Climate, Volume 9, Issue 5 (May 2021) – 19 articles

The populations, species, and communities in high elevation mountainous regions at or above tree line are being impacted by the changing climate. Mountain systems have been recognized as both resilient and extremely threatened by climate change, requiring a more nuanced understanding of potential trajectories of the biotic communities. For high elevation systems in particular, we need to consider how the interactions among climate drivers and topography currently structure the diversity, species composition, and life-history strategies of these communities. Further, predicting biotic responses to changing climate requires knowledge of intra- and inter-specific climate associations within the context of topographically heterogenous landscapes. Changes in temperature, snow, and rain characteristics at regional scales are amplified or attenuated by slope, aspect, and wind patterns occurring at local scales that are often under a hectare or even a meter in extent. Community assemblages are structured by the soil moisture and growing season duration at these local sites, and directional climate change has the potential to alter these two drivers together, independently, or in opposition to one another due to local, intervening variables. Changes threaten species whose water and growing season duration requirements are locally extirpated or species who may be outcompeted by nearby faster-growing, warmer/drier adapted species. However, barring non-analogue climate conditions, species may also be able to more easily track required resource regimes in topographically heterogenous landscapes. New species arrivals composed of competitors, predators and pathogens can further mediate the direct impacts of the changing climate. Plants are moving uphill, demonstrating primary succession with the emergence of new habitats from snow and rock, but these shifts are constrained over the short term by soil limitations and microbes and ultimately by the lack of colonizable terrestrial surfaces. Meanwhile, both subalpine herbaceous and woody species pose threats to more cold-adapted species. Overall, the multiple interacting direct and indirect effects of the changing climate on high elevation systems may lead to multiple potential trajectories for these systems. Full article

This paper explores practical applications of bivariate modelling via copulas of two likely dependent random variables, i.e., of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) coupled with extreme rainfall on the small island of Madeira, Portugal. Madeira, due to its small size (∼740 km${}^2$), very pronounced mountain landscape, and location in the North Atlantic, experiences a wide range of rainfall regimes, or microclimates, which hamper the analyses of extreme rainfall. Previous studies showed that the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on extreme rainfall is at its largest in the North Atlantic sector, with the likelihood of increased rainfall events from December through February, particularly during negative NAO phases. Thus, a copula-based approach was adopted for teleconnection, aiming at assigning return periods of daily values of an NAO index (NAOI) coupled with extreme daily rainfalls—for the period from December 1967 to February 2017—at six representative rain gauges of the island. The results show that (i) bivariate copulas describing the dependence characteristics of the underlying joint distributions may provide useful analytical expressions of the return periods of the coupled previous NAOI and extreme rainfall and (ii) that recent years show signs of increasing climate variability with more anomalous daily negative NAOI along with higher extreme rainfall events. These findings highlight the importance of multivariate modelling for teleconnections of prominent patterns of climate variability, such as the NAO, to extreme rainfall in North Atlantic regions, especially in small islands that are highly vulnerable to the effects of abrupt climate variability. Full article

This study investigated the Water-Energy relationship in the Nile River Basin under changing climate conditions using an energy and water model. Climate change will likely affect both water and energy resources, which will create challenges for future planning and decision making, particularly considering the uncertainty surrounding the direction and magnitude of such effects. According to the assessment model, when countries depend heavily on hydropower for energy, power generation is determined by climate variability. For example, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan are more hydropower-dependent than Burundi or Rwanda. As a result, the trading relationships and economic gains of these countries shift according to climate variability. Among 18 climate scenarios, four demonstrate a change in climate and runoff. Under these scenarios, trading partnerships and economic gains will favor Ethiopia and Egypt instead of Sudan and Egypt. This study examines the extent of potential climate challenges, their effects on the Nile River Basin, and recommends several solutions for environmental planners and decision makers. Although the proposed model has the novel ability of conducting scientific analyses with limited data, this research is still limited by data accessibility. Finally, the study will contribute to the literature on the climate chamber effects on regional and international trade. Full article

Identifying bottom-up (e.g., physical and biogeochemical) drivers for fish catch is essential for sustainable fishing and successful adaptation to climate change through reliable prediction of future fisheries. Previous studies have suggested the potential linkage of fish catch to bottom-up drivers such as ocean temperature or satellite-retrieved chlorophyll concentration across different global ecosystems. Robust estimation of bottom-up effects on global fisheries is, however, still challenging due to the lack of long-term observations of fisheries-relevant biotic variables on a global scale. Here, by using novel long-term biological and biogeochemical data reconstructed from a recently developed data assimilative Earth system model, we newly identified dominant drivers for fish catch in globally distributed coastal ecosystems. A machine learning analysis with the inclusion of reconstructed zooplankton production and dissolved oxygen concentration into the fish catch predictors provides an extended view of the links between environmental forcing and fish catch. Furthermore, the relative importance of each driver and their thresholds for high and low fish catch are analyzed, providing further insight into mechanistic principles of fish catch in individual coastal ecosystems. The results presented herein suggest the potential predictive use of their relationships and the need for continuous observational effort for global ocean biogeochemistry. Full article

The ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Douglas ex C. Lawson) is a climate-sensitive tree species dominant in the mixed conifer stands of the San Bernardino Mountains of California. However, the close proximity to the city of Los Angeles has resulted in extremely high levels of air pollution. Nitrogen (N) deposition, resulting from nitrous oxides emitted from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, has been recorded in this region since the 1980s. The impact of this N deposition on ponderosa pine growth is complex and often obscured by other stressors including climate, bark beetle attack, and tropospheric ozone pollution. Here I use a 160-year-long (1855–2015) ponderosa pine tree ring chronology to examine the annual response of tree growth to both N deposition and climate in this region. The chronology is generated from 34 tree cores taken near Crestline, CA. A stepwise multiple regression between the tree ring chronology and various climate and air pollution stressors indicates that drought conditions at the end of the rainy season (March) and NO₂ pollution during the water year (pOct-Sep) exhibit primary controls on growth (r²-adj = 0.65, p < 0.001). The direct correlation between NO₂ and tree growth suggests that N deposition has a positive impact on ponderosa pine bole growth in this region. However, it is important to note that ozone, a known stressor to ponderosa pine trees, and NO₂ are also highly correlated (r = 0.84, p < 0.05). Chronic exposure to both ozone and nitrogen dioxide may, therefore, have unexpected impacts on tree sensitivity to climate and other stressors in a warming world. Full article

The impact of environmental and meteorological conditions when dealing with sport performance has been demonstrated by several studies carried out in recent years. Among the meteorological variables with the greatest effect are temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind direction and speed. This research focused on analyzing and forecasting the wind patterns occurring in Enoshima Bay (Japan). In particular, the objective of this study was to provide support and guidance to sailors in the preparation of the race strategy, thanks to an in-depth knowledge of these meteorological variables. To do this, an innovative method was used. First, through the combined use of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and CALMET models, a simulation was performed, in order to reconstruct an offshore database of a recent 10-year period (2009–2018) over the race area, inside the bay. Subsequently, the verification of hind-cast was performed: the wind data measured at sea were compared with the data extracted from the CALMET database to verify the validity of the model. The verification was performed through three statistical indexes: BIAS, MAE, and PCC. The analysis showed mixed results, depending on the examined pattern, but made it possible to identify the days that best simulated the reality. Then, the wind data from the selected days were summarized and collected in plots, tables, and maps to design a decision support service (DSS), in order to provide athletes with the necessary information in a simple and effective way. In conclusion, we state that the application of this method extends beyond the sports field. Indeed, the study of wind patterns may be necessary in the design of actions to contrast and adapt to climate change, particularly in coastal areas. Full article

Managing vast federal public lands governed by multiple land use policies creates challenges when demographic data on at-risk species are lacking. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management Cedar City Field Office used this project in the Black Mountains (Utah) to inform vegetation management supporting at-risk greater sage-grouse and Utah prairie dog planning. Ecological systems were mapped from satellite remote sensing imagery and used to model species habitat suitability under two levels of management activity (custodial, preferred) and climate scenarios for historic and two global circulation models. Spatial state-and-transition models of ecological systems were simulated for all six scenarios up to 60 years while coupled with expert-developed habitat suitability indices. All ecological systems are at least moderately departed from reference conditions in 2012, whereas habitat suitability was 50.5% and 48.4% for sage-grouse and prairie dog, respectively. Management actions replaced non-native annual grasslands with perennial grasses, removed conifers, and controlled exotic forbs. The drier climate most affected ecological departure and prairie dog habitat suitability at 30 years only. Different climates influenced spatial patterns of sage-grouse habitat suitability, but nonspatial values were unchanged. Climate impacts on fire, vegetation succession, and restoration explain many results. Front-loading restoration is predicted to benefit under future drier climate. Full article

Here, we study three fundamental climatic phenomena: The seasonal lag, the diurnal lag, and the asymmetry of daily temperature variation. We write a nonlinear ODE based on an energy balance for surface temperature and humidity. The model focuses on small regions of the Earth’s surface; it reproduces the three phenomena with a reasonable accuracy if a few parameters are chosen according to the climatic type of the regions. The plots in this manuscript compare real climatic data with numerical solutions of the model we propose. The model takes into account the doubly periodic forcing of the solar radiation (annual and daily), IR radiation, the existence of thermodynamic bodies with different thermal inertia (land and oceans), and the effect of humidity on the thermal inertia of the air. We write the equations using astronomical parameters with the possibility of applications to exoplanets in mind. We conclude this article investigating the evolution of temperatures in Catania and Sydney if the Earth was on an orbit around the Sun with the same mean distance but greater eccentricity. Full article

