Search Results (2,049)

The city of Acapulco was impacted by two near-consecutive hurricanes. On 25 October 2023, Hurricane Otis made landfall, reaching the highest Category 5 storm on the Saffir–Simpson scale, causing extensive coastal destruction due to extreme winds and waves. Nearly one year later (23 September 2024), Hurricane John—a Category 2 storm—caused severe flooding despite its lower intensity, primarily due to its unusual trajectory and prolonged rainfall. Digital shoreline analysis of PlanetScope images (captured one month before and after Hurricane Otis) revealed that the southern coast of Acapulco, specifically Zona Diamante—where the major seafront hotels are located—experienced substantial shoreline erosion (94 ha) and damage. In the northwestern section of the study area, the Coyuca Bar experienced the most dramatic geomorphological change in surface area. This was primarily due to the complete disappearance of the bar on October 26, which resulted in a shoreline retreat of 85 m immediately after the passage of Hurricane Otis. Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) showed that Hurricane John inundated 2385 ha, four times greater than Hurricane Otis’s flooding (567 ha). The retrofitted QGIS methodology demonstrated high reliability when compared to limited in situ local reports. Given the increased frequency of intense hurricanes, these methods and findings will be relevant in other coastal areas for monitoring and managing local communities affected by severe climate events. Full article

This study introduces a novel methodology for assessing ice-jam flood hazards along river channels. It employs empirical equations that relate non-dimensional ice-jam stage to discharge, enabling the generation of an ensemble of longitudinal profiles of ice-jam backwater levels through Monte-Carlo simulations. These simulations produce non-exceedance probability profiles, which indicate the likelihood of various flood levels occurring due to ice jams. The flood levels associated with specific return periods were validated using historical gauge records. The empirical equations require input parameters such as channel width, slope, and thalweg elevation, which were obtained from bathymetric surveys. This approach is applied to assess ice-jam flood hazards by extrapolating data from a gauged reach at Fort Simpson to an ungauged reach at Jean Marie River along the Mackenzie River in Canada’s Northwest Territories. The analysis further suggests that climate change is likely to increase the severity of ice-jam flood hazards in both reaches by the end of the century. This methodology is applicable to other cold-region rivers in Canada and northern Europe, provided similar fluvial geomorphological and hydro-meteorological data are available, making it a valuable tool for ice-jam flood risk assessment in other ungauged areas. Full article

This paper presents a Systematic Mapping Study (SMS) on data-driven approaches in flood forecasting from 2019 to 2024, a period marked by transformative developments in Deep Learning (DL) technologies. Analysing 363 selected studies, this paper provides an overview of the technological evolution in this field, methodological approaches, evaluation practices and geographical distribution of studies. The study revealed that meteorological and hydrological factors constitute approximately 76% of input variables, with rainfall/precipitation and water level measurements forming the core predictive basis. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks emerged as the dominant algorithm (21% of implementations), whilst hybrid and ensemble approaches showed the most dramatic growth (from 2% in 2019 to 10% in 2024). The study also revealed a threefold increase in publications during this period, with significant geographical concentration in East and Southeast Asia (56% of studies), particularly China (36%). Several research gaps were identified, including limited exploration of graph-based approaches for modelling spatial relationships, underutilisation of transfer learning for data-scarce regions, and insufficient uncertainty quantification. This SMS provides researchers and practitioners with actionable insights into current trends, methodological practices, and future directions in data-driven flood forecasting, thereby advancing this critical field for disaster management. Full article

In Taiwan, hydro-meteorological data are fragmented across multiple agencies, limiting the effectiveness of coordinated flood response. To address this challenge and the increasing uncertainty associated with extreme rainfall, a real-time disaster prevention platform has been developed. This system integrates multi-source data and geospatial information through a cluster-based architecture to enhance pluvial flood management. Built on a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) and incorporating Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, AI-based convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and 3D drone mapping, the platform enables automated alerts by linking sensor thresholds with real-time environmental data, facilitating synchronized operational responses. Deployed in New Taipei City over the past three years, the system has demonstrably reduced flood risk during severe rainfall events. Region-specific action thresholds and adaptive strategies are continually refined through feedback mechanisms, while integrated spatial and hydrological trend analyses extend the lead time available for emergency response. Full article

