Search Results (83)

In recent years, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has led to a rise in unplanned unit outages, posing significant risks to the safe operation of power systems and underscoring the critical need for accurate prediction and effective mitigation of wind and solar power ramp events. Unlike traditional power forecasting, ramp event prediction must capture the abrupt output variations induced by short-term meteorological fluctuations. This review systematically examines recent advancements in the field, focusing on three principal areas: the definition and detection of ramp event characteristics, innovations in predictive model architectures, and strategies for precision optimization. Our analysis reveals that while detection algorithms for ramp events have matured and the overall predictive performance of power forecasting models has improved, existing approaches often struggle to capture localized ramp phenomena, resulting in persistent deviations. Moreover, current research highlights the necessity of developing evaluation systems tailored to the specific operational hazards of ramp events, rather than relying solely on conventional forecasting metrics. The integration of artificial intelligence has accelerated progress in both event prediction and error correction. However, significant challenges remain, particularly regarding the interpretability, generalizability, and real-time applicability of advanced models. Future research should prioritize the development of adaptive, ramp-specific evaluation frameworks, the fusion of physical and data-driven modeling techniques, and the deployment of multi-modal systems capable of leveraging heterogeneous data sources for robust, actionable ramp event forecasting. Full article

Wind power ramping events refer to sustained unidirectional and large-magnitude fluctuations in wind power output over short durations, exhibiting distinct temporal characteristics and imposing significant impacts on power balance. To address the strong temporal dependency of wind power ramping events, a time-sequential outage model for conventional generators was derived and system operational states were sampled using non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Considering the frequency dynamics caused by active power imbalances, dynamic frequency security constraints were formulated. An optimal power flow model was developed to minimize wind curtailment and load shedding comprehensive losses, incorporating these dynamic frequency constraints. The optimal power flow model was employed to solve line power flows for sampled system states and compute comprehensive loss risk indices. Case studies on the IEEE RTS-79 system evaluated and compared operational risks across multiple scenarios, validating the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. Full article

The strong volatility of wind power presents persistent challenges to the stable operation of power systems, highlighting the critical need for accurate wind power forecasting to ensure system reliability. This study proposes a wind power prediction approach based on graph convolutional networks, incorporating ramp feature recognition and error correction mechanisms. First, an improved ramp event definition is applied to detect and classify wind power ramp events more accurately, thereby reducing misjudgments caused by short-term fluctuations. Then, a GCN-based model is developed to construct graph representations of various ramp scenarios, allowing for the effective modeling of their coupling relationships. This is integrated with a bidirectional long short-term memory network to enhance prediction performance during power fluctuation periods. Finally, a dynamic error feedback correction mechanism is introduced to iteratively refine the prediction results in real time. Experiments conducted on wind power data from a Belgian wind farm show that the proposed method significantly improves prediction stability and accuracy during ramp events, achieving an approximate 28% improvement compared to conventional models, and demonstrates strong multi-step forecasting capability. Full article

This work analyzes high-power wind turbines (WTs) from the Oravita region, Romania. These WTs are based on slip ring induction generator with wound rotor and we propose a modified architecture with two power converters on both the stator and on the rotor, functioning at variable wind speeds spanning a large interval. Investigations developed around a realistic WT model with doubly fed induction generator show how WT control enables variable wind speed operations at optimal mechanical angular speed (MAS), guaranteeing maximal power point (MPP), but only up to a critical wind speed value, after which the electrical power must saturate for reliable operation. In this reliable operating region, blade pitch angle control must be enforced. Variable wind speed acts as a time-varying parameter disturbance but also imposes the MPP operation setpoint in one of the two analyzed regions. To achieve null tracking errors, a double integrator must appear within the MAS controller when the wind speed disturbance is realistically modeled as a ramp-like input; however, inspecting the linearized model reveals several difficulties as described in the paper, together with the proposed solution tradeoff. The study developed around the Fuhrlander-FL-MD-70 1.5[MW] WT model shows that several competitive controllers are designed and tested in the identified operating regions of interest, as they validate the reliable and performant functioning specifications. Full article

