Climate change has gained widespread attention, and the rapid growth of the economy in China has generated a considerable amount of carbon emissions. Zhejiang Province was selected as a study area. First, the energy-related carbon emissions from 2000 to 2014 were accounted for, and then the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition model was applied to analyse the driving factors underlying the carbon emissions. Finally, three scenarios (inertia, comparative decoupling and absolute decoupling) for 2020 and 2030 were simulated based on the low-carbon city and Human Impact Population Affluence Technology (IPAT) models. The results showed (1) carbon emissions increased by 1.66 times from 2000 to 2014, and trends of carbon emissions were used to divide the study period into three phases (rapid, medium growth and slow decrease phases, with annual growth rates of 12.60%, 4.77% and −1.24%, respectively); (2) the energy intensity effect from 2000–2011 inhibited carbon emissions but was exceeded by the economic output effect, which increased emissions, whereas the energy intensity effect from 2011–2014 outweighed the economic output effect; (3) the scenario analyses revealed that both the comparative and absolute decoupling scenarios would remain consistent with the carbon emissions boundaries in 2020 and 2030, but the comparative decoupling scenario was more reasonable for sustainable development. In addition, appropriate design of emission trading scheme could help to achieve the comparative decoupling by financial incentives.
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