Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems (2nd Edition)
A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".
Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 November 2025 | Viewed by 871
Special Issue Editor
Interests: NWP models; EPS; evaluation of NWPs and EPSs; aviation meteorology; effects of weather on aviation with emphasis on convective systems, icing, turbulence, dust transfer; study of convective systems with the use of NWPs, radar and satellite data; atmospheric boundary-layer meteorology
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Special Issue Information
Dear Colleagues,
This Special Issue is the second volume in a series of publications dedicated to “Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems” (https://www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere/special_issues/54WIE005M5).
Short- to medium-range weather forecasting is based both on high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models that are able to accurately represent certain atmospheric processes, presenting the deterministic approach, and on the probabilistic Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) that provide information on the level of uncertainty in forecasts whose spread is obtained by perturbing both the initial conditions and also aspects of the physical processes within the model. Both require extensive research on the representation of physical processes, numerical methods, and data assimilation methodologies, while objective evaluation systems are necessary to assess their performance.
The aim of this Special Issue is to communicate advances in NWP models and EPS as state-of-the-art weather prediction tools that rely on the development of a seamless earth system modeling framework and that make the best use of the model outputs in an objective way for both research and operational applications, such as in aviation, shipping, emergency warning systems, and renewable energy. Hence, this Special Issue intends to collect contributions on new developments in data assimilation systems and the integration of observing systems to support NWP models, improvements in model physics and parameterizations of subgrid-scale processes, and the adoption of innovative computational grids and numerical methods leading to forecast skill enhancement, as well as statistical approaches to evaluate their impact. In the case of EPS applications, the focus is on perturbation methods of near-convection-permitting systems for developing members with a certain spread of different solutions, the range of which enables the assessment of the uncertainty in the probabilistic forecast and the confidence in the deterministic predictions. The study of high-impact weather events, their evolution, and the analysis of dynamical and physical characteristics through NWP applications is also encouraged.
Dr. Petroula Louka
Guest Editor
Manuscript Submission Information
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Keywords
- model physics
- model parameterizations
- subgrid-scale processes
- perturbation methods
- eps spread
- data assimilation systems
- model evaluation
- high-impact weather events
- NWP and EPS applications
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