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Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction (2nd Edition)
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Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction (2nd Edition)

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 May 2025 | Viewed by 3905

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Shumin Chen

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Guest Editor
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, China
Interests: tropical cyclone; heat flux; forecasting; atmospheric modelling
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Prof. Dr. Weibiao Li

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Guest Editor
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
Interests: tropical meteorology; air–sea interaction; weather and climate extremes; mesoscale vortex
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Yilun Chen

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Guest Editor
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
Interests: tropical cyclones; remote sensing; cloud microphysics; atmospheric physics; precipitation vertical structure
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Aoqi Zhang

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Guest Editor
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
Interests: precipitation; atmospheric radiation; cloud; life cycle
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Mingsen Zhou

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Guest Editor
Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Guangzhou 510000, China
Interests: precipitation; tropical cyclone; sea fog; atmospheric modelling
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Tropical cyclones (TCs), which develop over warm tropical oceans, are among the most destructive natural phenomena. The associated strong winds and heavy precipitation concentrated around the TC center can cause serious casualties and significant economic losses in coastal areas, especially where such systems make landfall. Therefore, TC forecasting has been an area of active scientific research for decades. However, their prediction remains difficult in the fields of research and operational forecasting because their mechanism is not fully understood. One of the reasons is that high-quality observation data have not been fully analyzed. In particular, in air–sea fluxes, severe convection around the eyewall plays an important role in TC intensification, which should be attributed to TC dynamics. Therefore, observational and numerical research on TC dynamics is crucial for TC forecasting.

For this Special Issue, we invite original and review articles to advance our understanding of TC observation and prediction; topics of interest for this Special Issue include, but are not limited to, the following: (1) new developments in observation and modeling; (2) new developments in theory and forecasting; (3) air–sea interactions and cloud microphysics in TCs; (4) variation in TC tracking; (5) tropical cyclogenesis; (6) life cycle of TCs; (7) substructure and asymmetry of the eyewall; and (8) rainbands and eyewall preplacement.

Dr. Shumin Chen
Prof. Dr. Weibiao Li
Dr. Yilun Chen
Dr. Aoqi Zhang
Dr. Mingsen Zhou
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • tropical cyclones
  • precipitation
  • atmospheric modeling
  • atmospheric physics
  • atmospheric radiation
  • clouds
  • sea fog

