Search Results (2,157)

The Philippines experiences intense rainfall but has limited ground-based monitoring infrastructure for flood prediction. Satellite rainfall products provide broad coverage but contain systematic biases that reduce operational usefulness. This study evaluated whether three correction methods—Quantile Mapping (QM), Random Forest (RF), and Hybrid Ensemble—maintain accuracy when applied to future periods with substantially different rainfall characteristics. Using the Cagayan de Oro River Basin in Northern Mindanao as a case study, models were trained on 2019–2020 data and tested on an independent 2021 period exhibiting 120% higher mean rainfall and 33% increased rainy-day frequency. During training, Random Forest and Hybrid Ensemble substantially outperformed Quantile Mapping (R² = 0.71 and 0.76 versus R² = 0.25 for QM). However, when tested under realistic operational constraints using seasonally incomplete calibration data (January–April only), performance rankings reversed completely. Quantile Mapping maintained operational reliability (R² = 0.53, RMSE = 5.23 mm), while Random Forest and Hybrid Ensemble failed dramatically (R² dropping to 0.46 and 0.41, respectively). This demonstrates that training accuracy poorly predicts operational reliability under changing rainfall regimes. Quantile Mapping’s percentile-based correction naturally adapts when rainfall patterns shift without requiring recalibration, while machine learning methods learned magnitude-specific patterns that failed when conditions changed. For flood early warning in data-limited basins with equipment failures and variable rainfall, only Quantile Mapping proved operationally reliable. This has practical implications for disaster risk reduction across the Philippines and similar tropical regions where standard validation approaches may systematically mislead model selection by measuring calibration performance rather than operational transferability. Full article

Geostationary atmospheric motion vectors (e.g., FY4A AMVs) are routine mid-upper atmospheric observations used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, yet their complex spatiotemporal errors and assimilation limitations, i.e., high-temporal/coarse-spatial data and large-scale-adjustment/direct-assimilation scheme, leave unclear impacts of AMVs assimilation on nowcasting forecasts. To this end, a Nudging-Forced–3DVar scheme (NFV) is designed within a multi-scale (i.e., 12, 4, and 1 km) regional NWP framework to exploit AMVs characteristics; ablation experiments for the Zhengzhou “7.20” rainstorm isolate Nudging and 3DVar impacts on assimilation and nowcasting. Results show the following: (1) large-scale Nudging and high-resolution 3DVar both improve mid-upper analyses, with the former ingesting more observations; (2) Nudging retains large-scale background updates but yields significant misses, whereas 3DVar intensifies rainfall extremes yet blurs fine structures; (3) NFV merges its strengths, modulating deep convection through upper-level systems and markedly improving rainfall spatiotemporal patterns. Therefore, NFV is recommended for the FY4A AMVs’ future numerical nowcasting, which provides useful guidance for the regional application of geostationary 3D winds. Full article

Rainfall is an essential component of boreal forest ecosystems. Aerotechnogenic pollution significantly affects the composition of rainfall. To predict the dynamics of biogeochemical cycles and develop strategies to enhance forest resilience in the Arctic zone, it is necessary to study the composition and characteristics of rainfall. The objective of this study is to evaluate the variation in the chemical composition of stemflow in the most typical pine and spruce forests of Fennoscandia under conditions of aerotechnogenic pollution based on long-term monitoring data from 1999 to 2022. The research was carried out in forests exposed to atmospheric industrial pollution from the largest copper–nickel smelter in northern Europe (Murmansk Region, Russia). The study of rainwater composition was conducted in four microsites: open areas (OA), between crowns (BWC), below crowns (BC) and stemflow (SF). A significant influence of the tree canopy on the rainfall composition was noted. Stemflow was found to have the highest concentration of pollutants, indicating a significant biochemical role of this type of precipitation. The results showed an increase in the concentrations of heavy metals and sulfates in rainwater as we moved closer to the pollution source. Below crowns and in the stemflow of spruce forests, element concentrations are higher compared to pine forests. The highest concentrations of major pollutants in stemflow (Ni, Cu and SO₄²⁻) are observed in June—at the beginning of the growing season. Long-term dynamics reveal a decrease in the concentrations of Cu, Cd and Cr in defoliated forests and technogenic sparse forests. Stemflow volume rises from background to technogenic sparse forests due to deteriorating tree-crown conditions. This is associated with the deteriorating condition of tree stands, as manifested by reductions in tree height, diameter and needle cover. It has been established that under pollution conditions, trees’ assimilating organs actively accumulate heavy metals, thereby altering the composition of precipitation passing through the canopy. Full article

