An Early Warning System for Flood Detection Using Critical Slowing Down
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Early Warning System Using Critical Slowing Down
2.2. Kendall Tau Versus Quantile Estimation
3. Data
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Critical Slowing Down for Early Warning Signal
4.2. Kendall’s Tau Versus Quantile Estimation for Early Warning System
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Statistics | Daily |
---|---|
Number of data | 3939 |
Average | 9.52 |
Max | 20.44 |
Min | 8 |
Standard deviation | 1.26 |
Skew | 3.29 |
Kurtosis | 15.64 |
No. | Date of Flood Events | No. | Date of Flood Events |
---|---|---|---|
1. | 23/11/2000 | 7. | 12/02/2006–13/02/2006 |
2. | 24/12/2001–25/12/2001 | 8. | 08/01/2007 |
3. | 10/12/2003–11/12/2003 | 9. | 08/12/2007–18/12/2007 |
4. | 11/12/2004–14/12/2004 | 10. | 30/11/2008 |
5. | 24/11/2005 | 11. | 04/01/2009–05/01/2009 |
6. | 18/12/2005 | 12. | 06/11/2009–07/11/2009 |
Flood Events | Variance | Spectral Density |
---|---|---|
None | 21/06/2000 (False alarm) | None |
None | 09/08/2000 (False alarm) | None |
23/11/2000 | 18/11/2000 (EWS 5 days) | 18/11/2000 (EWS 5 days) |
24/12/2001–25/12/2001 | 04/03/2001 (EWS 9 months) | 19/06/2001 (EWS 6 months) |
None | None | 07/07/2003 (False alarm) |
10/12/2003–11/12/2003 | 06/10/2003 (EWS 2 months) | 26/11/2003 (EWS 14 days) |
None | None | 21/03/2004 (False alarm) |
11/12/2004–14/12/2004 | 14/08/2004 (EWS 4 months) | 21/12/2004 (Late 10 days) |
24/11/2005 | 20/03/2005 (EWS 8 months) | No Signal |
18/12/2005 | No Signal | No Signal |
12/02/2006–13/02/2006 | 13/04/2006 (Late 2 months) | 25/05/2006 (Late 3 months) |
None | None | 05/11/2006 (False alarm) |
08/01/2007 | 16/08/2006 (EWS 4 months) | 01/01/2007 (EWS 7 days) |
None | None | 28/05/2007 (False alarm) |
08/12/2007–18/12/2007 | No signal | 13/09/2007 (EWS 3 months) |
30/11/2008 | 24/06/2008 (EWS 5 months) | No signal |
04/01/2009–05/01/2009 | No signal | 12/03/2009 (Late 2 months) |
06/11/2009–07/11/2009 | 29/05/2010 (Late 6 months) | 14/11/2009 (Late 8 days) |
None | None | 06/07/2010 (False alarm) |
None | None | 28/09/2010 (False alarm) |
Events/Quantile | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 19% | 20% |
EWS (0.5) | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
Late (0.3) | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
False (−0.2) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
Total weight | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
Flood Events | Signal Detected | EWS |
---|---|---|
23/11/2000 | 22/11/2000 | Early 1 day |
None | 19/01/2001 | False alarm |
None | 16/11/2001 | False alarm |
24/12/2001–25/12/2001 | 16/12/2001 | Early 8 days |
None | 17/12/2002 | False alarm |
10/12/2003–11/12/2003 | 30/11/2003 | Early 10 days |
None | 30/01/2004 | False alarm |
11/12/2004–14/12/2004 | 10/12/2004 | Early 1 day |
24/11/2005 | 23/11/2005 | Early 1 day |
18/12/2005 | 15/12/2005 | Early 3 days |
12/02/2006–13/02/2006 | 12/02/2006 | First day detection |
08/01/2007 | 21/12/2006 | Early 18 days |
None | 04/11/2007 | False alarm |
08/12/2007–18/12/2007 | 07/12/2007 | Early 1 day |
None | 29/02/2008 | False alarm |
30/11/2008 | 29/11/2008 | Early 1 day |
04/01/2009–05/01/2009 | 02/01/2009 | Early 2 day |
06/11/2009–07/11/2009 | 06/11/2009 | First day detection |
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Share and Cite
Syed Musa, S.M.S.; Md Noorani, M.S.; Abdul Razak, F.; Ismail, M.; Alias, M.A.; Hussain, S.I. An Early Warning System for Flood Detection Using Critical Slowing Down. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 6131. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176131
Syed Musa SMS, Md Noorani MS, Abdul Razak F, Ismail M, Alias MA, Hussain SI. An Early Warning System for Flood Detection Using Critical Slowing Down. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(17):6131. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176131
Chicago/Turabian StyleSyed Musa, Syed Mohamad Sadiq, Mohd Salmi Md Noorani, Fatimah Abdul Razak, Munira Ismail, Mohd Almie Alias, and Saiful Izzuan Hussain. 2020. "An Early Warning System for Flood Detection Using Critical Slowing Down" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 17: 6131. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176131