Search Results (466)

Parametric tropical cyclone models are widely used to generate large wind field ensembles for assessing extreme storm tides and wave heights. The radius of maximum wind (RMW) is a key model parameter and is commonly estimated using empirical formulas. This study shows that uncertainty introduced by the choice of RMW formulas has been largely overlooked in tropical cyclone risk assessments. Using the Pearl River Estuary as a case study, historical wind fields (1981–2024) were generated with a parametric tropical cyclone model combined with eight empirical RMW formulas. Storm tides and wave heights during tropical cyclone events were simulated using a coupled wave–current model (ROMS–SWAN) and analyzed with extreme value theory. The results indicate that, for estuarine nearshore zones, the 100-year return period of water level and significant wave height vary by up to 1.26 m and 1.54 m, respectively, across all the selected RMW formulas. Joint probability analysis further shows that RMW uncertainty can shift the joint return period of the same compound storm tide and wave event from 100 years to 10 years. For an individual extreme event, differences in the RMW formula alone can produce deviations up to 2.11 m in peak storm tide levels and 3.8 m in significant wave heights. Such differences can also change the duration of extreme sea states by 13 h. These results highlight that RMW formula selection is a critical uncertainty factor, and related uncertainty should be considered in large-sample tropical cyclone hazard assessment and engineering design. Full article

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) version 4.5 was used to simulate the synoptic to mesoscale evolving atmosphere of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Hilary’s (2023) remnant passage over the southwestern United States. The atmospheric dynamic processes conducive to the precursor rain events were extensively studied to determine the effects of mid-level jetogenesis. Concurrently, the dynamics of mesoscale processes related to the interaction of TC Hilary over the complex topography of the western United States were studied with several sensitivity simulations on a nested 2 km × 2 km grid. The differential surface heating between the cloudy California coast and clear/elevated Great Basin plateau had a profound impact on the lower-mid-tropospheric mass field resulting in mid-level jetogenesis. Diagnostic analyses of the ageostrophic flow support the importance of both isallobaric and inertial advective forcing of the mid-level jetogenesis in response to differential surface sensible heating. This ageostrophic mesoscale jet ultimately transported tropical moisture in multiple plumes more than 1000 km poleward beyond the location of the extratropical transition of the storm, resulting in anomalous flooding precipitation within a massive arid western plateau. Full article

The background error covariance matrix (BE) is a fundamental component of data assimilation (DA) systems. Its impact on both the DA process and subsequent forecast performance depends on model configuration and the types of observations assimilated. However, few studies have specifically examined BE behavior in the context of satellite DA for regional tropical cyclone (TC) prediction. In this study, we develop the BE and evaluate its structure for a TC forecasting system over the western North Pacific. A total of six BEs are modeled using three control variable (CV) schemes (aligned with the CV5, CV6, and CV7 options available in the Weather Research and Forecasting DA system (WRFDA)) with training data from two distinct periods: the TC season and the winter season. Results demonstrate that the BE structure is sensitive to the training data used. The performance of TC-season BEs derived from different CV schemes is assessed for TC track forecasting through the assimilation of microwave sounder satellite brightness temperature data. The evaluation is based on a set of 14 cases from 2018 that exhibited large official track forecast errors. The CV7 BE, which uses the x- and y-direction wind components as CVs, captures finer small-scale momentum error features and yields greater forecast improvement at shorter lead-times (24 h). In contrast, the CV6 BE, which employs stream function (ψ) and unbalanced velocity potential (χ_u) as CVs, incorporates more large-scale momentum error information. The inherent multivariate couplings among analysis variables in this scheme also allow for closer fits to satellite microwave brightness temperature data, which is particularly crucial for forecasting TCs that primarily develop over oceans where conventional observations are scarce. Consequently, it enhances the large-scale environmental field more effectively and delivers superior forecast skill at longer lead times (48 h and 72 h). Full article