The inherent variability of solar energy presents a significant challenge for grid operators, particularly when it comes to maintaining stability. Studying ramping phenomena is therefore crucial to understanding and managing fluctuations in power supply. In line with this goal, this study proposes a new classification approach for solar irradiance ramps, categorizing them into four distinct classes. We have proposed a methodology including adaptation and extension of a wind ramp classification to solar ramp classification titled the Irradiance-Based Extreme Day Identification method. Our proposal includes an agglomerative algorithm to find new ramp class boundaries. The strength of the proposed method relies on that it allows its generalization to any dataset. We assessed it on three datasets from distinct geographic regions—Oregon (northwestern United States), Hawaii (central Pacific Ocean), and Portugal (southwestern Europe)—each with varying temporal resolutions of five seconds, ten seconds, and one minute. The class boundaries for each dataset results in different limits of Z score value, as a consequence of the different climatic characteristics of each location and the time resolution of the datasets. The “low” class includes values less than 0.62 for Portugal, less than 2.17 for Oregon, and less than 2.19 for Hawaii. The “moderate” class spans values from 0.62 to 3.51 for Portugal, from 2.17 to 5.01 for Oregon, and from 2.19 to 5.88 for Hawaii. The “high” class covers values greater than 3.51 and up to 6 for Portugal, greater than 5.01 and up to 10.72 for Oregon, and greater than 5.88 and up to 8.01 for Hawaii. Lastly, the “severe” class includes values greater than 6 for Portugal, greater than 10.72 for Oregon, and greater than 8.01 for Hawaii. Under cloudy sky conditions, it is observed that the proposed algorithm is able to classify the four classes. These thresholds show how the proposed methodology adapts to the unique characteristics of each regional dataset. Full article

In response to the urgent threat of climate change and the drivers of high greenhouse gas emissions, countries worldwide are adopting policies to reduce their carbon emissions, with net-zero emissions targets. These targets vary by region, with Canada aiming to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. In response to the Independent Electricity System Operator’s (IESO’s) “Pathways to Decarbonization” report, which evaluates a proposed moratorium on new natural gas generating stations, this study presents a methodology to support energy transitions in Ontario by using a modified Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model, which focuses on replacing fossil fuel power plants (FFPPs) with clean energy sources, including nuclear, solar, wind, and hydro. This research expands on our prior work that used the DICE model to evaluate the potential for replacing FFPPs with Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) on a global scale. This study includes solar, wind, hydro, and SMRs to provide a diversified clean energy portfolio and integrates fuzzy logic to optimize construction rates and address uncertainties. The study uses Ontario as a case study, aligning with IESO’s objectives for Ontario’s energy transition. The IESO’s projections for net zero by 2050 are applied. The study is extended to 2100 to assess the longer-term implications of sustained energy transition efforts beyond the immediate goals set by the IESO. This approach is scalable to other regions and countries with similar energy transition challenges. The study results indicate that to meet Ontario’s 2050 net-zero target, approximately 183 SMR units, 1527 solar units, 289 wind units, and 449 hydro units need to be constructed. For the 2100 target, the required number of units is slightly higher due to the longer time frame, reflecting a gradual ramp-up in construction. The optimization of construction rates using fuzzy logic shows that the pace of deployment is influenced by critical factors such as resource availability, policy support, and public acceptance. This underscores the need for accelerated clean energy deployment to meet long-term emissions reduction goals. The findings highlight the complexities of transitioning to a low-carbon energy system and the importance of addressing uncertainties in planning. Policymakers are urged to integrate these insights into strategic energy planning to ensure the successful deployment of clean energy technologies. This study provides valuable recommendations for optimizing energy transitions through a robust, flexible framework that accounts for both technological and socio-economic challenges. Full article

This paper proposes a method based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and the detection of Wind Energy Extraction Latency for a given wind turbine (WT) designed for ultra-short-term (UST) wind energy forecasting over complex terrain. The core of the suggested modeling approach is the Wind Spatial Extrapolation model (WiSpEx). Measured vertical wind profile data are used as the inlet for stationary CFD simulations to reconstruct the wind flow over a wind farm (WF). This wind field reconstruction helps operators obtain the wind speed and available wind energy at the hub height of the installed WTs, enabling the estimation of their energy production. WT power output is calculated by accounting for the average time it takes for the turbine to adjust its power output in response to changes in wind speed. The proposed method is evaluated with data from two WTs (E40-500, NM 750/48). The wind speed dataset used for this study contains ramp events and wind speeds that range in magnitude from 3 m/s to 18 m/s. The results show that the proposed method can achieve a Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) of 8.44% for E40-500 and 9.26% for NM 750/48, even with significant simplifications, while the SMAPE of the persistence model is above 15.03% for E40-500 and 16.12% for NM 750/48. Each forecast requires less than two minutes of computational time on a low-cost commercial platform. This performance is comparable to state-of-the-art methods and significantly faster than time-dependent simulations. Such simulations necessitate excessive computational resources, making them impractical for online forecasting. Full article

