Extreme Hydrometeorological Forecasting

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 August 2024 | Viewed by 2458

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Instituto de Recursos Naturais, Universidade Federal de Itajubá, Itajubá 37500-903, Brazil
Interests: Future climate trends synoptic meteorology; climate modeling; extreme events; climate
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Guest Editor
Instituto de Recursos Naturais, Universidade Federal de Itajubá, Itajubá 37500-903, Brazil
Interests: atmospheric modelling; extreme events; air quality

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Guest Editor
Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil
Interests: climate variability; precipitation; moisture transport; extreme events; numerical
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Extreme hydrometeorological events include a variety of phenomena such as local thunderstorms, hurricanes, and droughts, among others that cause severe weather/climate conditions and impact the hydrological system and, consequently, communities. In this way, extreme hydrometeorological forecasting plays a vital role in mitigating the impacts of severe weather events. Improvements in numerical modeling can provide accurate and timely information to help communities prepare and respond to extreme weather conditions. In this Special Issue, we attempt to publish studies focusing on the atmospheric conditions that conduce the extreme hydrometeorological events, being observational and/or modeling studies, climate analysis focusing on compound events, convection-permitting simulations, streamflow simulations, and remote sensing to assess the state of water resources and prediction techniques for flood or drought situations. The keywords below indicate the wide spectrum of topics that can be addressed in this issue.

Dr. Michelle Simões Reboita
Dr. Vanessa Silveira Barreto Carvalho
Dr. Anita Drumond
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • bias correction techniques
  • convection-permitting simulations
  • hydrological simulations
  • floods
  • droughts
  • streamflow
  • compound events
  • cyclones
  • monsoon rainfall
  • atmospheric heat waves
  • marine heat waves
  • precipitation diurnal cycle
  • synoptic forecast
  • seasonal forecast
  • climate change

Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

23 pages, 19395 KiB  
Article
How Well Does Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Simulate Storm Rashmi (2008) Itself and Its Associated Extreme Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau at the Same Time?
by Pengchao An, Ying Li, Wei Ye and Xiaoting Fan
Atmosphere 2023, 14(10), 1479; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14101479 - 24 Sep 2023
Viewed by 955
Abstract
Northward tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal (BoB TCs) often interact with atmospheric circulation, transporting large amounts of water vapor to the Tibetan Plateau (TP), causing extreme precipitation. The BoB surrounded by land on three sides and the complex topography of the [...] Read more.
Northward tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal (BoB TCs) often interact with atmospheric circulation, transporting large amounts of water vapor to the Tibetan Plateau (TP), causing extreme precipitation. The BoB surrounded by land on three sides and the complex topography of the TP bring challenges to implementing numerical simulation in these regions. However, the scarcity of data in the two areas makes it necessary to find a technological process to perform practicable numerical simulations on the BoB TC and its induced extreme precipitation to carry out further research. In this study, the WRF 3.9.1 is used to perform many simulation experiments on a northward BoB TC Rashmi (2008) from 24 to 27 October 2008 associated with a record-breaking extreme precipitation on the TP, indicating that the selection of the simulation region, the source of initial-boundary conditions, and the cumulus convection schemes are three important factors influencing the results. We examined and compared the simulation of Rashmi with 10 experiments that were generated by combining The Final Operational Global Analysis (FNL) reanalysis data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting 5(th) generation reanalysis (ERA5) data as initial-boundary conditions with five cumulus convection schemes. Most of the experiments can predict Rashmi and precipitation in the TP to a certain degree, but present different characteristics. Compared with FNL, the ERA5 performs well regarding Rashmi’s intensity and thermal structure but overestimates Rashmi’s moving speed. For the extreme precipitation in the TP, experiments suffice to reproduce the heavy rainfall (>25 mm/day) in the TP, with TS and ETS scores above 0.3 and most HSS scores greater than 0.4. The optimal experiments of three stations with extreme precipitation deviated from the actual precipitation by less than 15%. The ERA5 TDK scheme is recommended as the optimal solution for balancing the simulation of Rashmi and its extreme precipitation in the TP. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Hydrometeorological Forecasting)
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19 pages, 9146 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of WRF Performance in Simulating an Extreme Precipitation Event over the South of Minas Gerais, Brazil
by Denis William Garcia, Michelle Simões Reboita and Vanessa Silveira Barreto Carvalho
Atmosphere 2023, 14(8), 1276; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081276 - 12 Aug 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1118
Abstract
Extreme precipitation events are becoming increasingly frequent and intense in southeastern Brazil, leading to socio-economic problems. While it is not possible to control these events, providing accurate weather forecasts can help society be better prepared. In this study, we assess the performance of [...] Read more.
Extreme precipitation events are becoming increasingly frequent and intense in southeastern Brazil, leading to socio-economic problems. While it is not possible to control these events, providing accurate weather forecasts can help society be better prepared. In this study, we assess the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating a period of extreme precipitation from 31 December 2021 to 2 January 2022 in the southern region of Minas Gerais (SMG) state in southeastern Brazil. We conducted five simulations using two nested grids: a 12 km grid (coarse resolution) and a 3 km grid (high resolution). For the coarse resolution, we tested the performance of five cumulus convection parameterization schemes: Kain–Fritsch, Betts–Miller–Janjic, Grell–Freitas, Grell–Devenyi, and New Tiedke. We evaluated the impact of these simulations on driving the high-resolution simulations. To assess the performance of the simulations, we compared them with satellite estimates, in situ precipitation measurements from thirteen meteorological stations, and other variables from ERA5 reanalysis. Based on the results, we found that the Grell–Freitas scheme has better performance in simulating the spatial pattern and intensity of precipitation for the studied region when compared with the other four analyzed schemes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Hydrometeorological Forecasting)
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