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Atmosphere
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Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Semi-Arid Regions
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Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Semi-Arid Regions

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Biometeorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 April 2021) | Viewed by 14371

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Patrick Laux

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany
Interests: dynamical and statistical downscaling; bias correction; seasonal climate predictions; agricultural and hydrological impact assessment
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Seyni Salack

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
WASCAL Competence Center, 06 BP 9507 Ouagadougou 06, Burkina Faso, Africa
Interests: climatic impacts assessment; climate services; adaptation strategies for the agriculture and farming systems of the Sahel

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Since agriculture is one of the most sensitive economic sectors to climate change, it is crucial to make reliable estimates for the production of food, energy, and fiber. Semi-arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability, since the production is limited to the availability of water resources, and mostly rainfed. In addition to that, there is still a lack of consensus about the role of different direct (e.g., the CO2 fertilization effect) and indirect effects (pests and diseases, the effects of hypoxia and anoxia, etc.) in agricultural models, which hinders a reliable quantification of the overall net impact.

Besides knowledge of expected long-term climate change, it is of utmost importance to know about the potential evolution of the weather for the forthcoming season. Farmers may counteract droughts by adapted management options such as planting drought-tolerant crops, adapting planting dates, etc.

Regional focus is put on seasonally arid regions, where temperatures are often already close to the physiological maxima for crops, and where further increases may become detrimental for crops by increasing evapotranspiration and heat stress. In such regions (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa), maintaining or increasing the level of food security poses one of the most important societal challenges for the forthcoming decades. Therefore, the goal of this Special Issue is to collect agricultural climate impact studies in semi-arid regions in order to contribute to the development of better management adaptation strategies for the future.

This Special Issue seeks contributions on the following themes:

  • Agricultural model simulations for different semi-arid regions worldwide, either driven by long-term climate projections or by seasonal climate forecasts;
  • Quantification of uncertainties, impact and risk assessments of all kinds of direct and indirect climate (change) effects;
  • Performance of ensemble crop predictions, driven by seasonal climate information;
  • Optimization of agricultural management options in climate change projections and seasonal climate predictions;
  • Actual/potential effects of compound and extreme climate events on crop production and agricultural systems under climate warming of the past and future.

Dr. Patrick Laux
Dr. Seyni Salack
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • climate change and variability
  • agricultural production
  • farming systems
  • management options
  • crop–climate simulations
  • seasonal predictions
  • extreme climate events
  • impact and risk assessments
  • semi-arid regions