Assessing market power in the presence of different production technologies such as renewable energies, including wind and solar power, is crucial for electric market analysis and operation. This paper investigates structural market power by incorporating wind farms and solar generation over a short-term period. The study examines the issue of market concentration boundaries to assess structural market power by calculating the minimum and maximum market concentration index values in the day-ahead market. It models the technical specifications of power plants, such as the maximum and minimum production limits, ramp-up and ramp-down rates, and minimum required up and down times. By extracting the spatiotemporal correlation of wind power generation from real data, the uncertainty of renewable power generation is represented through a set of scenarios. The analysis explores the correlation effects of wind farms, solar generation, and wind penetration levels under different ownership structures. Simulation results using a modified PJM five-bus system illustrate the effectiveness of the developed method. Our results indicate that integrating renewable energy can reduce the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) by up to 30% as wind penetration levels rise from 0% to 40%, fostering a more competitive market structure. However, the correlation between wind farms also increases market volatility, with the standard deviation of the HHI rising by about 25% during peak load periods. These findings demonstrate the practical applicability of the developed methodology for assessing market dynamics in the presence of renewable energy sources. Full article

The growing integration of renewable energy sources, such as photovoltaic and wind systems, into energy grids has underscored the need for reliable control mechanisms to mitigate the inherent intermittency of these sources. According to the Brazilian grid operator (ONS), there have been cascading disconnections in renewable energy distributed systems (REDs) in recent years, highlighting the need for robust control models. This article addresses this issue by presenting the validation of an active power ramp rate control (PRRC) function for a PV plant coupled with a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) using WECC generic models. The proposed model underwent rigorous validation over an extended analysis period, demonstrating good accuracy using the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and an R-squared (R²) metrics for the active power injected at the Point of Connection (POI), PV active power, and BESS State of Charge (SOC), providing valuable insights for medium and long-term analyses. The ramp rate control module was implemented within the plant power controller (PPC), leveraging second-generation Renewable Energy Systems (RES) models developed by the Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC) as a foundational framework. We conducted simulations using the Anatem software, comparing the results with real-world data collected at 100 ms to 1000 ms intervals from a PV plant equipped with a BESS in Brazil. The proposed model underwent rigorous validation over an extended analysis period, with the presented results based on two days of measurements. The positive sequence model used to represent this control demonstrated good accuracy, as confirmed by metrics such as the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and R-squared (R²). Furthermore, the article underscores the critical role of accurately accounting for the power sampling rate when calculating the ramp rate. Full article

Wind curtailment, caused by wind power uncertainty, has become a prominent issue with the large-scale grid connection of wind power. To fully account for the uncertainty of wind power output, a short-term hydro-wind-thermal operation method based on a wind power confidence interval is proposed. By utilizing the flexible start-stop and efficient ramp-up of cascade hydropower plants to smooth fluctuations in wind power output, a multi-objective optimal scheduling model that minimizes the cost of power generation and maximizes the consumption of clean energy is constructed. To reduce the solution’s complexity, we chunk the model according to the energy type using a hierarchical solution. The overall solution framework, which integrates a nonparametric method, a heuristic algorithm, and an improved particle swarm algorithm, is constructed to solve the model rapidly. The simulation results of a regional power grid show that the proposed method can attain an efficient solution in 83.5 seconds. Furthermore, the proposed method achieves an additional 455,600 kWh of hydropower and a reduction of ¥233,300 in the cost of coal consumption. These findings suggest that the proposed method is a good reference for the short-term operation of a hydro-wind-thermal combination in large-scale wind power access areas. Full article

The volatility and uncertainty associated with the high proportion of wind and PV output in the new power system significantly impact the power and energy balance, making it challenging to accurately assess the risks related to renewable energy abandonment and supply guarantee. Therefore, a probabilistic power and energy balance risk analysis method based on distributed robust optimization is proposed. Firstly, the affine factor and the flexible ramp reserve capacity of thermal power are combined to establish a probabilistic index, which serves to characterize the risk associated with the power and energy balance. Drawing upon the principles of the conditional value at risk theory, the risk indexes of the load shedding power and curtailment power under a certain confidence probability are proposed. Secondly, the probability distribution fuzzy sets of uncertain variables are constructed using the distributionally robust method to measure the Wasserstein distance between different probability distributions. Finally, aiming at minimizing the operation cost of thermal power, the risk cost of power abandonment, and the risk cost of load shedding, a distributed robust optimal scheduling model based on a flexible ramp reserve of thermal power is established. Full article

