Search Results (668)

Accurate forecasting of meteorological parameters is essential for the reliable operation and performance optimization of photovoltaic (PV) power plants. Among these parameters, ambient temperature and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) have the most direct impact on PV output. This study investigates the integration of machine-learning-based (ML) weather forecasts into PV energy modeling and quantifies how forecast accuracy propagates into PV generation estimation errors. Three commonly used ML algorithms—Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forest (RF)—were developed and compared. Antalya (Turkey), representing a Mediterranean climate zone, was selected as the case study location. High-resolution meteorological data from 2018–2023 were used to train and evaluate the forecasting models for prediction horizons from 1 to 10 days. Model performance was assessed using root mean square error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R²). The results indicate that RF provides the highest accuracy for temperature prediction, while ANN demonstrates superior performance for GHI forecasting. The generated forecasts were incorporated into a PV power output simulation using the PVLib library. The analysis reveals that inaccuracies in GHI forecasts have the largest impact on PV energy estimation, whereas temperature forecast errors contribute significantly less. Overall, the study demonstrates the practical benefits of integrating ML-based meteorological forecasting with PV performance modeling and provides guidance on selecting suitable forecasting techniques for renewable energy system planning and optimization. Full article

The Iraqi coastline in the northern Persian Gulf is highly vulnerable to the impacts of future sea level rise. This study introduces a novel approach in the Arc Geographic Information System (ArcGIS) for inundation risk of the 58 km Iraqi coast of the northern Persian Gulf through a combination of multi-data sources, machine-learning predictions, and hydrological connectivity by Landsat. The Prophet/Neural Prophet time-series framework was used to extrapolate future sea level rise with 11 satellite altimetry missions that span 1993–2023. The coastline was obtained by using the Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery based on the Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), and topography was obtained by using the ALOS World 3D 30 m DEM. Global Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) projections (2020–2100) and population projections (2020–2100) were used as future inundation values. Two scenarios were compared, one based on an altimeter-based projection of sea level rise (SLR) and the other based on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) high-emission scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). It is found that, by the IPCC AR6 end-of-century projection horizon (relative to 1995–2014), 154,000 people under the altimeter case and 181,000 people under RCP8.5 will have a risk of being inundated. The highest flooded area is the barren area (25,523–46,489 hectares), then the urban land (5303–5743 hectares), and finally the cropland land (434–561 hectares). Critical infrastructure includes 275–406 km of road, 71–99 km of electricity lines, and 73–82 km of pipelines. The study provides the first hydrologically verified Digital Elevation Model (DEM)-refined inundation maps of Iraq that offer a baseline, in the form of a comprehensive and quantitative base, to the coastal adaptation and climate resilience planning. Full article

Ship weather routing optimization has evolved from deterministic great-circle navigation to sophisticated frameworks that account for dynamic environmental conditions and operational constraints. This paper presents a waypoint-sequencing Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach for energy-efficient ship weather routing under forecast uncertainty. The proposed rolling horizon framework integrates neural network-based vessel performance models with ensemble weather forecasts to enable real-time route adaptation while balancing fuel efficiency, navigational safety, and path smoothness objectives. The MPC controller operates with a 6 h control horizon and 24 h prediction horizon, re-optimizing every 6 h using updated meteorological forecasts. A multi-objective cost function prioritizes fuel consumption (60%), safety considerations (30%), and trajectory smoothness (10%), with an exponential discount factor (γ = 0.95) to account for increasing forecast uncertainty. The framework discretises planned routes into waypoints and optimizes heading angles and discrete speed options (12.0, 13.5, and 14.5 knots) at each control step. Validation using 21 transatlantic voyage scenarios with real hindcast weather data demonstrates the method’s capability to propagate uncertainties through ship performance models, yielding probabilistic estimates for attainable speed, fuel consumption, and estimated time of arrival (ETA). The methodology establishes a foundation for more advanced stochastic optimization approaches while offering immediate operational value through its computational tractability and integration with existing ship decision support systems. Full article

The detection of underground cavities and dissolution features is a critical component in assessing geohazards within karst terrains, particularly where natural processes interact with long-term human occupation. This study investigates two contrasting sites in the Sefrou region of northern Morocco: Binna, a rural travertine-dolomite system shaped by Quaternary karstification, and the urban Old Medina of Bhalil, where traditional cave dwellings are carved into carbonate formations. A combined geophysical and geological approach was applied to characterize subsurface heterogeneities and assess the extent of near-surface void development. Vertical electrical soundings (VES) at Binna site delineated high-resistivity anomalies consistent with air-filled cavities, dissolution conduits, and brecciated limestone horizons, all indicative of an active karst system. In the Bhalil old Medina site, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) with low-frequency antennas revealed strong reflection contrasts and localized signal attenuation zones corresponding to shallow natural cavities and potential anthropogenic excavations beneath densely constructed areas. Geological observations, including lithostratigraphic logging and structural cross-sections, provided additional constraints on cavity geometry, depth, and spatial distribution. The integrated results highlight a high degree of subsurface karstification across both sites and underscore the associated geotechnical risks for infrastructure, cultural heritage, and land-use stability. This work demonstrates the value of combining electrical and radar methods with geological analysis for mapping hazardous subsurface voids in cavity-prone Quaternary landscapes, offering essential insights for risk mitigation and sustainable urban and rural planning. Full article

