Predicting Municipal Solid Waste Separation Intentions in Italy: Psychosocial Similarities and Differences Between Northern and Southern Regions

This study examines the psychosocial factors predicting municipal solid waste separation in Italy, applying and extending a model originally developed for Southern regions. The model integrates the Theory of Reasoned Action and the Value-Belief-Norm framework to explain how values, norms, and attitudes shape waste separation intentions and behaviours. Using data from 321 online survey respondents, this study tests the model’s validity in Northern Italy. Additionally, the study examines the relationships among the variables under investigation in people residing in the Northern and Southern regions of Italy. Findings confirm the model (χ² (10) = 28.118, p = 0.002, CFI = 0.956; RMSEA = 0.075; AIC = 8.118): bio-altruistic values and social norms significantly predict positive attitudes, which in turn determine behavioural intentions. Perceived distributive unfairness is negatively associated with attitudes toward waste separation. Separation behaviour is mainly influenced by internal attributions and knowledge, while egoistic values show a negative relationship. The multi-group analysis indicates a good model fit for both Northern and Southern samples (χ² (31) = 45.059, p = 0.049, CFI = 0.969; RMSEA = 0.053; AIC = −16.941), suggesting consistent psychosocial mechanisms. By integrating psychosocial insights with behavioural data, this research highlights the importance of knowledge, fairness, and social norms in promoting sustainable waste management. The findings provide practical guidance for policymakers and practitioners to design regionally communication and participation strategies that enhance the long-term sustainability of waste separation systems in Italy.