Next Article in Journal
Farmers’ Net Income Distribution and Regional Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Empirical Study of Bangladesh
Next Article in Special Issue
The Hiatus in Global Warming and Interactions between the El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Comparing Observations and Modeling Results
Previous Article in Journal
Mapping Precipitation, Temperature, and Evapotranspiration in the Mkomazi River Basin, Tanzania
Previous Article in Special Issue
Changes in Earth’s Energy Budget during and after the “Pause” in Global Warming: An Observational Perspective
Article Menu
Issue 3 (September) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Climate 2018, 6(3), 64; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030064

The Life and Death of the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus Parsimoniously Explained

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT—The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
Received: 25 May 2018 / Revised: 18 July 2018 / Accepted: 19 July 2018 / Published: 21 July 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Postmortem of the Global Warming Hiatus)
Full-Text   |   PDF [779 KB, uploaded 24 July 2018]   |  

Abstract

The main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is considerably more accurate if El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are regarded as additional forcings of the global temperature and hence subject to the same filtering as the other forcing components. By considering these as predictors in a linear regression scheme, more than 92% of the variance in the instrumental GMST over the period 1870–2017 is explained by this model, in particular, all features of the 1998–2015 hiatus, including its death. While the more prominent pauses during 1870–1915 and 1940–1970 can be attributed to clustering in time of strong volcanic eruptions, the recent hiatus is an unremarkable phenomenon that is attributed to ENSO with a small contribution from solar activity. View Full-Text
Keywords: hiatus; attribution; volcanic forcing; solar forcing; anthropogenic forcing; AMO; ENSO; multiple regression; long-memory response hiatus; attribution; volcanic forcing; solar forcing; anthropogenic forcing; AMO; ENSO; multiple regression; long-memory response
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Rypdal, K. The Life and Death of the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus Parsimoniously Explained. Climate 2018, 6, 64.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Climate EISSN 2225-1154 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top