Due to the influence of various dynamic meteorological factors, accurate Tropical Cyclone (TC) track prediction is a significant challenge. However, current deep learning based time series prediction models fail to simultaneously capture both short-term and long-term dependencies, while also neglecting the change in meteorological environment pattern associated with TC motion. This limitation becomes particularly pronounced during sudden turning in the TC track, resulting in significant deterioration of prediction accuracy. To overcome these limitations, we propose LFInformer, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates an Informer backbone, a Frequency-Enhanced Channel Attention Mechanism (FECAM), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network for TC track prediction. The Informer backbone is underpinned by ProbSparse Self-Attention in both the encoder and the causally masked decoder, prioritizing the most informative query–key interactions to deliver robust long-range modeling and sharper detection of turning signals. FECAM enhances meteorological inputs via discrete cosine transforms, band-wise weighting, and channel-wise reweighting, then projects the enhanced signals back into the time domain to produce frequency-aware representations. The LSTM branch captures short-term variations and localized temporal dynamics through its recurrent structure. Together, these components sustain high accuracy during both steady evolution and sudden turnin. Experiments based on the JMA and IBTrACS 1951–2022 Northwest Pacific TC data show that the proposed model achieves an average absolute position error (APE) of 72.39 km, 117.72 km, 145.31 km and 168.64 km for the 6-h, 12-h, 24-h and 48-h forecasting tasks, respectively. The proposed model enhances the accuracy of TC track predictions, offering an innovative approach that optimally balances precision and efficiency in forecasting sudden turning points. Full article

Extreme autumn rainfall has become frequent due to climate change, making disaster prevention increasingly difficult. We combined a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) framework with a multimodal large language model (multimodal LLM) to automatically cluster and explain weather patterns. The multimodal LLM assists in selecting an appropriate clustering method, such as hierarchical clustering, to determine the optimal number of clusters. To enhance weather map interpretation and reduce hallucinations or uncertainty, 13 specialized prompt roles are designed to guide the model’s reasoning process. The method is applied to autumn-season data from 1960 to 2019, using weather records from the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform and the ERA5 reanalysis dataset by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The results show that three dominant weather types were identified. The identified types are typhoon with companion system (TC_NE, 51%), northeasterly pattern (NE, 30%), and tropical cyclone (TC, 19%). The developed method in this study provides a new approach for interpreting extreme weather events under changing climate conditions. Full article

Accurate weather classification plays a vital role in disaster management and minimizing economic losses. However, satellite-based weather classification remains challenging due to high inter-class similarity; the computational complexity of existing deep learning models, which limits real-time deployment on resource-constrained edge devices; and the limited interpretability of model decisions in practical environments. To address these challenges, this study proposes SatNet-B3, a quantized, lightweight deep learning framework that integrates an EfficientNetB3 backbone with custom classification layers to enable accurate and edge-deployable weather event recognition from satellite imagery. SatNet-B3 is evaluated on the LSCIDMR dataset and demonstrates high-precision performance, achieving 98.20% accuracy and surpassing existing benchmarks. Ten CNN models, including SatNet-B3, were experimented with to classify eight weather conditions, Tropical Cyclone, Extratropical Cyclone, Snow, Low Water Cloud, High Ice Cloud, Vegetation, Desert, and Ocean, with SatNet-B3 yielding the best results. The model addresses class imbalance and inter-class similarity through extensive preprocessing and augmentation, and the pipeline supports the efficient handling of high-resolution geospatial imagery. Post-training quantization reduced the model size by 90.98% while retaining accuracy, and deployment on a Raspberry Pi 4 achieved a 0.3 s inference time. Integrating explainable AI tools such as LIME and CAM enhances interpretability for intelligent climate monitoring. Full article

