Search Results (3,542)

Reliable rainfall prediction is essential for effective climate adaptation yet remains challenging due to complex atmospheric interactions that vary across regions. This study investigates next-day rainfall predictability in tropical and temperate climates using daily atmospheric data—including pressure, temperature, dew point, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction—collected from topographically similar sites in Alor Setar (tropical) and Vercelli, Williams, and Ashburton (temperate) between 2012 and 2015. Logistic regression and random forest models were used to predict rainfall occurrence as a binary outcome. Key variables were identified using Wald’s statistics and p-values in the logistic regression models, while the random forest models relied on mean decrease accuracy for ranking variable importance. The results reveal that rainfall in temperate climates is significantly more predictable than in tropical regions, with the Williams model demonstrating the highest accuracy. Atmospheric pressure consistently emerged as the dominant predictor in temperate regions but was not significant in the tropical model, reflecting the greater atmospheric variability and complexity in tropical rainfall mechanisms. Crucially, the study highlights that as global warming continues to alter temperate climate patterns—bringing increased variability and more convective rainfall—these regions may experience the same predictive uncertainties currently observed in tropical climates. These findings underscore the urgency of developing robust, climate-specific rainfall prediction models that account for changing atmospheric dynamics, with critical implications for weather forecasting, disaster preparedness, and climate resilience planning. Full article

The growth potential of Crinum bulbispermum was evaluated on gold mine tailings. The primary objectives were to model the species’ climatic niche in relation to gold mining regions, assess its germination success on tailings, and compare seedling survival and growth on tailings versus other soil types. Species distribution modelling identified the South African Grassland Biome on the Highveld (1000+ m above sea level), where the majority of gold mines are located, as highly suitable for the species. Pot trials demonstrated above 85% germination success across all soil treatments, including gold mine tailings, indicating its potential for restoration through direct seeding. An initial seedling establishment rate of 100% further demonstrated the species’ resilience to mine tailings, which are often seasonally dry, nutrient-poor, and may contain potentially toxic metals. However, while C. bulbispermum was able to germinate and establish in mine tailings, long-term growth potential (over 12 months) was constrained by low organic carbon content (0.11%) and high salinity (194.50 mS/m). These findings underscore the critical role of soil chemistry and organic matter in supporting long-term plant establishment and growth on gold tailings. Building on previous research, this study confirms the ability of this thick-rooted geophyte to tolerate chemically extreme soil conditions. Crinum bulbispermum shows promise for phytostabilization and as a potential medicinal plant crop on tailings. However, future research on microbial community interactions and soil amendment strategies is essential to ensure its long-term sustainability. Full article

Salinity is a major abiotic stress limiting black gram (Vigna mungo) productivity, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Saline soils negatively impact plant growth, nodulation, nitrogen fixation, and yield. This study evaluated the efficacy of co-inoculating salt-tolerant plant growth-promoting bacteria Paenibacillus sp. SPR11 and Bradyrhizobium yuanmingense PR3 on black gram performance under saline field conditions (EC: 8.87 dS m⁻¹; pH: 8.37) with low organic carbon (0.6%) and nutrient deficiencies. In vitro assays demonstrated the biocontrol potential of SPR11, inhibiting Fusarium oxysporum and Macrophomina phaseolina by 76% and 62%, respectively. Germination assays and net house experiments under 300 mM NaCl stress showed that co-inoculation significantly improved physiological traits, including germination rate, root length (61.39%), shoot biomass (59.95%), and nitrogen fixation (52.4%) in nitrogen-free media. Field trials further revealed enhanced stress tolerance markers: chlorophyll content increased by 54.74%, proline by 50.89%, and antioxidant enzyme activities (SOD, CAT, PAL) were significantly upregulated. Electrolyte leakage was reduced by 55.77%, indicating improved membrane stability. Agronomic performance also improved, with co-inoculated plants showing increased root length (7.19%), grain yield (15.55 q ha⁻¹; 77.04% over control), total biomass (26.73 q ha⁻¹; 57.06%), and straw yield (8.18 q ha⁻¹). Pod number, seed count, and seed weight were also enhanced. Nutrient analysis showed elevated uptake of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and key micronutrients (Zn, Fe) in both grain and straw. To the best of our knowledge, this is the very first field-based report demonstrating the synergistic benefits of co-inoculating Paenibacillus sp. SPR11 and Bradyrhizobium yuanmingense PR3 in black gram under saline, nutrient-poor conditions without external nitrogen inputs. The results highlight a sustainable strategy to enhance legume productivity and resilience in salt-affected soils. Full article