One major factor influencing the development of eco-friendly policies and the implementation of climate change mitigation strategies is the accurate projection of CO₂ emissions. Traditional statistical models face significant limitations in capturing complex nonlinear interactions within high-dimensional emissions data. Advanced deep learning architectures offer new opportunities to overcome these computational challenges due to their strong pattern-recognition capabilities. This paper evaluates four distinct deep learning architectures for CO₂ emissions forecasting: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), Hybrid Convolutional–LSTM (CNN–LSTM) systems, and Dense Neural Networks (DNNs). A comprehensive comparison is conducted using consistent training protocols, hyperparameters, and performance metrics across five prediction horizons (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 steps ahead) to reveal architecture-specific degradation patterns. Furthermore, analyzing emissions by category provides insight into the suitability of each architecture for varying levels of pattern complexity. LSTM-based models demonstrate particular strength in modeling long-term temporal dependencies, making them well-suited for integration into long-range environmental policy planning frameworks. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence supporting the use of neural networks in climate modeling and proposes criteria for selecting optimal architectures based on forecasting horizon and computational constraints. Full article

Uncertainty in short-term grade estimations can significantly affect destination policies and dig-limit definitions in open-pit mining. However, most dig-limit techniques still rely on deterministic methods and manual procedures. This study proposes a stochastic optimization model for the dig-limit definition problem that incorporates geological uncertainty through multiple grade scenarios and explicitly controls deviations from production targets. Two real case studies were evaluated to compare the stochastic formulation against deterministic and manual definitions. Results show that the stochastic model systematically improves economic performance, with profit increases of up to 2.3% over deterministic policies and up to 4.3% when compared against manual solutions. The stochastic solution also reduces deviations from metal and grade targets, producing more stable outcomes across scenarios. The model is computationally efficient, with solution times below 25 s for all case studies, which are compatible with practical short-term planning workflows. Overall, our findings demonstrate that incorporating grade variability into the dig-limit definition improves profitability and reliability in short-term mine planning horizons. Full article

Raw material price volatility, freight rates, and foreign exchange all pose significant uncertainty for lithium-ion battery manufacturers, jeopardising procurement planning and financial stability. In this paper, we formulate a discrete Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) optimisation model to design implementable robust hedging strategies for multi-factor cost exposure. Unlike conventional continuous hedge models, which are often severely parameter-sensitive and require frequent rebalancing, the discrete approach takes hedge ratios to be fixed at a finite implementable grid (0%, 50%, 100%) and simultaneously minimises the expected cost and tail risk. We conduct two case studies: the first evaluates the model behaviour under stochastic price shocks using a multi-market simulation data set, and the second subjects the model to stress testing on correlation drift and tail amplification in order to examine systemic robustness. Our results show that, compared with an OLS-based hedge or a fully hedged benchmark, the discrete CVaR framework yields smoother hedge patterns, lower tail losses, and improved liquidity stability; in addition, our results indicate that, when combined with tail-risk penalisation, decision discretisation can endogenously confer robustness to the industrial procurement horizon. This work contributes to the stochastic optimisation literature and provides a practical tool for mitigating volatility in the global lithium supply chain. Full article

Accurate short-term forecasting of urban electricity demand is essential for operational planning and climate-resilient energy management. This study evaluates four forecasting models, namely, Prophet, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), across 15 U.S. cities representing diverse climatic regimes. Model performance is assessed at 1, 6, 12, and 24 h horizons using MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R² within a unified, climate-aware evaluation framework. Results show that Prophet consistently outperforms deep learning models at longer horizons (12–24 h), achieving MAE reductions of approximately 70–90% relative to LSTM and GRU across all climatic clusters, while maintaining R² values above 0.95 even in highly variable climates. At short horizons (1–6 h), LSTM and GRU perform competitively in climatically stable cities, reducing MAE by up to 15–25% compared with Prophet, but their accuracy deteriorates rapidly as forecast horizons increase. TCN exhibits intermediate performance, outperforming recurrent models in selected short-horizon cases but showing reduced robustness under high climate variability. Statistical testing indicates that model performance varies significantly across cities within climatically heterogeneous clusters (p < 0.05), highlighting the influence of climatic variability on forecasting reliability. Overall, the results demonstrate that model effectiveness is strongly context-dependent, providing quantitative guidance for climate-aware model selection in urban energy systems. Full article

