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Search Results (556)

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Keywords = socio-economic system resilience

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19 pages, 740 KB  
Article
Accelerating Literature Reviews with Multi-Database Information Systems for Financial Distress Research
by Filipe Caetano, Rute Abreu, Pedro Brioso and M. Victoria Lopez-Pérez
Systems 2026, 14(2), 181; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14020181 - 5 Feb 2026
Abstract
Literature reviews are a cornerstone of doctoral research in general, and of economic and business research, in particular. However, the exponential growth of scientific publications has made comprehensive and transparent reviews increasingly difficult. Conventional approaches, largely based on manual searches across a small [...] Read more.
Literature reviews are a cornerstone of doctoral research in general, and of economic and business research, in particular. However, the exponential growth of scientific publications has made comprehensive and transparent reviews increasingly difficult. Conventional approaches, largely based on manual searches across a small number of databases, tend to be slow, error-prone, and incomplete. As a result, they constrain the scope of inquiry and, consequently, the robustness of theory development and empirical validation. This paper proposes and analyses an information system architecture driven by research questions and keyword taxonomies to automate core tasks of the literature search phase across multiple academic databases. Focusing on the domain of corporate and municipal financial distress, the authors employ a two-stage research design. First, the theoretical analysis integrates the literature on systematic reviews, automation, and financial distress prediction to derive a set of functional and non-functional requirements. Second, the experimental analysis documents a prototype front-end application designed to accelerate the literature review. The prototype is conceptualised as a socio-technical artefact that enhances IT competences and scientific resilience by enabling more efficient, reproducible, and extensible reviews. The authors conclude by discussing the scientific, technical, professional, and societal implications of the prototype, including opportunities for intellectual-property protection and avenues for future research. Full article
15 pages, 1414 KB  
Article
Barter Beyond Markets: Informal Coordination and Rural Sustainability in Northeastern Turkey
by Saffet Karayaman
Sustainability 2026, 18(3), 1628; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18031628 - 5 Feb 2026
Abstract
This study examines the traditional food exchange practice carried out between villages in the Aşağıırmaklar basin in the Ardanuç district of Artvin and villages around Ardahan during the autumn months in the context of rural sustainability, alternative economy, and livelihood strategies. The aim [...] Read more.
This study examines the traditional food exchange practice carried out between villages in the Aşağıırmaklar basin in the Ardanuç district of Artvin and villages around Ardahan during the autumn months in the context of rural sustainability, alternative economy, and livelihood strategies. The aim of the research is to reveal the structure, functioning, and sustainability of this exchange system, which has not been documented in the literature before, in its socioeconomic, cultural, and managerial dimensions. The barter practice in question involves exchanging fruits such as apples, pears, plums, and mulberries that grow naturally in the Ardanuç region, along with molasses and dried products made from them, for wheat, barley, and various animal products grown in the surrounding villages of Ardahan. The barter process operates without any official institution, written contract, or formal organization, based on reciprocity, trust, and unwritten rules. The research was structured as an interpretive case study within the framework of a qualitative research approach. Data were obtained through semi-structured in-depth interviews and field observations with five individuals actively involved in the barter process. The collected qualitative data were analyzed to reveal the analytical dimensions through which the exchange practice functions as a strategy for life and livelihood. The findings show that food exchange offers an alternative exchange mechanism that reduces food waste in rural areas and utilizes local production surpluses. Furthermore, it was found that the practice is sustained within an informal yet functional coordination structure that adapts to geographical and seasonal conditions, and is transmitted across generations through social relationships based on mutual trust. The study highlights the strategic importance of non-market exchange practices in rural areas in terms of sustainability, local economy, and community resilience. Full article
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40 pages, 605 KB  
Review
Xanthomonas spp.: Devastating Plant Pathogens and Sustainable Management Strategies
by Kamran Shah, Yanbing Guo, Muhammad Adnan and Hongzhi Wu
Pathogens 2026, 15(2), 175; https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens15020175 - 5 Feb 2026
Abstract
The genus Xanthomonas comprises devastating plant pathogens responsible for significant yield losses in globally critical crops such as rice (Oryza sativa L.), citrus (Citrus L. spp.), cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz), and tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.). This review synthesizes current [...] Read more.