This study presents a 39-year spatiotemporal analysis of shoreline variability at Topocalma Beach (Chile) using satellite-derived data collected between 1985 and 2024. A total of 350 satellite images were processed with CoastSat and DSAS v6.0 to quantify erosional and accretional trends across distinct beach sectors. The results show persistent erosion in the proximal zone near the Topocalma wetland and localized accretion in the distal (southern) segment. These changes are closely associated with the 2010 Maule earthquake and tsunami, strong ENSO phases, and an increase in storm surge activity since 2015. The spatiotemporal beach width model reveals distinct phases of retreat and short-term post-seismic stabilization, followed by a shift to sustained erosion. Overall, this study underscores the limited natural recovery capacity of the beach and highlights the utility of satellite-based monitoring tools for coastal resilience planning in data-limited regions. Full article

Based on the panel data of daily meteorological stations and winter wheat yield in Henan Province from 2000 to 2023, this study comprehensively used the Mann–Kendall trend test, wavelet coherence analysis (WTC), and other methods to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution of extreme precipitation and its multi-scale stress mechanism on grain yield. The results showed the following: (1) Extreme precipitation showed the characteristics of ‘frequent fluctuation-gentle trend-strong spatial heterogeneity’, and the maximum daily precipitation in spring (RX1DAY) showed a significant uplift. The increase in rainstorm events (R95p/R99p) in the southern region during the summer is particularly prominent; at the same time, the number of consecutive drought days (CDDs > 15 d) in the middle of autumn was significantly prolonged. It was also found that 2010 is a significant mutation node. Since then, the synergistic effect of ‘increasing drought days–increasing rainstorm frequency’ has begun to appear, and the short-period coherence of super-strong precipitation (R99p) has risen to more than 0.8. (2) The spatial pattern of winter wheat in Henan is characterized by the three-level differentiation of ‘stable core area, sensitive transition zone and shrinking suburban area’, and the stability of winter wheat has improved but there are still local risks. (3) There is a multi-scale stress mechanism of extreme precipitation on winter wheat yield. The long-period (4–8 years) drought and flood events drive the system risk through a 1–2-year lag effect (short-period (0.5–2 years) medium rainstorm intensity directly impacted the production system). This study proposes a ‘sub-scale governance’ strategy, using a 1–2-year lag window to establish a rainstorm warning mechanism, and optimizing drainage facilities for high-risk areas of floods in the south to improve the climate resilience of the agricultural system against the background of climate change. Full article

Background: Disruptions in freight transportation—such as service delays, infrastructure failures, and labor strikes—pose significant challenges to the reliability and efficiency of intermodal networks. To address these challenges, this study introduces Adaptive Intermodal Transportation (AIT), a resilient and flexible planning framework that enhances Synchromodal Freight Transport (SFT) by integrating real-time disruption management. Methods: Building on recent advances, we propose two novel strategies: (1) Reassign with Delay Buffer, which enables dynamic rerouting of shipments within a user-defined delay tolerance, and (2) (De)Consolidation, which allows splitting or merging of shipments across services depending on available capacity. These strategies are incorporated into a re-planning module that complements a baseline optimization model and a continuous disruption-monitoring system. Numerical experiments conducted on a Great Lakes-based case study evaluate the performance of the proposed strategies against a benchmark approach. Results: Results show that under moderate and high-disruption conditions, the proposed strategies reduce delay and disruption-incurred costs while increasing the percentage of matched shipments. The Reassign with Delay Buffer strategy offers controlled flexibility, while (De)Consolidation improves resource utilization in constrained environments. Conclusions: Overall, the AIT framework demonstrates strong potential for improving operational resilience in intermodal freight systems by enabling adaptive, disruption-aware planning decisions. Full article

Accurate estimation of actual evapotranspiration (ET) is critical for understanding hydrothermal cycles and ecosystem functioning in arid regions, where water scarcity governs ecological resilience. To address persistent gaps in ET quantification, this study integrates multi-source remote sensing data, energy balance modeling, and ground-based validation that significantly enhances spatiotemporal ET accuracy in the vulnerable desert steppe ecosystems. The study utilized meteorological data from several national stations and Landsat-8 imagery to process monthly remote sensing images in 2019. The Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model, chosen for its ability to estimate ET over large areas, was applied to derive modeled daily ET values, which were validated by a large-weighted lysimeter. It was shown that ET varied seasonally, peaking in July at 6.40 mm/day, and reaching a minimum value in winter with 1.83 mm/day in December. ET was significantly higher in southern regions compared to central and northern areas. SEBS-derived ET showed strong agreement with lysimeter measurements, with a mean relative error of 4.30%, which also consistently outperformed MOD16A2 ET products in accuracy. This spatial heterogeneity was driven by greater vegetation coverage and enhanced precipitation in the southeast. The steppe ET showed a strong positive correlation with surface temperatures and vegetation density. Moreover, the precipitation gradients and land use were primary controllers of spatial ET patterns. The process-based SEBS frameworks demonstrate dual functionality as resource-optimized computational platforms while enabling multi-scale quantification of ET spatiotemporal heterogeneity; it was therefore a reliable tool for ecohydrological assessments in an arid steppe, providing critical insights for water resource management and drought monitoring. Full article

