Effects of Human Activities on Hydrological Components in the Yiluo River Basin in Middle Yellow River

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) and water resource utilization behavior and policy (WRUBAP) affect the hydrological cycle in different ways. Their effects on streamflow and hydrological balance components were analyzed in the Yiluo River Basin using the delta method and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The multivariable (runoff and actual evapotranspiration) calibration and validation method was used to reduce model uncertainty. LUCC impact on hydrological balance components (1976–2015) was evaluated through comparison of simulated paired land use scenarios. WRUBAP impact on runoff was assessed by comparing natural (simulated) and observed runoff. It showed that urban area reduction led to decreased groundwater, but increased surface runoff and increased water area led to increased evaporation. LUCC impact on annual runoff was found limited; for instance, the difference under the paired scenarios was <1 mm. Observed runoff was 34.7–144.1% greater than natural runoff during November–June because of WRUBAP. The effect of WRUBAP on wet season runoff regulation was limited before the completion of the Guxian Reservoir, whereas WRUBAP caused a reduction in natural runoff of 21.6–35.0% during the wet season (July–October) after its completion. The results suggest that WRUBAP has greater influence than LUCC on runoff in the Yiluo River Basin. Based on existing drought mitigation measures, interbasin water transfer measures and deep groundwater exploitation could reduce the potential for drought attributable to predicted future climate extremes. In addition to reservoir regulation, conversion of farmland to forestry in the upstream watershed could also reduce flood risk.