Search Results (1,292)

Hydrogen is being increasingly integrated into the international trade system as a clean and flexible energy carrier, motivated by the global energy transition and carbon neutrality objectives. The rapid expansion of the global hydrogen trade network has simultaneously exposed several sustainability challenges, including a centralized structure, overdependence on key countries, and limited resilience to external disruptions. Based on this, we develop a risk propagation model that incorporates the absorption capacity of nodes to simulate the propagation of supply shortage risks within the global hydrogen trade network. Furthermore, we propose a composite sustainability index constructed from structural, economic, and environmental resilience indicators, enabling a systematic assessment of the network’s sustainable development capacity under external shock scenarios. Findings indicate the following: (1) The global hydrogen trade network is undergoing a structural shift from a Western Europe-dominated unipolar configuration to a more polycentric pattern. Countries such as China and Singapore are emerging as key hubs linking Eurasian regions, with trade relationships among nations becoming increasingly dense and diversified. (2) Although supply shortage shocks trigger structural disturbances, economic losses, and risks of carbon rebound, their impacts are largely concentrated in a limited number of hub countries, with relatively limited disruption to the overall sustainability of the system. (3) Countries exhibit significant heterogeneity in structural, economic, and environmental resilience. Risk propagation demonstrates an uneven pattern characterized by hub-induced disruptions, chain-like transmission, and localized clustering. Accordingly, policy recommendations are proposed, including the establishment of a polycentric coordination mechanism, the enhancement of regional emergency coordination mechanisms, and the advancement of differentiated capacity-building efforts. Full article

The intensifying global competition for cobalt resources and the increasing likelihood of trade decoupling and disruption are profoundly impacting the global energy transition. In a globalized trade environment, a decline in cobalt supply from exporting countries can spread through the trade network, negatively affecting demand countries. Quantitative analysis of the negative impacts of export supply declines in various countries can help identify early risks in the global supply chain, providing a scientific basis for energy security, industrial development, and policy responses. This study constructs a trade network using trade data on metal cobalt, cobalt powder, cobalt concentrate, and ore sand from the upstream (mining, selection, and smelting) stages of the cobalt industry chain across 155 countries and regions from 2000 to 2023. Based on this, an impact diffusion model is established, incorporating the trade volumes and production levels of cobalt resources in each country to measure their resilience to shocks and determine their direct or indirect dependencies. The study then simulates the impact on countries (regions) when each country’s supply is completely interrupted or reduced by 50%. The results show that: (1) The global cobalt trade network exhibits a ‘one superpower, multiple strong players’ characteristic. Congo (DRC) has a far greater destructive power than other countries, while South Africa, Zambia, Australia, Russia, and other countries have higher destructive power due to their strong storage and production capabilities, strong smelting capabilities, or as important trade transit countries. (2) The global cobalt trade network primarily consists of three major risk areas. The African continent, the Philippines and Indonesia in Southeast Asia, Australia in Oceania, and Russia, the United States, China, and the United Kingdom in Eurasia and North America form the primary risk zones for global cobalt trade. (3) When there is a complete disruption or a 50% reduction in export supply, China will suffer the greatest average demand loss, far exceeding the second-tier countries such as the United States, South Africa, and Zambia. In contrast, European countries and other regions worldwide will experience the smallest average demand loss. Full article

In light of the persistent environmental degradation driven by fossil fuels, developing new energy sources is essential for achieving sustainability. The recent surge in electric vehicle adoption has underscored the significance of new energy batteries. However, the supply chains of new energy battery manufacturers face multiple sustainability risks, which impede sustainable practice adoption. To tackle these challenges, leanness philosophy is an effective tool, and Industry 5.0 enhances its efficacy significantly, further mitigating sustainability risks. This study integrates the supply chain, leanness philosophy, and Industry 5.0 by applying quality function deployment. A novel four-phase hybrid MCDM model integrating the fuzzy Delphi method, DEMATEL, AHP, and fuzzy VIKOR, identified five key sustainability risks five core leanness principles, and eight critical Industry 5.0 enablers. By examining a Chinese new energy battery manufacturer as a case study, the findings aim to assist managers and decision-makers in mitigating sustainability risks within their supply chains. Full article

