Search Results (391)

Central Asia (CA) faces growing Water–Energy–Food (WEF) Nexus challenges, due to its complex transboundary water management, legacy Soviet-era water infrastructure, and increasing climate and socio-economic pressures. This study presents the development of a System Dynamics Model (SDM) to evaluate WEF interdependencies across the Aral Sea Basin (ASB), including the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins and their sub-basins. Different downscaling strategies based on the area, population, or land use have been applied to process open-access databases at the national level in order to match the scope of the study. Climate and socio-economic assumptions were introduced through the integration of already defined Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting SDM incorporates more than 500 variables interacting through mathematical relationships to generate comprehensive outputs to understand the WEF Nexus concerns. The SDM was successfully calibrated and validated across three key dimensions of the WEF Nexus: final water discharge to the Aral Sea (Mean Absolute Error, MAE, <5%), energy balance (MAE = 4.6%), and agricultural water demand (basin-wide MAE = 1.2%). The results underscore the human-driven variability of inflows to the Aral Sea and highlight the critical importance of transboundary coordination to enhance future resilience. Full article

Quantifying future changes in extreme events and associated flooding is challenging yet fundamental for stormwater managers. Along the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) is frequently exposed to catastrophic floods from extreme rainfall that is typically associated with tropical cyclones. This study presents a novel approach that uses rainfall data from five dynamically and statistically downscaled (DD and SD) global climate models under two scenarios to visualize a potential future extent of flooding in ENC. Here, we use DD data (at 36-km grid spacing) to compute future changes in precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (PIDF) curves at the end of the 21st century. These PIDF curves are further applied to observed rainfall from Hurricane Matthew—a landfalling storm that created widespread flooding across ENC in 2016—to project versions of “Matthew 2100” that reflect changes in extreme precipitation under those scenarios. Each Matthew-2100 rainfall distribution was then used in hydrologic models (HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS) to simulate “2100” discharges and flooding extents in the Neuse River Basin (4686 km²) in ENC. The results show that DD datasets better represented historical changes in extreme rainfall than SD datasets. The projected changes in ENC rainfall (up to 112%) exceed values published for the U.S. but do not exceed historical values. The peak discharges for Matthew-2100 could increase by 23–69%, with 0.4–3 m increases in water surface elevation and 8–57% increases in flooded area. The projected increases in flooding would threaten people, ecosystems, agriculture, infrastructure, and the economy throughout ENC. Full article

Nokoué Lake is located in the south of Benin and is fed by the Ouémé and Sô Rivers. Its hydrosedimentary dynamics were modelled using Telemac2D, incorporating the main environmental factors of this complex ecosystem. The simulations accounted for flow rates and suspended solids concentrations during periods of high and low water. The main factors controlling sediment transport were identified. The model was validated using field measurements of water levels and suspended solids. The results show that the north–south current velocity ranges from 0.5 to 1 m/s during periods of high water and 0.1 to 0.5 m/s during low-water periods. Residual currents are influenced by rainfall, river discharge, and tides. Complex circulation patterns are caused by increased river flow during high water, while tides dominate during low water and transitional periods. The northern, western, and south-eastern parts of the lake have weak residual currents and are, therefore, deposition zones for fine sediments. The estimated average annual suspended solids load for 2022–2023 is 17 Mt. The model performance shows a strong agreement between the observed and simulated values: R² = 0.91 and NSE = 0.93 for water levels and R² = 0.86 and NSE = 0.78 for sediment transport. Full article