There are no studies related to the influence of the coupling between the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern variability on future changes in the austral summer (December-February, DJF) precipitation over the central Andes. Therefore, we evaluated the historical simulations (1980–2005) and projections (2070–2099) for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario of 25 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, we also consider the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) projections nested in three CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, MPI-ESM-MR, and HadGEM2-ES) under RCP 8.5. We separate the CMIP5 GCMs according to their abilities to simulate the nonlinear characteristics of ENSO and the SACZ for the historical period. We found that only three out of 25 CMIP5 GCMs (hereafter group A) simulate the nonlinear characteristics of ENSO and the SACZ during the historical period. Although most CMIP5 GCM project DJF precipitation decreases over the central Andes, group A project precipitation increases related to the projected increase in deep convection over the central Peruvian Amazon. On the regional scale, only RegGFDL (nested in a group A CMIP5 GCM) projects a statistically significant increase in DJF precipitation (~5–15%) over the northern central Andes and the central Peruvian Amazon. Conversely, all RegCM4 simulations project a decrease in DJF precipitation (~−10%) over the southern central Andes. Full article

In the past decade, several dedicated tools have been developed to help natural resources professionals integrate climate science into their planning and implementation; however, it is unclear how often these tools lead to on-the-ground climate adaptation. Here, we describe a training approach that we developed to help managers effectively plan to execute intentional, climate-informed actions. This training approach was developed through the Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) and uses active and focused work time and peer-to-peer interaction to overcome observed barriers to using adaptation planning tools. We evaluate the effectiveness of this approach by examining participant evaluations and outlining the progress of natural resources projects that have participated in our trainings. We outline a case study that describes how this training approach can lead to place and context-based climate-informed action. Finally, we describe best practices based on our experience for engaging natural resources professionals and helping them increase their comfort with climate-informed planning. Full article

This study set up online virtual communities consisting of farmers and stakeholders involved in agriculture and nonfarmers living in rural areas interested in agricultural production. We conducted a deliberation within the communities for 14 days on identifying important climate change adaptation policies for 30 years later under climate change impacts with the relevant knowledge from experts. During the deliberation, after self-introduction took place including the realization of climate change impacts, the participants were provided with the expert knowledge on impacts of climate change, adaptation policies in agricultural sector and so on, then the following discussions covered issues such as the distribution of agricultural produce, insufficient successors, and support for farmers, such as impacts on crops during disasters concerning future scenarios. Attitude changes before and after deliberation were observed in terms of the pros and cons of climate change adaptation policies in agriculture and rural areas, but statistically significant differences were not observed. On the other hand, a statistically significant change was observed in some determinants of the pros and cons, such as the perceived effectiveness and goal intention. This structural change results from that the participants became aware of a different perspective through deliberation. Thus, the online deliberation process was effective to some extent in increasing knowledge and promoting deeper understanding among participants during inquiry and reasoning was deepened in the process as they listened to the opinions of others in a different position with a different idea as well as read and search for scientific findings and information provided by experts. Full article

The aim of this paper was to analyze the impact of air pollution and meteorological conditions on the effectiveness of recreation in selected health resorts in Poland in 2015–2019. Four municipalities with the status of health resorts were compared in terms of exposure to harmful air pollutants such as PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂, and B_(a)P in PM₁₀. In this paper, a comprehensive statistical analysis was performed by determining the basic statistics of the measurement series. In addition, analyses of the occurrence of episodes of elevated PM₁₀ concentrations in health resorts in Poland, as well as correlation and regression analyses, were performed. Statistical analysis showed no annual mean exceedances for the air pollutants analyzed. Average annual concentrations of harmful pollutants decreased year by year in Rabka Zdrój and also in Ciechocinek. The situation was different in Sopot and Ustroń, where the average annual pollution remained at a similar level and there was no downward trend. Studies have shown that travel to spa communities for health purposes can be problematic because air quality, while not exceeding average annual standards, is not satisfactory. To effectively address public health concerns, it is also necessary to consider meteorological conditions when analyzing air quality. A detailed analysis of the impact of meteorological conditions (average air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and visibility) on air quality, based on forecasts, will also help in the implementation of air protection plans and strengthen the control of harmful pollutant levels. Measures to reduce the levels of harmful pollutants will affect the effectiveness of patient treatment in spas. The article presents the correct way to conduct reliable monitoring of air quality and meteorological conditions, where it is particularly important. Full article