Healthcare supply chain management operates amid fluctuating patient demand, rapidly advancing biotechnologies, and unpredictable supply disruptions pose high risks and create an imperative for sustainable resource optimization. This study investigates the underlying mechanisms through which digital intelligence drives strategic decision optimization in healthcare supply chains. Drawing on the Resource-Based View and Dynamic Capabilities Theory, we develop a chain-mediated model, defined as the multistage indirect path whereby digital intelligence first bolsters innovation capability, which then activates supply chain resilience (absorptive, response, and restorative capability), to improve decision optimization. Data were collected from 360 managerial-level respondents working in healthcare supply chain organizations in China, and the proposed model was tested using structural equation modeling. The results indicate that digital intelligence enhances innovation capability, which in turn activates all three dimensions of resilience, producing a synergistic effect that promotes sustained decision optimization. However, the direct effect of digital intelligence on decision optimization was not statistically significant, suggesting that its impact is primarily mediated through organizational capabilities, particularly supply chain resilience. Practically, the findings suggest that in the process of deploying digital intelligence systems and platforms, healthcare organizations should embed technological advantages into organizational processes, emergency response mechanisms, and collaborative operations, so that digitalization moves beyond the technical system level and is truly internalized as organizational innovation capability and resilience, thereby leading to sustained improvement in decision-making performance. Full article

This paper explores the strategic implications of technological adoption within shipping logistics service supply chains, with a particular focus on blockchain technology (BCT). When integrating new technologies, supply chain stakeholders evaluate associated risks alongside complexity, profitability, and operational challenges, which influence their strategic behaviors. Anchored in the concept of technology trust, this study examines how different risk preferences affect BCT adoption decisions and freight rate strategies. A game-theoretic model is constructed using a mean-variance utility framework to analyze interactions between shipping companies and freight forwarders under three adoption scenarios: no adoption (NN), partial adoption (BN), and full adoption (BB). The results indicate that risk-seeking agents are more likely to adopt BCT early but face greater freight rate volatility in the initial stages. As the technology matures, strategic variability declines and the influence of adaptability on pricing becomes less pronounced. In contrast, risk-neutral and risk-averse participants tend to adopt more conservatively, resulting in slower but more stable pricing dynamics. These findings offer new insights into how technology trust and risk attitudes shape strategic decisions in digitally transforming supply chains. The study also provides practical implications for differentiated pricing strategies, BCT adoption incentives, and collaborative policy design among logistics stakeholders. Full article

Natech events, involving multi-hazard coupling and cascading effects, pose serious threats to coal mine safety. This paper addresses flood-induced Natech scenarios in coal mining and introduces a two-stage cascading analysis framework based on hazard systems theory. A tri-layered network—comprising natural hazards, exposed elements, and secondary hazards—models hazard propagation. In Stage 1, an improved adjacency information entropy algorithm with multi-hazard coupling coefficients identifies critical exposed elements. In Stage 2, Dijkstra’s algorithm extracts key risk transmission paths. A dual-dimensional classification method, based on entropy and transmission risk, is then applied to prioritize emergency responses. This method integrates the criticality of exposed elements with the risk levels associated with secondary disaster propagation paths. Case studies validate the framework, revealing: (1) Hierarchical heterogeneity in the network, with surface facilities and surrounding hydrological systems as central hubs; shaft and tunnel systems and surrounding geological systems are significantly affected by propagation from these core nodes, exhibiting marked instability. (2) Strong risk polarization in secondary hazard propagation, with core-node-originated paths being more efficient and urgent. (3) The entropy-risk classification enables targeted hazard control, improving efficiency. The study proposes chain-breaking strategies for precise, hierarchical, and timely emergency management, enhancing coal mine resilience to flood-induced Natech events. Full article

This study aims to critically analyze the theoretical and practical contributions of recent literature on the Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) method in multi-project environments. To this end, a systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted based on 62 studies indexed in the Scopus and Web of Science databases between 2014 and 2025. The articles were analyzed in terms of application domains, employed methods, obtained results, and proposed integrations with other approaches. Most studies used modeling and simulation, focusing on time reduction, risk mitigation, and cost optimization. A growing trend has been identified toward integrating CCPM with methodologies, such as Scrum, BIM, Lean Construction, Fuzzy FMEA, and predictive algorithms, thereby broadening its applicability in high-complexity scenarios. However, a significant gap remains in empirical studies applied to Engineer-to-Order (ETO) systems and service-based organizations, which are characterized by high customization, variability, and interdependence of resources. The research is justified by the need to consolidate accumulated knowledge on CCPM and to guide future investigations toward underexplored sectors. The findings strengthen the theoretical robustness of the method while indicating concrete opportunities for empirical validation in real-world organizational settings. Full article