This paper proposes the development of an active control system to control the power output of a low-power horizontal-axis wind turbine (HAWT) when operating at wind speeds above the rated wind speed. The system is composed of an active articulated vane (AAV) in charge of the orientation of the wind turbine, which is driven by an electric actuator that changes the angle of the AAV to maintain a constant power output. Compared with the passive power regulation systems most often used in low-power HAWTs, active systems allow for better control and, therefore, greater stability of the delivered power, which reduces the structural stresses and allows for controlled braking in any wind condition or during system failures. The control system was designed and simulated using MATLAB R2022b software, and then built and evaluated under laboratory conditions. For the control design, the transfer function (TF) between the pulse width modulation (PWM) and the AAV angle ($\theta$) was determined via laboratory tests using MATLAB’s PIDTurner tool. For the simulation, the relationship between the power output and the AAV angle was determined using the vector decomposition of the wind speed and wind rotor area. Wind speed step and ramp response tests were performed for proportional–integral–derivative (PID) control. The results obtained demonstrate the technical feasibility of this type of control, obtaining settling times (ts) of 6.7 s in the step response and 2.8 s in the ramp response. Full article

Most existing coal-fired power plants were designed for sustained operation at full load to maximize efficiency, reliability, and revenue, as well as to operate air pollution control devices at design conditions. Depending on plant type and design, these plants can adjust output within a fixed range in response to plant operating or market conditions. The need for flexibility driven by increased penetration of variable and non-dispatchable power generation, such as wind and solar, is shifting the traditional mission profile of thermoelectric power plants in three ways: more frequent shutdowns when market or grid conditions warrant, more aggressive load ramp rates (rate of output change), and a lower minimum sustainable load, which provides a wider operating range and helps avoid costly plant shutdowns. Recent studies have shown that the flexibility of a coal-fired power plant can be improved by energy storage. The objective of this work was to analyze a set of energy storage options and determine their impact on the flexibility and economics of a representative coal-fired power plant. The effect of three energy storage systems integrated with a coal power plant on plant flexibility and economics was investigated. The results obtained in this project show that energy storage systems integrated with a thermal power plant improve plant flexibility and participation in the energy and ancillary services markets, which improves plant financial performance. The study was funded by the U.S. Department Office of Fossil Energy FE-1 under award number DE-FE0031903. Full article

Beyond solar and wind energy, wave energy is gaining great interest due to its very high theoretical potential, although its stochastic nature causes intermittent and fluctuating power production. Energy storage system (ESS) integration to wave energy converter (WEC) plants represents a promising solution to mitigate this issue. To overcome the technological limits of the single storage devices, the hybridization of complementary ESSs represents an effective solution, extending the operating range over different timeframes. This paper analyzes the benefits of Li-ion battery–supercapacitor hybrid ESS integration into a grid-connected WEC, aiming at smoothing the produced power oscillations. The hybridization concept involves coupling a power-intensive technology, such as a supercapacitor devoted to managing fluctuations at higher frequency, with a battery technology exploited to manage power variations over longer timeframes to mitigate degradation issues. In this study, a multi-objective data-driven power management strategy, based on the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm, is implemented to minimize power fluctuations in terms of power ramp (representing the power variation between two consecutive values with a 1 s time step), both at the Point of Common Coupling (PCC) and the Li-ion battery terminals, thanks to the supercapacitor peak-shaving function. The SPSA management strategy, together with a suitable sizing procedure, allows a reduction of more than 70% in the power oscillations at the PCC with respect to those at the WEC terminals, while decreasing battery stress by more than 25% if compared to a non-hybrid ESS consisting of a Li-ion battery. This shows how supercapacitor features can extend battery lifespan when integrated in a hybrid ESS. Full article

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation forecasting is an important research topic, aiming to mitigate variability caused by weather conditions and improve power generation planning. Climate factors, including solar irradiance, temperature, and cloud cover, influence the energy conversion achieved by PV systems. Long-term weather forecasting improves PV power generation planning, while short-term forecasting enhances control methods, such as managing ramp rates. The stochastic nature of weather variables poses a challenge for linear regression methods. Consequently, advanced, state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) approaches capable of handling non-linear data, such as long short-term memory (LSTM), have emerged. This paper introduces the implementation of a multivariate machine learning model to forecast PV power generation, considering multiple weather variables. A deep learning solution was implemented to analyze weather variables in a short time horizon. Utilizing a hidden Markov model for data preprocessing, an LSTM model was trained using the Alice Spring dataset provided by DKA Solar Center. The proposed workflow demonstrated superior performance compared to the results obtained by state-of-the-art methods, including support vector machine, radiation classification coordinate with LSTM (RCC-LSTM), and ESNCNN specifically concerning the proposed multi-input single-output LSTM model. This improvement is attributed to incorporating input features such as active power, temperature, humidity, horizontal and diffuse irradiance, and wind direction, with active power serving as the output variable. The proposed workflow achieved a mean square error (MSE) of $2.17\times {10}^{-7}$, a root mean square error (RMSE) of $4.65\times {10}^{-4}$, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of $4.04\times {10}^{-4}$. Full article