Search Results (855)

Extreme precipitation events severely impact agriculture, reducing yields and land use efficiency. The spatiotemporal distribution of Total Column Water Vapor (TCWV), the primary gaseous form of water, directly influences sustainable agricultural management. This study, through multi-source data fusion, employs methods including the Mann–Kendall test, sliding change-point detection, wavelet transform, pixel-scale trend estimation, and linear regression to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of global TCWV from 1959 to 2023 and its impacts on agricultural systems, surpassing the limitations of single-method approaches. Results reveal a global TCWV increase of 0.0168 kg/m²/year from 1959–2023, with a pivotal shift in 2002 amplifying changes, notably in tropical regions (e.g., Amazon, Congo Basins, Southeast Asia) where cumulative increases exceeded 2 kg/m² since 2000, while mid-to-high latitudes remained stable and polar regions showed minimal content. These dynamics escalate weather risks, impacting sustainable agricultural management with irrigation and crop adaptation. To enhance prediction accuracy, we propose a novel hybrid model combining wavelet transform with LSTM, TCN, and GRU deep learning models, substantially improving multidimensional feature extraction and nonstationary trend capture. Comparative analysis shows that WT-TCN performs the best (MAE = 0.170, R² = 0.953), demonstrating its potential for addressing climate change uncertainties. These findings provide valuable applications for precision agriculture, sustainable water resource management, and disaster early warning. Full article

With the accelerating global transition toward sustainable energy systems, power grids with a high share of renewable energy face increasing challenges due to volatility and uncertainty, necessitating advanced flexibility resource planning and stability optimization strategies. This paper presents a comprehensive distribution network planning framework that coordinates and integrates multiple types of flexibility resources through joint optimization and network reconfiguration to enhance system adaptability and operational resilience. A novel virtual network coupling modeling approach is proposed to address topological constraints during network reconfiguration, ensuring radial operation while allowing rapid topology adjustments to isolate faults and restore power supply. Furthermore, to mitigate the uncertainty and fault risks associated with extreme weather events, a CVaR-based risk quantification framework is incorporated into a bi-level optimization model, effectively balancing investment costs and operational risks under uncertainty. In this model, the upper-level planning stage optimizes the siting and sizing of flexibility resources, while the lower-level operational stage coordinates real-time dispatch strategies through demand response, energy storage operation, and dynamic network reconfiguration. Finally, a hybrid SA-PSO algorithm combined with conic programming is employed to enhance computational efficiency while ensuring high solution quality for practical system scales. Case study analyses demonstrate that, compared to single-resource configurations, the proposed coordinated planning of multiple flexibility resources can significantly reduce the total system cost and markedly improve system resilience under fault conditions. Full article

Produce supply chains play a critical role in ensuring fruits and vegetables reach consumers efficiently, affordably, and at optimal freshness. In recent decades, hub-and-spoke network models have emerged as valuable tools for optimizing sustainable cold food supply chains. Traditional optimization efforts typically focus on removing inefficiencies, minimizing lead times, refining inventory management, strengthening supplier relationships, and leveraging technological advancements for better visibility and control. However, the majority of models rely on deterministic approaches that overlook the inherent uncertainties of crop yields, which are further intensified by climate variability. Rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, along with shifting temperature patterns and extreme weather events, have a substantial effect on crop productivity and availability. Such uncertainties can prompt distributors to seek alternative sources, increasing costs due to supply chain reconfiguration. This research introduces a stochastic hub-and-spoke network optimization model specifically designed to minimize transportation expenses by determining optimal distribution routes that explicitly account for climate variability effects on crop yields. A use case involving a cold food supply chain (CFSC) was carried out using several weather scenarios based on climate models and real soil data for California. Strawberries were selected as a representative crop, given California’s leading role in strawberry production. Simulation results show that scenarios characterized by increased rainfall during growing seasons result in increased yields, allowing distributors to reduce transportation costs by sourcing from nearby farms. Conversely, scenarios with reduced rainfall and lower yields require sourcing from more distant locations, thereby increasing transportation costs. Nonetheless, supply chain configurations may vary depending on the choice of climate models or weather prediction sources, highlighting the importance of regularly updating scenario inputs to ensure robust planning. This tool aids decision-making by planning climate-resilient supply chains, enhancing preparedness and responsiveness to future climate-related disruptions. Full article

