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Article

Projecting Changes in Temperature Extremes in the Han River Basin of China Using Downscaled CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensembles

by 1,2, 3,*, 3,4,* and 3,5
1
School of Tourism and Environment Resources, Ankang University, Ankang 725000, Shaanxi, China
2
Engineering Technology Research Center for Water Resource Protection and Utilization of Han River, Ankang 725000, Shaanxi, China
3
NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
4
Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
5
School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 424; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040424
Received: 8 March 2020 / Revised: 17 April 2020 / Accepted: 20 April 2020 / Published: 22 April 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Meteorology)
Estimating the changes in the spatial–temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events under future climate scenarios is critical to provide reference information to help mitigate climate change. In this study, we analyzed 16 extreme temperature indices calculated based on downscaled data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) that were obtained from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the Han River Basin (HRB). The results indicate that the downscaled data from 28 GCMs reproduced a consistent sign of recent trends for all extreme temperature indices except the DTR for the historical period (1961–2013). We found significantly increasing trends for the warm extreme indices (i.e., TXx, TNx, TX90p, TN90p, SU, TR, and WSDI) and considerably decreasing trends for the cold extreme indices (i.e., TX10p, TN10p, CSDI, FD, ID) under both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for 2021–2100. Spatially, great changes in warm extremes will occur in the west and southeast of the HRB in the future. The projected changes in extreme temperatures will impact the eco-environment and agricultural production. Our findings will help regional managers adopt countermeasures and strategies to adapt to future climate change, especially extreme weather events. View Full-Text
Keywords: temperature extremes; statistical downscaling; Han River Basin; climate change; GCM; CMIP5 temperature extremes; statistical downscaling; Han River Basin; climate change; GCM; CMIP5
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MDPI and ACS Style

Xiao, W.; Wang, B.; Liu, D.L.; Feng, P. Projecting Changes in Temperature Extremes in the Han River Basin of China Using Downscaled CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensembles. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 424. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040424

AMA Style

Xiao W, Wang B, Liu DL, Feng P. Projecting Changes in Temperature Extremes in the Han River Basin of China Using Downscaled CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensembles. Atmosphere. 2020; 11(4):424. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040424

Chicago/Turabian Style

Xiao, Weiwei, Bin Wang, De L. Liu, and Puyu Feng. 2020. "Projecting Changes in Temperature Extremes in the Han River Basin of China Using Downscaled CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensembles" Atmosphere 11, no. 4: 424. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040424

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