Traditional seed supply chains face several hidden risks. Certain regulatory departments tend to focus primarily on entity circulation while neglecting the origin and accuracy of data in seed quality supervision, resulting in limited precision and low credibility of traceability information related to quality and safety. Blockchain technology offers a systematic solution to key issues such as data source distortion and insufficient regulatory penetration in the seed supply chain by enabling data rights confirmation, tamper-proof traceability, smart contract execution, and multi-node consensus mechanisms. In this study, we developed a system that integrates blockchain and neural networks to provide seed traceability services. When uploading seed traceability information, the neural network models are employed to verify the authenticity of information provided by humans and save the tags on the blockchain. Various neural network architectures, such as Multilayer Perceptron, Recurrent Neural Network, Fully Convolutional Neural Network, and Long Short-term Memory model architectures, have been tested to determine the authenticity of seed traceability information. Among these, the Long Short-term Memory model architecture demonstrated the highest accuracy, with an accuracy rate of 90.65%. The results demonstrated that neural networks have significant research value and potential to assess the authenticity of information in a blockchain. In the application scenario of seed quality traceability, using blockchain and neural networks to determine the authenticity of seed traceability information provides a new solution for seed traceability. This system empowers farmers by providing trustworthy seed quality information, enabling better purchasing decisions and reducing risks from counterfeit or substandard seeds. Furthermore, this mechanism fosters market circulation of certified high-quality seeds, elevates crop yields, and contributes to the sustainable growth of agricultural systems. Full article

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), encompassing Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis, is increasingly recognized as a systemic condition with cardiovascular implications. Among these, heart failure has emerged as a significant complication. The aim of this narrative review was to explore the cellular and molecular pathways that link IBD and heart failure. Drawing upon findings from epidemiologic studies, experimental models, and clinical research, we examined the pathways through which IBD may promote cardiac dysfunction. Chronic systemic inflammation in IBD, driven by cytokines such as TNF-α and IL-1β, can impair myocardial structure and function. Furthermore, intestinal barrier dysfunction and gut dysbiosis can facilitate the translocation of proinflammatory microbial metabolites, including lipopolysaccharide and phenylacetylglutamine, and deplete cardioprotective metabolites like short-chain fatty acids, thereby exacerbating heart failure risk. Additional contributing factors include endothelial and microvascular dysfunction, autonomic dysregulation, nutritional deficiencies, shared genetic susceptibility, and adverse pharmacologic effects. IBD contributes to heart failure pathogenesis through multifactorial and interrelated mechanisms. Recognizing the role of the gut–heart axis in IBD is crucial for the early identification of cardiovascular risk, providing guidance for integrating care and developing targeted therapies to reduce the risk of heart failure in this vulnerable population. Full article

This study explores asymmetric volatility structures within multivariate hysteretic autoregressive (MHAR) models that incorporate conditional correlations, aiming to flexibly capture the dynamic behavior of global financial assets. The proposed framework integrates regime switching and time-varying delays governed by a hysteresis variable, enabling the model to account for both asymmetric volatility and evolving correlation patterns over time. We adopt a fully Bayesian inference approach using adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, allowing for the joint estimation of model parameters, Value-at-Risk (VaR), and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES). The accuracy of VaR forecasts is assessed through two standard backtesting procedures. Our empirical analysis involves both simulated data and real-world financial datasets to evaluate the model’s effectiveness in capturing downside risk dynamics. We demonstrate the application of the proposed method on three pairs of daily log returns involving the S&P500, Bank of America (BAC), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and Goldman Sachs (GS), present the results obtained, and compare them against the original model framework. Full article

Exploring the action mechanisms and enhancement pathways of the resilience of agricultural product green supply chains is conducive to strengthening the system’s risk resistance capacity and providing decision support for achieving the “dual carbon” goals. Based on theories such as dynamic capability theory and complex adaptive systems, this paper constructs a resilience framework covering the three stages of “steady-state maintenance–dynamic adjustment–continuous evolution” from both single and multiple perspectives. Combined with 768 units of multi-agent questionnaire data, it adopts Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to analyze the influencing factors of resilience and reveal the nonlinear mechanisms of resilience formation. Secondly, by integrating configurational analysis with machine learning, it innovatively constructs a resilience level prediction model based on fsQCA-XGBoost. The research findings are as follows: (1) fsQCA identifies a total of four high-resilience pathways, verifying the core proposition of “multiple conjunctural causality” in complex adaptive system theory; (2) compared with single algorithms such as Random Forest, Decision Tree, AdaBoost, ExtraTrees, and XGBoost, the fsQCA-XGBoost prediction method proposed in this paper achieves an optimization of 66% and over 150% in recall rate and positive sample identification, respectively. It reduces false negative risk omission by 50% and improves the ability to capture high-risk samples by three times, which verifies the feasibility and applicability of the fsQCA-XGBoost prediction method in the field of resilience prediction for agricultural product green supply chains. This research provides a risk prevention and control paradigm with both theoretical explanatory power and practical operability for agricultural product green supply chains, and promotes collaborative realization of the “carbon reduction–supply stability–efficiency improvement” goals, transforming them from policy vision to operational reality. Full article