Accurate short-term rainfall forecasting, an essential component of the broader framework of nowcasting, is crucial for managing extreme weather events. Traditional forecasting approaches, whether radar-based or satellite-based, often struggle with limited spatial coverage or temporal accuracy, reducing their effectiveness. This study tackles these challenges by implementing the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) enhanced with a forward advection nowcasting module, integrating multiple remote sensing rainfall datasets. Specifically, we combine weather radar data with three different satellite-derived rainfall products (H-SAF, GPM, and TRMM) to assess their impact on nowcasting performance for a rainfall event in Attica, Greece (29–30 September 2018). The results demonstrate that combining high-resolution radar data with the broader coverage and high temporal frequency of satellite retrievals, particularly H-SAF, leads to more accurate predictions with lower uncertainty. The assimilation of H-SAF with radar rainfall retrievals (HX experiment) substantially improved forecast skill, reducing the unbiased Root Mean Square Error by almost 60% compared to the control experiment for the 60 min rainfall nowcast and 55% for the 90 min rainfall nowcast. This work validates the effectiveness of the specific LAPS/advection configuration and underscores the importance of multi-source data assimilation for weather prediction. Full article

The sustainable integration of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) with the next-generation distribution networks requires robust, adaptive, and accurate hosting capacity (HC) forecasting. Dynamic Operating Envelopes (DOE) provide real-time constraints for power import/export to the grid, ensuring dynamic DER integration and efficient network operation. However, conventional HC analysis and forecasting approaches struggle to capture temporal dependencies, the impact of DOE constraints on network operation, and uncertainty in DER output. This study introduces a dynamic optimization framework that leverages the benefits of the sensitivity gate of the Sensitivity-Enhanced Recurrent Neural Network (SERNN) forecasting model, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Bayesian Optimization (BO) for HC forecasting. The PSO determines the optimal weights and biases, and BO fine-tunes hyperparameters of the SERNN forecasting model to minimize the prediction error. This approach dynamically adjusts the import/export of the DER output to the grid by integrating the DOE constraints into the SG-PSO-BO architecture. Performance evaluation on the IEEE-123 test network and a real Australian distribution network demonstrates superior HC forecasting accuracy, with an $R^2$ score of 0.97 and 0.98, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.21 and 0.16, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.38 and 0.31, respectively. The study shows that the model effectively captures the non-linear and time-sensitive interactions between network parameters, DER variables, and weather information. This study offers valuable insights into advancing dynamic HC forecasting under real-time DOE constraints in sustainable DER integration, contributing to the global transition towards net-zero emissions. Full article

Lidar technology is a key sensor for autonomous driving due to its precise environmental perception. However, adverse weather and atmospheric conditions involving fog, rain, snow, dust, and smog can impair lidar performance, leading to potential safety risks. This paper introduces a comprehensive methodology to simulate lidar systems under such conditions and validate the results against real-world experiments. Existing empirical models for the extinction and backscattering of laser beams are analyzed, and new models are proposed for dust storms and smog, derived using Mie theory. These models are implemented in the CARLA simulator and evaluated using Robot Operating System 2 (ROS 2). The simulation methodology introduced allowed the authors to set up test experiments replicating real-world conditions, to validate the models against real-world data available in the literature, and to predict the performance of the lidar system in all weather conditions. This approach enables the development of virtual test scenarios for corner cases representing rare weather conditions to improve robustness and safety in autonomous systems. Full article

The thermal environment problem is one of the main focuses of current urban environment research. At present, there are various methods used in urban space thermal environment (USTE) research. As a simulation method to quantify the USTE, the urban weather generator (UWG) has undergone great development and achieved many progressive results. It is necessary to establish and review its current research status by synthesizing UWG multi-scale applications. This review adopts a literature review approach, leveraging the Web of Science Core Collection to obtain previous relevant publications from 2010 to 2025 using “urban weather generator” and “thermal environment” as keywords. The literature is categorized by research themes, including model development, parameter optimization, and application cases. Through innovative analyses of spatio-temporal-scale classification, parameter optimization, the integration of anthropogenic heat emissions, and the multi-domain simulation potential of the UWG, this review synthesizes the application outcomes of the UWG model in multi-scale research, addressing gaps in current urban climate studies. The paper aims to elaborate and analyze the model’s current research status considering the following six aspects. First, the basic parameters in UWG simulation are introduced, including the data and parameter determination settings used in such simulations. Secondly, we introduce the simulation model and its basic principles, the simulation process, and the main steps of this process. Third, we classify and define UWG simulations of spatial thermal environments at different time scales and spatial scales. Fourth, regarding how to improve the accuracy of the UWG model, the deterministic parameters and uncertainty parameters settings are analyzed, respectively. Then, the impacts of anthropogenic heat during the simulation process are also discussed. Fifth, the applications of the UWG model in some major fields and its possible future development directions are addressed. Finally, the existing problems are summarized, the future development trends are prospected, and research on possible expected mitigation measures for the USTE is described. Full article