With global energy systems shifting toward sustainable solutions, Dubai faces the challenge of meeting rising energy needs while minimizing environmental impacts. This study explores long-term (LT) strategic planning for Dubai’s power sector through a techno-environmental–economic lens. Using PLEXOS^® modelling software (Version 9.20.0001) and official data from Dubai’s main utility provider, a comprehensive model examines medium- and LT energy pathways. The analysis identifies solar photovoltaic (PV) technology as central to achieving Dubai’s goal of 100% clean energy by 2050. It also highlights the need to cut emissions from natural gas (NG) infrastructure, targeting a goal of 14.5% retirement of NG energy generation capacities by the mid-century. Achieving zero-emission goals will require complementary technologies such as carbon capture (CC), nuclear energy, and energy storage as part of a broader decarbonization strategy. This study further assesses the economic effects of climate policy, showing that moderate carbon pricing could increase the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) by an average of 6% across the forecast horizon. These findings offer valuable guidance for decision-makers and stakeholders, particularly the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA), in advancing a carbon-neutral energy system. By 2050, Dubai’s total installed generation capacity is projected to reach 53.3 GW, reflecting the scale of transformation needed to meet its clean energy ambitions. Full article

Local Climate Zones (LCZs) have become a foundational framework for urban climate modeling, yet their use across model families has not been systematically evaluated. Crucially, the LCZ framework itself has served as a developmental basis, revealing the progression of urban canopy parameterizations (UCP) from early models to the diverse model families currently in use. This evolution is exemplified by systems like the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, where the application of LCZ has fundamentally shifted from an experimental add-on to a basic, built-in feature of its urban-modeling capabilities. This review synthesizes a decade of LCZ-based studies to clarify how LCZ improves surface representation, enhances comparability, and supports multiscale modeling workflows. It provides a comprehensive overview of peer-reviewed work up to the end of 2024, offering a baseline for understanding the field’s rapid recent growth. Using a structured evidence-mapping approach, we categorize applications into three maturity stages: testing and measurement, operational and planning-oriented applications, and expansions beyond urban climate to chemistry, hydrology, and Earth-system modeling. The assessment covers various iterations of mesoscale systems (WRF, SURFEX/TEB, COSMO), local-scale climatologies (MUKLIMO-3, UrbClim), microscale models (ENVI-met, CFD), and supporting tools including SUEWS, SOLWEIG, RayMan, VCWG, and CESM-CLMU. Results show clear divisions of labor: WRF and SURFEX/TEB anchor process-rich regional simulations; MUKLIMO-3 and UrbClim offer computationally efficient long-horizon or multi-city assessments; ENVI-met and CFD provide design-scale insight when parameterized with LCZ archetypes. Across all families, model skill is strongly constrained by LCZ data quality and by inconsistencies in LCZ to UCP translation. We conclude that advancing LCZ-based urban climate modeling will depend on improved LCZ products, standardized parameter libraries, and formalized cross-scale model couplings that allow existing tools to interoperate more reliably under growing urban-climate pressures. Full article

Construction price indices play a critical role in shaping construction activity and determining the economic success of building projects in Germany, where they can serve as central inputs to cost planning and to updating trade-level project budgets over the planning and construction horizon. This paper develops a forecasting framework for 35 sub-construction price indices for office buildings, providing granular inputs for cost escalation and risk assessment. We employ regularized vector autoregressive models with exogenous variables (VARX) implemented via the BigVAR package and estimate them in a model-vintage design for an unbalanced panel. These high-dimensional models are benchmarked against compact VARX and vector error-correction models (VECM) that jointly forecast each target index with a small macroeconomic block consisting of the gross domestic product (GDP) and the three-month interbank rate. Candidate specifications are evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and out-of-sample root mean square error (RMSE), and the final forecasting model for each index is selected based on ex post MAPE. The results show that regularized VARX models capture dynamic interdependencies among the sub-indices and, for most series, outperform the VARX and VECM benchmarks. The resulting forecasts provide practitioners with trade-specific escalation factors that can support budgeting, contract design, and the mitigation of cost risk in office-building projects. Full article

Active distribution networks (ADNs) are rapidly evolving with the integration of distributed energy resources, flexible loads, and energy storage systems. Traditional planning methods, based on passive upgrades and worst-case scenarios, are no longer adequate for high DER penetration and dynamic system behavior. This review highlights the key evolution needs that will drive the evolution towards a more dynamic and optimized active distribution planning. Furthermore, this work reviews the core elements in ADN planning, covering time horizons, objectives, decision variables, uncertainty approaches, and optimal power flow formulations. This work also reviews recent generative AI models applied to active distribution networks, presenting a structured classification and definitions of each generative AI category. Full article