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Related Special Issue

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

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12 pages, 6125 KiB  
Article
Real-Time Operational Trial of Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Model for Selected Tropical Cyclones in 2024
by Sin Ki Lai, Pak Wai Chan, Yuheng He, Shuyi S. Chen, Brandon W. Kerns, Hui Su and Huisi Mo
Atmosphere 2024, 15(12), 1509; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121509 - 17 Dec 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 791
Abstract
An atmosphere–ocean–wave coupled regional model, the UWIN-CM, began its operational trial in real time at the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) in the second half of 2024. Its performance in the analysis of three selected tropical cyclones, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon, Super Typhoon Gaemi, [...] Read more.
An atmosphere–ocean–wave coupled regional model, the UWIN-CM, began its operational trial in real time at the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) in the second half of 2024. Its performance in the analysis of three selected tropical cyclones, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon, Super Typhoon Gaemi, and Super Typhoon Yagi, are studied in this paper. The forecast track and intensity of the tropical cyclones were verified against the operational analysis. It is shown that the track error of the UWIN-CM was lower than other regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in operation at the HKO, with a reduction in mean direct positional error of up to 50% for the first 48 forecast hours. For cyclone intensity, the performance of the UWIN-CM was the best out of the available global and regional models at HKO for Yagi at forecast hours T + 36 to T + 84 h. The model captured the rapid intensification of Yagi over the SCS with a lead time of 24 h or more. The forecast winds were compared with the in situ measurements of buoy and with the wind field analysis obtained from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR). The correlation of forecast winds with measurements from buoy and SAR ranged between 65–95% and 50–70%, respectively. The model was found to perform generally satisfactorily in the above comparisons. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction (2nd Edition))
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21 pages, 12433 KiB  
Article
Effects of the Species Number of Hydrometeors on the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Mujigae (2015)
by Simin Pang, Jiangnan Li, Tianyun Guo and Jianfei Chen
Atmosphere 2024, 15(12), 1442; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121442 - 30 Nov 2024
Viewed by 692
Abstract
Super Typhoon Mujigae (2015) was simulated using the WRF-ARW model version 4.1 with the WSM3, WSM5, WSM6, and WSM7 microphysics schemes, which include 3, 5, 6, and 7 hydrometeor classes, respectively. This study investigated the species number of hydrometeors (SNHs) from simple to [...] Read more.
Super Typhoon Mujigae (2015) was simulated using the WRF-ARW model version 4.1 with the WSM3, WSM5, WSM6, and WSM7 microphysics schemes, which include 3, 5, 6, and 7 hydrometeor classes, respectively. This study investigated the species number of hydrometeors (SNHs) from simple to complex on the rapid intensification (RI) of a tropical cyclone (TC). SNHs significantly affected the distribution of hydrometeors, microphysical conversion processes (MCPs), latent heat budget, and the interaction between thermal and dynamic processes, thereby influencing the RI. Different SNHs resulted in varied MCPs and a latent heat budget. The WSM3 and WSM5 schemes share the same top three dominating MCPs: condensation of cloud water (COND), accretion of cloud water by rain (RACW), and evaporation of rain (REVP). COND, accretion of cloud water by graupel (GACR), and RACW contributed to the WSM6 scheme. The WSM7 scheme included hail, with contributions from the instantaneous melting of snow, graupel, and COND, respectively. The dominating latent cooling processes were identical, while in different orders, which were evaporation of rain (REVP), sublimation of snow (SSUB), and evaporation of cloud water (CEVP) in the WSM3 and WSM5 schemes; while CEVP, REVP, and SSUB were in the WSM6 and WSM7. The interaction between thermal and dynamic processes was ultimately responsible for the RI. The WSM6 scheme presented an excellent latent heating rate, warm-core structure, and secondary circulation, which enhanced convection and absolute angular momentum transportation, and further indicating RI. The results highlighted the importance of an adequate complexity microphysics scheme to better reproduce the RI. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction (2nd Edition))
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18 pages, 13617 KiB  
Article
Observation and Numerical Simulation of Cross-Mountain Airflow at the Hong Kong International Airport from Range Height Indicator Scans of Radar and LIDAR
by Ying Wa Chan, Kai Wai Lo, Ping Cheung, Pak Wai Chan and Kai Kwong Lai
Atmosphere 2024, 15(11), 1391; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15111391 - 19 Nov 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 794
Abstract
Apart from headwind changes, crosswind changes may be hazardous to aircraft operation. This paper presents two cases of recently observed crosswind changes from the range height indicator scans of ground-based remote sensing meteorological equipment, namely an X-band microwave radar and a short-range LIDAR. [...] Read more.
Apart from headwind changes, crosswind changes may be hazardous to aircraft operation. This paper presents two cases of recently observed crosswind changes from the range height indicator scans of ground-based remote sensing meteorological equipment, namely an X-band microwave radar and a short-range LIDAR. Both instruments have a range resolution down to around 30 m, allowing the study of fine-scale details of the vertical profiles of cross-mountain airflow at the Hong Kong International Airport. Rapidly evolving winds have been observed by the equipment in tropical cyclone situations, revealing high levels of turbulence and vertically propagating waves. The eddy dissipation rate derived from radar spectrum width indicated severe turbulence, with values exceeding 0.5 m2/3 s−1. In order to study the feasibility of predicting such disturbed airflow, a mesoscale meteorological model and a computational fluid dynamics model with high spatial resolution are used in this paper. It is found that the mesoscale meteorological model alone is sufficient to capture some rapidly evolving airflow features, including the turbulence level, the waves, and the rapidly changing wind speeds. However, the presence of reverse flow could only be reproduced with the use of a building-resolving computational fluid dynamics model. This paper aims at providing a reference for airports to consider the feasibility of performing high-resolution numerical simulations of rapidly evolving airflow to alert the pilots in advance for airports in complex terrains and the setup of buildings. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction (2nd Edition))
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Review

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16 pages, 2127 KiB  
Review
A Review of Typhoon Inner Core Characteristics and Their Relationship with Intensity Changes
by Shumin Chen and Weibiao Li
Atmosphere 2024, 15(12), 1522; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121522 - 20 Dec 2024
Viewed by 1032
Abstract
The inner core of a typhoon plays a crucial role in storm intensification and is especially critical for rapid increases in storm intensity. Most of the energy exchange occurs in the inner core, including the eyewall. Moist air rising from the warm ocean [...] Read more.
The inner core of a typhoon plays a crucial role in storm intensification and is especially critical for rapid increases in storm intensity. Most of the energy exchange occurs in the inner core, including the eyewall. Moist air rising from the warm ocean releases latent heat, increasing wind speeds and sustaining the warm-core structure through secondary circulations. A deeper understanding of the physical processes in the inner core is essential for improving intensity forecasts and disaster preparedness and mitigation. This paper reviews key studies on the inner core. We focus on lead–lag relationships, eyewall replacement cycles, and waves and oscillations, which are topics that can greatly enhance forecasting capabilities. We highlight limitations of current research and propose key scientific questions that would provide essential insights to improve forecasts and support disaster reduction strategies. These include: (1) what are the physical processes that drive the lead–lag relationship between eyewall convection and intensity changes, and how does the time lag vary across typhoons? (2) What conditions favor merging of the inner and outer eyewalls and completion of the eyewall replacement cycle, potentially leading to rapid intensification before landfall? (3) How do waves and oscillations in the eyewall influence typhoon intensity variations? Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Prediction (2nd Edition))
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