The genus Xanthomonas comprises devastating plant pathogens responsible for significant yield losses in globally critical crops such as rice (Oryza sativa L.), citrus (Citrus L. spp.), cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz), and tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.). This review synthesizes current knowledge on the molecular mechanisms driving Xanthomonas pathogenicity, including the type III secretion system (T3SS) that translocates effector proteins, transcription activator-like effectors (TALEs) that reprogram host transcription, and extracellular polysaccharides (EPS) that promote biofilm formation and immune evasion, which collectively enable host colonization, immune suppression, and disease progression. Rapid adaptation through genomic plasticity and horizontal gene transfer (HGT) exacerbates challenges in disease management by facilitating evasion of host defenses and environmental stressors. Economically, Xanthomonas spp. inflict billions in annual losses through crop damage, trade restrictions, and eradication efforts, disproportionately affecting resource-limited regions. Emerging antibiotic resistance and climate-driven shifts in pathogen distribution further threaten food security. Sustainable strategies, such as CRISPR-based genome editing to disrupt susceptibility genes, biocontrol agents (e.g., Bacillus and Pseudomonas spp.), and nanotechnology-driven antimicrobials offer promising alternatives to conventional copper-based and chemical controls. This review underscores the urgent need for integrated, climate-resilient management approaches to mitigate the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of Xanthomonas diseases, bridging genomic insights with innovative control measures, to address escalating threats posed by these pathogens in a changing global climate. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Bacterial Pathogens)
20 pages, 679 KB  
Article
Assessing the Resilience of Regenerative Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: A Scenario-Based Systemic Analysis Framework
by Ana-Maria Nicolau, Augustin Semenescu and Petruţa Petcu
Agriculture 2026, 16(3), 374; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16030374 - 5 Feb 2026
Abstract
Regenerative agriculture (RA) offers a critical pathway for climate change mitigation and adaptation, yet its implementation is often hindered by conceptual ambiguity and a lack of standardized assessment frameworks. This study employs a comparative systemic analysis, integrated with a Failure Mode and Effects [...] Read more.
Regenerative agriculture (RA) offers a critical pathway for climate change mitigation and adaptation, yet its implementation is often hindered by conceptual ambiguity and a lack of standardized assessment frameworks. This study employs a comparative systemic analysis, integrated with a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) framework, to evaluate the resilience of medium-sized RA farms (50–200 ha)—a segment representing the professional backbone of European agriculture—under varying infrastructural and policy conditions. By synthesizing recent standardized metrics from the global literature, the research constructs three operational contexts: Context A (Integrated High-Performance), characterized by robust support and digital monitoring; Context B (Transitional/Fragmented), reflecting partial adoption with limited resources; and Context C (Maladaptive), representing systemic barriers. The results reveal a significant “Resilience Gap” between theoretical potential and practical reality. Specifically, the analysis identifies that ecological practices alone (e.g., cover cropping, no-till) are insufficient to guarantee economic resilience without the support of Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems. In transitional contexts, the inability to verify ecosystem services prevents farmers from accessing financial buffers, rendering the system vulnerable to climate shocks. This study concludes that enhancing RA resilience requires a paradigmatic shift from practice-based subsidies to outcome-based incentives, underpinned by accessible MRV technologies and standardized socio-economic indicators. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Agricultural Systems and Management)
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28 pages, 4585 KB  
Article
Circular Strategies for Protected Areas: Valorization and Recycling of Forest Resources in the Madonie Park (Italy)
by Katia Fabbricatti, Annalisa Giampino, Antonella Mamì, Grazia Napoli, Elvira Nicolini and Francesca Romano
Sustainability 2026, 18(3), 1552; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18031552 - 3 Feb 2026
Viewed by 34
Abstract
The emerging concept of circular parks positions protected areas as active generators of shared value, as they integrate biodiversity conservation with natural resource optimization, local economies, and social cohesion. This perspective challenges traditional passive management by applying circular economy principles to parks as [...] Read more.