Sensor degradation poses a significant challenge in autonomous driving. During heavy rainfall, interference from raindrops can adversely affect the quality of LiDAR point clouds, resulting in, for instance, inaccurate point measurements. This, in turn, can potentially lead to safety concerns if autonomous driving systems are not weather-aware, i.e., if they are unable to discern such changes. In this study, we release a new, large-scale, multi-modal emulated rain dataset, REHEARSE-3D, to promote research advancements in 3D point cloud de-raining. Distinct from the most relevant competitors, our dataset is unique in several respects. First, it is the largest point-wise annotated dataset (9.2 billion annotated points), and second, it is the only one with high-resolution LiDAR data (LiDAR-256) enriched with 4D RADAR point clouds logged in both daytime and nighttime conditions in a controlled weather environment. Furthermore, REHEARSE-3D involves rain-characteristic information, which is of significant value not only for sensor noise modeling but also for analyzing the impact of weather at the point level. Leveraging REHEARSE-3D, we benchmark raindrop detection and removal in fused LiDAR and 4D RADAR point clouds. Our comprehensive study further evaluates the performance of various statistical and deep learning models, where SalsaNext and 3D-OutDet achieve above $94\%$ IoU for raindrop detection. Full article

Rainfall, as the main driving force of natural disasters such as floods and droughts, has strong non-linear and abrupt characteristics, which makes it difficult to predict. As extreme weather events occur frequently in the Yellow River Basin, it is especially critical to reveal the physical mechanism of rainfall in the basin and integrate monthly scale meteorological data to achieve monthly rainfall prediction. In this paper, we propose a rainfall prediction model coupled with a physical mechanism and a temporal convolutional network (TCN) to achieve the prediction of monthly rainfall in the basin, aiming to reveal the physical mechanism between rainfall factors in the basin based on the transfer entropy and the multidimensional Copula function and based on the physical mechanism which is embedded into the TCN to construct a dual-driven prediction model with both physical knowledge and data, while the SHAP is used to analyze the interpretability of the prediction model. The results are as follows: (1) Temperature, relative humidity, and evaporation are key characteristic factors driving rainfall. (2) The physical mechanism features between temperature, relative humidity, and evaporation can be described by the three-dimensional Gumbel–Hougaard Copula function, with a more concentrated data distribution of their joint distribution probability. (3) The PHY-TCN model can accurately fit the extremes of the rainfall series, improving the model accuracy in the training set by 3.82%, 1.39%, and 9.82% compared to TCN, CNN, and LSTM, respectively, and in the test set by 6.04%, 2.55%, and 8.91%, respectively. (4) Embedding physical mechanisms enhances the contribution of individual feature variables in the PHY-TCN model and increases the persuasiveness of the model. This study provides a new research framework for rainfall prediction in the YRB and analyzes the physical relationship between the input data and output results of the deep learning model. It has important practical significance and strategic value for guiding the optimal scheduling of water resources, improving the risk management level of the basin, and promoting the ecological protection and high-quality development of the YRB. Full article

This observation-based and explainable approach demonstrates the applicability of multi-source remote sensing for flood assessment in data-scarce regions, offering a robust scientific basis for flood management and spatial planning in monsoon-affected areas. Floods are among the most frequent and devastating natural hazards, particularly in developing countries such as Myanmar, where monsoon-driven rainfall and inadequate flood-control infrastructure exacerbate disaster impacts. This study presents a satellite-driven and interpretable framework for high-resolution flood susceptibility and risk assessment by integrating multi-source remote sensing and geospatial data with ensemble machine-learning models—Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM)—implemented on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Eleven satellite- and GIS-derived predictors were used, including the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, curvature, precipitation frequency, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), land-use type, and distance to rivers, to develop flood susceptibility models. The Jenks natural breaks method was applied to classify flood susceptibility into five categories across Myanmar. Both models achieved excellent predictive performance, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.943 for XGBoost and 0.936 for LightGBM, effectively distinguishing flood-prone from non-prone areas. XGBoost estimated that 26.1% of Myanmar’s territory falls within medium- to high-susceptibility zones, while LightGBM yielded a similar estimate of 25.3%. High-susceptibility regions were concentrated in the Ayeyarwady Delta, Rakhine coastal plains, and the Yangon region. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified precipitation frequency, NDVI, and DEM as dominant factors, highlighting the ability of satellite-observed environmental indicators to capture flood-relevant surface processes. To incorporate exposure, population density and nighttime-light intensity were integrated with the susceptibility results to construct a natural–social flood risk framework. This observation-based and explainable approach demonstrates the applicability of multi-source remote sensing for flood assessment in data-scarce regions, offering a robust scientific basis for flood management and spatial planning in monsoon-affected areas. Full article