Groundwater systems are intrinsically linked to climate, with changing conditions significantly altering recharge, storage, and discharge processes, thereby impacting water availability and ecosystem integrity. Critical knowledge gaps persist regarding groundwater equilibrium timescales, water table dynamics, and their governing factors. This study develops a novel remote sensing framework to quantify factor controls on groundwater–climate interaction characteristics in the Heihe River Basin (HRB). High-resolution (0.005° × 0.005°) maps of groundwater response time (GRT) and water table ratio (WTR) were generated using multi-source geospatial data. Employing Geographical Convergent Cross Mapping (GCCM), we established causal relationships between GRT/WTR and their drivers, identifying key influences on groundwater dynamics. Generalized Additive Models (GAM) further quantified the relative contributions of climatic (precipitation, temperature), topographic (DEM, TWI), geologic (hydraulic conductivity, porosity, vadose zone thickness), and vegetative (NDVI, root depth, soil water) factors to GRT/WTR variability. Results indicate an average GRT of ~6.5 × 10⁸ years, with 7.36% of HRB exhibiting sub-century response times and 85.23% exceeding 1000 years. Recharge control dominates shrublands, wetlands, and croplands (WTR < 1), while topography control prevails in forests and barelands (WTR > 1). Key factors collectively explain 86.7% (GRT) and 75.9% (WTR) of observed variance, with spatial GRT variability driven primarily by hydraulic conductivity (34.3%), vadose zone thickness (13.5%), and precipitation (10.8%), while WTR variation is controlled by vadose zone thickness (19.2%), topographic wetness index (16.0%), and temperature (9.6%). These findings provide a scientifically rigorous basis for prioritizing groundwater conservation zones and designing climate-resilient water management policies in arid endorheic basins, with our high-resolution causal attribution framework offering transferable methodologies for global groundwater vulnerability assessments. Full article

This study investigates the dynamic response mechanisms of discharge capacity in the Han River Estuary to hydrological process changes at the Yangtze–Han River confluence. By constructing a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the 265 km Xinglong–Hankou reach, we quantitatively decouple the synergistic effects of riverbed scouring (mean annual incision rate: 0.12 m) and Three Gorges Dam (TGD) operation through four orthogonal scenarios. Key findings reveal: (1) Riverbed incision dominates discharge variation (annual mean contribution >84%), enhancing flood conveyance efficiency with a peak flow increase of 21.3 m³/s during July–September; (2) TGD regulation exhibits spatiotemporal intermittency, contributing 25–36% during impoundment periods (September–October) by reducing Yangtze backwater effects; (3) Nonlinear interactions between drivers reconfigure flow paths—antagonism occurs at low confluence ratios (R < 0.15, e.g., Cd increases to 45 under TGD but decreases to 8 under incision), while synergy at high ratios (R > 0.25) reduces Hanchuan Station flow by 13.84 m³/s; (4) The 180–265 km confluence-proximal zone is identified as a sensitive area, where coupled drivers amplify water surface gradients to −1.41 × 10⁻³ m/km (2.3× upstream) and velocity increments to 0.0027 m/s. The proposed “Natural/Anthropogenic Dual-Stressor Framework” elucidates estuary discharge mechanisms under intensive human interference, providing critical insights for flood control and trans-basin water resource management in tide-free estuaries globally. Full article

Rainfall–runoff processes and flood propagation were quantified to clarify floodwater dynamics in the upper Tenryu River basin. The basin is characterized by contrasting runoff behaviors between its left- and right-bank subbasins and large upstream river storage created by gorge topography. Radar rainfall and dam inflow data were analyzed to determine the runoff characteristics, on which the rainfall–runoff simulation was based. A higher storage capacity was observed in the left-bank subbasins, while an exceptionally large specific discharge was observed in one of the right-bank subbasins after several hours of intense rainfall. Based on these findings, the basin-scale storage was quantitatively evaluated. Water level peaks in the main channel appeared earlier at downstream locations, indicating that tributary inflows strongly affect the flood peak timing. A two-dimensional unsteady model successfully reproduced this behavior and captured the delay in the flood wave speed due to the complex morphology of the Tenryu River. The average α value, representing the ratio of flood wave speed to flow velocity, was 1.38 over the 70 km study reach. This analysis enabled quantification of river channel storage and clarified its relative relationship to basin storage, showing that river channel storage is approximately 12% of basin storage. Full article