The emerging concept of circular parks positions protected areas as active generators of shared value, as they integrate biodiversity conservation with natural resource optimization, local economies, and social cohesion. This perspective challenges traditional passive management by applying circular economy principles to parks as dynamic territorial organisms embedded within a regional socio-ecological metabolism. The research explores and tests circular park approaches starting from forest-related resource flows in areas where ecological richness coexists with socio-economic fragility. Focusing on the case study of the Madonie Regional Park (Sicily, Italy), the research investigates alternative pathways for the reuse of retrievable biomass by relating material flows to local social, economic, and cultural activities potentially involved in circular processes. This study supports the design of recycling, repurpose, and re-vision strategies to transform residual biomass into regenerative local value and strengthen the territorial resilience in inner areas characterized by demographic fragility despite being endowed with significant environmental and cultural capital. Through a design-oriented approach, the research experiments with alternative circular strategies in a case study, proposing a shift from extractive and mono-output models towards multi-output approaches and from an energy-centered towards a community-centered model. This perspective emerges not only as a cultural challenge but also as an opportunity to build an operational and replicable planning practice within the Italian and European park system, contributing to the debate on the ecological transition of fragile territories. Full article
17 pages, 912 KB  
Article
The Smart Readiness Indicator as a Conceptual Framework for Sustainable Building Decarbonisation and Digitalisation Governance
by Alessandra Gugliandolo, Luca La Notte, Alessandro Lorenzo Palma and Biagio Di Pietra
Sustainability 2026, 18(3), 1532; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18031532 - 3 Feb 2026
Viewed by 43
Abstract
The decarbonisation of the construction sector represents a central pillar of sustainable development strategies, contributing simultaneously to climate change mitigation, energy efficiency, energy security, and long-term socio-economic resilience. In this context, the European regulatory framework increasingly recognises the role of digitalisation and smart [...] Read more.
The decarbonisation of the construction sector represents a central pillar of sustainable development strategies, contributing simultaneously to climate change mitigation, energy efficiency, energy security, and long-term socio-economic resilience. In this context, the European regulatory framework increasingly recognises the role of digitalisation and smart technologies in improving building performance beyond static energy efficiency indicators. The Smart Readiness Indicator (SRI), introduced in Energy Performance of Buildings Directive IV (EPBD), is designed to evaluate a building’s ability to optimise energy usage, adapt to the needs of its occupants, and interact intelligently with energy networks through automation and control systems. However, the scientific literature has only partially explored its potential contribution to sustainability-oriented decision-making and decarbonisation governance. This study adopts a conceptual and methodological research approach to investigate the role of the SRI as a sustainability-oriented assessment and governance tool for building decarbonisation. The paper develops a multi-scale analytical framework based on a structured synthesis of the scientific literature, European policy documents and evidence emerging from national SRI test phases. The framework systematically links smart readiness functionalities with digital modelling tools, automation systems, and decarbonisation objectives across building, system, and policy levels. The results highlight that the SRI can be interpreted not only as a descriptive rating scheme, but also as a strategic instrument for assessing sustainability, capable of supporting environmentally, economically, and operationally sustainable decision-making in the built environment. This study contributes to the advancement of sustainability assessment tools that enable the monitoring, governance and long-term decarbonisation of the building stock in line with European climate and sustainability goals by reframing the SRI within a digital and decarbonisation-oriented methodological perspective. Full article
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9 pages, 268 KB  
Perspective
Prevention as a Pillar of Communicable Disease Control: Strategies for Equity, Surveillance, and One Health Integration
by Giovanni Genovese, Caterina Elisabetta Rizzo, Linda Bartucciotto, Serena Maria Calderone, Francesco Loddo, Francesco Leonforte, Antonio Mistretta, Raffaele Squeri and Cristina Genovese
Epidemiologia 2026, 7(1), 19; https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia7010019 - 3 Feb 2026
Viewed by 49
Abstract
Global health faces unprecedented challenges driven by communicable diseases, which are increasingly amplified by persistent health inequities, the impact of climate change, and the speed of emerging crises. Prevention is not merely a component but the foundational strategy for an effective, sustainable, and [...] Read more.