Rapid urbanization has exacerbated urban-stormwater challenges, highlighting the critical need for coordinated surface-water and groundwater management through rainfall recharge. However, current sponge city construction methods often overlook the crucial role of underground aquifers in regulating the water cycle and mostly rely on simplified engineering approaches. To address these limitations, this study proposes a spatial optimization framework for urban-scale sponge systems that integrates a hydrodynamic model (FVCOM), geographic information systems (GIS), and Monte Carlo simulations. This framework establishes a comprehensive evaluation system that synergistically integrates surface water inundation depth, geological lithology, and groundwater depth to quantitatively assess sponge city suitability. The FVCOM was employed to simulate surface water inundation processes under extreme rainfall scenarios, while GIS facilitated spatial analysis and data integration. The Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to optimize the spatial layout by objectively determining factor weights and evaluate result uncertainty. Using Shenzhen City in China as a case study, this research combined the “matrix-corridor-patch” theory from landscape ecology to optimize the spatial structure of the sponge system. Furthermore, differentiated planning and management strategies were proposed based on regional characteristics and uncertainty analysis. The research findings provide a replicable and verifiable methodology for developing sponge city systems in high-density urban areas. The core value of this methodology lies in its creation of a scientific decision-making tool for direct application in urban planning. This tool can significantly enhance a city’s climate resilience and facilitate the coordinated, optimal management of water resources amid environmental changes. Full article

Satellite communication systems experience significant signal degradation during rain events, a phenomenon that can be leveraged for meteorological applications. This study introduces a novel hybrid machine learning framework combining unsupervised clustering with cluster-specific supervised deep learning models to transform satellite signal attenuation into a predictive tool for rainfall prediction. Unlike conventional single-model approaches treating all atmospheric conditions uniformly, our methodology employs K-Means Clustering with the Elbow Method to identify four distinct atmospheric regimes based on Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) patterns from a 12-m Ku-band satellite ground station at King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (KMITL), Bangkok, Thailand, combined with absolute pressure and hourly rainfall measurements. The dataset comprises 98,483 observations collected with 30-s temporal resolutions, providing comprehensive coverage of diverse tropical atmospheric conditions. The experimental platform integrates three subsystems: a receiver chain featuring a Low-Noise Block (LNB) converter and Software-Defined Radio (SDR) platform for real-time data acquisition; a control system with two-axis motorized pointing incorporating dual-encoder feedback; and a preprocessing workflow implementing data cleaning, K-Means Clustering (k = 4), Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE) for balanced representation, and standardization. Specialized Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks trained for each identified cluster enable capture of regime-specific temporal dynamics. Experimental validation demonstrates substantial performance improvements, with cluster-specific LSTM models achieving R² values exceeding 0.92 across all atmospheric regimes. Comparative analysis confirms LSTM superiority over RNN and GRU. Classification performance evaluation reveals exceptional detection capabilities with Probability of Detection ranging from 0.75 to 0.99 and False Alarm Ratios below 0.23. This work presents a scalable approach to weather radar systems for tropical regions with limited ground-based infrastructure, particularly during rapid meteorological transitions characteristic of tropical climates. Full article

The accurate retrieval of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) is a longstanding objective in meteorology because it underpins reliable quantitative precipitation estimation. Among remote sensors, weather radars are the primary tool for mapping DSD over wide areas, and phased-array systems in particular have demonstrated unique advantages owing to their high temporal and spatial resolution together with agile beam steering. Exploiting the underused high-resolution capability of an X-band phased-array radar, this study induced a Rainfall Regression Model (RRM). The RRM assumes a normalized gamma DSD model and retrieves its three parameters. It was then applied to a rain event influenced by the remnant circulation of Typhoon Haikui that affected Guangzhou on 8 September 2023. First, collocated disdrometer observations and T-matrix scattering simulations are used to build polynomial regressions between DSD parameters (D₀, N_w, μ) and the polarimetric variables. Validation against independent disdrometer samples yields Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.93 for D₀ and 0.91 for log₁₀N_w. The RRM is then applied to the full volumetric radar data. Horizontal maps reveal that the surface elevation angle consistently exhibited the largest standard deviation for all three parameters. A vertical profile analysis shows that large-drop cores (D₀ > 2 mm) can reside above 2 km and that iso-value contours tilt rather than align vertically, implying an appreciable horizontal drift of raindrops within the complex remnant typhoon–monsoon wind field. By demonstrating the ability of X-band phased-array radar to resolve the three-dimensional microphysical structure of remnant typhoon precipitation, this study advances our understanding of the vertical characteristics of raindrops and provides high-resolution DSD information that can be directly ingested into severe weather monitoring and nowcasting systems. Full article