Under the influence of global climate change, water conservancy projects located in the high-latitude cold regions of the world are facing severe challenges. This study addresses the contradiction between water supply stability and ecological flow during the dry season in cold regions. Taking Linhai Reservoir as the core, it integrates the HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model with multi-source data such as basin topography, hydro-meteorological data, and water conservancy project parameters to construct a multi-scenario water supply scheduling model during the dry season. The aim is to provide scientific recommendations for different reservoir operation strategies in response to varying frequencies of upstream inflow, based on simulations conducted after the reservoir’s completion. Taking into account winter runoff reduction characteristics and engineering parameters, we simulated the relationships between water level and flow, ecological flow requirements, and urban water shortages. The results indicate that in both flood and normal years, dynamic coordination of storage and discharge can achieve a daily water supply of 120,000 cubic meters, with 100% compliance for the ecological flow rate. For mild and moderate drought years, additional water diversion becomes necessary to achieve 93.5% and 89% supply reliability, respectively. During severe and extreme droughts, significantly reduced reservoir inflows lower ecological compliance rates, necessitating emergency measures, such as utilizing dead storage capacity and exploring alternative water sources. The study proposes operational strategies tailored to different drought intensities: initiating storage adjustments in September for mild droughts and implementing peak-shifting measures by mid-October for extreme droughts. These approaches enhance storage efficiency and mitigate ice blockage risks. This research supports the water supply security and river ecological health of urban and rural areas in Mudanjiang City and Hailin City and provides a certain scientific reference basis for the multi-objective coordinated operation of reservoirs in the same type of high-latitude cold regions. Full article

The coastline of the Yellow River Delta in China has experienced significant dynamic changes due to both natural and human activities. Investigating its coastal dynamics and understanding the equilibrium with riverine runoff and sediment discharge is crucial for ecological balance and sustainable development in the region. In this study, a coastline extraction algorithm was developed by integrating water index and dynamic frequency thresholds based on the Google Earth Engine platform. Long-term optical remote sensing datasets from Landsat (1988–2016) and Sentinel-2 (2017–2023) were utilized. The End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) methods were employed to quantify coastline changes, and the relationship between coastal evolution and runoff–sediment dynamics was investigated. The results revealed the following: (1) The coastline of the Yellow River Delta exhibits pronounced spatiotemporal variability. From 1988 to 2023, the Diaokou estuary recorded the lowest EPR and LRR values (−206.05 m/a and −248.33 m/a, respectively), whereas the Beicha estuary recorded the highest values (317.54 m/a and 374.14 m/a, respectively). (2) The cumulative land area change displayed a fluctuating pattern, characterized by a general trend of increase–decrease–increase, indicating a gradual progression toward dynamic equilibrium. The Diaokou estuary has been predominantly erosional, while the Qingshuigou estuary experienced deposition prior to 1996, followed by subsequent erosion. In contrast, the land area of the Beicha estuary has continued to increase since 1997. (3) Deltaic progradation has been primarily governed by runoff–sediment dynamics. Coastline advancement has occurred along active river channels as a result of sediment deposition, whereas former river mouths have retreated landward due to insufficient fluvial sediment input. In the Beicha estuary, increased land area has exhibited a strong positive correlation with annual sedimentary influx. The critical sediment discharge required to maintain equilibrium has been estimated at 79 million t/a for the Beicha estuary and 107 million t/a for the entire deltaic region. These findings provide a scientific foundation for sustainable sediment management, coastal restoration, and integrated land–water planning. This study supports sustainable coastal management, informs policymaking, and enhances ecosystem resilience. Full article

To investigate the species composition, reproductive dynamics, and hydrological drivers of fish resources in the early stage in the Guiping section of the Xunjiang River, we conducted a two-year survey (2022–2023) downstream of the Datengxia Dam. A total of 22,464 fish eggs and larvae were collected, representing 6 orders, 17 families, and 67 species, with Cyprinidae (58.2%) as the dominant family. Dominant species included Squaliobarbus curriculus, Gobiidae, Hemiculter leucisculus, and Culter, exhibiting significant interannual variation in abundance. The breeding season peaked from May to September, accounting for 94.6% of annual recruitment. Hydrological conditions strongly influenced reproductive output: the multiple flood pulse periods in 2022 (peak discharge: 29,000 m³/s) yielded 34.997 billion eggs and larvae, whereas reduced flows in 2023 (peak discharge: 12,200 m³/s) led to a 75.4% decline (8.620 billion). Redundancy analysis (RDA) revealed that discharge, water temperature, natural hydrological data, and dissolved oxygen were the primary environmental drivers, explaining 46.11% of variability in larval abundance (p < 0.001). Notably, the proportion of important economic fish, “four major Chinese carps”, plummeted from 4.9% (2022) to less than 0.1% (2023), indicating spawning ground function degradation. Our results demonstrate that flood pulses are essential for sustaining fish recruitment, particularly for pelagic spawning riverine fish like the four major Chinese carps. Their proportion plummeted to less than 0.1% in 2023, highlighting the urgent need for eco-hydrological management in the Xunjiang River. Full article