Global health faces unprecedented challenges driven by communicable diseases, which are increasingly amplified by persistent health inequities, the impact of climate change, and the speed of emerging crises. Prevention is not merely a component but the foundational strategy for an effective, sustainable, and fiscally responsible public health response. This paper delves into the pivotal role of core prevention levers: robust vaccination programs, stringent hygiene standards, advanced epidemiological surveillance, and targeted health education. We detail how contemporary technological advancements, including Artificial Intelligence (AI), big data analytics, and genomics, are fundamentally reshaping infectious disease management, enabling superior predictive capabilities, faster early warning systems, and personalized prevention models. Furthermore, we thoroughly examine the imperative of integrating the One Health approach, which formally recognizes the close, interdependent links between human, animal, and environmental health as critical for combating complex threats like zoonoses and Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR). Despite significant scientific progress, persistent socio-economic disparities, the pervasive influence of health-related misinformation (infodemics), and structural weaknesses in global preparedness underscore the urgent need for decisive international cooperation and equitable financing models. We conclude that only through integrated, multidisciplinary, and resource-equitable strategies can the global community ensure effective prevention, mitigate severe socio-economic disruption, and successfully build resilient healthcare systems capable of withstanding future global health threats. Full article
24 pages, 4571 KB  
Article
Application and Assessment of a CA-ANN Model for Land Use Change Simulation and Multi-Temporal Prediction in Guiyang City, China
by Lanjun Hu, Xiaoqi Duan and Jianhao Liu
Sustainability 2026, 18(3), 1518; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18031518 - 3 Feb 2026
Viewed by 67
Abstract
Land use and land cover change (LULC) is a critical catalyst for global climate patterns, environmental conditions, and ecological dynamics. Remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) methods have accelerated research on the impacts and variability of climate change. In ecologically sensitive karst [...] Read more.
Land use and land cover change (LULC) is a critical catalyst for global climate patterns, environmental conditions, and ecological dynamics. Remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) methods have accelerated research on the impacts and variability of climate change. In ecologically sensitive karst regions, LULC poses significant challenges to sustainable urbanization. As a representative karst mountain city in China, Guiyang has undergone rapid spatial transformation, yet quantitative studies on its long-term LULC trajectories within an integrated spatial modeling framework remain insufficient. This study analyzed LULC dynamics in Guiyang from 2007 to 2022 and projected changes for 2027, 2032, 2037, and 2042. Using the CA-ANN model within the QGIS MOLUSCE plugin, we calibrated the model with multi-temporal LULC data and nine spatial drivers, including topographic, proximity, and socioeconomic factors. The model structure was optimized through iterative testing, resulting in a final configuration of 8 hidden layers and 500 iterations. This setup achieved high validation accuracy during training, with a hindcast simulation overall accuracy of 84.42% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.73 for simulating the 2022 land cover. Future projections indicate that impervious surfaces will continue to expand in a spatially constrained manner, reaching 332.82 km2 by 2042, while shrubland area will sharply decrease to 10.75 km2. Cultivated land and forest areas show relative stability with fluctuations. The projected patterns may exacerbate risks associated with surface runoff and ecological fragmentation due to established linkages between land use/cover change and ecosystem services. Through spatially explicit, multi-temporal scenario simulations, the findings underscore the urgent need in Guiyang’s unique karst setting to deeply integrate land-use planning with ecological conservation strategies, so as to strengthen regional ecological resilience. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Environmental Sustainability and Applications)
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19 pages, 1908 KB  
Review
Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through Sustainable Animal-Source Food Production
by Sadhana Ojha, Rishav Kumar, Meena Goswami, Vikas Pathak, Kritima Kapoor and Mukesh Gangwar
Challenges 2026, 17(1), 7; https://doi.org/10.3390/challe17010007 - 2 Feb 2026
Viewed by 83
Abstract
Livestock contributes to economic stability and food security by providing income, employment, and nutrient-dense animal-source foods, particularly in low- and middle-income regions. However, the sector is also a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, primarily methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide, raising [...] Read more.
Livestock contributes to economic stability and food security by providing income, employment, and nutrient-dense animal-source foods, particularly in low- and middle-income regions. However, the sector is also a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, primarily methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide, raising growing environmental and public health concerns. This review synthesizes current evidence on strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from livestock systems while safeguarding productivity, food security, and human health. Emphasis is placed on the need to balance supply-side mitigation measures with demand-side interventions to avoid unintended nutritional and socio-economic consequences. Key supply-side approaches discussed include genetic improvement, optimized feeding strategies, manure and land resource management, and system-level efficiency gains. Demand-side strategies include food loss and waste reduction, shifts toward sustainable dietary patterns, and the development of alternative protein sources. Central to this review is the integration of these approaches within a planetary health framework, highlighting the interconnectedness of environmental sustainability, human and animal health, and socio-economic resilience. The review underscores that mitigation policies should be context-specific, equity-focused, and health-centered to ensure that climate goals are met without compromising access to affordable, nutritious foods. Collectively, the evidence indicates that coordinated policy action across production, consumption, and health systems is essential for achieving sustainable animal-source food production with reduced climate impact. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Food Solutions for Health and Sustainability)
21 pages, 1420 KB  
Article
Cascading Effects Analysis: Methodological Reflections for Managing Compound Urban Crises
by Tanja Schnittfinke
Land 2026, 15(2), 247; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15020247 - 31 Jan 2026
Viewed by 128
Abstract
Urban crises rarely occur in isolation but emerge as interconnected disruptions across space, time, and institutions. The COVID-19 pandemic intensified existing vulnerabilities and intersected with other crises, producing cascading effects. This paper asks how cascading effects analysis can be used as a planning-oriented [...] Read more.