With the increasing frequency of precipitation events under global warming, understanding rainfall-induced disruptions to urban mobility has become increasingly important. While prior studies primarily focus on road traffic, the lagged and threshold effects of rainfall on urban rail transit (URT) passenger flow remain insufficiently explored. This study analyzes 109 days of automatic fare collection data from Tianhe District, Guangzhou, in combination with hourly meteorological records and station-level built environment attributes. A rainfall threshold-aware gradient boosting framework is proposed to capture nonlinear response regimes, and an explainable learning approach is used to quantify the relative importance of rainfall, temporal factors, and built environment characteristics. The proposed framework outperforms the baseline model, with the root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) reduced by over 5.38% and 5.93%, respectively. Results further indicate that lagged rainfall intensity exerts the strongest influence on passenger flow variation, with impact magnitudes varying systematically across station types. These findings enhance understanding of the nonlinear, time-dependent effects of rainfall on URT demand and provide practical guidance for passenger flow management and operational planning under rainfall conditions. Full article

Introduction: Extreme precipitation events in the Ayeyarwady River Basin, Myanmar, exhibit pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity and non-stationarity, yet their linkages to large-scale climate oscillations remain poorly understood. Objective: This study aimed to characterize distinct rainfall regimes, quantify non-stationary extreme event dynamics, and identify teleconnections with oceanic-atmospheric variability over 66 years (1958–2023). Materials and Methods: A hybrid analytical framework integrating K-means clustering, non-stationary Generalized Pareto Distribution modeling, and wavelet coherence analysis was applied to gridded monthly precipitation data from TerraClimate. Results: Four spatiotemporal rainfall clusters were delineated, exhibiting fundamentally different monsoonal characteristics with mean seasonal peaks ranging from 188 mm to 686 mm. Extreme precipitation behavior demonstrated substantial heterogeneity, with 100-year return periods varying from 501 mm in subdued northern zones to 983 mm in hyper-intense coastal regions. Wavelet coherence analysis revealed regime-specific teleconnections: Cluster 2 exhibited the strongest ENSO influence (0.536 coherence strength, 64-month median duration, 1960 peak), while Cluster 4 demonstrated unique IOD dominance (0.479 strength, 74-month duration) extending beyond annual timescales. Teleconnection effectiveness varied substantially across regimes (0.428–0.536 strength) with significant decadal non-stationarity. Limitations and Perspectives: Basin-wide precipitation averages obscure critical regional variations in extreme event magnitudes and climate forcing mechanisms, necessitating regime-differentiated approaches for flood risk assessment and climate-informed water resources management in Myanmar’s most vital river basin. Full article

Geothermal fluids are the main carrier of hydrothermal geothermal resources. Identifying the differences in geothermal fluids in different types of reservoirs is a prerequisite and fundamental for the efficient development of geothermal resources and is of great significance for scientific research on geothermal resources. The North China Plain contains a typical carbonate thermal reservoir, and in this paper, the hydrochemical, isotopic, and redox characteristics of the geothermal fluids in sandstone and carbonate reservoirs are studied to obtain the differences in the geothermal fluids in the Rongcheng geothermal field in Xiong’an New Area. The results indicate that the geothermal fluids in the sandstone and carbonate reservoirs are mainly supplied by atmospheric rainfall, and the hydrochemical type is mainly Cl-Na type. By comparing and analyzing the stable isotope (O, H, C, S, and Sr) characteristics of the two types of geothermal fluids, it is found that the variation range of δ13C values for two types of sandstone thermal storage geothermal fluids was found to be −10.6‰~−12.8‰, while the variation range of δ¹³C values for carbonate thermal storage geothermal fluids was −3.3‰~−7.5‰. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of sandstone thermal storage geothermal fluids was distributed between 0.708–0.718, and the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of carbonate thermal storage geothermal fluids was distributed between 0.708–0.713. The range of δ³⁴S values for sandstone thermal storage geothermal fluids was +9.46‰~+10.5‰, and the range of δ³⁴S values for carbonate thermal storage geothermal fluids was +24.84‰~+34.49‰. The two types of geothermal fluids have been subjected to varying degrees of oxidation-reduction, and their cycling and mixing characteristics are different. This has resulted in the formation of relatively oxidized geothermal fluids in the sandstone geothermal reservoir and relatively reduced geothermal fluids in the carbonate geothermal reservoir. In future development and utilization of geothermal resources, paying attention to the basic characteristics of the geothermal fluids in different reservoirs and identifying the differences in different geothermal fluids can further improve the efficiency of geothermal resource development and utilization. Full article

In Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based runoff forecasting models, the selection of input schemes is critically important. This study, using daily rainfall and runoff data from the Jingle Basin (2006–2014), investigated three input schemes to evaluate their forecasting efficacy and employed the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) method to quantitatively analyze variable contributions. The results demonstrate that LSTM model performance deteriorates with increasing lead time, achieving optimal accuracy at a 1-day lead (MAE: 0.90 m³/s, RMSE: 3.09 m³/s, NSE: 0.84). The results, validated by significance testing, are reasonable; incorporating precipitation characteristics significantly enhances model performance compared to baseline schemes, reducing RMSE by 6–34% and improving NSE by 9–14%. SHAP analysis reveals antecedent runoff as the dominant influencing factor, accounting for 65.9–84.7% of total importance. Furthermore, the contributions of trend, seasonal, and residual components progressively increase with extended lead times, demonstrating non-negligible roles in forecast outcomes. These findings, confirmed by significance testing, provide quantitative insights into input variable contributions to target uncertainty and enhance the mechanistic understanding of precipitation-runoff relationships, offering valuable references for optimizing hydrological forecasting systems. Full article

Rainfall infiltration is one of the main factors inducing slope instability, while the spatial heterogeneity and uncertainty of soil parameters have profound impacts on slope response characteristics and stability evolution. Traditional deterministic analysis methods struggle to reveal the dynamic risk evolution process of the system under heavy rainfall. Therefore, this paper proposes an uncertainty analysis framework combining Karhunen–Loève Expansion (KLE) random field theory, Polynomial Chaos Kriging (PCK) surrogate modeling, and Monte Carlo simulation to efficiently quantify the probabilistic characteristics and spatial risks of rainfall-induced slope instability. First, for key strength parameters such as cohesion and internal friction angle, a two-dimensional random field with spatial correlation is constructed to realistically depict the regional variability of soil mechanical properties. Second, a PCK surrogate model optimized by the LARS algorithm is developed to achieve high-precision replacement of finite element calculation results. Then, large-scale Monte Carlo simulations are conducted based on the surrogate model to obtain the probability distribution characteristics of slope safety factors and potential instability areas at different times. The research results show that the slope enters the most unstable stage during the middle of rainfall (36–54 h), with severe system response fluctuations and highly concentrated instability risks. Deterministic analysis generally overestimates slope safety and ignores extreme responses in tail samples. The proposed method can effectively identify the multi-source uncertainty effects of slope systems, providing theoretical support and technical pathways for risk early warning, zoning design, and protection optimization of slope engineering during rainfall periods. Full article

As one of China’s major megacities, Chongqing is highly vulnerable to rainfall-induced landslides, and the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall driven by climate change further exacerbates risks to infrastructure and public safety. Although numerous studies on landslide susceptibility, quantitative assessments of future landslide frequency under different climate scenarios remain insufficient. This study addresses this gap by integrating high-resolution climate projections with a landslide early-warning model to predict spatiotemporal variations in landslide hazard across Chongqing. Based on regional climate characteristics, the rainy season was divided into three periods: May–June, July, and August–September. Soil moisture variations, together with static geological and topographic factors, were integrated using the information value model to assess the semi-dynamic landslide susceptibilities. On this basis, a regional warning model was then established by linking rainfall thresholds to four geological subregions. High-resolution NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 projections and historical ERA5 0rainfall data were used to quantify changes in exceedance days under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) from 2021 to 2100. Results indicate a substantial increase in days exceeding the 30% landslide-triggering rainfall threshold, with maximum relative growth of 15.57%. Landslide frequency exhibits pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity: increases are observed in May–June and August–September, whereas July trends vary with radiative forcing-decreasing under low-forcing scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5) and increasing under high-forcing scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The largest increase in frequency reaches 72%, primarily affecting southwestern and central Chongqing. By linking climate projections with rainfall thresholds and semi-dynamic susceptibility assessment, the framework provides a scientific reference for landslide risk prevention and mitigation under future climate scenarios, and offers transferable insights for other mountainous urban regions facing similar hazards. Full article