Spatiotemporal correlations between meteo-inputs and wind–solar outputs in an optimal regional scale are crucial for developing robust models, reliable in mid-term prediction time horizons. Modelling border conditions is vital for early recognition of progress in chaotic atmospheric processes at the destination of interest. This approach is used in differential and deep learning; artificial intelligence (AI) techniques allow for reliable pattern representation in long-term uncertainty and regional irregularities. The proposed day-by-day estimation of the RE production potential is based on first data processing in detecting modelling initialisation times from historical databases, considering correlation distance. Optimal data sampling is crucial for AI training in statistically based predictive modelling. Differential learning (DfL) is a recently developed and biologically inspired strategy that combines numerical derivative solutions with neurocomputing. This hybrid approach is based on the optimal determination of partial differential equations (PDEs) composed at the nodes of gradually expanded binomial trees. It allows for modelling of highly uncertain weather-related physical systems using unstable RE. The main objective is to improve its self-evolution and the resulting computation in prediction time. Representing relevant patterns by their similarity factors in input–output resampling reduces ambiguity in RE forecasting. Node-by-node feature selection and dynamical PDE representation of DfL are evaluated along with long-short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent processing of deep learning (DL), capturing complex spatio-temporal patterns. Parametric C++ executable software with one-month spatial metadata records is available to compare additional modelling strategies. Full article

Understanding and mapping forest fire vulnerability is essential for informed landscape management and disaster risk reduction, especially in the context of increasing anthropogenic and climatic pressures. This study aims to model and spatially predict forest fire vulnerability across Romania using two machine learning algorithms: MaxEnt and XGBoost. We integrated forest fire occurrence data from 2006 to 2024 with a suite of climatic, topographic, ecological, and anthropogenic predictors at a 250 m spatial resolution. MaxEnt, based on presence-only data, achieved moderate predictive performance (AUC = 0.758), while XGBoost, trained on presence–absence data, delivered higher classification accuracy (AUC = 0.988). Both models revealed that the impact of environmental variables on forest fire occurrence is complex and heterogeneous, with the most influential predictors being the Fire Weather Index, forest fuel type, elevation, and distance to human proximity features. The resulting vulnerability and uncertainty maps revealed hotspots in Sub-Carpathian and lowland regions, especially in Mehedinți, Gorj, Dolj, and Olt counties. These patterns reflect historical fire data and highlight the role of transitional agro-forested landscapes. This study delivers a replicable, data-driven approach to wildfire risk modelling, supporting proactive management and emphasising the importance of integrating vulnerability assessments into planning and climate adaptation strategies. Full article

Thermal simulations of buildings play a critical role in optimizing energy efficiency, thermal comfort, and heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems design. Accurate weather data is essential for reliable simulations, as local weather and climate have a significant impact on energy requirements for space heating and cooling and thermal comfort. This study conducted a literature review regarding the sources, types, and uncertainties of weather data used for thermal simulations of buildings, including typical meteorological years (TMYs) and extreme weather files under current and future climates. Additionally, this paper evaluates methods for weather data processing, including interpolation, downscaling, and synthetic generation, to improve simulation accuracy. Finally, approaches are proposed for constructing weather files for the future and extreme conditions under a changing climate. This review aims to provide a guide for researchers and practitioners to enhance the reliability of thermal modeling through informed construction, selection, and application of weather data. Full article

This study presents an optimization framework for a utility-scale hybrid power plant (HPP) that integrates wind power plants (WPPs), solar power plants (SPPs), and battery energy storage systems (BESS) using historical and probabilistic weather modeling, regulatory incentives, and multi-objective trade-offs. By employing multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), the study simultaneously optimizes three key objectives: economic performance (maximizing net present value, NPV), system reliability (minimizing loss of power supply probability, LPSP), and operational efficiency (reducing curtailment). The optimized HPP (283 MW wind, 20 MW solar, and 500 MWh BESS) yields an NPV of $165.2 million, a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of $0.065/kWh, an internal rate of return (IRR) of 10.24%, and a 9.24-year payback, demonstrating financial viability. Operational efficiency is maintained with <4% curtailment and 8.26% LPSP. Key findings show that grid imports improve reliability (LPSP drops to 1.89%) but reduce economic returns; higher wind speeds (11.6 m/s) allow 27% smaller designs with 54.6% capacity factors; and tax credits (30%) are crucial for viability at low PPA rates (≤$0.07/kWh). Validation via Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) confirms robustness. The study improves hybrid power plant design by combining weather predictions, policy changes, and optimizing three goals, providing a flexible renewable energy option for reducing carbon emissions. Full article