Many countries around the world repeatedly suffer from natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, and hurricanes due to geographical factors, including plate boundaries, tropical cyclone zones, and coastal regions. Representative examples include Hurricane Katrina, which struck the United States in 2005, and the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. Both were large-scale disasters that occurred in developed countries and caused enormous human and economic losses regardless of disaster type or location. As the occurrence of such catastrophic events remains inevitable, establishing effective preparedness and rapid response systems for large-scale disasters has become an urgent global challenge. One of the critical issues in disaster response is the rapid estimation of the number of affected individuals required for effective rescue operations. During large-scale disasters, terrestrial communication infrastructure is often rendered unusable, which severely hampers the collection of situational information. If the population within a disaster-affected area can be estimated without relying on ground-based communication networks, rescue resources can be more appropriately allocated based on the estimated number of people in need, thereby accelerating rescue operations and potentially reducing casualties. In this study, we propose a population-estimation system that remotely senses radio signals emitted from smartphones in disaster areas using Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. Through numerical analysis conducted in MATLAB R2023b, the feasibility of the proposed system is examined. The numerical results demonstrate that, under ideal conditions, the proposed system can estimate the number of smartphones within the observation area with an average error of 2.254 devices. Furthermore, an additional evaluation incorporating a 3D urban model demonstrates that the proposed system can estimate the number of smartphones with an average error of 19.03 devices. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to estimate post-disaster population using wireless LAN signals sensed by LEO satellites, offering a novel remote-sensing-based approach for rapid disaster response. Full article

Accurate typhoon track forecasting is vital for disaster mitigation in East China, a region frequently impacted by landfalling typhoons. Despite advances in numerical weather prediction, uncertainties remain high, especially within 48 h of landfall, due to complex interactions among tropical cyclones, the subtropical high, and mesoscale systems. This study applies Ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) within a high-resolution regional ensemble prediction system (Shanghai Weather And Risk Model System-Ensemble Prediction System, SWARMS-EN) to investigate forecast uncertainties of three representative typhoons—Gaemi, Bebinca, and Kong-rey—that made landfall in East China in 2024. Our results reveal consistent sensitivity patterns across diverse large-scale environments, particularly around the western flank of the subtropical high and in proximity to nearby low-pressure systems. Track uncertainty was closely tied to fluctuations in the steering flow, notably its zonal component. Moreover, binary typhoon interactions emerged as key drivers of forecast divergence. ESA effectively identified sensitive regions where small initial perturbations exert significant downstream influence on typhoon tracks. This study demonstrates the operational value of ESA for diagnosing forecast error sources and guiding targeted observations. By linking forecast uncertainty to physical mechanisms, this research enhances our understanding of typhoon predictability and supports the development of more adaptive and accurate regional forecasting systems. Full article

Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) provides all-weather, high-resolution ocean wind speed monitoring that offers additional benefits for forecasting tropical cyclones and severe weather events. However, existing GNSS-R wind retrieval models often lack interpretability and suffer accuracy degradation during high wind conditions. To address these limitations, we leverage a mathematical equivalence between Transformers and graph neural networks (GNNs) on complete graphs, which provides a physically grounded interpretation of self-attention as spatiotemporal influence propagation in GNSS-R data. In our model, each GNSS-R footprint is treated as a graph node whose multi-head self-attention weights quantify localized interactions across space and time. This aligns physical influence propagation with the computational efficiency of GPU-accelerated Transformers. Multi-head attention disentangles processes at multiple scales—capturing local (25–100 km), mesoscale (100 km–500 km), and synoptic (>500 km) circulation patterns. When applied to Level 1 Version 3.2 data (2023–2024) from four Asian sea regions, our Transformer–GNN achieves an overall wind speed RMSE reduction of 32% (to 1.35 m s⁻¹ from 1.98 m s⁻¹) and substantial gains in high-wind regimes (winds >25 m s⁻¹: 3.2 m s⁻¹ RMSE). The model is trained on ERA5 reanalysis 10 m equivalent-neutral wind fields, which serve as the primary reference dataset, with independent validation performed against Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) aircraft observations during tropical cyclone events and moored buoy measurements where spatiotemporally coincident data are available. Interpretability analysis with SHAP reveals condition-dependent feature attributions and suggests coupling mechanisms between ocean surface currents and wind fields. These results demonstrate that our model advances both predictive accuracy and interpretability in GNSS-R wind retrieval. With operationally viable inference performance, our framework offers a promising approach toward interpretable, physics-aware Earth system AI applications. Full article

