eastward movement of the Cyclonic patterns, the rainfall area extends to the eastern half of the country. With the pattern that the thermal low surface pressure extends to 35 °N latitude and is associated with the mid-level subtropical high, almost no rain occurs in the country. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Atmospheric Circulation)

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16 pages, 3125 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Extreme Temperature Events in Serbia in Relation to Atmospheric Circulation

by Ivana Tošić, Suzana Putniković, Milica Tošić and Irida Lazić

Atmosphere 2021, 12(12), 1584; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121584 - 29 Nov 2021

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 1979

Abstract

In this study, extremely warm and cold temperature events were examined based on daily maximum (Tx) and minimum (Tn) temperatures observed at 11 stations in Serbia during the period 1949–2018. Summer days (SU), warm days (Tx90), and heat waves (HWs) were calculated based on daily maximum temperatures, while frost days (FD) and cold nights (Tn10) were derived from daily minimum temperatures. Absolute maximum and minimum temperatures in Serbia rose but were statistically significant only for Tx in winter. Positive trends of summer and warm days, and negative trends of frost days and cold nights were found. A high number of warm events (SU, Tx90, and HWs) were recorded over the last 20 years. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were applied to find the relationship between extreme temperature events and atmospheric circulation. Typical atmospheric circulation patterns, previously determined for Serbia, were used as predictor variables. It was found that MLR models gave the best results for Tx90, FD, and Tn10 in winter. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Atmospheric Circulation)

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