Groundwater Vulnerability and Environmental Impact Assessment of Urban Underground Rail Transportation in Karst Region: Case Study of Modified COPK Method

Urbanization always leads to increasing challenges to the groundwater resources in karst regions due to intensive land use, infrastructure development, and the rapid transmission potential of pollutants. This study proposed an improved groundwater vulnerability assessment (GVA) framework by modifying the widely used COP (Concentration of flow, Overlying layers, and Precipitation) model, through the integration of three additional indicators: urban underground rail transportation (UURT), land use and cover (LULC), and karst development (K). Guiyang, a typical urbanized karst city in southwest China, was selected as the case study. The improved COP model, namely the COPK model, showed stronger spatial differentiation and a higher Pearson correlation coefficient ($r$) with nitrate concentrations ($r$ = 0.4388) compared to the original COP model (R = 0.3689), which validates the effectiveness of the newly introduced indicators. However, both R values remained below 0.5, even after model modification, suggesting that intensive human activities play a role in influencing nitrate distribution. The pollution load index (PI) was developed based on seven types of pollution sources, and it was integrated with the COPK vulnerability index using a risk matrix approach, producing a groundwater risk map classified into five levels. Global Moran’s I analysis (0.9171 for COP model and 0.8739 for COPK model) confirmed strong and significant spatial clustering patterns for the two models. The inclusion of UURT and LULC improved the model’s sensitivity to urban-related pressures and enhanced its capacity to detect local risk zones. It is a scalable tool for groundwater risk assessment in urbanized karst areas and offers practical insights for land use planning and sustainable groundwater management.