The Aptian–Albian interval represents a significant cooling phase within the Cretaceous “hothouse” climate, marked by dynamic climatic fluctuations. High-resolution continental records are essential for reconstructing terrestrial climate and ecosystem evolution during this period. This study examines a lacustrine-dominated succession of the Shahezi Formation (Lishu Rift Depression, Songliao Basin, NE Asia) to access paleo-weathering intensity and paleoclimate variability between the Middle Aptian and Early Albian (c. 118.2–112.3 Ma). Multiple geochemical proxies, including the Chemical Index of Alteration (CIA), were applied within a sequence stratigraphic framework covering four stages of lake evolution. Our results indicate that a hot and humid subtropical climate predominated in the Lishu paleo-lake, punctuated by transient cooling and drying events. Periods of lake expansion corresponded to episodes of intense chemical weathering, while two distinct intervals of aridity and cooling coincided with phases of a reduced lake level and fan delta progradation. To address the impact of potassium enrichment on CIA values, we introduced a rectangular coordinate system on A(Al₂O₃)-CN(CaO* + Na₂O)-K(K₂O) ternary diagrams, enabling more accurate weathering trends and CIA corrections (CIA_corr). Uncertainties in CIA correction were evaluated by integrating geochemical and petrographic evidence from deposits affected by hydrothermal fluids and external potassium addition. Importantly, our results show that metasomatic potassium addition cannot be reliably inferred solely from deviations in A-CN-K diagrams or the presence of authigenic illite and altered plagioclase. Calculations of “excess K₂O” and CIA_corr values should only be made when supported by robust geochemical and petrographic evidence for external potassium enrichment. This work advances lacustrine paleoclimate reconstruction methodology and highlights the need for careful interpretation of weathering proxies in complex sedimentary systems. Full article

Braking systems are essential to aircraft safety and operational efficiency; however, the variability of carbon brake wear, driven by the intricate interplay of operational and environmental factors, presents challenges for effective maintenance planning. This effort leverages machine learning classifiers to predict wear severity using operational data from an airline’s wide-body fleet equipped with wear pin sensors that measure the percentage of carbon pad remaining on each brake. Aircraft-specific metrics from flight data are augmented with weather and airport parameters from FlightAware^® to better capture the operational environment. Through a systematic benchmarking of multiple classifiers, combined with structured hyperparameter tuning and uncertainty quantification, LGBM and Decision Tree models emerge as top performers, achieving predictive accuracies of up to 98.92%. The inclusion of environmental variables substantially improves model performance, with relative humidity and wind direction identified as key predictors. While machine learning has been extensively applied to predictive maintenance contexts, this work advances the field of brake wear prediction by integrating a comprehensive dataset that incorporates operational, environmental, and airport-specific features. In doing so, it addresses a notable gap in the existing literature regarding the impact of contextual variables on brake wear prediction. Full article

The increasing prevalence of extreme weather events poses significant challenges to the stability of distribution networks (DNs). To enhance the resilience of DNs against such events, a typhoon-oriented resilience framework for DNs is proposed that incorporates multiple sources of typhoon uncertainty. First, component failure probability is modeled by tracking time-sequential variations in typhoon landfall parameters, trajectory, and intensity, thereby improving the quantitative estimation of typhoon impacts. Then, the integrated component failure probability and the importance factor of bus load under disaster are combined and hierarchical analysis is performed to achieve the vulnerability identification for DNs. Next, based on the vulnerability identification results, a resilience enhancement model for DNs is constructed through the strategy of coordinating line reinforcement and energy storage configuration, and the resilience optimization scheme that takes into account the system resilience enhancement effect and economy is obtained under the optimal investment cost. Finally, analysis and verification are conducted in the IEEE 33-bus system. The results indicate that the proposed method can reduce the load loss cost of the system by 5.112 million and 0.2459 million, respectively. Full article

Dams are critical infrastructures that provide essential services such as water supply, hydroelectric power generation, and flood control. As many dams age, the risk of structural failure increases, making safety assurance more urgent than ever. Traditional monitoring systems typically employ predictive models—based on techniques such as the finite element method (FEM) or machine learning (ML)—to compare real-time data against expected performance. However, these models often rely on static warning thresholds, which fail to reflect the dynamic conditions affecting dam behavior, including fluctuating water levels, temperature variations, and extreme weather events. This study introduces an adaptive warning threshold methodology for dam safety based on kernel density estimation (KDE). The approach incorporates a boosted regression tree (BRT) model for predictive analysis, identifying influential variables such as reservoir levels and ambient temperatures. KDE is then used to estimate the density of historical data, allowing for dynamic calibration of warning thresholds. In regions of low data density—where prediction uncertainty is higher—the thresholds are widened to reduce false alarms, while in high-density regions, stricter thresholds are maintained to preserve sensitivity. The methodology was validated using data from an arch dam, demonstrating improved anomaly detection capabilities. It successfully reduced false positives in data-sparse conditions while maintaining high sensitivity to true anomalies in denser data regions. These results confirm that the proposed methodology successfully meets the goals of enhancing reliability and adaptability in dam safety monitoring. This adaptive framework offers a robust enhancement to dam safety monitoring systems, enabling more reliable detection of structural issues under variable operating conditions. Full article