Urban crises rarely occur in isolation but emerge as interconnected disruptions across space, time, and institutions. The COVID-19 pandemic intensified existing vulnerabilities and intersected with other crises, producing cascading effects. This paper asks how cascading effects analysis can be used as a planning-oriented method to map and govern compound urban crises, drawing on case studies from Cape Town, Dortmund, and São Paulo. In Cape Town, South Africa, the pandemic intersected with high HIV and tuberculosis rates and load shedding, straining health and social services. In Dortmund, Germany, COVID-19’s economic disruptions overlapped with an energy price crisis, while in São Paulo, Brazil, lockdowns coincided with increased gender-based violence and constrained access to support services. Together, these cases show how pre-existing socio-political and economic conditions shape the impacts of crises, exacerbating marginalization and deepening systemic inequalities. Cascading effects analysis is used to visualize and address interdependencies in compound crises, helping planners move beyond sectoral silos, identify key intervention points for crisis management, and support more resilient and equitable urban planning. The paper calls for a methodological shift in urban crisis research toward tools that better communicate systemic risk and bridge risk assessment, social vulnerability, and planning practice. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Planning in a Time of Crisis)
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21 pages, 2627 KB  
Perspective
Embodied Neuroplasticity: Exploring Biological and Molecular Pathways of Inner Development for Planetary Health
by Karen B. Kirkness
Challenges 2026, 17(1), 6; https://doi.org/10.3390/challe17010006 - 30 Jan 2026
Viewed by 181
Abstract
Understanding how inner development capacities are embodied at biological levels remains an underexplored dimension of planetary health research. The aim of this viewpoint is to provide transdisciplinary integration across neuroscience, cell biology, education, and social systems toward addressing planetary health challenges. Despite growing [...] Read more.
Understanding how inner development capacities are embodied at biological levels remains an underexplored dimension of planetary health research. The aim of this viewpoint is to provide transdisciplinary integration across neuroscience, cell biology, education, and social systems toward addressing planetary health challenges. Despite growing recognition of the Inner Development Goals (IDG) framework as complementary to the UN Sustainable Development Goals, the biophysical dynamics underlying personal and collective transformation remain largely unexplored. This viewpoint presents key molecular pathways that may underpin the Embodied Neuroplastic Resilience Model (ENRM) via calcium signaling and hyaluronan (the CHA axis). This viewpoint explores educational and therapeutic implications while simultaneously illuminating how socioeconomic inequalities constrain access to neuroplasticity-supporting practices. Four key conclusions emerge: (1) The CHA axis provides a compelling mechanistic framework for understanding how bodily experiences can reshape neural circuits through calcium signaling and hyaluronic acid matrix dynamics; (2) Mapping molecular mechanisms to complex human inner development capacities remains provisional, requiring further interdisciplinary investigation; (3) Socioeconomic inequality creates structural barriers to neuroplasticity and inner development, necessitating an integrated approach that connects mechanistic understanding with equitable access to transformative practices; (4) Enhanced understanding of embodied neuroplasticity must serve compassion and systemic transformation, moving beyond individual optimization toward collective well-being. By bridging neuroscience and sustainability frameworks, this viewpoint calls for a nuanced understanding of inner development that transcends individual optimization and emphasizes collective transformation. Full article
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20 pages, 3914 KB  
Article
Legume-Based Rotations Reduce Cereal Yield Loss and Water Use to Enhance System Yield Resilience in Response to Climate Change
by Bo Wang, Xiaolin Yang, Jos van Dam, Tiegui Nan, Taisheng Du, Shaozhong Kang and Coen Ritsema
Agriculture 2026, 16(3), 335; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16030335 - 29 Jan 2026
Viewed by 179
Abstract
Climate change significantly challenges efforts to maintain and improve crop production worldwide. Diversified crop rotations have emerged as a promising way to adapt cropping systems and bolster food security under changing climate conditions; however, robust empirical evidence remains limited. This study evaluates the [...] Read more.