Recent climate changes have led to an increase in flood intensity, often resulting in frequent levee overtopping, which causes significant human and property damage. High vulnerability to such breaches is expected in general, especially at river curves. This study aims to predict the occurrence of levee overtopping at these critical points and to suggest a curve, the levee overtopping risk curve, to assess overtopping probabilities. For this purpose, several dimensionless parameters, such as superelevation relative to levee height ($∆$y/H) and the channel’s Froude number, were examined. Based on dimensional analysis, a relationship was developed, and the levee overtopping curve was finally proposed. The accuracy of this curve was validated through numerical analysis using a selected levee case, which clearly distinguished between safe and risky conditions for levee overtopping. The curve is designed for immediate integration into the hydraulic design processes, providing engineers with a reliable method for optimizing levee design to mitigate overtopping risks. It also serves as a critical decision-making tool in flood risk management, particularly for urban planning and infrastructure development in areas prone to flooding. Full article

Flooding due to dam failures is a critical issue with significant impacts on human safety, infrastructure, and the environment. This study assessed the potential flood hazard that could be generated from breaching of the Alacranes dam in Villa Clara, Cuba. Thirteen reservoir breaching scenarios were simulated under several criteria for modeling the flood wave through the 2D Saint Venant equations using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). A sensitivity analysis was performed on Manning’s roughness coefficient, demonstrating a low variability of the model outputs for these events. The results show that, for all modeled scenarios, the terrain topography of the coastal plain expands the flood wave, reaching a maximum width of up to 105,057 km. The most critical scenario included a 350 m breach in just 0.67 h. Flood, velocity, and hazard maps were generated, identifying populated areas potentially affected by the flooding events. The reported depths, velocities, and maximum flows could pose extreme danger to infrastructure and populated areas downstream. These types of studies are crucial for both risk assessment and emergency planning in the event of a potential dam breach. Full article

Selecting an appropriate model for discharge simulation remains a fundamental challenge in modeling. While artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely accepted due to detecting streamflow patterns, they require large datasets for efficient training. However, when short-term datasets are available, training ANNs becomes problematic. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models offer a promising alternative; however, severe volatility, nonlinearity, and trends in hydrological time series can still lead to significant errors. To address these challenges, this study introduces a new adaptive hybrid model, ARIMA-iGARCH, designed to account volatility, variance inconsistency, and nonlinear behavior in short-term hydrological datasets. We apply the model to four hourly discharge time series from the Schwarzbach River at the Nauheim gauge in Hesse, Germany, under the assumption of normally distributed residuals. The results demonstrate that the specialized parameter estimation method achieves lower complexity and higher accuracy. For the four events analyzed, R² values reached 0.99, 0.96, 0.99, and 0.98; RMSE values were 0.031, 0.091, 0.023, and 0.052. By delivering accurate short-term discharge predictions, the ARIMA-iGARCH model provides a basis for enhancing water resource planning and flood risk management. Overall, the model significantly improves modeling long memory, nonlinear, nonstationary shifts in short-term hydrological datasets by effectively capturing fluctuations in variance. Full article

In the Chan Buddhism koan (gong’an 公案) tradition, the act of “slaying the snake” functions as a signature gesture imbued with complex, historically layered cultural meanings. Rather than merely examining its motivations, this paper emphasizes tracing the semantic transformations that this motif has undergone across different historical contexts. It argues that “snake-slaying” operated variously as an imperial narrative strategy reinforcing ruling class ideology; as a form of popular resistance by commoners against flood-related disasters; as a dietary practice among aristocrats and literati seeking danyao (elixirs) 丹藥 for reclusion and transcendence; and ultimately, within the Chan tradition, as a method of spiritual cultivation whereby masters sever desires rooted in attachment to both selfhood and the Dharma. More specifically, first, as an imperial narrative logic, snake-slaying embodied exemplary power: both Liu Bang 劉邦 and Guizong 歸宗 enacted this discursive strategy, with Guizong’s legitimacy in slaying the snake deriving from the precedent set by Liu Bang. Second, as a folk strategy of demystification, snake-slaying acquired a moral aura—since the snake was perceived as malevolent force, their slaying appeared righteous and heroic. Finally, as a mode of self-cultivation among the aristocracy, snake-slaying laid the groundwork for its later internalization. In Daoism, slaying the snake was a means of cultivating the body; in Chan Buddhism, the act is elevated to a higher plane—becoming a way of cultivating the mind. This transformation unfolded naturally, as if predestined. In all cases, the internalization of the snake-slaying motif was not an overnight development: the cultural genes that preceded its appearance in the Chan tradition provided the fertile ground for its karmic maturation and discursive proliferation. Full article

Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is vital for effective water resource management. Reliable forecasts enable operators to optimize storage and release strategies to meet competing sectoral demands—such as water supply, irrigation, and hydropower scheduling—while also mitigating flood and drought risks. To address this need, in this study, we propose a novel time-variant encoder–decoder (ED) model designed specifically to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting, enabling accurate predictions of reservoir inflows up to seven days ahead. Unlike conventional ED-LSTM and recursive ED-LSTM models, which use fixed encoder parameters or recursively propagate predictions, our model incorporates an adaptive encoder structure that dynamically adjusts to evolving conditions at each forecast horizon. Additionally, we introduce the Expected Baseline Integrated Gradients (EB-IGs) method for variable importance analysis, enhancing interpretability of inflow by incorporating multiple baselines to capture a broader range of hydrometeorological conditions. The proposed methods are demonstrated at several diverse reservoirs across the United States. Our results show that they outperform traditional methods, particularly at longer lead times, while also offering insights into the key drivers of inflow forecasting. These advancements contribute to enhanced reservoir management through improved forecasting accuracy and practical decision-making insights under complex hydroclimatic conditions. Full article

The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) delta, characterized by complex topography and hydrological conditions, is highly susceptible to recurrent flooding, particularly in its coastal regions where tidal dynamics hinder floodwater discharge. This study integrates Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery with machine learning (ML) techniques to assess near real-time flood inundation patterns associated with extreme weather events, including recent cyclones between 2017 to 2024 (namely, Mora, Titli, Fani, Amphan, Yaas, Sitrang, Midhili, and Remal) as well as intense monsoonal rainfall during the same period, across a large spatial scale, to support disaster risk management efforts. Three machine learning algorithms, namely, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and K-nearest neighbors (KNN), were applied to flood extent data derived from SAR imagery to enhance flood detection accuracy. Among these, the SVM algorithm demonstrated the highest classification accuracy (75%) and exhibited superior robustness in delineating flood-affected areas. The analysis reveals that both cyclone intensity and rainfall magnitude significantly influence flood extent, with the western coastal zone (e.g., Morrelganj and Kaliganj) being most consistently affected. The peak inundation extent was observed during the 2023 monsoon (10,333 sq. km), while interannual variability in rainfall intensity directly influenced the spatial extent of flood-affected zones. In parallel, eight major cyclones, including Amphan (2020) and Remal (2024), triggered substantial flooding, with the most severe inundation recorded during Cyclone Remal with an area of 9243 sq. km. Morrelganj and Chakaria were consistently identified as flood hotspots during both monsoonal and cyclonic events. Comparative analysis indicates that cyclones result in larger areas with low-level inundation (19,085 sq. km) compared to monsoons (13,829 sq. km). However, monsoon events result in a larger area impacted by frequent inundation, underscoring the critical role of rainfall intensity. These findings underscore the utility of SAR-ML integration in operational flood monitoring and highlight the urgent need for localized, event-specific flood risk management strategies to enhance flood resilience in the GBM delta. Full article

Molds readily grow on wet books, documents, and other library materials where they ruin them chemically, mechanically, and aesthetically. Poor maintenance of libraries, failures of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, roof leaks, and storm damage leading to flooding can all result in accelerated fungal growth. Moreover, when fungal spores are present at high concentrations in the air, they can be linked to severe respiratory conditions and possibly to other adverse health effects in humans. Climate change and the accompanying storms and floods are making the dual potential of fungi to biodegrade library holdings and harm human health more common. This essay is intended for microbiologists without much background in mycology who are called in to help librarians who are dealing with mold outbreaks in libraries. Our goal is to demystify aspects of fungal taxonomy, morphology, and nomenclature while also recommending guidelines for minimizing mold contamination in library collections. Full article

Capturing CO₂ emitted by coal chemical enterprises and injecting it into oil reservoirs not only effectively improves the recovery rate and development efficiency of tight oil reservoirs in the Ordos Basin but also addresses the carbon emission problem constraining the development of the region. Since initiating field experiments in 2012, the Ordos Basin has become a significant base for CCUS (Carbon capture, Utilization, and Storage) technology application and demonstration in China. However, over the years, projects have primarily focused on enhancing the recovery rate of CO₂ flooding, while issues such as potential reservoir damage and its extent have received insufficient attention. This oversight hinder the long-term development and promotion of CO₂ flooding technology in the region. Experimental results were comprehensively analyzed using techniques including nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), inductively coupled plasma (ICP), and ion chromography (IG). The findings indicate that under current reservoir temperature and pressure conditions, significant asphaltene deposition and calcium carbonate precipitation do not occur during CO₂ flooding. The reservoir’s characteristics-high feldspar content, low carbon mineral content, and low clay mineral content determine that the primary mechanism affecting physical properties under CO₂ flooding in the Chang 4 + 5 tight sandstone reservoir is not, as traditional understand, carbon mineral dissolution or primary clay mineral expansion and migration. Instead, feldspar corrosion and secondary particles migration are the fundamental reasons for the changes in reservoir properties. As permeability increases, micro pore blockage decreases, and the damaging effect of CO₂ flooding on reservoir permeability diminishes. Permeability and micro pore structure are therefore significant factors determining the damage degree of CO₂ flooding inflicts on tight reservoirs. In addition, temperature and pressure have a significant impact on the extent of reservoir damage caused by CO₂ flooding in the study region. At a given reservoir temperature, increasing CO₂ injection pressure can mitigate reservoir damage. It is recommended to avoid conducting CO₂ flooding projects in reservoirs with severe pressure attenuation, low permeability, and narrow pore throats as much as possible to prevent serious damage to the reservoir. At the same time, the production pressure difference should be reasonably controlled during the production process to reduce the risk and degree of calcium carbonate precipitation near oil production wells. Full article