Despite growing scholarly interest in digital transformation, few studies have systematically explored the mechanisms linking digital transformation capability to firm performance. This study examines both the direct and indirect effects of digital transformation capability on firm performance, offering novel insights by incorporating organizational strategic intuition and digital leadership as mediating variables. These mediators align with the emerging emphasis on strategic risk management in the literature. A survey was conducted among 620 high-tech enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta using a structured questionnaire. The data were analyzed using SPSS 23.0 for descriptive and correlational statistics, SmartPLS 4.0 for structural equation modeling (SEM), and PROCESS 4.2 for mediation analysis. The results reveal a significant direct effect of digital transformation capability on firm performance. Mediation analysis further shows that organizational strategic intuition and digital leadership each significantly mediate this relationship, and a chain mediation pathway involving both variables is also confirmed. These findings deepen our understanding of how digital transformation capability drives performance outcomes and offer practical guidance for high-tech firms seeking sustainable competitive advantages in dynamic digital environments. This study advances the theoretical discourse by clarifying the pathways through which digital transformation capability affects firm performance and provides empirical evidence to inform strategic decision-making in high-tech management. Full article

This paper presents a comprehensive statistical analysis of the Gumbel Type-II distribution based on joint progressive Type-II censoring. It derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the distribution parameters and constructs their asymptotic confidence intervals. It investigates Bayesian estimation using non-informative and informative priors under the squared error loss function and the LINEX loss function, applying Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. A detailed simulation study evaluates the estimators’ performance in terms of average estimates, mean squared errors, and average confidence interval lengths. Results show that Bayesian estimators can outperform maximum likelihood estimators, especially with informative priors. A real data example demonstrates the practical use of the proposed methods. The analysis confirms that the Gumbel Type-II distribution with joint progressive censoring provides a flexible and effective model for lifetime data, enabling more accurate reliability assessment and risk analysis in engineering and survival studies. Full article

Through the energy conversion of building skins, building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) technology, the core carrier of the smart city energy system, encourages the conversion of buildings into energy-generating units. However, the decommissioning of the module faces the challenge of physical dismantling and financial environmental damage because of the close coupling with the building itself. As the first tranche of BIPV projects will enter the end of their life cycle, it is urgent to establish a multi-dimensional collaborative recycling mechanism that meets the characteristics of building pv systems. Based on the theory of reverse logistics network, the research focuses on optimizing the reverse logistics network during the decommissioning stage of BIPV modules, and proposes a dual-objective optimization model that considers both cost and carbon emissions for BIPV. Meanwhile, the multi-level recycling network which covers “building points-regional transfer stations-specialized distribution centers” is designed in the research, the Pareto solution set is solved by the improved NSGA-II algorithm, a “1 + 1” du-al-core construction model of distribution center and transfer station is developed, so as to minimize the total cost and life cycle carbon footprint of the logistics network. At the same time, the research also reveals the driving effect of government reward and punishment policies on the collaborative behavior of enterprise recycling, and provides methodological support for the construction of a closed-loop supply chain of “PV-building-environment” symbiosis. The study concludes that in the process of constructing smart city energy system, the systematic control of resource circulation and environmental risks through the optimization of reverse logistics network can provide technical support for the sustainable development of smart city. Full article

This work presents a parallel agent-based framework designed to analyze the dynamics of vegetable trade within a metropolitan area. The system integrates agent-based and discrete event techniques to capture the complex interactions among farmers, vendors, and consumers in urban agricultural supply chains. Decision-making processes are modeled in detail: farmers select crops based on market trends and environmental risks, while vendors and consumers adapt their purchasing behavior according to seasonality, prices, and availability. To efficiently handle the computational demands of large-scale scenarios, we adopt an optimistic approximate parallel execution strategy. Furthermore, we introduce a credit-based load balancing mechanism that mitigates the effects of heterogeneous communication patterns and improves scalability. This framework enables detailed analysis of food distribution systems in urban contexts, offering insights relevant to smart cities and digital agriculture initiatives. Full article