Understanding the migratory strategies of plateau-endemic species is essential for informing effective conservation, especially under climate change. The Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis), a high-altitude specialist, has shown notable population growth in recent years. We analysed satellite tracking data from 16 individuals of a western subpopulation in the lake basin region of northern Tibet (2021–2024), focusing on migration patterns, stopover use, and habitat selection. This subpopulation exhibited short-distance (mean: 284.21 km), intra-Tibet migrations with low reliance on stopover sites. Autumn migration was shorter, more direct, higher in altitude, and slower in speed than spring migration. Juveniles used smaller, more fragmented habitats than subadults, and their spatial range expanded over time. Given these patterns, we infer that the short-distance migration strategy may reduce energetic demands and mortality risks while increasing route flexibility—characteristics that may benefit population growth. We refer to this as a low-energy, high-efficiency migration strategy, which we hypothesise could support faster population growth and enhance resilience to environmental change. We recommend prioritizing the conservation of short-distance migration corridors, such as the typical lake basin area in northern Tibet–Yarlung Tsangpo River system, which may help sustain plateau-endemic migratory populations under future climate scenarios. Full article

To enhance the structural safety in wind-sand regions, this study employs the Euler-Lagrange numerical method to investigate the wind pressure characteristics of typical low-rise auxiliary buildings in a strong wind-blown sand environment. The results reveal that sand particle motion dissipates wind energy, leading to a slight reduction in average wind speed, while the increase in small-scale vortex energy enhances fluctuating wind speed. In the sand-laden wind field, the average wind pressure coefficient shows no significant change, whereas the fluctuating wind pressure coefficient increases markedly, particularly in the windward region of the building. Analysis of the skewness and kurtosis of wind pressure reveals that the non-Gaussian characteristics of wind pressure are amplified in the sand-laden wind, thereby elevating the risk of damage to the building envelope. Consequently, it is recommended that the design fluctuating wind load for envelopes and components of low-rise buildings in wind-sand regions be increased by 10% to enhance structural resilience. Full article

Multiple uncertainties in traffic demand fluctuations and infrastructure vulnerability during seismic events pose significant challenges for the resilience assessment of highway transportation networks (HTNs). While Monte Carlo simulation remains the dominant approach for uncertainty propagation, its high computational cost limits its scalability, particularly in metropolitan-scale networks. This study proposes an EQResNet framework for accelerated post-earthquake resilience assessment of HTNs. The model integrates network topology, interregional traffic demand, and roadway characteristics into a streamlined deep neural network architecture. A comprehensive surrogate modeling strategy is developed to replace conventional traffic simulation modules, including highway status realization, shortest path computation, and traffic flow assignment. Combined with seismic fragility models and recovery functions for regional bridges, the framework captures the dynamic evolution of HTN functionality following seismic events. A multi-dimensional resilience evaluation system is also established to quantify network performance from emergency response and recovery perspectives. A case study on the Sioux Falls network under probabilistic earthquake scenarios demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving 95% prediction accuracy while reducing computational time by 90% compared to traditional numerical simulations. The results highlight the framework’s potential as a scalable, efficient, and reliable tool for large-scale post-disaster transportation system analysis. Full article

Mining (1) operations in remote areas (2) face significant challenges related to energy supply, high fuel costs, and limited infrastructure. This study investigates the potential for achieving energy independence (3) and resilience (4) in such environments through the integration of renewable energy sources (5) and battery–electric mining equipment. Using the “Studena Vrila” underground bauxite mine as a case study, a comprehensive techno-economic and environmental analysis was conducted across three development models. These models explore incremental scenarios of solar and wind energy adoption combined with electrification of mobile machinery. The methodology includes calculating levelized cost of energy (LCOE), return on investment (ROI), and greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions under each scenario. Results demonstrate that a full transition to RES and electric machinery can reduce diesel consumption by 100%, achieve annual savings of EUR 149,814, and cut GHG emissions by over 1.7 million kg CO₂-eq. While initial capital costs are high, all models yield a positive Net Present Value (NPV), confirming long-term economic viability. This research provides a replicable framework for decarbonizing mining operations in off-grid and infrastructure-limited regions. Full article