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

14 pages, 299 KiB  
Article
Accelerating Seed Germination and Juvenile Growth of Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) to Manage Climate Variability through Hydro-Priming
by Siaka Dembélé, Robert B. Zougmoré, Adama Coulibaly, John P. A. Lamers and Jonathan P. Tetteh
Atmosphere 2021, 12(4), 419; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12040419 - 24 Mar 2021
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2598
Abstract
Agriculture in Mali, a country in Sahelian West Africa, strongly depends on rainfall and concurrently has a low adaptive capacity, making it consequently one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change worldwide. Since early-season drought limits crop germination, and hence growth, ultimately [...] Read more.
Agriculture in Mali, a country in Sahelian West Africa, strongly depends on rainfall and concurrently has a low adaptive capacity, making it consequently one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change worldwide. Since early-season drought limits crop germination, and hence growth, ultimately yield during rain-fed depending on production is commonly experienced nowadays in Mali. Germination and establishment of key crops such as the staple sorghum could be improved by seed priming. The effects of hydro-priming with different water sources (e.g., distilled, tap, rain, river, well water) were evaluated respectively for three priming time durations in tepid e.g., at 25 °C (4, 8, and 12 h) and by hot water at 70 °C (in contrast to 10, 20, and 30 min.) in 2014 and 2015. Seed germination and seedling development of nine sorghum genotypes were monitored. Compared to non-primed seed treatments, hydro-priming significantly [p = 0.01] improved final germination percentage, germination rate index, total seedling length, root length, root vigor index, shoot length, and seedling dry weight. The priming with water from wells and rivers resulted in significant higher seed germination (85%) and seedling development, compared to the three other sources of water. Seed germination rate, uniformity, and speed were enhanced by hydro-priming also. It is argued that hydro-priming is a safe and simple method that effectively improve seed germination and seedling development of sorghum. If used in crop fields, the above most promising genotypes may contribute to managing early season drought and avoid failure of seed germination and crop failure in high climate variability contexts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Semi-Arid Regions)
31 pages, 1501 KiB  
Article
Effects of Recent Climate Change on Maize Yield in Southwest Ecuador
by Gina Lopez, Thomas Gaiser, Frank Ewert and Amit Srivastava
Atmosphere 2021, 12(3), 299; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030299 - 25 Feb 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2190
Abstract
In recent years, evidence of recent climate change has been identified in South America, affecting agricultural production negatively. In response to this, our study employs a crop modelling approach to estimate the effects of recent climate change on maize yield in four provinces [...] Read more.
In recent years, evidence of recent climate change has been identified in South America, affecting agricultural production negatively. In response to this, our study employs a crop modelling approach to estimate the effects of recent climate change on maize yield in four provinces of Ecuador. One of them belongs to a semi-arid area. The trend analysis of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and solar radiation was done for 36 years (from 1984 to 2019) using the Mann–Kendall test. Furthermore, we simulated (using the LINTUL5 model) the counterfactual maize yield under current crop management in the same time-span. During the crop growing period, results show an increasing trend in the temperature in all the four studied provinces. Los Rios and Manabi showed a decreasing trend in radiation, whereas the semi-arid Loja depicted a decreasing precipitation trend. Regarding the effects of climate change on maize yield, the semi-arid province Loja showed a more significant negative impact, followed by Manabi. The yield losses were roughly 40 kg ha−1 and 10 kg ha−1 per year, respectively, when 250 kg N ha−1 is applied. The simulation results showed no effect in Guayas and Los Rios. The length of the crop growing period was significantly different in the period before and after 2002 in all provinces. In conclusion, the recent climate change impact on maize yield differs spatially and is more significant in the semi-arid regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Semi-Arid Regions)
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19 pages, 4658 KiB  
Article
Changes in Climate Extremes in Central Asia under 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming and their Impacts on Agricultural Productions
by Yang Liu, Xiu Geng, Zhixin Hao and Jingyun Zheng
Atmosphere 2020, 11(10), 1076; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11101076 - 9 Oct 2020
Cited by 23 | Viewed by 4731
Abstract
Changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming may impact agricultural production across Central Asia. We used the simulated daily data of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and [...] Read more.
Changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming may impact agricultural production across Central Asia. We used the simulated daily data of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and analyzed the current climate status and future projected changes of a set of climate extreme indices related to agricultural production under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming. In addition, the possible impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Central Asia were discussed. The results show that the annual mean temperature in Central Asia will increase by 1.48 °C and 2.34 °C at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels, respectively, compared to the base period (1986–2005), and the increasing trends are significant at the α = 0.01 level for all grids. The number of warm days and growing season length will increase. Under the 1.5 °C scenario, the mean annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation (R95P) will experience increases of 7.68% and 26.55%, respectively, and the consecutive dry days (CDD) will be reduced by 1.1 days. However, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) shows significant drought conditions in most of Central Asia (more than 60%). Under the 2 °C scenario, there will be a 3.89% increase in PRCPTOT and a 24.78% increase in R95P. Nevertheless, accompanying the increase in CDD (0.8 day) and the decrease in SPEI, drought conditions will be further exacerbated. These results indicate that Central Asia is likely to face more severe ecological problems in the future, which will threaten the regional agricultural production and the food security. Therefore, adaptation strategies should be implemented immediately to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on Central Asia’s agriculture. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Semi-Arid Regions)
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20 pages, 12166 KiB  
Article
Effects of Elevated Air Temperature and CO2 on Maize Production and Water Use Efficiency under Future Climate Change Scenarios in Shaanxi Province, China
by Qaisar Saddique, Muhammad Imran Khan, Muhammad Habib ur Rahman, Xu Jiatun, Muhammad Waseem, Thomas Gaiser, Muhammad Mohsin Waqas, Ijaz Ahmad, Li Chong and Huanjie Cai
Atmosphere 2020, 11(8), 843; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080843 - 9 Aug 2020
Cited by 25 | Viewed by 3907
Abstract
The ongoing global warming and changing patterns of precipitation have significant implications for crop yields. Process-based models are the most commonly used method to assess the impacts of projected climate changes on crop yields. In this study, the crop-environment resource synthesis (CERES)-Maize 4.6.7 [...] Read more.
The ongoing global warming and changing patterns of precipitation have significant implications for crop yields. Process-based models are the most commonly used method to assess the impacts of projected climate changes on crop yields. In this study, the crop-environment resource synthesis (CERES)-Maize 4.6.7 model was used to project the maize crop yield in the Shaanxi Province of China over future periods. In this context, the downscaled ensemble projections of 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) were used as input for the calibrated CERES-Maize model. Results showed a negative correlation between temperature and maize yield in the study area. It is expected that each 1.0 °C rise in seasonal temperature will cause up to a 9% decrease in the yield. However, the influence of CO2 fertilization showed a positive response, as witnessed by the increase in the crop yield. With CO2 fertilization, the average increase in the maize crop yield compared to without CO2 fertilization per three decades was 10.5%, 11.6%, TA7.8%, and 6.5% under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. An elevated CO2 concentration showed a pronounced positive impact on the rain-fed maize yield compared to the irrigated maize yield. The average water use efficiency (WUE) was better at elevated CO2 concentrations and improved by 7–21% relative to the without CO2 fertilization of the WUE. Therefore, future climate changes with elevated CO2 are expected to be favorable for maize yields in the Shaanxi Province of China, and farmers can expect further benefits in the future from growing maize. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Semi-Arid Regions)
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