Climate trends suggest an increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events and the aggravation of existing conditions in terms of flooding in urban areas. In coastal areas, conditions are aggravated by coexistence with coastal overtopping. Flood risk control is complex, and the interdependencies among the services and sectors in urban areas imply the need for adoption of approaches that embrace the interplay between service providers to ensure critical urban functions. Flooding incorporates several hazards. Assessment of resilience to multiple hazards in complex environments benefits from integrated and multi-sectoral approaches. A common constraint resides in the limited data and tools available for undertaking these complex assessments. This paper proposes a risk-based methodology to assess urban areas’ resilience to flooding by addressing sectors’ interdependencies in a context of limited data and ready-to-use tools. Multisector flood risk identification is pursued with the support of a geographic information system and is applied to Lisbon with a focus on the cascading effects of drainage system failures on buildings, populations, mobility, waste management, and electricity supply. The results demonstrate the potential for combining data and knowledge from different sources with dual modelling approaches, thus allowing one to obtain trends of exposure and vulnerability to flooding for current and climate change scenarios. This methodology facilitates dialogue among stakeholders and decision levels by contributing to capacity building, and it contributes to sustainable development. Full article

Arabian Sea upwelling in the past has been generally studied based on the sediment records. We apply two earth system models and analyze the simulated water vertical velocity to investigate coastal upwelling in the western Arabian Sea over the last millennium. In addition, two models with slightly different configurations are also employed to study the upwelling in the 21st century under the strongest and the weakest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. With a negative long-term trend caused by the orbital forcing of the models, the upwelling over the last millennium is found to be closely correlated with the sea surface temperature, the Indian summer Monsoon and the sediment records. The future upwelling under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario reveals a negative trend, in contrast with the positive trend displayed by the upwelling favorable along-shore winds. Therefore, it is likely that other factors, like water stratification in the upper ocean layers caused by the stronger surface warming, overrides the effect from the upwelling favorable wind. No significant trend is found for the upwelling under the RCP2.6 scenario, which is likely due to a compensation between the opposing effects of the increase in upwelling favorable winds and the water stratification. Full article

In 2017, extreme rainfall events occurred in the northern portion of Peru, causing nearly 100,000 victims, according to the National Emergency Operations Center (COEN). This climatic event was attributed to the occurrence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Therefore, the main objective of this study was to determine and differentiate between the occurrence of canonical ENSO, with a new type of ENSO called “El Niño Costero” (Coastal El Niño). The polynomial equation method was used to analyze the data from the different types of existing ocean indices to determine the occurrence of ENSO. It was observed that the anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) 2.5 °C (January 2016) generated the “Modoki El Niño” and that the anomaly of SST −0.3 °C (January 2017) generated the “Modoki La Niña”; this sequential generation generated El Niño Costero. This new knowledge about the sui generis origin of El Niño Costero, based on the observations of this analysis, will allow us to identify and obtain important information regarding the occurrence of this event. A new oceanic index called the Pacific Regional Equatorial Index (PREI) was proposed to follow the periodic evolution and forecast with greater precision a new catastrophic event related to the occurrence of El Niño Costero and to implement prevention programs. Full article

In the weeks before the 2019 federal election, climate change strikes occurred in Canada and across the globe, which may have increased the salience of this policy issue. We use two data sources to examine the role of climate change in the 2019 federal election: a representative survey of 1500 Canadians and 2109 Facebook posts from the five major party leaders. After accounting for political ideology and region, we find that concern about climate change was a strong positive predictor of liberal support. We triangulate these findings by analyzing Facebook posts. We find that left-wing politicians were more likely to post about climate change and that posts about climate change received more likes, comments, and shares than other posts. This higher level of user engagement did not differ depending on which political party posted the climate change message. The combination of sources offers news insights into citizen-elite interactions and electoral outcomes. Climate change was important in the election, whether this importance was measured through survey data or user engagement with leaders’ climate change posts. Full article

An emerging component of the adaptation discourse, embracing theory, practice and review, is that of the negative assessment of adaptation, namely, maladaptation. Political theories and concepts have been applied as one of these assessment tools, giving rise to a political critique of maladaptation. Such a critique contrasts with the more conventional scientific and technical assessments of adaptation policies, programs and practices. Key political themes in studies of maladaptation include resource management and allocations, decision making processes, equity and fairness, gender, power and influence, and Nature and ecology. Within the scholarship on the politics of maladaptation, overlapping frameworks can be identified. Critiques of adaptation have been applied to the preconditions of adaptation, adaptation decision making processes and institutions, and to adaptation outcomes. There are a number of conceptual challenges in undertaking political analyses of adaptation. In this article, we outline the origins of the adaptation and maladaptation concepts, we describe the key political issues, we identify the application of politics in the maladaptation discourse and identify the major political perspectives. Finally, we draw conclusions on the state of the maladaptation discourse. Full article