Global Space Weather Variability with a Specific Focus on Ionospheric Climatological Forecasting and Predictive Modelling

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Upper Atmosphere".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 20 February 2026 | Viewed by 1068

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Frederick Research Center, Nicosia 1036, Cyprus
Interests: equatorial ionosphere; midlatitude ionosphere; ionospheric irregularities; plasma bubbles; GNSS TEC and scintillation monitoring; spread F; MSTIDs; LSTIDs; gravity waves; coupling between equatorial and midlatitude ionosphere; global ionospheric climatological dynamics and forecasting; COSMIC and SWARM ionospheric profiling

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Guest Editor
1. Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of West Attica, Ancient Olive Grove Campus, GR-12241 Aigaleo, Greece
2. Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National Observatory of Athens, Metaxa and Vasileos Pavlou, GR-15236 Penteli, Greece
Interests: digital signal processing; complex systems time series analysis; nonlinear dynamics; criticality; precursors of extreme events; seismo-electromagnetics; lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC)
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

We are excited to invite you to submit your manuscript to our Special Issue in the open access journal Atmosphere, titled “Global Space Weather Variability with a Specific Focus on Ionospheric Climatological Forecasting and Predictive Modelling”. This Special Issue aims to highlight recent advancements in the study of global ionospheric variability, particularly regarding geophysical parameters and space weather, with a specific focus on ionospheric climatological forecasting and predictive modelling.

The ionosphere, a dynamic region of Earth's upper atmosphere, exhibits significant variability driven by solar radiation, geomagnetic activity, and atmospheric dynamics. This variability can be categorized into climatological patterns, which follow predictable long-term trends, and more rapid, unpredictable disturbances caused by space weather events. Space weather, influenced primarily by solar activity such as solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and high-speed solar wind streams, can trigger geomagnetic variabilities that lead to substantial ionospheric disturbances, including irregularities in electron density, travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), and disruptions to communication and navigation systems. Ionospheric climatological forecasting focuses on understanding and predicting long-term trends based on factors such as the solar cycle, seasonal variations, and diurnal changes. Observations from multi-instrument networks have been crucial in characterizing the ionosphere at various altitudes and across both regional and global scales. The integration of data from ground-based and space-based platforms has facilitated the investigation of ionospheric dynamics over extensive spatial ranges, from low to high latitudes and across different longitudinal sectors, under both quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Predictive models, including empirical models (e.g., IRI (International Reference Ionosphere), NeQuick-G, etc.), physics-based models (e.g., TIE-GCM), and data-assimilative models, combine theoretical understanding with observational data to provide reliable estimates of ionospheric conditions. These models are crucial for identifying baseline climatological behaviour and distinguishing it from space weather-related anomalies. Predictive modelling for space weather-induced ionospheric variability leverages real-time data sources, including GNSS-based total electron content (TEC), ionosonde measurements, and satellite observations, to capture rapid changes during adverse geomagnetic conditions. Advanced tools such as machine learning algorithms and ensemble modelling are increasingly employed to improve forecasts of ionospheric responses to space weather events. For instance, models can predict ionospheric disturbances like TIDs, TEC enhancements, ionospheric scintillations, and shifts in the midlatitude ionospheric trough, which impact critical technologies like satellite-based communication and GNSS navigations.

We welcome contributions that explore ionospheric variability across wide spatial and temporal scales, influenced by different geophysical aspects and varying geomagnetic conditions, with a particular emphasis on ionospheric climatological forecasting and predictive models. Understanding ionospheric characteristics is vital for climatology and forecasting, aiding in the mitigation of challenges faced by modern technologies reliant on radio communication and navigation systems.

Regards, 

Dr. Krishnendu Sekhar Paul
Prof. Dr. Stelios M. Potirakis
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • global ionospheric dynamics
  • global ionospheric irregularity distribution
  • detection and characterization of ionospheric irregularities via multi-instrument methods
  • ionospheric variability during quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions
  • climatological forecasting of ionosphere
  • ionospheric irregularity prediction models

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

19 pages, 4001 KiB  
Article
Simulating Lightning Discharges: The Influence of Environmental Conditions on Ionization and Spark Behavior
by Gabriel Steinberg and Naomi Watanabe
Atmosphere 2025, 16(7), 831; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16070831 - 9 Jul 2025
Viewed by 382
Abstract
This study investigates the behavior of spark discharges under various environmental conditions to simulate aspects of early-stage lightning dynamics, with a focus on their spectral characteristics, propagation, and ionization behavior. In a laboratory setting, spark discharges generated by a Tesla coil operating with [...] Read more.
This study investigates the behavior of spark discharges under various environmental conditions to simulate aspects of early-stage lightning dynamics, with a focus on their spectral characteristics, propagation, and ionization behavior. In a laboratory setting, spark discharges generated by a Tesla coil operating with high-frequency alternating current (AC) were analyzed under varying air humidity and water surface conductivity. Spectral analysis revealed that the discharges are dominated by the second positive system of molecular nitrogen N2 (2P) and also exhibit the first negative system of molecular nitrogen ions N2+ (1N). Notably, the N2 (2P) emissions show strong peaks in the 350–450 nm range, closely matching spectral features typically associated with corona and streamer discharges in natural lightning. Environmental factors significantly influenced discharge morphology: in dry air, sparks exhibited longer and more branched paths, while in moist air, the discharges were shorter and more confined. Over water surfaces, the sparks spread radially, forming star-shaped patterns. Deionized (DI) water, with low conductivity, supported wider lateral propagation, whereas higher conductivity in tap water and saltwater suppressed discharge spread. The gap between the electrode tip and the surface also affected discharge extent and brightness. These findings demonstrate that Tesla coil discharges reproduce key features of early lightning processes and offer insights into how environmental factors influence discharge development. Full article
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22 pages, 21792 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of Automated Spread–F (SF) Detection over the Midlatitude Ionosphere
by Krishnendu Sekhar Paul, Trisani Biswas and Haris Haralambous
Atmosphere 2025, 16(6), 642; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16060642 - 25 May 2025
Viewed by 418
Abstract
The present study evaluates an automated Spread–F (SFP) detection algorithm by integrating SF-related (QF, FF) and ionospheric parameters (hmF2, h’F), acting as an indicator for SF events, from SAO Explorer auto-scaled (ARTIST) data, compared to manually identified SF events ( [...] Read more.
The present study evaluates an automated Spread–F (SFP) detection algorithm by integrating SF-related (QF, FF) and ionospheric parameters (hmF2, h’F), acting as an indicator for SF events, from SAO Explorer auto-scaled (ARTIST) data, compared to manually identified SF events (SFM) across nine European midlatitude ionospheric stations. The stations were categorized into four latitude sectors to evaluate latitudinal influence in an analysis within the period 2009–2021 from low to high solar activity levels. The results revealed an inverse correlation between solar activity and agreement between SFP and SFM, with stronger agreement during the solar minimum. In the 55°–60° N sector, the SFPSFM match varied from 71% during the solar minimum to 47% during the solar maximum, with overestimation associated with LSTID activity. In the 50°–55° N sector, agreement ranged from 66% to 56%, with overestimation associated with MSTIDs and oblique traces. The 40°–45° N sector exhibited the highest variability (89% to 42%), where Satellite Traces (STs), Multiple Reflected Echoes (MREs), and spread Es led to both over– and underestimations. In the 35°–40° N sector, agreement dropped to 30% during the solar maximum, with wintertime overestimation and summer underestimation significantly characterized by STs, MREs, and Es–layer interference. Full article
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