In river-connected lake regions, both land use and hydrological regime changes may affect the ecosystem services; however, few studies have attempted to elucidate their complex influences. In this study, the spatiotemporal dynamics of eight ecosystem services (crop production, aquatic production, water yield, soil retention, flood regulation, water purification, net primary productivity, and habitat quality) were investigated through remote-sensing images and the InVEST model in the Dongting Lake Region during 2000–2020. Results revealed that crop and aquatic production increased significantly from 2000 to 2020, particularly in the northwestern and central regions, while soil retention and net primary productivity also improved. However, flood regulation, water purification, and habitat quality decreased, with the fastest decline in habitat quality occurring at the periphery of the Dongting Lake. Land-use types accounted for 63.3%, 53.8%, and 40.3% of spatial heterogeneity in habitat quality, flood regulation, and water purification, respectively. Land-use changes, particularly the expansion of construction land and the conversion of water bodies to cropland, led to a sharp decline in soil retention, flood regulation, water purification, net primary productivity, and habitat quality. In addition, crop production and aquatic production were higher in cultivated land and residential land, while the accompanying degradation of flood regulation, water purification, and habitat quality formed a “production-pollution-degradation” spatial coupling pattern. Furthermore, hydrological fluctuations further complicated these dynamics; wet years amplified agricultural outputs but intensified ecological degradation through spatial spillover effects. These findings underscore the need for integrated land-use and hydrological management strategies that balance human livelihoods with ecosystem resilience. Full article

Although numerous studies have examined the spatial patterns of traditional villages and their driving factors, limited attention has been devoted to the transformation of tourism. This study focused on traditional villages in Shaanxi Province, employing geodetector and grounded theory methods to analyze their spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors. First, most traditional villages have not developed tourism. Only 11.98% reached the relatively mature tourism stage. Second, the spatial distribution of mature traditional tourism villages is scattered and primarily clustered in Liuba County, Mizhi County, and Jia County. Third, the factors influencing spatial distribution characteristics include resource endowment, transportation accessibility, and regional economic conditions. Among these factors, the level of traditional villages, village heritage values, and the local tourism environment show the strongest explanatory power. These findings can help enhance cultural resilience, promote economic transformation and upgrading, and support the sustainable development of traditional villages. Full article

Groundwater plays a crucial role in sustaining agriculture and livelihoods in the arid Middle Draa Valley (MDV) of southeastern Morocco. However, increasing groundwater extraction, declining rainfall, and the absence of effective floodwater harvesting systems have led to severe aquifer depletion. This study applies and compares six machine learning (ML) algorithms—decision trees (CART), ensemble methods (random forest, LightGBM, XGBoost), distance-based learning (k-nearest neighbors), and support vector machines—integrating GIS, satellite data, and field observations to delineate zones suitable for groundwater recharge. The results indicate that ensemble tree-based methods yielded the highest predictive accuracy, with LightGBM outperforming the others by achieving an overall accuracy of 0.90. Random forest and XGBoost also demonstrated strong performance, effectively identifying priority areas for artificial recharge, particularly near ephemeral streams. A feature importance analysis revealed that soil permeability, elevation, and stream proximity were the most influential variables in recharge zone delineation. The generated maps provide valuable support for irrigation planning, aquifer conservation, and floodwater management. Overall, the proposed machine learning–geospatial framework offers a robust and transferable approach for mapping groundwater recharge zones (GWRZ) in arid and semi-arid regions, contributing to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs))—notably SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), by enhancing water-use efficiency and groundwater recharge (Target 6.4), and SDG 13 (Climate Action), by supporting climate-resilient aquifer management. Full article

For a long time, the explanation of the various determinants of oil price fluctuations and their impact on economic activity has been based on the supply and demand mechanism. However, with various volatile changes in the international situation in recent years, such as threats to public health and an increase in regional conflicts, special attention has been paid to the geopolitical context as an additional driver of oil price fluctuations. This study examines the relationship between oil price changes and GDP growth and other macroeconomic variables from the perspective of the vulnerability of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries to unexpected oil price shocks, driven by tense geopolitical events, in three European countries (Norway, Germany, and Poland). We apply the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model and orthogonalized impulse response functions, based on quarterly data, in regard to two samples: the first spans 1995Q1–2019Q4 (pre-2020 sample), with relatively gradual changes in oil prices, and the second spans 1995Q1–2024Q2 (whole sample), with sudden fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical developments. A key finding of this research is that vulnerability to unpredictable oil price shocks related to geopolitical tensions is higher than in regard to expected gradual changes in oil prices, both in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Different causality patterns and stronger responses in regard to GDP growth during the period, including in regard to tense geopolitical events in comparison to the pre-2020 sample, lead to the belief that economies are not more resilient to oil price shocks as has been suggested by some studies, which referred to periods that were not driven by geopolitical events. Our research also suggests that countries implementing policies to reduce oil dependency and promote investment in alternative energy sources are better equipped to mitigate the adverse effects of oil price shocks. Full article