Climate change significantly challenges efforts to maintain and improve crop production worldwide. Diversified crop rotations have emerged as a promising way to adapt cropping systems and bolster food security under changing climate conditions; however, robust empirical evidence remains limited. This study evaluates the long-term performance of diversified crop rotations under future climate scenarios in the North China Plain via an 80-year scenario analysis (2020–2100) spanning three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs:126, 370, 585). The calibrated and validated SWAP (Soil–Water–Atmosphere–Plant)–WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudies) model simulated water consumption and yield. Sustainability indices were employed to assess the cereal yield stability and compensation effect to yield loss caused by climate change. The study compares the conventional winter wheat–summer maize rotation (WM) with two legume-based rotations: soybean–WM (S–WM) and peanut–WM (P–WM). The results indicate that, under all three climate scenarios, the two legume-based rotations reduced annual water consumption by 7–9%, maintained system economic equivalent yields with one crop less, and improved water productivity by up to 10%. Future climate change decreased cereal yields by 9–26% across all rotations compared to historical baselines. However, the two legume-based rotations showed a significant residual effect, increasing subsequent cereal yields by 9–14% over the conventional WM under all scenarios. Consequently, the legume-based rotations provided a 25–51% yield compensation. Additionally, these rotations improved the sustainable yield index and system resilience and reduced cereal yield variance under future climate scenarios compared to the more vulnerable WM. This study demonstrates that diversified crop rotations are a viable strategy to mitigate negative climate impacts. The study provides critical insights for policy-makers, supporting crop-rotation diversification as a core component of risk-reduction strategies to mitigate future climate change impacts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Agricultural Systems and Management)
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25 pages, 1867 KB  
Article
Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Systems Thinking, Feedback Loops, and Romania’s FDI Premium
by Andrei Hrebenciuc, Silvia-Elena Iacob, Laurențiu-Gabriel Frâncu, Diana Andreia Hristache, Monica Maria Dobrescu, Raluca Andreea Popa, Alexandra Constantin and Maxim Cetulean
Systems 2026, 14(2), 136; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14020136 - 28 Jan 2026
Viewed by 187
Abstract
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has often been cast as a straightforward engine of growth, yet its record across Central and Eastern Europe tells a more tangled story where outcomes hinge on the interplay of education, governance, and the timing of external shocks. This [...] Read more.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has often been cast as a straightforward engine of growth, yet its record across Central and Eastern Europe tells a more tangled story where outcomes hinge on the interplay of education, governance, and the timing of external shocks. This study embeds fixed effects panel econometrics within a systems framework, treating FDI as a subsystem of socio-economic dynamics. Using a long-run panel of eleven economies from 2000 to 2023, the analysis models path dependence and regime shifts through interaction terms and period-specific dummies set against a systems-thinking backdrop. The analysis shows that for the average CEE economy, FDI’s contribution has waxed and waned: it dragged on growth during the early transition years (2000–2007), settled into a neutral role after the global financial crisis, and proved unpredictable in the pandemic era. Romania stands out, however, with a marked “FDI premium” quantified as approximately 0.7 pp of growth per pp of FDI that seems to stem from reinforcing loops between rising tertiary enrolment and productivity spillovers. Mapping these feedbacks brings to light virtuous circles where human capital and resilience make or break the benefits of foreign capital. The policy message is plain: nurture the positive loops through investment in skills and firm linkages, keep institutions nimble enough to adapt, and watch for early warning signs of systemic strain. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Systems Thinking and Modelling in Socio-Economic Systems)
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22 pages, 6641 KB  
Article
A System Dynamics Approach to Integrating Climate Resilience and Water Productivity to Attain Water Resource Sustainability
by Bijan Nazari, Elahe Kanani, Arezoo Kazemi, Hossein Hamidifar and Michael Nones
Water 2026, 18(3), 320; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18030320 - 27 Jan 2026
Viewed by 174
Abstract
This study develops an integrated methodological framework coupling CMIP6 climate projections with a socio-economic-hydrological System Dynamics (SD) model to evaluate adaptation strategies for agricultural resilience. Applied to the Qazvin Plain aquifer in Iran, the model demonstrates high fidelity in capturing hydrological–human interactions, evidenced [...] Read more.