Accurate simulation of boundary layer wind field structures is essential for evaluating tropical cyclone (TC) wind hazards and supporting engineering design in coastal regions. However, existing models often assume radially symmetric and homogeneous surface conditions, leading to limited accuracy near landfall where surface roughness varies significantly. This study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of four representative TC boundary layer models of M95, K01, Y21a, and Y21b, under both idealized and real TC case conditions. The idealized experiments are used to clarify the role of vertical advection and turbulent diffusion in shaping the TC boundary layer, while the landfalling case of Typhoon Mangkhut (2018) is simulated to examine the impacts of surface roughness parameterization. Results show that Y21a, which incorporates nonlinear vertical advection, produces stronger and more realistic super-gradient phenomenon than linear models of M95 and K01. Furthermore, the model of Y21b, which accounts for spatially varying drag coefficients and using a terrain-following coordinate system, successfully reproduces the asymmetric wind patterns observed in the WRF simulations during landfall, achieving the highest correlation (R = 0.93). When the spatially varying drag coefficients incorporated into the linear models, their correlation with WRF improved markedly by about 37%. These findings highlight the necessity of incorporating nonlinear advection, dynamic turbulence, and surface heterogeneity for physically consistent TC boundary layer simulations. The results provide valuable guidance for improving parametric wind field models and enhancing TC wind hazard assessments over complex coastal terrains. Full article

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can lead to significant social and economic losses, with the fisheries sector being especially vulnerable to their impacts. There is a growing need to develop new methods for impact assessment, especially as regards assessments in real time and impact forecasting. The objective of this paper was to develop an open-source, automated toolkit that can assess the impact of TCs on fishing activity by tracking changes in the number of fishing boats caused by a TC event using publicly available satellite and cyclone intensity data. The toolkit can provide retrospective analyses of how fishing activity was affected in a given country and year, and it can also nowcast/forecast likely fishing activity changes resulting from approaching or hypothetical TCs. The toolkit automates data extraction, processing, and the application of a Vector Generalized Linear Model to estimate a historical relationship between TCs and fishing activity. This relationship can then be used for nowcasting or forecasting likely TC impacts on fishing activity based on TC path, windspeed and translation speed. By providing timely, transparent, and scalable assessments of cyclone-related disruptions, the toolkit contributes to the sustainability and resilience of coastal fisheries and supports proactive risk management and informed policymaking in the face of climate-related hazards. Full article

The Dvorak technique has represented a fundamental tool for understanding the power of tropical cyclones based on their shape and geometric evolution. However, it should be noted that the Dvorak technique is purely morphological in nature and was developed for wind, not precipitation. The role of shape methods in precipitation prediction remains uncertain, particularly in the context of modern multi-sensor capabilities. This uncertainty forms the motivation for the present study. In an attempt to enrich Dvorak’s technique, this study proposes a novel hypothesis. This study tests the hypothesis that higher precipitation intensity is associated with more organized cloud-system morphology, as captured by simple geometric descriptors and indicative of dynamically coherent convection. A total of 3419 cloud-system objects (after size filter) were utilized to establish geometric relationships in each of them. For the case study of Hurricane Patricia over the Mexican coast in 2015, 3858 geometric shapes were processed. The cloud-system morphology was derived from geostationary imagery (GOES-13) and collocated with satellite precipitation estimates in order to isolate intense-rainfall objects (>50 mm/h). For each object, simple geometric descriptors were computed, and shape variability was summarised via Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The present study sought to evaluate the associations with rain-rate metrics (mean, mode, maximum) using rank correlations and k-means clustering. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses were conducted on the rain threshold and minimum object size. A Shape Descriptor: ratio between perimeter and diameter was identified as a promising tool to enhance early prediction models of extreme rainfall, contributing to enhanced meteorological risk management. The study indicates that cloud shape can serve as a valuable indicator in the classification and forecasting of intense cloud systems. Full article

Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) can be applied for monitoring tropical cyclones (TCs), but co-polarized C-band SAR suffers from signal saturation such that it is improper for high wind-speed conditions. In contrast, cross-polarized SAR data does not suffer from this issue, but the retrieval algorithm needs more deliberation. Previously, many geophysical model functions (GMFs) have been developed using cross-polarized data, which obtain wind speeds using the complex relationships described by radar backscatter, incidence angle, wind direction, and radar look direction. In this regard, the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology has provided versatile machine learning methods for such a nonlinear inversion problem. In this study, we comprehensively compare the wind-speed retrieval performance of several models including Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Deep Neural Network (DNN), which were developed based on spatio-temporal matching and correlation analysis of stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) and dual-polarized Sentinel-1 SAR data after noise removal. A data set with ~2800 samples is generated during TCs for training and validating the inversion model. The generalization ability of different models is tested by the reserved independent data. When using similar parameters with GMFs, RF inversion has the highest accuracy with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 3.40 m/s and correlation coefficient of 0.94. Furthermore, considering that the sea surface temperature is a crucial factor for generating TCs and influencing ocean backscattering, its effects on the proposed RF model are also explored, the results of which show improved wind-speed retrieval performances. Full article

Reliable forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity—particularly rapid intensification (RI) events—remains a major challenge in meteorology, largely due to the inherent difficulty of accurately quantifying predictive uncertainty. Traditional numerical approaches are computationally expensive, while statistical models often fail to capture the highly nonlinear relationships involved. Mainstream machine learning models typically provide only deterministic point forecasts and lack the ability to represent uncertainty. To address this limitation, we propose Tropical Cyclone Diffusion Model (TCDM), the first conditional diffusion-based probabilistic forecasting framework for TC intensity. TCDM integrates multimodal meteorological data, including satellite imagery, re-analysis fields, and environmental predictors, to directly generate the full probability distribution of future intensities. Experimental results show that TCDM not only achieves highly competitive deterministic accuracy (low MAE and RMSE; high $R^2$), but also delivers high-quality probabilistic forecasts (low CRPS; high PICP). Moreover, it substantially improves RI detection by achieving higher hit rates with fewer false alarms. Compared with traditional ensemble-based methods, TCDM provides a more efficient and flexible approach to probabilistic forecasting, offering valuable support for TC risk assessment and disaster preparedness. Full article

This study investigates landslide occurrence in Taiwan, a region highly susceptible to landslides due to steep mountains and frequent typhoons (TYPs). The primary objective is to understand how both geomorphological factors and TYP characteristics contribute to landslide occurrence, which is essential for improving hazard prediction and risk management. The research analyzed landslide events that occurred during the TYP seasons of 2019 and 2023. The methodology involved using satellite-derived landslide inventories from SPOT imagery for events larger than 0.1 hectares, tropical cyclone track and intensity data from IBTrACS v4 (classified by Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale), and detailed topographic variables (elevation, slope, aspect, Stream Power Index) extracted from a 30 m Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model (SRTM-DEM). Land use and land cover classifications were based on Landsat imagery. To establish a timeline, landslides were matched with TYPs within a ±3-day window, and proximity was analyzed using buffer zones ranging from 50 to 500 km around storm centers. Key findings revealed that landslide susceptibility results from a complex interplay of meteorological, topographic, and land cover factors. The critical controls identified include elevations above 2000 m, slope angles between 30 and 45 degrees, southeast- and south-facing aspects, and low Stream Power Index values typical of headwater and upper slope locations. Landslides were most frequent during Category 3 TYPs and were concentrated 300 to 350 km from storm centers, where optimal rainfall conditions for slope failures exist. Interestingly, despite the stronger storms in 2023, the number of landslides was higher in 2019. This emphasizes the importance of interannual variability and terrain preparedness. These findings support sustainable disaster risk reduction and climate-resilient development, aligning with Sustainable Development Goals 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and 13 (Climate Action). Furthermore, they provide a foundation for improving hazard assessment and risk mitigation in Taiwan and similar mountainous, TYP-prone regions. Full article