As a legacy of historical metal mining and the processing and smelting of metalliferous ores, metal pollution is a serious environmental problem in many areas around the globe. This review summarizes the history, technical development and environmental hazards of historic metal mining and metallurgical activities in the Harz Region (Germany), one of the oldest and most productive mining landscapes in Central Europe. The release of large amounts of metal-containing waste into rivers during historic ore processing and the ongoing leaching of metals from slag heaps, tailings dumps and contaminated soils and sediments are the main sources of metal pollution in the Harz Mountains and its foreland. This pollution extends along river systems with tributaries from the Harz Mountains and can even be detected in mudflats of the North Sea. In addition to fluvial discharges, atmospheric pollution by smelter smoke has led to long-term damage to soils and vegetation in the Harz Region. Currently, the ecological hazards caused by the legacy pollution from historical metal mining and metallurgy in the Harz Region are only partially known, particularly regarding the effects of changes in river ecosystems as a consequence of climate change. This review discusses the complexity and dynamics of human–environment interactions in the Harz Mountains and its surroundings, with a focus on lead (Pb) pollution. The paper also identifies future research directions with respect to metal contamination. Full article

To investigate the erosion and deposition evolution characteristics of the Xinqiman–Kelelik reach along the main stem of the Tarim River, this study analyzed river channel dynamics and planform morphological changes using Landsat satellite imagery (1993–2024) and hydrological data (water discharge and sediment load) from gauge stations. The results show that the thalweg line swings indefinitely in the river. The thalweg length increased by 29 km, while the mean channel width decreased by 0.28 km. The sinuosity index rose from 1.95 to 2.34, indicating a gradual intensification of channel curvature. The north bank is in a state of siltation, while the south bank is in a state of erosion. The riverbank exhibited an overall southward migration. The farmland area in the study area increased from 1510 hectares in 1993 to 5140 hectares in 2024. During this period, the thalweg near the water-diversion sluice continuously shifted toward the sluice side. To ensure flood protection safety for farmlands and villages on both banks, as well as ecological water diversion, river channel regulation and channel pattern control should be implemented. Full article

Floods pose a substantial threat to both life and property, with their frequency and intensity escalating due to climate change. A comprehensive hydrological and hydraulic modeling approach is essential for understanding flood dynamics and developing effective future flood risk management strategies. The accuracy of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) directly impacts the reliability of hydrologic simulations. This study focuses on evaluating the efficacy of two DEMs in hydrological modeling, specifically investigating their potential for daily discharge simulation in the Periyar River Basin, Kerala, India. Recognizing the limitations of the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) with the available dataset, a novel hybrid model was developed by integrating HEC-HMS outputs with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). While precipitation, lagged precipitation, and lagged discharge served as inputs to the ANN, the hybrid model also incorporated HEC-HMS simulations as an additional input. The results demonstrated improved performance of the hybrid model in simulating daily discharge. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) was employed to predict flood inundation areas for both historical and future scenarios in the Aluva region of the Periyar River Basin, which was severely impacted during the 2018 Kerala floods. By integrating hydrological and hydraulic modeling approaches, this study aims to enhance flood prediction accuracy and contribute to the development of effective flood mitigation strategies. Full article