Flood hazards have increasingly threatened the East Kazakhstan region in recent decades due to climate change and growing anthropogenic pressures, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. This article considers an approach to modeling and forecasting river runoff using the example of the small Kurchum River in the East Kazakhstan region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the numerical performance of the flood hazard model by comparing simulated flood extents with observed flood data. Two types of data were used as initial data: topographic data (digital elevation models and topographic maps) and hydrological data, including streamflow time series from stream gauges (hourly time steps) and lateral inflows along the river course. Spatially distributed rainfall forcing was not applied. To build the model, we used the software packages of HEC-RAS version 5.0.5 and MIKE version 11. Using retrospective data for 3 years (2019–2021), modeling was performed, the calculated boundaries of possible flooding were obtained, and the highest risk zones were identified. A dynamic map of depth changes in the river system is presented, showing the process of flood wave propagation, the dynamics of depth changes, and the expansion of the flood zone. Temporal flood inundation mapping and performance metrics were evaluated for each individual flood event (2019, 2020, and 2021). The simulation outcomes closely correlate with actual flood events. The assessment showed that the model data coincide with the real ones by 91.89% (2019), 89.09% (2020), and 95.91% (2021). The obtained results allow for a clarification of potential flood zones and can be used in planning measures to reduce flood risks. This study demonstrates the importance of an integrated approach to modeling, combining various software packages and data sources. Full article

Earthen flood protection structures are planned and constructed with an expected service life of several decades while being exposed to environmental impacts that may lead to structural or hydraulic failure. Current maintenance procedures involve only repairing external damage, leaving internal processes contributing to structural damage often undetected. Through structural health monitoring (SHM), structural deficits can be detected before visible damage occurs. To improve maintenance workflows and support predictive maintenance of dikes, this paper reports on the integration of digital twin concepts with SHM strategies, referred to as “digital-twin-based SHM”. A digital twin concept, including a standard-compliant building information model, is proposed and implemented in terms of a digital twin environment. For integrating monitoring and sensor data into the digital twin environment, a customized webform is designed. A communication protocol links preprocessed sensor data stored on a server with the digital twin environment, enabling model-based visualization and contextualization of the sensor data. As will be shown in this paper, a digital twin environment is set up and managed in the context of SHM in compliance with technical standards and using well-established software tools. In conclusion, digital-twin-based SHM, as proposed in this paper, has proven to advance predictive maintenance of dikes, contributing to the resilience of critical infrastructure against environmental impacts. Full article

Coastal areas are increasingly vulnerable to erosion, a process that can lead to severe consequences such as flooding and land loss. This study investigates strategies for preventing and mitigating coastal erosion, with a particular focus on nature-based solutions, notably artificial sand nourishment. Artificial nourishment has proven to be an effective method for erosion control. However, its success depends on factors such as the placement location, sediment volume, and frequency of operations. To optimize these interventions, simulations were conducted using both a numerical model (CS-Model) and a physical flume model, based on the same cross-section beach/dune profile, to compare cross-shore nourishment performance across different scenarios. The numerical modeling approach is presented first, including a description of the reference prototype-scale scenario. This is followed by an overview of the physical modeling, detailing the experimental 2D cross-section flume setup and tested scenarios. These scenarios simulate nourishment interventions with variations in beach profile, aiming to assess the influence of water level, berm width, bar volume, and bar geometry. The results from both numerical and physical simulations are presented, focusing on the cross-shore morphological response of the beach profile under wave action, particularly the effects on profile shape, water level, bar volume, and the position and depth of the bar crest. The main conclusion highlights that a wider initial berm leads to greater wave energy dissipation, thereby contributing to the mitigation of dune erosion. Full article