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Article

Permafrost Degradation within Eastern Chukotka CALM Sites in the 21st Century Based on CMIP5 Climate Models

1
Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia
2
Center for Ecology and Productivity of Forests, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow 119991, Russia
3
Informatics and Control Systems Department, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow 119991, Russia
4
Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 Amsterdam, The Netherlands
5
Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Issues in Soil Science, Puschino Center of Biological Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Russia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Geosciences 2019, 9(5), 232; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9050232
Received: 30 March 2019 / Revised: 14 May 2019 / Accepted: 17 May 2019 / Published: 21 May 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cryosphere II)
Permafrost degradation caused by contemporary climate change significantly affects arctic regions. Active layer thickening combined with the thaw subsidence of ice-rich sediments leads to irreversible transformation of permafrost conditions and activation of exogenous processes, such as active layer detachment, thermokarst and thermal erosion. Climatic and permafrost models combined with a field monitoring dataset enable the provision of predicted estimations of the active layer and permafrost characteristics. In this paper, we present the projections of active layer thickness and thaw subsidence values for two Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites of Eastern Chukotka coastal plains. The calculated parameters were used for estimation of permafrost degradation rates in this region for the 21st century under various IPCC climate change scenarios. According to the studies, by the end of the century, the active layer will be 6–13% thicker than current values under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6 climate scenario and 43–87% under RCP 8.5. This process will be accompanied by thaw subsidence with the rates of 0.4–3.7 cm∙a−1. Summarized surface level lowering will have reached up to 5 times more than current active layer thickness. Total permafrost table lowering by the end of the century will be from 150 to 310 cm; however, it will not lead to non-merging permafrost formation. View Full-Text
Keywords: active layer; permafrost; thaw subsidence; seasonal thaw modeling; CALM; Chukotka; CMIP5 active layer; permafrost; thaw subsidence; seasonal thaw modeling; CALM; Chukotka; CMIP5
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MDPI and ACS Style

Maslakov, A.; Shabanova, N.; Zamolodchikov, D.; Volobuev, V.; Kraev, G. Permafrost Degradation within Eastern Chukotka CALM Sites in the 21st Century Based on CMIP5 Climate Models. Geosciences 2019, 9, 232. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9050232

AMA Style

Maslakov A, Shabanova N, Zamolodchikov D, Volobuev V, Kraev G. Permafrost Degradation within Eastern Chukotka CALM Sites in the 21st Century Based on CMIP5 Climate Models. Geosciences. 2019; 9(5):232. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9050232

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maslakov, Alexey, Natalia Shabanova, Dmitry Zamolodchikov, Vasili Volobuev, and Gleb Kraev. 2019. "Permafrost Degradation within Eastern Chukotka CALM Sites in the 21st Century Based on CMIP5 Climate Models" Geosciences 9, no. 5: 232. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9050232

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