This study develops an integrated methodological framework coupling CMIP6 climate projections with a socio-economic-hydrological System Dynamics (SD) model to evaluate adaptation strategies for agricultural resilience. Applied to the Qazvin Plain aquifer in Iran, the model demonstrates high fidelity in capturing hydrological–human interactions, evidenced by a 97% correlation between simulated and observed groundwater levels. The system was developed using long-term meteorological drivers (1993–2024) and calibrated against observed socio-hydrological data for the period 2006–2024 and projected to 2062 under multiple CMIP6 scenarios, identifying SSP245 and SSP126 as the most accurate predictors for regional precipitation and temperature, respectively. Modeling outcomes indicate that aridity will intensify across all scenarios; specifically, under current water-use patterns, groundwater storage is projected to decline by 24.5%, 25.4%, and 27.6% by 2041 under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, respectively. However, the simulation reveals that integrating demand-side management with crop pattern optimization can stabilize the aquifer and boost agricultural value added by 7.4%. The findings further highlight that a 48% reduction in current groundwater withdrawals is essential to reach a sustainable threshold of 781 million m3. These quantitative insights suggest that while climatic pressures are increasing, human-driven management remains the decisive factor, provided that economic tools and smart monitoring are prioritized for long-term sustainability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management, Policy and Governance)
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27 pages, 14018 KB  
Article
Multi-Crop Yield Estimation and Spatial Analysis of Agro-Climatic Indices Based on High-Resolution Climate Simulations in Türkiye’s Lakes Region, a Typical Mediterranean Biogeography
by Fuat Kaya, Sinan Demir, Mert Dedeoğlu, Levent Başayiğit, Yurdanur Ünal, Cemre Yürük Sonuç, Tuğba Doğan Güzel and Ece Gizem Çakmak
Agronomy 2026, 16(3), 321; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy16030321 - 27 Jan 2026
Viewed by 281
Abstract
Mediterranean biogeography is characterized as a global “hotspot” for climate change; understanding the impacts of these changes on local agricultural systems through high-resolution analyses has thus become a critical need. This study addresses this gap by evaluating the holistic effects of climate change [...] Read more.
Mediterranean biogeography is characterized as a global “hotspot” for climate change; understanding the impacts of these changes on local agricultural systems through high-resolution analyses has thus become a critical need. This study addresses this gap by evaluating the holistic effects of climate change on site-specific agriculture systems, focusing on the Eğirdir–Karacaören (EKB) and Beyşehir (BB) lake basins in the Lakes Region of Türkiye. This study employed machine learning modeling techniques to forecast changes in the yields of key crops, such as wheat, maize, apple, alfalfa, and sugar beet. Detailed spatial analyses of changes in agro-climatic conditions (heat stress, chilling requirement, frost days, and growing degree days for key crops) between the reference period (1995–2014) and two decadal periods projected for 2040–2049 and 2070–2079 were conducted under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3-7.0). Daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and solar radiation data, derived from high-resolution climate simulations, were aggregated into annual summaries. These datasets were then spatially matched with district-level yield statistics obtained from the official data providers to construct crop-specific data matrices. For each crop, Random Forest (RF) regression models were fitted, and a Leave-One-Site-Out (LOSOCV) cross-validation method was used to evaluate model performance during the reference period. Yield prediction models were evaluated using the mean absolute error (MAE). The models achieved low MAE values for wheat (33.95 kg da−1 in EKB and 75.04 kg da−1 in BB), whereas the MAE values for maize and alfalfa were considerably higher, ranging from 658 to 986 kg da−1. Projections for future periods indicate declines in relative yield across both basins. For 2070–2079, wheat and maize yields are projected to decrease by 10–20%, accompanied by wide uncertainty intervals. Both basins are expected to experience a substantial increase in heat stress days (>35 °C), a reduction in frost days, and an overall acceleration of plant phenology. Results provided insights to inform region-specific, evidence-based adaptation options, such as selecting heat-tolerant varieties, optimizing planting calendars, and integrating precision agriculture practices to improve resource efficiency under changing climatic conditions. Overall, this study establishes a scientific basis for enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change in two lake basins within the Mediterranean biogeography. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Agroclimatology and Crop Production: Adapting to Climate Change)
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