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Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan

1
Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro 76062, Pakistan
2
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro 76062, Pakistan
3
Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University Technology Malaysia (UTM), 81310 UTM Skudai, Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
4
Department of Thermo Fluids, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University Technology Malaysia (UTM), 81310 UTM Skudai, Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
5
Faculty of Industrial Management, University Malaysia Pahang (UMP), Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Kuantan 26300, Malaysia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2018, 11(4), 757; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11040757
Received: 28 February 2018 / Revised: 13 March 2018 / Accepted: 21 March 2018 / Published: 27 March 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable and Renewable Energy Systems)
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Abstract

The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC), have been ranked using the Expert Choice® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan. View Full-Text
Keywords: Pakistan; electricity crises; sustainable energy planning; AHP; Expert Choice Pakistan; electricity crises; sustainable energy planning; AHP; Expert Choice
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Hussain Mirjat, N.; Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.; Mustafa, M.W.; Rahman, M.M.; Khan, M.W.A. Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan. Energies 2018, 11, 757.

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