Nutrients function as essential biological substrates for coastal phytoplankton growth and serve as pivotal indicators in marine environmental monitoring. The intensification of land-based nutrient sources inputs has exacerbated eutrophication in Chinese coastal water, while mechanistic understanding of differential self-purification processes among distinct land-based source nutrients (river source, domestic source, aquaculture source, and industrial source) remains limited, constraining accurate assessment of bay’s self-purification capacity. This study conducted incubation experiments in Tieshan Bay (TSB) during Summer (June 2023) and winter (January 2024), systematically analyzing the self-purification process of nutrients and associated environmental drivers. Distinct source-specific patterns emerged: river inputs exhibited maximal dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) 1.390 ± 0.74 mg/L, whereas industrial discharges showed peak dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) 4.88 ± 1.45 mg/L. Chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations varied markedly across sources, ranging from 34.97 ± 23.37 μg/L (domestic source) to 86.63 ± 77.08 μg/L (river source). First-order kinetics demonstrated significant source differentiation (p < 0.05). River-derived DIN exhibited the highest attenuation coefficient (−0.3244 ± 0.17 d⁻¹), contrasting with industrial-sourced DIP showing maximum depletion (−0.4332 ± 0.20 d⁻¹). Correlation analysis indicated that summer was significantly associated with the impacts of three key control factors pH, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity on nutrient dynamics (p < 0.05), whereas winter exhibited a stronger dependence on salinity. These parameters collectively may modulate microbial degradation pathways and particulate matter adsorption capacities. These findings establish quantitative thresholds for coastal nutrient buffering mechanisms, highlighting the necessity for source-specific eutrophication mitigation frameworks. The differential self-purification efficiencies underscore the importance of calibrating pollution control strategies according to both anthropogenic discharge characteristics and regional hydrochemical resilience, which is of key importance for ensuring the traceability and control of land-based sources of pollution into the sea and the scientific utilization of the self-purification capacity of the bay water body. Full article

This study evaluates the impact of precipitation ensembles on flood hazards in the Ouémé River Basin by coupling the hydrological HBV and hydrodynamic HEC–RAS model. Both models were calibrated and validated to simulate hydrological and hydraulic processes. Meteorological and hydrometric data from 1994 to 2016, along with flood maps and DEM are used. Evapotranspiration data are calculated using Hargreaves–Samani formula. The coupling HBV–HEC–RAS models enabled the generation of ensemble hydrographs, flood maps, flood probability maps and additional statistics in West Africa for the first time, offering a comprehensive understanding of flood dynamics under uncertainty. Ensemble hydrographs and maps obtained enhance decision-making by showing discharge scenarios, spatial flood variability, prediction reliability, and probabilities, supporting targeted flood management and resource planning under uncertainty. The findings underline the need for a comprehensive strategy to mitigate both common and rare flood events while accounting for spatial uncertainties inherent in hydrological and hydraulic modeling. Full article

In recent years, both anthropogenic and climate changes have caused the depletion of surface water resources, shifts in rainfall and accelerations in temperature, which indicates the importance of their examination to flood forecasting analyses. This paper studies the importance of synchronised water management strategies, considering upstream and downstream dynamics using field data from 1986 to 2018. Seasonal and decadal variations show the need for adaptive management strategies to address potential climate change impacts on discharge, precipitation and temperature patterns in the Zarrinehrud River, Iran. The regression analysis was considered via R² values, and the statistical analysis was regarded by p-values. The regression analysis of monthly river peak discharge indicates strong correlations between the discharge of specific months (September–October upstream, December–January downstream). By the 2000s and 2020s, both stations showed a shift in peak precipitation to the spring months (April–May for upstream and May–June for downstream). This confirms a synchronisation of rainfall trends, which are influenced by climate changes or regional hydrological patterns. This temporal offset between stations confirms the spatial and seasonal variation in rainfall distribution across the basin. Higher temperatures during the dominant months, particularly late summer to early autumn, accelerate snowmelt from upstream catchments. This aligns with the river discharge peaks observed in the hydrograph. The statistical analysis of river peak discharge indicated that the Weibull (p-value = 0.0901) and the Lognormal (p-value = 0.1736) distributions are the best fitted distributions for the upstream and downstream stations, respectively. Full article