Wastewater Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Rural Kentucky, 2021–2023
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Wastewater Sampling
2.2. Wastewater Analysis
2.3. Data Management and Sharing
2.4. Statistical Analysis
2.4.1. Clinical Case Data
2.4.2. SARS-CoV-2 Variant Circulation
2.4.3. Wastewater Data
2.4.4. Wastewater Prediction Model
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Characteristics
3.2. Wastewater Correlation with Case-Based Surveillance
3.3. Case Prediction Using Wastewater Data
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| SARS-CoV-2 | severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus |
| RNA | ribonucleic acid |
| WWTP | wastewater treatment plant |
| CDC | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
| WBDS | wastewater-based disease surveillance |
| NWSS | National Wastewater Surveillance System |
| ESP | exclusion-based sample preparation |
| PMP | paramagnetic particle |
| Cq | quantification cycle |
| PCR | polymerase chain reaction |
| GLM | generalized linear model |
| RUCC | rural-urban continuity code |
| CCVI | COVID-19 Community Vulnerability Index |
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| Site | WWTP Characteristics | Wastewater Surveillance | County Characteristics | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population Served | Commercial Customers | Annual Volume 1 | Start Date | End Date | Population 2 | Sewered (%) 3 | RUCC 4 | CCVI 5 | |
| A | 32,575 | 1491 | 6942 | 23 May 2021 | 17 April 2023 | 47,754 | 81 | 2 | 0.233 |
| B | 4723 | 761 | 1507 | 10 January 2022 | 17 April 2023 | 26,438 | 24 | 6 | 0.583 |
| C | 15,212 | 796 | 4580 | 5 July 2021 | 17 April 2023 | 24,565 | 60 | 7 | 0.133 |
| D | 8664 | 708 | 1196 | 22 August 2021 | 17 April 2022 | 35,298 | 33 | 7 | 0.342 |
| E | 3508 | 111 | 556 | 31 May 2021 | 17 April 2023 | 11,490 | 26 | 9 | 0.875 |
| F | 2773 | 18 | 553 | 13 June 2021 | 17 April 2023 | 22,550 | 32 | 7 | 0.508 |
| G | 3679 | 116 | 83 | 5 July 2021 | 17 April 2023 | 13,691 | 15 | 9 | 0.650 |
| H | 2430 | 164 | 363 | 31 August 2021 | 8 March 2023 | 21,229 | 30 | 9 | 0.617 |
| I | 8941 | 439 | 2763 | 23 September 2021 | 9 March 2023 | 27,929 | 33 | 7 | 0.483 |
| J | 5258 | 426 | 1234 | 13 June 2021 | 29 March 2023 | 22,550 | 32 | 7 | 0.508 |
| Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA (cp/mL) 1 | County-Level COVID-19 Positive Tests (7-Day Moving Average) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WWTP | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min | Max | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min | Max |
| A | 88 | 135.5 | 114.4 | 110.7 | 0 | 537.6 | 88 | 27.4 | 20.6 | 30.7 | 1.7 | 198.9 |
| B | 58 | 226.1 | 207.4 | 202.1 | 0 | 806.9 | 58 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| C | 121 | 199.0 | 132.1 | 221.8 | 0 | 1360.0 | 121 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 0.4 | 65.9 |
| D | 42 | 270.1 | 157.7 | 266.2 | 0 | 972.5 | 42 | 32.5 | 20.1 | 32.1 | 0.4 | 109.0 |
| E | 70 | 138.5 | 65.9 | 163.6 | 0 | 770.3 | 70 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 31.0 |
| F | 120 | 262.0 | 97.1 | 486.8 | 0 | 3877.0 | 120 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 0.4 | 51.9 |
| G | 77 | 107.8 | 44.9 | 196.4 | 0 | 1350.2 | 77 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 0.1 | 59.7 |
| H | 66 | 113.5 | 63.9 | 156.1 | 0 | 776.4 | 66 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 0.7 | 71.6 |
| I | 57 | 120.4 | 69.9 | 134.0 | 0 | 528.8 | 57 | 18.5 | 11.3 | 17.8 | 0 | 79.0 |
| J | 120 | 151.6 | 77.1 | 196.7 | 0 | 1360.8 | 120 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 0.4 | 46.3 |
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Share and Cite
Keck, J.W.; Adatorwovor, R.; Noble, A.; Tucker, S.; Strike, W.D.; Torabi, S.; Banadaki, M.D.; Mijatovic, B.; Roggenkamp, S.K.; McNeil, D.L.; et al. Wastewater Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Rural Kentucky, 2021–2023. Viruses 2026, 18, 282. https://doi.org/10.3390/v18030282
Keck JW, Adatorwovor R, Noble A, Tucker S, Strike WD, Torabi S, Banadaki MD, Mijatovic B, Roggenkamp SK, McNeil DL, et al. Wastewater Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Rural Kentucky, 2021–2023. Viruses. 2026; 18(3):282. https://doi.org/10.3390/v18030282
Chicago/Turabian StyleKeck, James W., Reuben Adatorwovor, Ann Noble, Savannah Tucker, William D. Strike, Soroosh Torabi, Mohammad Dehghan Banadaki, Blazan Mijatovic, Steven K. Roggenkamp, Donna L. McNeil, and et al. 2026. "Wastewater Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Rural Kentucky, 2021–2023" Viruses 18, no. 3: 282. https://doi.org/10.3390/v18030282
APA StyleKeck, J. W., Adatorwovor, R., Noble, A., Tucker, S., Strike, W. D., Torabi, S., Banadaki, M. D., Mijatovic, B., Roggenkamp, S. K., McNeil, D. L., Ormsbee, L. E., & Berry, S. M. (2026). Wastewater Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Rural Kentucky, 2021–2023. Viruses, 18(3), 282. https://doi.org/10.3390/v18030282