Driven by the surging global demand for crude oil and its byproducts, liquid tanker vessels have undergone a marked shift toward ultra-large dimensions. This growth, while enhancing transport capacity, has also intensified congestion across many liquid terminals. As the Dead Weight Tonnage (DWT) of vessels rises, so does their draft, often requiring tide-dependent navigation for safe entry into ports. To address the resulting operational complexities, this study investigates the coordinated scheduling of three critical resources—channels, tugboats, and berths—at liquid terminals. A novel optimization framework, termed the Channel-Tugboat-Berth-Tide (CUBT) model, is proposed. The primary objective is to minimize the total operational cost over a planning horizon, accounting for anchorage waiting time, channel occupancy, tugboat utilization, and penalties from delayed departures. To solve this model efficiently, we adopt an enhanced variant of the Logistic-Hybrid-Adaptive Black Widow Optimization Algorithm (LHA-BWOA), incorporating Logistic-Sine-Cosine Chaotic Map (LSC-CM) initialization, hybrid reproduction mechanisms, and dynamic parameter adaptation. A series of case studies involving varying planning cycles are conducted to validate the model’s practical viability. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate the impact of channel choice, tugboat allocation, and vessel waiting time. Results indicate that tugboat operations account for the largest portion of the total costs. Notably, while two-way channels result in lower direct channel costs, they do not always yield the lowest overall expenditure. Among the service strategies evaluated, the First-In–First-Out (FIFO) rule is found to be the most cost-efficient. The results offer practical guidance for port improving the operational efficiency of liquid terminals under complex tidal and resource constraints. Full article

The heating and cooling sector accounts for nearly half of Europe’s energy consumption and remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, emphasizing the urgent need for decarbonization. Simultaneously, the global shift toward renewable energy is accelerating, alongside growing interest in decentralized energy systems where prosumers play a significant role. In this context, district heating and cooling networks, serving nearly 100 million people, are strategically important. In next-generation systems, thermal prosumers can feed-in locally produced or industrial waste heat into the network via bidirectional substations, allowing energy flows in both directions and enhancing system efficiency. The complexity of these networks, with numerous users and interacting heat flows, requires advanced predictive models to manage large volumes of data and multiple variables. This work presents the development of a predictive model based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting excess thermal renewable energy from a bidirectional substation. The numerical model of a substation prototype designed by ENEA provided the physical data for the ANN training. Thirteen years of simulation results, combined with extensive meteorological data from ECMWF, were used to train and to test a multi-step ANN capable of forecasting the six-hour thermal power feed-in horizon using data from the preceding 24 h, improving operational planning and control strategies. The ANN model demonstrates high predictive capability and robustness in replicating thermal power dynamics. Accuracy remains high for horizons up to six hours, with MAE ranging from 279 W to 1196 W, RMSE from 662 W to 3096 W, and R² from 0.992 to 0.823. Overall, the ANN satisfactorily reproduces the behavior of the bidirectional substation even over extended forecasting horizons. Full article

In this paper, the generalized quadratic assignment problem (GQAP) is extended to consider multiple time periods and is called the dynamic GQAP (DGQAP). This problem considers assigning a set of facilities to a set of locations for multiple periods in the planning horizon such that the sum of the transportation, assignment, and reassignment costs is minimized. The facilities may have different space requirements (i.e., unequal areas), and the capacities of the locations may vary during a multi-period planning horizon. Also, multiple facilities may be assigned to each location during each period without violating the capacities of the locations. This research was motivated by the problem of assigning multiple facilities (e.g., equipment) to locations during outages at electric power plants. This paper presents mathematical models, construction algorithms, and two simulated annealing (SA) heuristics for solving the DGQAP problem. The first SA heuristic (SAI) is a direct adaptation of SA to the DGQAP, and the second SA heuristic (SAII) is the same as SAI with a look-ahead/look-back search strategy. In computational experiments, the proposed heuristics are first compared to an exact method on a generated data set of smaller instances (data set 1). Then the proposed heuristics are compared on a generated data set of larger instances (data set 2). For data set 1, the proposed heuristics outperformed a commercial solver (CPLEX) in terms of solution quality and computational time. SAI obtained the best solutions for all the instances, while SAII obtained the best solution for all but one instance. However, for data set 2, SAII obtained the best solution for nineteen of the twenty-four instances, while SAI obtained five of the best solutions. The results highlight the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed heuristics, particularly SAII, for solving the DGQAP. Full article